بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
VMC — frequently asked questions
Is Vulcan Materials Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-04, VMC looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 243 USD versus our fair value of 164 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 201 USD. That implies roughly 32.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, gives VMC a fair value of 164 USD and a potential value of 201 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Vulcan Materials Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy VMC now?
Our latest published rating for VMC, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Sell. Vulcan Materials Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 243 USD versus fair value of 164 USD; potential value is 201 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for VMC?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-04 documents Vulcan Materials Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is VMC's rating?
Our latest published rating for VMC, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 164 USD, the potential value of 201 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (243 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةSell
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$243.06
Fair value
$164.46
Potential value
$200.88
As of
2026-10-02
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
The most significant upside catalyst for the business is an accelerated disbursement of public infrastructure funding under the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), combined with large-scale industrial onshoring and data center groundbreakings across the Sunbelt.
We rate Vulcan Materials Company a Sell because the report-date stock price of $243.06 as of October 2, 2026, trades at a 47.79% premium to our Fair value of $164.46, creating an unfavorable risk-reward balance that leaves investors exposed to cyclical construction slowdowns.3
Our rating for Vulcan Materials Company is Sell. For an ordinary investor, a Sell rating means that holding the shares at this price carries significant risk of capital loss, and new capital should not be invested in the stock. Investors who own shares should consider liquidating their holdings or trimming their exposure to protect accumulated gains, reallocating those funds to investment opportunities with more attractive risk-adjusted returns.3
The stock traded at a report-date price of $243.06 on October 2, 2026. Our valuation establishes a Fair value of $164.46 per share and a of $200.88 per share. At $243.06, the shares trade at an implied return of -32.34% to Fair value, which represents a 47.79% price premium above what the business is fundamentally worth. Furthermore, the report-date price sits 21.00% above our Potential value of $200.88, which means the market has priced in more than the entire upside of our optimistic operating scenario.
The central risk that would further impair our view of the business is a protracted contraction in private residential and commercial construction, combined with rising energy and freight expenses. Because private building projects generate roughly half of heavy aggregate demand, high borrowing costs reduce construction groundbreakings and shipment volumes. When volumes drop, fixed operating costs at quarry crushing plants and rail depots cause profit deleverage. An investor would see this happening if quarterly aggregate gross margins fall below 25.0% and operating margins decline toward 17.4%, as occurred during previous cyclical downturns.
The strongest reason this business could outperform is Vulcan's irreplaceable network of permitted quarries and local delivery monopolies. Heavy stone cannot be shipped economically by truck past 50 miles, which shields local quarries from outside competition and allows Vulcan to raise prices each year. If multi-year federal funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act accelerates highway projects while industrial onshoring expands, sales and cash flow could surge. Under that favorable path, operating margins could reach 22.0% and free cash flow could exceed $1.3B, supporting our Potential value of $200.88. However, that Potential value remains secondary to our Fair value of $164.46 and is still well below the report-date price of $243.06.1,3,4,6
Irreplaceable Local Quarry Reserves and Natural Freight Monopolies
Vulcan controls permitted aggregate reserves near expanding metropolitan centers that cannot be replicated due to stringent municipal zoning and environmental permitting barriers. Because crushed stone has a low value-to-weight ratio that makes truck delivery uneconomic beyond 50 miles, local quarries operate as natural pricing monopolies that consistently compound annual unit prices across economic cycles.6
Multi-Year Demand Floor from Public Infrastructure Funding
Federal disbursements under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and active state DOT highway programs provide stable, non-cyclical demand across Vulcan's balanced regional footprint in the East ($2,452.7M), West ($2,297.8M), and Gulf Coast ($3,687.7M). This public spending backstop cushions volumes during periods of private real estate softening.5,6
Aggregates possess a low value-to-weight ratio that limits economic truck transport to approximately 50 miles from the production site. This physical transportation barrier insulates local metropolitan quarries from distant competitor supply, creating local natural monopolies where Vulcan generated $6,297.2M in aggregates revenue in FY2025 (79.3% of total).5,6
توصية الدار
We rate Vulcan Materials Company a Sell because the report-date price of $243.06 stands at an unsustainable 47.79% premium to our Fair value of $164.46, offering a negative 32.34% implied return that leaves no margin of safety against cyclical volume declines.3
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Vulcan Materials Company is the largest producer of construction aggregates in the United States, providing crushed stone, sand, and gravel alongside downstream building materials such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. The company operates a network of 425 active aggregates facilities that supply essential building materials across the country by truck, rail, barge, and ship. These materials form the foundation for critical public infrastructure, including highways, bridges, airports, ports, water systems, and rail corridors, as well as private construction projects such as residential homes, commercial office buildings, industrial manufacturing plants, schools, and hospitals.
