بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TYL — frequently asked questions
Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-12, TYL trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 340 USD versus our fair value of 324 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 412 USD. That implies roughly 4.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-12, gives TYL a fair value of 324 USD and a potential value of 412 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TYL now?
Our latest published rating for TYL, analyzed 2026-10-12, is Hold. Tyler Technologies, Inc. trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 340 USD versus fair value of 324 USD; potential value is 412 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TYL?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-12 documents Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TYL's rating?
Our latest published rating for TYL, analyzed 2026-10-12, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 324 USD, the potential value of 412 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (340 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةHold
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$339.87
Fair value
$323.81
Potential value
$411.90
As of
2026-10-12
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Tyler's biggest opportunity lies in accelerating the migration of its vast on-premise municipal customer base to cloud-native SaaS on AWS, targeting 85% conversion by 2030.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Prolonged municipal IT procurement cycles and customer inertia deferring cloud migration milestones.
We maintain a Hold rating on Tyler Technologies Inc. at a share price of USD 339.87 as of October 12, 2026, as the stock trades near our Fair value of USD 323.81, balancing unmatched public-sector competitive insulation against ongoing cloud migration dual-hosting friction.4
Our rating is Hold, indicating that ordinary investors should maintain existing positions rather than deploy new capital at current valuations. Tyler's business fundamentals remain exceptionally sturdy, but the current market valuation already reflects its predictable public-sector market dominance, leaving limited near-term valuation upside for new equity commitments.
At the report preparation price of USD 339.87 as of October 12, 2026, the stock trades at a 4.96% premium to our Fair value of USD 323.81, representing an implied return of -4.73%. Our valuation range is bounded at the upper end by a Potential value of USD 411.90, which requires flawless cloud migration acceleration and outsized to materialize.
The primary risk that could impair our investment thesis is prolonged dual-hosting cloud migration friction and municipal deal slippage,. If public sector procurement inertia delays on-premise client transitions to AWS, Tyler will be forced to incur duplicate hosting and operational expenses for longer, compressing operating margins below management's guided 100 bps annual expansion trajectory,.5,7
Conversely, the principal operational engine supporting long-term compounding is Tyler's dominant enterprise software base, which generated $1,694.42M in FY2025 revenue and achieved 21.7% SaaS growth with record bookings in Q2 2026,. As recurring cloud subscriptions compound and legacy data center costs eventually roll off, cash generation will accelerate, supporting intrinsic per-share value compounding over time.5,8
Irreplaceable Public Sector Moat and Mission-Critical Workflows
Tyler's core public sector software automates essential municipal ERP, court administration, and public safety operations, resulting in over 98% client retention and exceptional top-line revenue predictability.5
Accelerating migration from on-premise maintenance to cloud SaaS expands contract value by 1.5x to 2.0x, driving 21.7% SaaS growth in Q2 2026 and supporting a guided ~100 bps annual margin leverage path,.5
High Switching Costs in Municipal Core Systems
Enterprise software generated $1,694.42M (72.6% of FY2025 revenue), serving core municipal administration, courts, and public safety across thousands of local government entities with over 98% client logo retention. Ripping and replacing these deeply integrated mission-critical public records systems carries prohibitive regulatory, operational, and political costs.5,8
توصية الدار
Hold: Tyler Technologies trades at a 4.96% premium to our Fair value of USD 323.81, fully reflecting its public sector dominance while dual-hosting cloud migration costs constrain near-term margin acceleration.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Tyler Technologies Inc. provides an extensive suite of software systems and digital services designed specifically for public sector entities, including cities, counties, states, public schools, and judicial courts. Its offerings automate vital administrative workflows such as financial management, municipal enterprise resource planning, property appraisal, judicial case tracking, and emergency public safety dispatch.
The company operates through two primary reportable segments: Enterprise Software and Platform Technologies,. Enterprise Software serves municipal departments with deeply embedded operational applications, while Platform Technologies delivers state-level citizen engagement portals, secure transaction payment infrastructure, and data exchange services.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
Our stress test evaluates the combined impact of prolonged municipal procurement cycles and stubborn dual-hosting cloud migration friction. Under this joint stress scenario, municipal budget constraints compress annual organic revenue growth by 5 percentage points against the 9.42%-10.04% consensus trajectory,, while extended on-premise maintenance and AWS duplicate infrastructure costs contract operating margins below 14.0%. Furthermore, should market sentiment derate Tyler's 23.7x forward P/E multiple toward peer medians (~15.7x-16.4x), equity compounding would stall, demonstrating that current share prices leave little margin for operational or procurement execution missteps.
