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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
T — frequently asked questions
Is AT&T Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, T looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 25.5 USD versus our fair value of 28.1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 38.5 USD. That implies roughly 10.4% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives T a fair value of 28.1 USD and a potential value of 38.5 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for AT&T Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy T now?
Our latest published rating for T, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold. AT&T Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 25.5 USD versus fair value of 28.1 USD; potential value is 38.5 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for T?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents AT&T Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is T's rating?
Our latest published rating for T, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 28.1 USD, the potential value of 38.5 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (25.5 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةHold
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$25.45
Fair value
$28.10
Potential value
$38.48
As of
2026-09-21
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerating fiber broadband passings and converged mobile bundling that expands Advanced Connectivity revenue above 5% while lowering postpaid churn, unlocking multiple expansion toward Potential value of $38.48.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Intensified promotional discounting and device subsidies by wireless rivals and cable operators that push consolidated operating margin below 18.00%.
We rate AT&T a Hold. At the report-date price of $25.45 on 2026-09-21, the shares trade at a modest discount to our Fair value of $28.10, offering stable dividend income but limited capital appreciation.2
Our Hold rating indicates that existing investors should maintain their positions to capture dividend yield while new capital should wait for a wider margin of safety. AT&T is a mature telecommunications provider focused on steady cash flow rather than rapid business expansion.
On the analysis date of 2026-09-21, the stock was priced at $25.45. This sits 9.4% below our of $28.10, with reaching $38.48 under accelerated network convergence.
The primary risk to this thesis is intensified promotional competition from wireless rivals and cable operators. If AT&T is forced to expand handset subsidies to protect subscribers, consolidated operating margins would drop below 18.00%. That would compress annual free cash flow below $18.0B, impairing debt de-leveraging on $134.7B in total debt.2,4,5
The clearest path to outperformance is accelerated adoption of converged fiber broadband and mobile bundles. Dual-product customers churn less and generate higher monthly revenue, which lifts service revenue growth above 5% and expands cash profit toward our Potential value of $38.48.3
Broadband Fiber Convergence and Churn Reduction
Expanding fiber footprint and mobile bundling lower customer churn while lifting average revenue per account across converged subscriber cohorts.3
Reported free cash flow of $19.4B covers annual dividend payments of $8.2B, funding disciplined balance sheet de-leveraging and share repurchases.4
Efficient Scale and Network Density
AT&T operates nationwide wireless infrastructure and dense fiber passings that cannot be replicated economically by new entrants.3
توصية الدار
We rate AT&T a Hold because steady dividend yield and $19.4B in free cash flow are balanced by domestic wireless saturation and elevated debt service costs.4
نظرة عامة على الشركة
AT&T INC. offers a comprehensive range of high-quality nationwide wireless voice and data communications services in a variety of pricing plans to meet the communications needs of targeted customer categories. Through FirstNet® services, the company also provides a nationwide wireless broadband network dedicated to public safety. AT&T INC. is a leading provider of telecommunications and technology services globally.
The services and products that the company offers vary by market and utilize various technology platforms in a range of geographies. Its reportable segments are organized as follows:
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
Under a combined stress scenario of promotional pricing pressure, higher refinancing yields on total debt, and fiber deployment bottlenecks, annual free cash flow would contract toward debt service requirements, halting share repurchases and testing the lower bound of intrinsic value.
Revenue contraction in the core Communications unit would indicate accelerating subscriber churn and broadband share loss to cable or wireless competitors, undermining the foundational cash engine needed to support network reinvestment and debt service.
الحالي:$120,896M in FY2025
تنبيه إذاDrops below $120,000M on a trailing twelve month basis
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Narrow
AT&T maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in efficient scale across nationwide mobile spectrum and dense metropolitan fiber networks. These physical connectivity assets require prohibitive capital outlays to duplicate, creating durable structural advantages that insulate the core communications franchise.
Switching costs are reinforced through converged broadband and wireless offerings, where dual-product households exhibit lower churn and higher customer lifetime value. However, the moat is bounded as price competition from peers limits pricing power outside the fiber footprint.