The company organizes its business into core product segments, with construction aggregates representing its primary economic engine alongside complementary asphalt and ready-mixed concrete operations. In addition to standard construction materials, the aggregates segment includes specialized industrial mineral sites, such as a leased high-purity limestone quarry in Brooksville, Florida, which supplies calcium carbonate supplements used in animal feed and plastics manufacturing with 10.3 million tons of proven and probable reserves. Vulcan serves public infrastructure contractors, commercial developers, and local homebuilders across major growth markets in the United States.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
In a severe cyclical stress test, elevated interest rates and tight commercial bank lending standards depress private non-residential and multi-family residential building groundbreakings across key Sunbelt markets. While Vulcan's heavy materials footprint across the East ($2,452.7M revenue in FY2025), West ($2,297.8M), and Gulf Coast ($3,687.7M) benefits from Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) funding, public lettings experience administrative execution delays and weather interruptions. Under these conditions, consolidated aggregates shipments contract, mirroring the FY2024 downturn when revenue fell 4.7% from $7,781.9M to $7,417.7M and operating income dropped from $1,427.4M to $1,364.5M. Fixed costs at crushing plants and rail distribution networks induce operational deleverage, pulling operating margin down toward historical troughs (13.01% in FY2022) and well below the current 20.40% margin ($1,619.6M EBIT). Simultaneously, refinancing $4,942.1M of total debt at higher prevailing rates (5.89% pre-tax cost of debt) inflates interest expense above the FY2025 level of $467.0M, depressing diluted EPS into the $8.50-$9.00 range and triggering multiple compression toward 16.0x.
Energy and transport cost shock combined with private construction volume slump compresses operating margin by 300 bps.
Operating margin historical low of 13.01% in FY2022 and industry benchmark operating margin of 15.30% confirm that operating margin can fall below 17.4% during cyclical downturns, triggering an estimated fair value impact of -18.5% over a 12-month timeline.
FV impact
-1.6%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Gross margin falling below 25.0% would invalidate the pricing durability thesis, indicating that aggregates are commoditizing or that Vulcan is unable to pass through rising diesel, electricity, and explosives extraction costs to customers.
Vulcan Materials Company's competitive moat is founded on irreplaceable local aggregate quarry reserves and insurmountable transportation logistics friction. Because crushed stone, sand, and gravel exhibit an exceptionally low economic value relative to their physical weight, delivery by truck is economically unfeasible beyond a radius of approximately 50 miles. As a consequence, localized geographic clusters are inherently protected from distant regional competitors, endowing Vulcan with localized natural pricing monopolies across its metropolitan networks. In FY2025, the aggregates division produced $6,297.2M in revenue, representing 79.3% of consolidated sales, generating $1,619.6M in operating income at a 20.40% operating margin.
The durability of this advantage is reinforced by substantial regulatory permitting and municipal zoning barriers. Greenfield quarry development requires multi-agency environmental approvals, clean water compliance, and local municipal zoning consents that often require a decade or more to secure, facing intense opposition in expanding urban centers. These regulatory constraints severely restrict new competitive aggregate supply from entering established metropolitan centers. Consequently, Vulcan's multi-decade permitted reserve base across the East ($2,452.7M revenue), West ($2,297.8M), and Gulf Coast ($3,687.7M) functions as an irreplaceable real asset network.
