Análisis opcionales del producto
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Most added FY2027 cloud capacity and some FY2028 capacity were described as reserved.
Capital expenditure to depreciation remains above 1.8x in FY2029.
Sell: the report-date price exceeds Fair value. Prolonged capital spending is the main risk, while reserved cloud capacity is the clearest route to stronger sales and cash.3
For an ordinary investor, Sell means reducing or exiting exposure rather than initiating or increasing a position.
The report was prepared at $258.51 on 2026-09-04. Fair value of $183.76 and Potential value of $225.57 both carry the 2026-09-08 valuation date.3
The main risk is that capital spending remains structurally elevated after capacity deployment. Under that downside assumption, depreciation and reinvestment pressure would delay free-cash-flow recovery.
The clearest upside is profitable use of reserved cloud capacity. That would raise AWS sales, improve business mix, and release more cash as the build slows.4
Management linked Graviton to greater AWS attractiveness, while AWS generated $128.73 billion of FY2025 revenue.47
Demand remains ahead of available cloud capacity, and reservations extend into FY2028. Added power can remove supply limits and support cloud revenue if customers use the capacity profitably.4
Sell because the report-date price stands above Fair value while the capital build still suppresses owner cash.3
Sell because the report-date price stands above Fair value while the capital build still suppresses owner cash.3
AMAZON COM INC serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focus on selection, price, and convenience. AMAZON COM INC designs its stores to enable hundreds of millions of unique products to be sold by us and by third parties across dozens of product categories. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. The North America segment primarily consists of amounts earned from retail sales of consumer products (including from sellers) and advertising and subscription services through North America-focused online and physical stores. This segment includes export sales from these online stores.
The International segment primarily consists of amounts earned from retail sales of consumer products (including from sellers) and advertising and subscription services through internationally-focused online stores.
The central stress is prolonged construction without matching use. Capital spending absorbs operating cash, depreciation rises, and free cash flow stays weak.
This path gains force if AWS growth falls below its test after the Q2 2026 management-reported reservation window. It also gains force if FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS falls below the forecast range’s lower bound.
If capital expenditure to depreciation stays above 1.8x in FY2029, depreciation and reinvestment remain elevated, delaying the planned recovery in owner cash flow.56
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
A breach would show that the construction phase has not normalized. More operating cash would remain tied up in assets, while depreciation and reinvestment delay free-cash-flow recovery.
Actual:FY2025 capital expenditure was $131.82 billion, about twice depreciation.
Alerta siAbove 1.8x in FY2029.
Amazon’s Narrow moat rating rests on proprietary cloud-compute technology. In Q2 2026 remarks, management linked Graviton to greater AWS attractiveness. The evidence does not establish switching costs, pricing power, or durable cash returns.
In Q2 2026 remarks, management said most FY2027 capacity and some FY2028 capacity were reserved. This is management-reported demand visibility, not realized use, switching costs, or proof of durable returns. North America’s FY2025 revenue scale is not itself a moat source.
FY2025 capital expenditure reached $131.82 billion while free cash flow was $7.70 billion. The moat creates value only if deployed capacity later earns durable cash returns.56
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($183.76). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $12.0B after modeled reinvestment of $67.3B, with terminal value at 70.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Confirm through FY2029 if management-reported reservations convert into AWS growth above its medium-term test while spending intensity falls. Disconfirm if FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS falls below the dated forecast range’s lower bound.14
Confirm by FY2028 if the reservations reported by management in Q2 2026 become paid use and improve mix. Disconfirm if cloud growth or margins lag deployment, or investment does not ease.
Cloud use and cash must improve.
Meeting forecasts would still leave the shares above assessed Fair value.
A result below that range would show weaker per-share earnings. Revenue, margin, capital spending and share growth would then need separate review.
In FY2025, operating cash exceeded profit, but investment and dilution weakened owner returns.56
Lower intensity frees cash.
Free cash flow recovery requires deployed assets to generate more cash or capital intensity to decline.56
Capacity expansion is the priority. Reservations could support returns, but underuse would leave high depreciation and reinvestment against less revenue.
FY2025 operating income was $79.98 billion, but heavy capital spending means profit alone does not prove that returns on investment improved.
New investment must earn above the 9.3185% weighted funding cost dated 2026-09-08. The available operating figures do not establish whether it did.
