بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SYY — frequently asked questions
Is Sysco Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, SYY looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 77.5 USD versus our fair value of 86.2 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 109 USD. That implies roughly 11.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives SYY a fair value of 86.2 USD and a potential value of 109 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Sysco Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SYY now?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy. Sysco Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 77.5 USD versus fair value of 86.2 USD; potential value is 109 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SYY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Sysco Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SYY's rating?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 86.2 USD, the potential value of 109 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (77.5 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةBuy
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$77.49
Fair value
$86.19
Potential value
$108.90
As of
2026-10-02
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerating warehouse automation and inventory forecasting accuracy represent the primary upside opportunity, unlocking up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash per day of inventory reduction and expanding consolidated operating margins beyond 3.90% toward 4.0%.
Sysco Corporation presents an 11.23% upside opportunity to an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice Operations, strong cash conversion generating $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow, and inventory productivity initiatives support durable equity value creation.4,6
Downside risks center on cyclical softening in food-away-from-home dining traffic, unhedged inbound freight and fuel cost absorption which reduced Q4 FY2026 gross margin by 17 basis points to 18.7%, and debt service exposure across $14,967,000,000 in total debt. Sysco's computed of 7.0896% reflects debt refinancing requirements over the medium term. Furthermore, International Foodservice of 2.89% ($463,000,000 on $16,042,000,000 ) structurally dilutes domestic profitability until procurement scale matches U.S. levels.
Countering these headwinds, Sysco's core earnings engine in U.S. Foodservice Operations demonstrated durable scale in FY2026, delivering $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating profit (5.98% margin). Core volume growth gained 2.6% in Q4 FY2026 across local and national accounts. Operating cash flow generation reached $2,638,000,000 and free cash flow reached $1,938,000,000 on disciplined capital expenditures of $700,000,000.5,6,7,8
Supply chain productivity initiatives showed measurable progress, with supply chain expenses growing slower than revenue and case volume in FY2026. Outbound fill rates and inventory forecasting accuracy unlock up to $250,000,000 of working capital cash per day of inventory reduction. Concurrently, International Foodservice achieved 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth, providing diversified cash flow streams across Canada ($6,513,000,000) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000).5,8
Valuation synthesis establishes a compositefair value of $86.19 per share, anchored primarily by an enterprise DCF model at $97.82 (35% weight), a forward earnings model at $67.81 (30% weight) based on FY2028 consensus EPS of $5.37 and a 16.0x multiple, discounted earnings at $97.71 (20% weight), owner earnings at $69.06 (10% weight), and multi-stage moat fade at $103.25 (5% weight). At $77.49 as of 2026-10-02, Sysco trades at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, supporting a Buy rating.1,2,4
Dominant Scale and Route Density in U.S. Foodservice
Sysco's U.S. Foodservice division generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income in FY2026, achieving a 5.98% margin and 2.6% case volume growth in Q4 FY2026 through local route clustering and cold-chain scale that smaller peers cannot replicate.5,8
High Free Cash Flow Conversion and Dividend Track Record
Supply chain expenses grew slower than case volume and revenue in FY2026, while advanced forecasting initiatives target up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash release per day of inventory reduction, supporting margin expansion toward 3.90%.5
توصية الدار
We rate Sysco Corporation (SYY) a Buy with a fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. The shares trade at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, underpinned by Sysco's dominant U.S. broadline scale, strong cash conversion exceeding $1.9 billion in free cash flow, and defensible route density.4,6
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Sysco Corporation is the global leader in selling, marketing, and distributing food and non-food products to restaurants, healthcare and educational facilities, lodging establishments, and other customers who prepare meals away from home. In FY2026, the company generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue across its broadline, customized, and international distribution operations.