Operating alongside its primary peer Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Vulcan benefits from rational, disciplined duopoly behavior. Rather than competing through destructive price discounting during cyclical downturns, both companies routinely prioritize unit gross profit preservation through dynamic pricing escalators. MLM operates at a comparable operating margin of 20.19%, confirming industry pricing discipline that sustains Vulcan's margins well above the 15.30% basic materials industry benchmark. However, because Vulcan's return on invested capital (9.28%) only modestly exceeds its enterprise WACC of 8.97% due to asset intensity and natural reserve depletion, the moat is appropriately assessed as Narrow.
الربح الاقتصادي
Vulcan generates economic profit above its enterprise cost of capital, but the spread remains narrow. Latest ROIC of 9.28% exceeds the computed WACC of 8.97% by 31 basis points, though it trails the moderate cost of equity of 9.66%. While operating income reached $1,619.6M with a 20.40% margin in FY2025 and gross margin reached 27.38%, Vulcan's substantial invested capital base of $12,887.2M ($16,700.4M total assets, including $3,780.9M goodwill) moderates cash return on capital, justifying a Narrow moat rating rather than Wide.
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Cost Advantage (Prohibitive Transportation Logistics) — Aggregates possess a low value-to-weight ratio that limits economic truck transport to approximately 50 miles from the production site. This physical transportation barrier insulates local metropolitan quarries from distant competitor supply, creating local natural monopolies where Vulcan generated $6,297.2M in aggregates revenue in FY2025 (79.3% of total).Wide
02Intangible Assets (Permitted Reserves and Regulatory Barriers) — Securing environmental permits, water extraction rights, and municipal zoning for greenfield aggregate quarries near urban growth centers is exceptionally difficult due to strict environmental regulations and local zoning opposition. Vulcan's permitted reserves across high-growth corridors represent irreplaceable tangible assets that cannot be replicated by prospective entrants.
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Permitting restrictions and depletion of urban quarry reserves
medium
5-10 years
Vulcan maintains multi-decade permitted reserves across primary growth corridors and continuously invests maintenance and replacement capital ($677.7M capex in FY2025) to extend reserve life.5
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
163.30 US$
163.90 US$
164.46 US$
164.98 US$
165.71 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($164.46). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $929.9M after modeled reinvestment of $361.6M, with terminal value at 75.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Public infrastructure lettings provide steady demand that offsets private construction softness
Capital reinvestment supports steady quarry fleet renewal and modest share repurchases
Under the base case, Vulcan achieves a target valuation of $164.46, representing a return of -32.3% from $243.06. This outcome carries an estimated probability of 60.0%. In this scenario, public infrastructure spending provides a steady demand foundation across the East and West divisions, while compounding aggregates unit pricing offsets moderate volume headwinds in private residential construction. Operating margins remain stable, supporting consistent free cash flow conversion. This path would be disconfirmed if private construction contractions accelerate without offsetting public highway volume, which investors would observe through sequential volume declines in quarterly releases.
Maintain Sell; Do not add to positions on reported earnings beats; maintain underweight positioning and treat share strength as an exit opportunity.
المُحفِّز: Diluted earnings per share and consolidated revenue exceeding consensus expectations driven by strong aggregates unit pricing realization and public highway contract execution.
An operational beat confirms Vulcan's local pricing power but does not resolve the substantial premium where the share price trades above Fair value $164.46, keeping expected returns deeply negative.
متوافق
Maintain Sell; Maintain Sell rating; continue systematic position reductions and reallocate capital to basic materials opportunities offering positive risk-adjusted returns.
Meeting consensus expectations confirms steady volume demand but leaves the shares overextended relative to Fair value $164.46.
دون التوقعات
Maintain Sell; Accelerate liquidation of remaining holdings; avoid buying dips as valuation support sits substantially lower at Fair value $164.46.
المُحفِّز: Diluted earnings per share or shipment volumes falling short of consensus due to private non-residential construction softness or transport cost inflation.