01Efficient Scale and Network Density — AT&T operates nationwide wireless infrastructure and dense fiber passings that cannot be replicated economically by new entrants.Wide
02High Customer Switching Costs via Convergence — Converged broadband and mobile bundles deliver accretive lifetime value and significantly lower customer churn rates.Moderate
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Aggressive Mobile and Broadband Bundling by Cable MVNOs
medium
12 to 24 months
Deploying symmetrical gigabit fiber broadband to offer superior network quality that cable hybrid architectures cannot match.3
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
§5 الحساسية
معدل الخصم
النمو النهائي
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
4.8%
$30.95
$31.89
$33.11
$34.76
$37.14
5.8%
$28.84
$29.41
$30.13
$31.03
$32.20
6.8%
$27.25
$27.64
$28.10
$28.66
$29.34
7.8%
$25.98
$26.26
$26.58
$26.95
$27.40
8.8%
$24.93
$25.14
$25.37
$25.63
$25.94
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
تغير المدة (سنوات)
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.10). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The central case targets $28.10 representing an expected return of 10.4% at 60.0% probability. This outcome reflects steady low single-digit revenue growth, durable operating margins near nineteen percent, and predictable cash flow generation supporting dividends and buybacks.
Capital returns in FY2025 included $8,180M in common dividends and $4,500M in share repurchases. Management plans total distributions of approximately $18,000M in FY2026, balancing debt reduction against share buybacks at favorable market valuations.
Network modernization is sustained without requiring elevated capital intensity that would compromise liquidity.
Ongoing Balance Sheet De-leveraging
Total debt stood at $134,718M at year-end FY2025 down from prior peaks.
Continued debt paydown insulates the equity against elevated benchmark interest rates.
أحدث إيرادات125.6 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +13.9%
هامش التشغيل19.2%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر19.4 مليار US$FY2025
صافي الدين116.5 مليار US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات31.6 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−12 مليار US$إجمالي الربح19.5 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−12.5 مليار US$الدخل التشغيلي7 مليار US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−2.4 مليار US$صافي الدخل4.6 مليار US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
31,558,000,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
12,047,000,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
19,511,000,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
12,473,000,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
7,038,000,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-2,411,000,000 US$
صافي الدخل
4,627,000,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول420.2 مليار US$النقد18.2 مليار US$الأصول المتداولة48.7 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات291.7 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة53.8 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين126.5 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
420,198,000,000 US$
النقد
18,234,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
48,732,000,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
291,706,000,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
53,780,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
126,491,000,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل22 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+20.9 مليار US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−2.6 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي40.3 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة3.4 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+40.3 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−18.8 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−6.4 مليار US$النقد في نهاية الفترة18.5 مليار US$
40.3 مليار US$ − 20.8 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الحر 19.4 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
21,953,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
42,839,000,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
20,886,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
40,284,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
2,555,000,000 US$
النقد المتاح
43,690,000,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
3,406,000,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
18,777,000,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
6,386,000,000 US$
صافي إصدار الدين
8,499,000,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
4,500,000,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
8,180,000,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
2,205,000,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
18,527,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-18,777,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-6,386,000,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
125.6 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
Communications120.9 مليار US$96.2%+2.8% على أساس سنوي
Latin America Business4.4 مليار US$3.5%+3.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-09 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Communications
120.9 مليار US$
96.2%
2.8%
Latin America Business
4.4 مليار US$
3.5%
3.5%
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
125.6 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة
United States120.2 مليار US$95.7%+2.9% على أساس سنوي
Mexico4.4 مليار US$3.5%+3.3% على أساس سنوي
Asia Pacific395 مليون US$0.3%−14.5% على أساس سنوي
Europe382 مليون US$0.3%−13.4% على أساس سنوي
All Other Geographical Areas114 مليون US$0.1%−1.7% على أساس سنوي
Region Of Latin America And Caribbean110 مليون US$0.1%−26.2% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-09 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
United States
120.2 مليار US$
95.7%
2.9%
Mexico
4.4 مليار US$
3.5%
3.3%
Asia Pacific
395 مليون US$
0.3%
-14.5%
Europe
382 مليون US$
0.3%
-13.4%
All Other Geographical Areas
114 مليون US$
0.1%
-1.7%
Region Of Latin America And Caribbean
110 مليون US$
0.1%
-26.2%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
AT&T Inc. (T) trades at 10.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 8.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: T-Mobile US Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., The Walt Disney Company and Comcast Corporation, as of 2026-09-21.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Contraction
Industry capital expenditure to depreciation stands at 1.05x with capex to revenue at 0.9%, indicating disciplined reinvestment following peak 5G outlays.