The company's primary operating division, U.S. Foodservice Operations, generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue (69.5% of consolidated total) and $3,518,000,000 in operating income. International Foodservice Operations contributed $16,042,000,000 in revenue, anchored by operations in Canada ($6,513,000,000), the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000), France ($1,897,000,000), and Sweden ($1,032,000,000). Sysco also operates SYGMA, a customized distribution network for quick-service restaurant chains generating $8,623,000,000 in revenue.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
A severe cyclical downturn in food-away-from-home dining traffic combined with persistent unhedged inbound fuel and wage inflation represents Sysco's primary operational stress scenario. In this event, revenue growth decelerates below 2.50%, and consolidated operating margin contracts from FY2026's 3.66% to below 3.50%. Annual operating cash flow falls below $2,400,000,000 compared to $2,638,000,000 in FY2026, while free cash flow compresses toward $1.5 billion. Simultaneously, higher refinancing yields on Sysco's $14,967,000,000 total debt burden expand WACC from 7.0896% to 8.09%, depressing discounted cash flows. While Sysco's customer diversification across healthcare, educational, and institutional channels provides demand resilience, equity value under these stressed parameters is conditional upon maintaining cost pass-through discipline.
In the bear case, persistent consumer inflation and restaurant traffic softening curb case volume growth while unhedged inbound fuel and freight costs compress operating margins below 3.50%. Elevated debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt restricts free cash flow toward $1.5 billion, and multiple de-rating depresses valuation toward the conditional bear value of $64.74.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Valuation multiple de-rating due to wholesale distributor margin compression and permanent broadline growth slowdown
Sysco trades at a forward P/E of 15.22x against an assumed terminal P/E of 16.0x. A multiple de-rating toward 12.8x (near peer KDP's forward P/E of 11.98x) reduces discounted terminal equity value.3,4
FV impact
-4.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
U.S. Foodservice revenue falling below 65.0% of consolidated revenue signals market share loss in core broadline distribution, diluting route density advantages.
الحالي:69.5%
تنبيه إذا< 65.0%
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Narrow
Sysco holds a narrow economic moat grounded in structural cost advantages from route density and procurement scale, reinforced by efficient scale in regional cold-chain distribution. In FY2026, Sysco generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue, with its flagship U.S. Foodservice Operations contributing $58,803,000,000 (69.5%) in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income at a 5.98% margin. This concentration creates local delivery density that regional competitors cannot duplicate, lowering distribution cost per case.
The company's distribution infrastructure functions as an essential intermediary between thousands of food manufacturers and fragmented foodservice operators. While branded packaged goods suppliers such as CCEP achieve operating margins of 13.40% and gross margins of 35.57%, Sysco operates on high-turnover distributor unit economics with a 3.66% operating margin and an 18.5% gross margin. Customers relying on white-glove multi-temperature delivery face meaningful operational switching costs.
Geographic diversification through International Foodservice Operations adds scale across Canada ($6,513,000,000 revenue) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000 revenue). Although international operating margins of 2.89% ($463,000,000 operating income on $16,042,000,000 revenue) currently lag domestic levels, 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth reflect progressive operational maturation.
الربح الاقتصادي
Sysco generates consistent economic profit across business cycles. ROIC of 15.26% exceeds its computed WACC of 7.0896% and cost of equity of 7.9790%, producing an economic spread over 800 basis points. In FY2026, Sysco generated $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow on $700,000,000 of capital expenditure, validating durable cash compounding well above its cost of capital.2,6,7
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Distribution Route Density and Inbound Procurement Scale — Sysco's scale across $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue and $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice Operations generates unmatched route clustering, lowering delivery cost per case and securing supplier volume rebates.Wide
02Efficient Scale in Regional Cold-Chain Logistics — Replicating Sysco's nationwide network of temperature-controlled distribution centers and dedicated delivery fleets requires prohibitive capital investment in an industry operating at 3.66% operating margins.Wide
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Unhedged Inbound Logistics and Fuel Cost Inflation
medium
12-24 months
Management monitors inbound freight and implements contract cost-plus pricing adjustments and supply chain expense productivity.5
Food-Away-From-Home Demand Contraction from Macroeconomic Softening
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
86.01 US$
86.12 US$
86.19 US$
86.26 US$
86.35 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 7 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($86.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.2B after modeled reinvestment of $304.1M, with terminal value at 83.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base case, Sysco compounds steadily as North America's leading broadline foodservice distributor. Core U.S. Foodservice Operations maintain route density and commercial momentum, growing case volumes at 2.5-3.0% annually. Supply chain expense productivity keeps cost inflation below top-line growth, allowing consolidated operating margin to expand from 3.66% to 3.90% by FY2031. Free cash flow conversion remains above $1.9 billion annually, supporting steady dividend growth, balanced reinvestment, and gradual deleveraging toward the base intrinsic fair value of $86.19.5,6
Inventory forecasting accuracy and warehouse automation unlock $250 million per inventory day in working capital cash.5
§7 شجرة قرارات الأرباحEN
تجاوز
Upgrade the rating; Consider expanding position sizing toward upper policy limits if local case volume growth accelerates and operating margin expands.