A quarterly earnings miss exposes the fragility of peak valuation multiples and is likely to trigger severe multiple compression toward cyclical trough valuations.
جودة الأرباح
Earnings quality is supported by strong cash conversion, where operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income. Working capital management remains disciplined, with receivables and inventory turning over in line with seasonal construction cycles. Operating income is clean of significant non-operating gains, and capital expenditures remain properly categorized between maintenance fleet replacement and selective quarry expansion. However, depreciation expense represents a meaningful portion of operating earnings, reflecting the asset-intensive nature of quarry operations and crushing equipment.
زخم التقديرات
Analyst consensus revisions following the recent quarterly release have remained flat across both revenue and diluted earnings per share. Sell-side analysts have maintained their baseline expectations as resilient aggregates unit pricing offsets localized volume softness in private construction markets.
المقاييس التي يجب مراقبتها قبل الإعلان
01
المقياس:
Aggregates Unit Price Realization
الحاليPricing momentum remains positive across regional markets, supporting operating margins.
لماذا يهم
Pricing growth in crushed stone and sand determines whether unit margins can expand faster than operational cost inflation, driving gross profit and cash generation.
In FY2025, Vulcan generated $1,813.0M in cash flow from operations, up from $1,409.6M in FY2024 and $1,536.8M in FY2023. Capital expenditures totaled $677.7M in FY2025 (comprising approximately $474.4M in maintenance capex, or 70% of total, and $203.3M in growth capex), yielding free cash flow of $1,135.3M. Free cash flow conversion relative to GAAP net income of $1,076.7M was exceptional at 105.4%, driven by strong non-cash depreciation add-backs ($748.5M) and favorable working capital management.4,5
تخصيص رأس المال
Management deployed its $1,135.3M of free cash flow in FY2025 across balanced capital priorities: $259.8M paid in common dividends, $438.4M directed to share repurchases, and $961.4M reduction, lowering balance sheet debt from $5,307.4M in FY2024 to $4,362.1M as of FY2025 ($4,942.1M market data total debt as of 2026-10-04). Cash and ended FY2025 at $183.3M. of $63.1M was fully offset by repurchases, keeping stable at 132.7M shares in FY2025 (129.6M as of 2026-10-04).
Vulcan's return on invested capital has normalized around 9.28%, recovering from cyclical lows in FY2022 when operating income fell to $951.4M and margin dropped to 13.01%. While operating income expanded to $1,619.6M in FY2025, invested capital expanded to $12,887.2M, which keeps ROIC within a moderate single-digit band.
Latest ROIC of 9.28% marginally exceeds the computed enterprise WACC of 8.97% by 31 basis points, but remains below the moderate cost of equity of 9.66%, demonstrating limited surplus economic value creation above equity hurdle rates.
Aggregates Segment Drives Premium Profitability and Cash Flow
Aggregates revenue of $6,297.2M accounted for 79.3% of FY2025 consolidated revenue of $7,941.1M, generating of $1,619.6M (20.40% margin).
أحدث إيرادات7.9 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +9.2%
هامش التشغيل20.4%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر1.1 مليار US$FY2025
صافي الدين4.2 مليار US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات2.2 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−1.5 مليار US$إجمالي الربح625.5 مليون US$المصروفات التشغيلية−200.2 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي425.3 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−101.9 مليون US$صافي الدخل323.4 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
2,155,800,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
1,530,300,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
625,500,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
200,200,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
425,300,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-101,900,000 US$
صافي الدخل
323,400,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول16.7 مليار US$النقد183.3 مليون US$الأصول المتداولة2.6 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات8.2 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة956.1 مليون US$حقوق المساهمين8.5 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
16,700,400,000 US$
النقد
183,300,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
2,567,900,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
8,151,500,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
956,100,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
8,548,900,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل1.1 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+748.5 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+63.1 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−75.3 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي1.8 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة600.8 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+1.8 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−529.2 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−1.7 مليار US$النقد في نهاية الفترة189.4 مليون US$
1.8 مليار US$ − 677.7 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 1.1 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
1,076,700,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
1,888,300,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
748,500,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
63,100,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
1,813,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
75,300,000 US$
النقد المتاح
2,413,800,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
600,800,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
529,200,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
1,695,200,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
438,400,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
259,800,000 US$
صافي سداد الدين
961,400,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
35,600,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
189,400,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-529,200,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-1,695,200,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-06-30.