The Bear scenario models the operational risks where municipal procurement timelines face extended delays, local government budget constraints trigger contract deferrals, and dual-running on-premise and cloud infrastructure costs persist longer than expected. Under these conditions, revenue growth slows and operating margins fail to expand, compressing per-share cash generation. We describe this downside path qualitatively without placing a competing target price beside our house Fair value.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Municipal IT Budget Freeze and Cloud Migration Stagnation
Deal slippage across municipal jurisdictions is already common, and unmandated state digital contracts start at a meager $2M ARR. If municipal budget constraints freeze RFP decisions, revenue growth drops by 5pp over 5 years against the current 9.42%-10.04% consensus path.5
FV impact
-3.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Dual-Hosting Cost Inflation and Public Sector Competitive Margin Squeeze
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Tyler Technologies commands a Wide economic moat anchored by irreplaceable structural switching costs and extensive public sector distribution networks across municipal, county, and state agencies. The company's Enterprise Software segment delivered $1,694.42M in FY2025 revenue, representing 72.6% of consolidated sales. Local government clients rely on Tyler for core ERP, financial management, property taxation, court administration, and public safety dispatch. Because these systems house permanent statutory records and execute mandatory daily public operations, replacing them requires complex data migrations, staff retraining, and extensive voter and council approvals, keeping annual logo retention consistently above 98%.
The durability of Tyler's moat is further reinforced by its Platform Technologies segment, which generated $628.55M in FY2025 revenue. By combining digital payment engines, citizen portals, and enterprise administrative databases, Tyler creates a unified Connected Communities ecosystem that point-solution competitors cannot replicate. This platform breadth enables cross-selling between local and state agencies, unlocking long-term multi-million dollar ARR expansions as state digital service mandates ramp from initial $2M run rates toward $10M-$20M. Consequently, Tyler sustains high economic profit spreads over its 8.83% WACC, fully justifying our 15-year competitive advantage horizon.
الربح الاقتصادي
Tyler generates returns on invested capital well in excess of its 8.83% WACC, driven by asset-light physical operations requiring just $16.02M in FY2025 CapEx alongside $637.53M in free cash flow. This persistent spread between economic returns and cost of capital supports a 15-year moat horizon.2,6,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs in Municipal Core Systems — Enterprise software generated $1,694.42M (72.6% of FY2025 revenue), serving core municipal administration, courts, and public safety across thousands of local government entities with over 98% client logo retention. Ripping and replacing these deeply integrated mission-critical public records systems carries prohibitive regulatory, operational, and political costs.Wide
02Cross-Division Platform Breadth and State Government Distribution — Platform Technologies delivered $628.55M in FY2025 revenue, creating an integrated Connected Communities architecture that links municipal ERP with state-level portals and payments, as demonstrated by the Mississippi Department of Health enterprise agreement and state digital mandate ramps from $2M to $10M-$20M ARR. Point-solution competitors cannot match this cross-division footprint.
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Dual-Hosting Operating Expense Inefficiencies During Cloud Migration
medium
24 to 36 months
Management offers transitional pricing incentives, cloud-only feature rollouts, and the cloud living release model to motivate customer migrations to AWS, maintaining an 85% cloud conversion target for the 2023 maintenance base by 2030.5
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
309.77 US$
318.17 US$
323.81 US$
329.48 US$
338.06 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 10 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($323.81). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $307.6M after modeled reinvestment of $41.9M, with terminal value at 78.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Stable municipal client retention and contract renewal rates
In the Base case, which carries an assigned probability of 60.0%, Tyler delivers on consensus expectations with steady recurring revenue growth and guided operating margin expansion. Under these operating conditions, the shares project a target of $323.81, delivering an implied return of -4.7% compared to $339.87. This path is supported by steady cloud migration of the installed municipal base and cross-selling between enterprise software and platform technologies.
An acceleration in SaaS conversion and faster elimination of duplicate data center hosting expenses would indicate that operating leverage is materializing sooner than anticipated, expanding per-share earnings power toward $411.90.
متوافق
Maintain Hold; Maintain existing allocation weight while tracking quarterly SaaS bookings and AWS cloud migration milestones.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly results align with consensus revenue expectations and the guided annual operating margin expansion pace
Performance meeting guided targets confirms the multi-year compounder thesis while the share price trades near $323.81, confirming our Hold stance at $339.87.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Re-examine cloud migration progress and consider reducing portfolio exposure if public sector procurement delays extend across consecutive quarters.