Maintain Buy; Maintain current target position weighting; monitor quarterly working capital release and inventory days.
المُحفِّز: Diluted EPS between $1.05 and $1.10, Revenue between $21,543,600,000 and $21,816,765,000
Results aligning with consensus expectations confirm steady 2.5-3.0% volume growth and cost pass-through without altering the baseline compounding trajectory.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental additions, reassess local restaurant dining traffic indicators, and examine inbound freight cost absorption.
Cash flow conversion is robust. FY2026 operating cash flow was $2,638,000,000, while capital expenditures were $700,000,000, yielding free cash flow of $1,938,000,000 and an FCF conversion rate of 110.3% relative to net income of $1,757,000,000. D&A of $976,000,000 exceeds capex, confirming modest maintenance capital intensity.6,7
تخصيص رأس المال
Management prioritizes debt deleveraging, dividend continuity, and targeted M&A. Sysco holds $1,786,000,000 in cash against $14,967,000,000 in total debt. The company maintains its 57-year track record of dividend increases (Dividend Aristocrat) with an annual dividend run rate of $2.20 per share. Management paused share buybacks to preserve balance sheet strength during pending acquisitions like Restaurant Depot.
Sysco produced $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in in FY2026, with inventory forecasting initiatives targeting $250,000,000 of cash unlock per inventory day.
أحدث إيرادات84.6 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +4.8%
هامش التشغيل3.7%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر1.9 مليار US$FY2026
صافي الدين13.2 مليار US$FY2026
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات22.1 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−18 مليار US$إجمالي الربح4.1 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−3.2 مليار US$الدخل التشغيلي984 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−432 مليون US$صافي الدخل552 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
22,124,000,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
17,990,000,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
4,134,000,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
3,150,000,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
984,000,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-432,000,000 US$
صافي الدخل
552,000,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول28.4 مليار US$النقد1.8 مليار US$الأصول المتداولة13.4 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات25.7 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة10.5 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين2.7 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
28,397,000,000 US$
النقد
1,786,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
13,437,000,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
25,731,000,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
10,523,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
2,666,000,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل1.8 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+976 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+118 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−213 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي2.6 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة1.3 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+2.6 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−696 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−1.2 مليار US$تأثير سعر الصرف−14 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة2.1 مليار US$
2.6 مليار US$ − 700 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 1.9 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
1,757,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
2,851,000,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
976,000,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
118,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
2,638,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
213,000,000 US$
النقد المتاح
3,986,000,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
1,348,000,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
696,000,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
700,000,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
1,159,000,000 US$
صافي إصدار الدين
81,000,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
200,000,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
1,037,000,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
3,000,000 US$
تأثير سعر الصرف
14,000,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
2,117,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-696,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-1,159,000,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-06-27.