2.2 مليارإجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة
Cost of1.5 مليار71%
أخرى625.5 مليون29%
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Cost of
1.5 مليار
71%
—
Other
625.5 مليون
29%
—
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) trades at 22.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.5x compares with a peer median of 18.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Martin Marietta Materials Inc., Steel Dynamics Inc., Ecolab Inc. and The Sherwin-Williams Company, as of 2026-10-04.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Expansion
The basic materials and construction supplies industry benchmark displays a capex-to-revenue ratio of 6.60% and a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.68x. Vulcan's FY2025 capex of $677.7M against depreciation of $748.5M reflects disciplined replacement spending (capex/revenue of 8.53%), while the broader industry continues net capacity expansion to fulfill federal infrastructure backlogs.4,5
دورة صعودية
A bull cycle is powered by synchronized public infrastructure spending under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), state highway fund disbursements, and large-scale private manufacturing and data center construction across the Sunbelt. In this environment, aggregates demand expands by over 5% annually, enabling compounding unit price increases of 7-9% that drive operating margins toward 22.0% and lift diluted EPS above the consensus high of $11.33 in FY2027.
دورة هبوطية
A bear cycle emerges when sustained restrictive monetary policy and tight commercial credit curtail single-family residential starts and private commercial office construction. Because private construction accounts for roughly half of aggregates demand, shipment volumes fall. While high freight barriers prevent price discounting, operational deleverage on quarry crushing plants and rail depots compresses operating margins toward cyclical lows (13.01% in FY2022), causing diluted EPS to stagnate below consensus forecasts ($9.12 in FY2026 and $10.59 in FY2027).
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Federal Infrastructure Investment (IIJA Disbursements)
positive
Multi-year federal funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act provides sustained public highway, airport, and bridge construction demand, creating a multi-year floor for aggregate shipment volumes.
Sunbelt Demographic Expansion and Industrial Onshoring
positive
Population migration into Texas, the Southeast, and Western growth corridors drives structural non-residential development, semiconductor plant construction, and utility infrastructure renewal.
التموضع
Vulcan is well positioned as the leading US aggregate producer, with 79.3% of revenue derived from high-margin aggregates ($6,297.2M in FY2025). Its balanced geographic exposure across the East ($2,452.7M), West ($2,297.8M), and Gulf Coast ($3,687.7M) insulates the business from regional recessions. However, because aggregates demand remains cyclical and capital intensity is substantial, current positioning is demand-led and evidence-limited regarding long-term supply additions.5,6
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
0%
Under a Sell rating, zero exposure (0%) is recommended because the share price of $243.06 as of 2026-10-02 trades at a 47.79% premium to the synthesized Fair value of $164.46, offering an implied return of -32.34%.3
المخاطر
Risk management focuses on capital preservation and eliminating downside exposure to an overvalued cyclical stock. Vulcan trades at $243.06 as of 2026-10-02, a 47.79% premium above Fair value ($164.46) with forward P/E of 22.42x. Investors should systematically eliminate exposure. Portfolio risk must be managed by avoiding concentration in building materials producers currently trading at peak cycle multiples, maintaining rigorous stop-losses at $235.00, and respecting balance sheet leverage where $4,942.1M of total debt faces higher refinancing rates at 5.89% pre-tax cost of debt.
At the house Fair value of $164.46, market price matches normalized fundamental earnings power, but an adequate margin of safety is not yet established for a cyclical producer.