دورة صعودية
Broadband demand growth, enterprise uptake of high-capacity connectivity for generative AI workloads, and rational industry promotional behavior expand average revenue per user.
دورة هبوطية
Saturated wireless penetration, aggressive cable mobile discounting, and rising equipment subsidies compress industry margins and lengthen capital recovery cycles.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Fiber and 5G Fixed-Mobile Convergence
positive
Consumer demand for bundled gigabit fiber and mobile connectivity enhances customer stickiness and lifts consolidated household revenue.
Enterprise Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Traffic Growth
positive
Rising enterprise adoption of agentic AI drives increased demand for robust upstream network capacity and high-throughput fiber connectivity.
Legacy Wireline Voice and Data Decay
negative
Structural migration away from copper wireline services creates an ongoing top-line headwind that partially offsets broadband gains.
التموضع
AT&T holds a strong incumbent position in core domestic wireless and fiber broadband, prioritizing converged relationships and profitable market share over volume chasing.3
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
2-4%
Appropriate for income-focused portfolios seeking steady dividend yield and modest capital appreciation without excessive operational volatility.
المخاطر
Limit total portfolio allocation to 4% to manage sector concentration and monitor debt maturities against organic cash generation.
AT&T provides dependable dividend income supported by $19.4B in free cash flow, though capital appreciation is constrained by mature market growth.4
Total Return Investors
Hold
At $25.45 on 2026-09-21, the stock trades at a modest 9.4% discount to Fair value of $28.10, offering balanced risk-reward rather than a compelling mispricing.2
Value and Defensive Investors
Hold
High balance sheet debt of $134.7B and peer discounting from T-Mobile warrant discipline, keeping shares at a Hold until deeper margin of safety emerges.2
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
احتفاظ
We maintain a Hold rating on AT&T with a Fair value of $28.10 against the report-date price of $25.45 on 2026-09-21.2
The shares offer an attractive dividend yield covered by $19.4B in free cash flow, but upside is bounded by saturated domestic wireless competition and debt refinancing costs.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Aggressive promotional discounting and device subsidies by peers drive a 300 bps contraction in operating margin.
Intensified device subsidies and promotional price competition from wireless and cable rivals compress operating margins across the subscriber base.
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Terminal exit multiple derates by 20% toward cable peer multiples due to high debt load and secular wireline decay.
Persistent debt leverage and ongoing revenue erosion in legacy business wireline cause the terminal exit multiple to compress toward cable peer levels.
Margin compression indicates that aggressive promotional spending and handset subsidies are failing to generate accretive customer lifetime value, reducing operating profit and impairing the company's ability to maintain earnings stability.
الحالي:19.23% in FY2025
تنبيه إذاDeclines below 18.00% across any two consecutive fiscal quarters
Higher capital intensity without commensurate broadband subscriber acceleration signals inflation in fiber buildout costs and construction delays, constraining discretionary cash flow conversion and stalling the multi-year balance sheet de-leveraging trajectory.
الحالي:$20,842M in FY2025
تنبيه إذاExceeds 20.0% of consolidated revenue over any fiscal year
Cash generation below management target eliminates headroom above committed shareholder distributions, forcing management to curtail planned share repurchases or increase borrowing to fund ongoing network densification and debt maturities.
الحالي:$19,442M in FY2025
تنبيه إذاFalls below $18,000M on a full-year reported basis
05
Ten-Year Benchmark Refinancing Rate
Elevated benchmark borrowing yields directly increase the cost of refinancing maturing debt tranches across the company's substantial debt load, driving higher net interest expense and eroding net earnings available to common equity.
الحالي:4.94% as of 2026-09-21
تنبيه إذاSustained above 5.50% over a rolling six month window
medium
Ongoing through FY2027
Focusing retention incentives on premium converged fiber households rather than engaging in destructive broad market price wars.3
Limitation: Terminal value is 77.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
The upside case targets $38.48 with an expected return of 51.2% at 20.0% probability. This trajectory requires accelerated fiber subscriber additions, margin expansion from enterprise artificial intelligence connectivity, and multiple expansion as debt levels decline.