المُحفِّز: Municipal procurement delays cause revenue deceleration while dual-hosting AWS expenses contract operating margins
Slippage in municipal migrations coupled with persistent dual-hosting expenses would impair operating leverage, delaying cash flow compounding and pressuring forward valuation multiples.
جودة الأرباح
Tyler Technologies exhibits robust earnings quality underpinned by strong cash conversion, predictable subscription revenue, and conservative accounting practices. Free cash flow conversion remains exceptionally healthy, supported by upfront municipal billing schedules and minimal physical capital expenditure requirements,. Working capital needs are modest, balance sheet liquidity is pristine with negative net debt, and revenue predictability is anchored by long-term government contracts with near-zero gross churn. The absence of aggressive capitalization policies or volatile accruals ensures that reported earnings represent genuine operational cash flow generation.5
زخم التقديرات
Consensus estimate cohorts for upcoming fiscal year revenue and diluted earnings per share remained flat following the recent quarterly earnings event. Sell-side contributors reiterated existing forecast paths, reflecting confidence in Tyler's multi-year SaaS conversion roadmap while acknowledging that dual-hosting costs keep the margin expansion pace aligned with management guidance rather than accelerating,.5
Cash generation is a foundational strength of Tyler Technologies. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $653.54M, translating into $637.53M in free cash flow after deducting $16.02M in capital expenditures,,. Free cash flow conversion exceeded 200% of GAAP net income ($315.60M), aided by deferred revenue growth from upfront SaaS subscription billings and low physical maintenance requirements. In the second quarter of 2026, Tyler continued this trajectory by reporting record second quarter free cash flow.5,6,7
تخصيص رأس المال
Tyler exhibits a disciplined, opportunistic capital allocation strategy backed by a strong balance sheet with negative of -$497.54M. of $653.54M in FY2025 funded modest internal of $16.02M, leaving substantial surplus capital. Tyler does not distribute regular dividends. Instead, capital is deployed across tuck-in M&A—such as the acquisition of For The Record to bolster courts leadership —and opportunistic share repurchases when valuation discounts emerge.
Tyler's return on invested capital has been steadily improving as high-margin SaaS subscriptions replace upfront licenses and operating income expands from $357.68M in FY2025 alongside guided 100 bps annual margin leverage. Asset-light physical operations ensure that incremental revenue drops efficiently to operating cash flow.
Tyler's ROIC comfortably exceeds its 8.83% WACC, driven by dominant municipal market share and minimal tangible reinvestment requirements ($16.02M FY2025 CapEx). As cloud conversions mature and duplicate data center hosting expenses wind down toward 2030, economic value added is projected to widen further.
أحدث إيرادات2.3 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +13.3%
هامش التشغيل15.3%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر637.5 مليون US$FY2025
صافي النقد497.5 مليون US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات2.3 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−1.2 مليار US$إجمالي الربح1.1 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−726 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي357.7 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−42.1 مليون US$صافي الدخل315.6 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
2,332,340,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
1,248,640,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
1,083,700,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
726,024,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
357,676,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-42,073,000 US$
صافي الدخل
315,603,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول5.6 مليار US$النقد1 مليار US$الأصول المتداولة1.8 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات1.9 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة1.8 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين3.7 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
5,638,908,000 US$
النقد
1,015,400,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
1,843,888,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
1,936,119,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
1,755,445,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
3,702,789,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل315.6 مليون US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+138.4 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+151.3 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى+48.3 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي653.5 مليون US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة744.7 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+653.5 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−222.5 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−160.4 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة1 مليار US$
653.5 مليون US$ − 16 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 637.5 مليون US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
315,603,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
653,543,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
138,358,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
151,276,000 US$
تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى
48,306,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
653,543,000 US$
النقد المتاح
1,398,264,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
744,721,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
222,494,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
16,015,000 US$
أنشطة استثمارية أخرى
206,479,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
160,370,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
1,015,400,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-222,494,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-160,370,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
2.3 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
Enterprise Software1.7 مليار US$72.6%+12.1% على أساس سنوي
Platform Technologies628.6 مليون US$26.9%+1.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Enterprise Software
1.7 مليار US$
72.6%
12.1%
Platform Technologies
628.6 مليون US$
26.9%
1.5%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL) trades at 23.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 30.5x compares with a peer median of 15.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Fair Isaac Corporation, Roper Technologies Inc., Paychex Inc. and PTC Inc., as of 2026-10-12.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Expansion
Broader software industry capital intensity is highlighted by an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 17.8% and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.45. In contrast, Tyler's capital profile is asset-light, requiring CapEx of $16.02M on $2,332.34M in revenue in FY2025 (0.69% of revenue),. Because public sector software delivery requires low physical plant investment, industry capacity, supply, and lead-time constraints are not physical; the industry cycle is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
دورة صعودية
In a robust digital modernization up-cycle, federal and state grants accelerate municipal cloud adoption, driving on-premise conversions to AWS ahead of the 2030 target. Legislative mandates for digital filing and permitting rapidly scale statewide portal ARR from $2M to $10M-$20M, lifting annual organic growth above 12% and driving operating margins toward 22% as legacy data centers close.