Evaluate initial staged accumulation only if private construction indicators trough
شرائح الخروج
المستوى
إجراء
$245.00 - $250.00
Liquidate 50% of remaining position on tactical bounces toward 50-day moving average ($265.18)
At the report-date price of $243.06 as of October 2, 2026, the stock trades at a 47.79% premium to our Fair value of $164.46 and 21.00% above our Potential value of $200.88. Value investors should avoid entering new positions because the current market valuation offers no margin of safety and prices in perfection across multi-year volume and pricing forecasts.3
Tactical & Momentum Investor
Avoid
The stock's forward P/E multiple of 22.42x sits well above basic materials peer averages (such as Steel Dynamics at 11.76x) and leaves the stock vulnerable to severe multiple compression if private construction starts decelerate further. Tactical investors should avoid chasing shares at peak cyclical multiples.3
Income & Capital Preservation Investor
Avoid
With an annual dividend rate of $2.08 per share, Vulcan yields less than 0.9% on the report-date share price of $243.06, providing minimal income support while exposing capital to a -32.34% implied return to Fair value of $164.46. Capital preservation investors should reallocate capital to higher-yielding instruments or undervalued basic materials equities.3
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
بيع
We recommend a Sell rating on Vulcan Materials Company. While Vulcan is an exceptionally well-run business with irreplaceable quarry assets and strong pricing power generating 20.40% operating margins ($1,619.6M operating income in FY2025), the stock's valuation has become entirely detached from intrinsic earnings power. At the report-date price of $243.06 as of October 2, 2026, the stock trades at an implied return of -32.34% to our Fair value of $164.46. Even when giving full credit to long-term federal infrastructure funding and Sunbelt population migration, our Potential value of $200.88 sits 17.35% below the current market quotation, indicating that market expectations have outpaced any plausible operational execution.3,5
Investors holding Vulcan Materials should systematically liquidate their positions or implement strict trailing stop orders to lock in multi-year gains. Capital should be redeployed into basic materials and industrial companies offering positive expected returns and defensible valuation multiples.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A plausible downside scenario exists wherein protracted interest rate pressures depress commercial real estate groundbreakings and residential housing starts, causing consolidated shipment volumes to contract. While Vulcan's quarry reserves and high freight transport barriers prevent outright price deflation, fixed cost deleverage on quarry plants and delivery fleets compresses operating margins toward cyclical lows. At the same time, elevated diesel and logistics expenses erode unit gross margins. Under these conditions, earnings power stagnates and the valuation multiple derates toward broader industry trough multiples. This scenario would be confirmed if quarterly aggregate shipments decline year-over-year while operating margins compress toward industry historical averages.
Protracted infrastructure letting delays and commercial real estate stagnation depress 5-year revenue growth by 5 percentage points.
Consolidated revenue contracted by 4.7% from $7,781.9M in FY2023 to $7,417.7M in FY2024, demonstrating that multi-year top-line growth can stagnate or turn negative when private building cycles contract, resulting in an estimated fair value impact of -28% over a 24-month horizon.
FV impact
-4.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Valuation multiple derating to cyclical trough as aggregates growth normalizes to GDP rate.
Peer basic materials forward multiples (STLD at 11.76x) and the bear case scenario P/E assumption of 16.0x demonstrate that market valuation multiples can compress by 20%+ from current forward P/E of 22.42x, causing an estimated fair value impact of -22.5% over an 18-month timeline.3
FV impact
-7.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Operating margin dropping below 17.5% reflects severe operational deleverage from quarry fixed plant overhead or a breakdown in regional duopoly pricing discipline alongside Martin Marietta.
Top-line revenue growth slowing below 1.5% indicates structural loss of regional market share or broad-based postponement of state highway department lettings across key Sunbelt markets.
A multiple derating below 16.0x marks a transition to cyclical trough valuation as the market re-evaluates aggregates volume growth toward long-run GDP rates, converging toward broader basic materials peers.
Free cash flow falling below $800M would signal that heavy equipment replacement capex and working capital drag are eroding net cash conversion, constraining debt service and share repurchase capacity.