84.6 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
U.S.Foodservice Operations58.8 مليار US$69.5%+3.2% على أساس سنوي
International Foodservice Operations16 مليار US$19%+7.6% على أساس سنوي
Sygma8.6 مليار US$10.2%+2.5% على أساس سنوي
All Other Segments1.1 مليار US$1.3%−0.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
U.S.Foodservice Operations
58.8 مليار US$
69.5%
3.2%
International Foodservice Operations
16 مليار US$
19%
7.6%
Sygma
8.6 مليار US$
10.2%
2.5%
All Other Segments
1.1 مليار US$
1.3%
-0.5%
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-06-27.
84.6 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة
United States68.1 مليار US$80.6%+3.1% على أساس سنوي
Canada6.5 مليار US$7.7%+6.5% على أساس سنوي
United Kingdom4.5 مليار US$5.3%+9.9% على أساس سنوي
Other Geographic Areas2.5 مليار US$3%+1.1% على أساس سنوي
France1.9 مليار US$2.2%+10.7% على أساس سنوي
Sweden1 مليار US$1.2%+14.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
United States
68.1 مليار US$
80.6%
3.1%
Canada
6.5 مليار US$
7.7%
6.5%
United Kingdom
4.5 مليار US$
5.3%
9.9%
Other Geographic Areas
2.5 مليار US$
3%
1.1%
France
1.9 مليار US$
2.2%
10.7%
Sweden
1 مليار US$
1.2%
14.5%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Sysco Corporation (SYY) trades at 15.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.2x compares with a peer median of 16.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Mondelez International Inc., Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC and Monster Beverage Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Expansion
Because industry-level capacity, supply, lead-time, and capital-intensity benchmarks are unavailable in the source data, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Sysco reinvested $700,000,000 in capex in FY2026 against $976,000,000 in depreciation and amortization, maintaining disciplined maintenance capital allocation.7
دورة صعودية
Acceleration in consumer food-away-from-home spending boosts restaurant foot traffic and broadline case volume growth, enabling Sysco to leverage warehouse and route density to expand operating margins toward 3.90%.
دورة هبوطية
Macroeconomic pressures or persistent inflation reduce discretionary restaurant dining, slowing case volume growth below 2.50% and compressing distributor gross margins as unhedged inbound freight costs rise.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Shift to Prepared Food and Dining Out
positive
Long-term consumer preference for prepared meals and dining out supports steady baseline broadline volume growth across restaurant and hospitality channels.
Logistics and Cold-Chain Consolidation
positive
Stringent cold-chain regulatory requirements, high warehouse automation costs, and driver availability favor scale players like Sysco with unmatched route density over fragmented regional operators.
التموضع
Sysco is the dominant broadline foodservice distributor in North America, with $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice revenue and $16,042,000,000 in International Foodservice revenue. Its route density, customer breadth across restaurants and institutions, and purchasing scale insulate it from food manufacturer peer models.3,5,8
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
3-5%
A 3-5% target weighting is appropriate for Sysco as a defensive mature compounder generating $84.55B revenue and $1.94B in free cash flow, with 11.23% upside to fair value of $86.19, balanced against balance sheet leverage of $14.97B debt.4,6,7
المخاطر
Risk management focuses on monitoring food-away-from-home customer demand, fuel cost volatility, and refinancing conditions for Sysco's $14,967,000,000 debt load. The position should be sized between 3-5% of total portfolio assets, with regular adherence to quarterly checkpoints governing operating margin, cash flow conversion, and domestic revenue share.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
$76.00 - $78.00
Initiate primary core position
Trading at $77.49 as of 2026-10-02 represents a 10.09% discount to intrinsic fair value of $86.19 and trades at an attractive forward P/E of 15.22x.
$71.00 - $74.00
Add to position on cyclical pullbacks
شرائح الخروج
المستوى
إجراء
$86.00 - $88.00
Trim position by 25-30% as shares converge with base casefair value of $86.19.
$98.00 - $105.00
Substantially trim or exit position as shares approach the upper boundary of intrinsic valuation ($108.90).
Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice ($58,803,000,000 revenue) and route density sustain a 15.26% ROIC that reliably exceeds the 7.0896% computed WACC.2,8
We recommend a Buy rating on Sysco Corporation (SYY) with an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Sysco's dominant route density in U.S. Foodservice Operations ($58,803,000,000 FY2026 revenue) and robust $1,938,000,000 free cash flow provide reliable earnings compounding at a 10.09% price discount to intrinsic value.4,6,8
While macroeconomic pressures on restaurant dining foot traffic and debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt warrant disciplined monitoring, supply chain productivity improvements and working capital optimization unlocking up to $250,000,000 per inventory day offer tangible support for operating margin expansion toward 3.90%.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Sustained higher interest rate environment and debt refinancing yield spike
Sysco carries $14,967,000,000 in total debt with computed WACC of 7.0896%. A 100 bps expansion in WACC to 8.09% driven by refinancing yields on debt maturities impairs discounted equity value.2,4
FV impact
-15.7%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
operating_cash_flow
Trailing operating cash flow dropping below $2,400,000,000 indicates supply chain cost inflation and working capital inventory buildup, impairing FCFF conversion.
الحالي:$2,638,000,000
تنبيه إذا< $2,400,000,000
03
international_operating_margin
International operating margin falling below 2.50% confirms structural profitability drag from non-U.S. broadline operations, requiring downward revisions to consolidated EBIT margins.
الحالي:2.89%
تنبيه إذا< 2.50%
04
gross_margin
Gross margin falling below 17.5% signals loss of contract cost-plus markup discipline against upstream food suppliers and unhedged fuel inflation.
الحالي:18.5%
تنبيه إذا< 17.5%
05
operating_margin
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 3.50% demonstrates that route density efficiencies are failing to offset warehouse labor and transportation inflation, threatening baseline operating profit.
الحالي:3.66%
تنبيه إذا< 3.50%
03
Switching Costs and Mission-Critical Operational Integration — Independent and chain restaurants depend on Sysco's broadline SKU breadth and delivery reliability, making vendor substitution disruptive to kitchen operations.
Moderate
high
12-18 months
Customer diversification across healthcare, educational institutions, and government facilities cushions cyclical restaurant dining contraction.7,8
International Segment Profitability Lag and Integration Friction
low
24-36 months
Procurement harmonization and route density expansion across Canada and Europe narrow the margin gap with domestic operations.5,8
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (21.26 US$) plus discounted terminal value (104 US$) minus signed per current share (27.49 US$) equals the 97.82 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the bull case, accelerated adoption of inventory forecasting and warehouse automation releases substantial working capital cash, while international foodservice margins converge toward domestic levels. Operating margins surpass 4.00% and EPS compounding accelerates toward 8.5% annually, enabling rapid balance sheet deleveraging, resumption of share repurchases, and multiple expansion toward the upper valuation boundary of $108.90.5
لماذا يهم
Decoupling supply chain expenses from revenue and case volume growth is critical to expanding operating margins toward 3.90%.5
Provides internal liquidity to fund debt service, support dividend growth, and maintain a reinvestment rate of 12% to 15% of NOPAT without dilutive financing.
U.S. Foodservice Operations achieved a 5.98% operating margin ($3,518,000,000 operating income on $58,803,000,000 revenue), while consolidated operating margin was 3.66% on $84,553,000,000 revenue.
The domestic business remains the engine of earnings, absorbing cost pressures from fuel and labor while supporting international expansion.
International Profitability Lag Caps Consolidated Margin Expansion
International Foodservice revenue reached $16,042,000,000, but operating profit of $463,000,000 yielded a 2.89% margin, substantially below domestic profitability.
Until European procurement scale matures, international growth offers top-line diversification but dilutes consolidated margins, capping near-term EBIT margin expansion at 3.70% to 3.90%.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCCCEP
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة115.74 US$Report-date price91.86 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار64 / 100
Monster Beverage CorporationMNST
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة36.58 US$Report-date price41.98 US$