دورة هبوطية
In a public sector budgetary down-cycle, local tax receipts soften, prompting municipalities and county boards to freeze non-essential IT modernization RFPs and defer cloud conversions. Deal slippage rises, state unmandated digital contracts stagnate at initial run rates, and dual-hosting infrastructure expenses persist, squeezing consolidated revenue growth toward 5% and eliminating margin expansion leverage.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Public Sector Cloud Migration and Modernization
positive
Local and state agencies are systematically retiring legacy on-premise client-server architectures in favor of modern cloud SaaS hosted on AWS, expanding vendor contract lifetime value.
Statewide Digital Government Portal Mandates
positive
State legislatures are mandating electronic court filing, automated vehicle registration, and digital payment portals, unlocking statewide enterprise platform agreements that scale from $2M to $10M-$20M ARR.
التموضع
Tyler Technologies occupies an advantaged market position as the largest pure-play vertical software provider dedicated to state and local governments. With $1,694.42M in FY2025 Enterprise Software revenue (72.6% of total) and $628.55M in Platform Technologies, Tyler's comprehensive suite covers ERP, courts, public safety, and state digital portals, providing high competitive insulation against horizontal software vendors.5,8
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
0%
We assign moderate conviction consistent with our Hold recommendation. While Tyler is an elite compounder with a Wide moat and pristine balance sheet, the stock trades at USD 339.87, representing a 4.96% premium to our Fair value of USD 323.81. We recommend 0% new capital deployment, maintaining existing holdings within diversified growth portfolios.4
المخاطر
Portfolio exposure to Tyler Technologies should be governed by valuation discipline and strict tracking of municipal software budget health. Given that public sector procurement can introduce quarterly revenue lumpiness, investors should evaluate rolling twelve-month bookings rather than single-quarter timing fluctuations. Capital protection is reinforced by Tyler's negative net debt of -$497.54M and consistent free cash flow conversion.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
USD 300.00
Initiate first tranche (one-third position)
Represents an approximate 7% discount to our Fair value of USD 323.81, offering an initial margin of safety for long-term compounders.
USD 275.00
Complete core allocation (remaining two-thirds)
Represents a 15% discount to Fair value, approaching the 52-week low of USD 270.71 and providing strong valuation support across discounted earnings and lenses.
Downgrade forward EPS expectations and review valuation multiples if dual-hosting inefficiencies prevent guided .
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Quality / Growth Compounder Investor
Hold
Tyler's 98%+ client retention and predictable SaaS bookings provide exceptional earnings visibility, but trading at 23.7x forward earnings fully prices in guided 100 bps annual margin expansion. Hold existing shares while awaiting a margin of safety.4,5
Deep Value / Margin of Safety Investor
Avoid
Trading at a premium to our Fair value of USD 323.81 with peer multiples substantially lower (FICO 14.74x, ROP 15.07x, PAYX 16.38x), Tyler offers zero margin of safety for strict value strategies until prices pull back below USD 300.00.