03Efficient Scale (Regional Duopoly Market Structure) — In major regional markets across the East ($2,452.7M revenue), West ($2,297.8M), and Gulf Coast ($3,687.7M), local demand supports only one or two large-scale producers. Vulcan operates alongside Martin Marietta (MLM) in a disciplined duopoly where MLM generates 20.19% operating margin, preventing price wars and keeping Vulcan's operating margin (20.40%) well above the construction materials industry benchmark of 15.30%.Moderate
Localized market share competition from Martin Marietta
medium
2-3 years
Rational duopoly pricing behavior persists, with MLM operating at comparable margins (20.19% operating margin) rather than engaging in destructive price-based volume competition.
Severe energy and transport logistics cost inflation
medium
1-2 years
Dynamic fuel surcharges and annual aggregates contract pricing resets allow Vulcan to pass through input cost inflation over multi-quarter periods.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (30.70 US$) plus discounted terminal value (92.35 US$) minus signed per current share (32.25 US$) equals the 90.79 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
Under the bull case, Vulcan achieves Potential value of $200.88 with a target of $200.88, offering a return of -17.4% against $243.06, with a probability of 20.0%. This pathway requires a sharp acceleration in federal infrastructure disbursements combined with substantial private non-residential investment across data centers and industrial facilities. High operating leverage on crushing plants and transport fleets expands operating margins beyond baseline expectations, generating substantial free cash flow that fuels aggressive share repurchases. Disconfirmation would occur if state transportation letting backlogs fail to convert into physical shipments over the coming fiscal years.
State department of transportation contract disbursements continue at a steady pace.
لماذا يهم
Highway and bridge lettings backed by federal legislation provide the primary volume foundation that offsets weakness in private commercial real estate.
03
المقياس:
Diesel Fuel and Hauling Logistics Costs
الحاليTransportation and fuel expenses remain elevated but are partially mitigated by fuel surcharges.
لماذا يهم
Extraction and transportation fuel expenses directly impact cost of goods sold per ton, dictating whether price escalators are sufficient to preserve operating margins.
04
المقياس:
Duopoly Market Discipline with Martin Marietta
الحاليBoth major producers continue prioritizing price over volume in core metropolitan markets.
لماذا يهم
Cooperative pricing dynamics in overlapping regional markets prevent destructive price competition and protect industry-leading operating margins.
Management can comfortably maintain its dividend and share repurchases while servicing debt, but valuation already prices in peak cash conversion.
Valuation Disconnect Against Capital Cost Realities
The stock trades at $243.06 as of 2026-10-02 with forward P/E of 22.42x, representing a 47.79% premium to the synthesized Fair value of $164.46.
Current market pricing demands a 12.48% 10-year EPS CAGR against historical 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.77%, creating severe downside re-rating risk.
Ecolab Inc.ECL
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة203.99 US$Report-date price273.7 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار62 / 100
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة153.67 US$Report-date price329.1 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار59 / 100
الهامش
VMC
Vulcan Materials Company
$31.5B
22.4x
3.9x
15.5x
13.2%
—
MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc.
$34.3B
21.8x
5.1x
16.6x
8.9%
20.2%
STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc.
$33.3B
11.8x
1.6x
13.8x
17.6%
11.5%
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
$76.7B
29.1x
4.6x
20.7x
22.0%
18.5%
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
$77.6B
23.5x
3.2x
19.5x
65.1%
18.1%
Restrictive Commercial Real Estate Credit Conditions
negative
Elevated interest rates suppress private commercial real estate and residential building starts, constraining private sector demand for aggregates, concrete, and asphalt.
<$130.00 (Deep Value Entry)
Consider initiating core overweight position
Represents an asymmetric entry point pricing in a severe cyclical downturn, well below owner earnings value ($208.49) and providing durable long-term upside.
<17.5% over trailing 12 months
Re-underwrite DCFcash flow schedules and lower terminal margin assumptions toward basic materials industry average (15.30%).