Defensive / Capital Preservation Investor
Hold
Negative net debt of -$497.54M and $637.53M in FY2025 free cash flow insulate Tyler against macro stress, making the company an outstanding core defensive software holding, though new purchases should be paused.6
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
احتفاظ
We maintain a Hold recommendation on Tyler Technologies Inc. Tyler represents an exemplary compounder characterized by an unassailable Wide economic moat, mission-critical municipal software dominance, and superior cash generation ($637.53M in FY2025 free cash flow). However, with the stock trading at USD 339.87 as of October 12, 2026, shares sit at a 4.96% premium to our Fair value of USD 323.81.4,6
At 23.7x forward earnings, the market adequately values Tyler's mid-term compounding profile while underestimating the drag of AWS dual-hosting expenses and public sector procurement delays. We advise existing investors to hold their positions and prospective buyers to await an entry point below Fair value.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-12 · Published 2026-10-12 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in السيناريو الهبوطي, التاريخ المالي
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-10-12 · Published 2026-10-12 · cited for 1 figureCited in الميزة التنافسية, التاريخ المالي
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-12 · Published 2026-10-12 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in السيناريو الهبوطي
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Dual-running costs to support on-premise software and AWS infrastructure persist as cloud migration stretches toward 2030 with quarter-to-quarter lumpiness, while competitive bidding in ERP and public safety requires heightened product spending. Operating margin contracting by 3pp from the 17.0% mid-cycle expectation down below 14.0% eliminates operating leverage.5,7
Tyler currently trades at 23.7x forward P/E and the model assumes a 22.0x terminal P/E exit multiple. Vertical software peers trade at much lower multiples: FICO at 14.74x, ROP at 15.07x, PAYX at 16.38x. A 20% multiple contraction brings Tyler terminal multiple to ~17.6x, eliminating valuation expansion.3,4
03Public Sector Domain Expertise and Intangible Regulatory Rule-Sets — Over four decades of public sector RFP compliance, specialized municipal accounting rules, and state statutory adaptations create significant intangible barriers against horizontal software vendors. Even well-capitalized software peers lack the localized domain relationships required to displace Tyler across fragmented town, county, and state agencies.Moderate
RFP Competition in Municipal ERP and Public Safety
medium
12 to 24 months
Tyler continues aggressive internal R&D investments in core ERP and public safety modules while leveraging state-level digital platform relationships to bundle multi-agency contracts,.5
Municipal Procurement Delays and Deal Slippage
low
Ongoing
Broad geographic and divisional diversity spanning thousands of municipalities, court systems, and state agencies mitigates procurement lumpiness in any single local jurisdiction.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (35.93 US$) plus discounted terminal value (132 US$) minus signed per current share (-12.15 US$) equals the 181 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
In the Bull case, carrying an assigned probability of 20.0%, Tyler accelerates migration of its on-premise installed base to cloud SaaS well ahead of schedule, eliminating duplicate data center hosting expenses sooner and expanding operating leverage. Faster adoption of state digital government mandates and enterprise cross-selling drive outsized bookings, yielding a target of $411.90 with an implied return of 21.2% from $339.87.
Consistent annual operating margin expansion demonstrates that cloud investments are generating operational leverage rather than permanent operational overhead.
03
المقياس:
Maintenance Base Cloud Migration Pace
الحاليManagement remains on schedule toward the long-term target, though conversions remain lumpy across quarters.
لماذا يهم
Migrating the on-premise installed base to AWS is necessary to eventually eliminate duplicate data center costs and complete the transition to a pure cloud model.
04
المقياس:
Statewide Digital Government Portal Mandates
الحاليRecent contract wins demonstrate cross-division expansion as state digital mandates ramp,.
لماذا يهم
Statewide digital portal contracts provide multi-department cross-selling flywheels that scale contract annual recurring revenue substantially.
05
المقياس:
Core Municipal Client Retention Rate
الحاليClient retention remains exceptionally high across core public sector lines, supported by leading court share and ERP win rates,.
لماذا يهم
Sustaining high retention rates protects Tyler's dominant public sector market share and pricing power against specialized point-solution competitors.
Extremely low physical capital requirements maximize free cash flow conversion, affording management flexibility to execute tuck-in acquisitions and buybacks without leveraging the balance sheet.
Enterprise Software generated $1,694.42M in FY2025 (72.6% of revenue), complemented by 21.7% SaaS growth and all-time record bookings in Q2 2026,.
The transition from on-premise licenses to subscription SaaS increases lifetime customer revenue and establishes a durable 9.42%-10.04% top-line expansion trajectory,.
PTC Inc.PTC
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة150.71 US$Report-date price194.45 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار61 / 100
الهامش
TYL
Tyler Technologies Inc.
$13.9B
23.7x
5.7x
30.5x
9.7%
—
FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation
$16.0B
14.7x
6.7x
15.6x
—
53.8%
ROP
Roper Technologies Inc.
$36.3B
15.1x
4.4x
14.5x
13.1%
27.7%
PAYX
Paychex Inc.
$37.2B
16.4x
5.6x
13.2x
47.1%
38.5%
PTC
PTC Inc.
$21.1B
21.8x
7.2x
17.5x
35.1%
28.2%
Public Sector Artificial Intelligence Adoption
neutral
Specialized artificial intelligence features in municipal administration, public records retrieval, and public safety are emerging, though direct AI revenue contributions remain modest and are projected to become financially meaningful over a 12 to 18-month horizon.