FY2025 net income was $77.67 billion, operating cash flow was $139.51 billion and free cash flow was $7.70 billion.
Investment spending absorbed much of the cash generated by operations.
FY2025 stock compensation was $19.47 billion, while diluted average shares increased from 10.492 billion in FY2023 to 10.827 billion in FY2025.
Business growth must outpace share growth for investors to receive the full earnings benefit.
| Ingresos | 716.924.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Coste de ventas | 356.414.000.000 US$ |
| Beneficio bruto | 360.510.000.000 US$ |
| Gastos operativos | 280.535.000.000 US$ |
| Beneficio operativo | 79.975.000.000 US$ |
| Partidas no operativas e impuestos | -2.305.000.000 US$ |
| Beneficio neto | 77.670.000.000 US$ |
| Activos totales | 818.042.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Efectivo | 86.810.000.000 US$ |
| Activos corrientes | 229.083.000.000 US$ |
| Pasivos totales | 406.977.000.000 US$ |
| Pasivos corrientes | 218.005.000.000 US$ |
| Patrimonio neto | 411.065.000.000 US$ |
| Beneficio neto | 77.670.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Entrada operativa | 162.893.000.000 US$ |
| Depreciación y amortización | 65.756.000.000 US$ |
| Compensación basada en acciones | 19.467.000.000 US$ |
| Flujo de caja operativo | 139.514.000.000 US$ |
| Salida operativa | 23.379.000.000 US$ |
| Efectivo disponible | 232.651.000.000 US$ |
| Efectivo inicial | 82.312.000.000 US$ |
| Entrada de financiación | 9.661.000.000 US$ |
| Efecto del tipo de cambio | 1.164.000.000 US$ |
| Salida de inversión | 142.545.000.000 US$ |
| Capex | 131.819.000.000 US$ |
| Otras actividades de inversión | 10.726.000.000 US$ |
| Efectivo final | 90.106.000.000 US$ |
| Flujo de inversión | -142.545.000.000 US$ |
| Flujo de financiación | 9.661.000.000 US$ |
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-06 · SEC EDGAR
| Ingresos por segmento operativo | Ingresos | Proporción | interanual |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 426,3 mil M US$ | 59,5 % | 10 % |
| International | 161,9 mil M US$ | 22,6 % | 13,3 % |
| Amazon Web Services | 128,7 mil M US$ | 18 % | 19,7 % |
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-06 · SEC EDGAR
| Ingresos por región | Ingresos | Proporción | interanual |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 489,7 mil M US$ | 68,3 % | 11,8 % |
| Non Us | 107,5 mil M US$ | 15 % | 14,5 % |
| Germany | 45,9 mil M US$ | 6,4 % | 12,3 % |
| United Kingdom | 43,2 mil M US$ | 6 % | 14,2 % |
| Japan | 30,7 mil M US$ | 4,3 % | 12 % |
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-09-08.
| Período | Ingresos | EBITDA | Beneficio neto | Flujo de caja operativo | Flujo de caja libre | Capex | Depreciación y amortización | Compensación basada en acciones | Recompras de acciones | Dividendos pagados | Emisión neta de deuda | Flujo de inversión | Flujo de financiación | Efectivo inicial | Efectivo final | Efectivo e inversiones | Deuda total | Margen operativo | ROIC | WACC | Diferencial ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 136 mil M US$ | 12,3 mil M US$ | 2371 M US$ | 17,2 mil M US$ | 10,5 mil M US$ | 6737 M US$ | 8116 M US$ | 2975 M US$ | — | 0 US$ | — | -9516 M US$ | -3716 M US$ | — | 19,9 mil M US$ | 26 mil M US$ | 8838 M US$ | 3,1 % | — | 7,2 % | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 177,9 mil M US$ | 15,6 mil M US$ | 3033 M US$ | 18,4 mil M US$ | 6410 M US$ | 12 mil M US$ | 11,5 mil M US$ | 4215 M US$ | — | 0 US$ | — | -27,1 mil M US$ | 9928 M US$ | 19,9 mil M US$ | 21,9 mil M US$ | 31 mil M US$ | 24,9 mil M US$ | 2,3 % | — | 7,1 % | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 232,9 mil M US$ | 27,8 mil M US$ | 10,1 mil M US$ | 30,7 mil M US$ | 17,3 mil M US$ | 13,4 mil M US$ | 15,3 mil M US$ | 5418 M US$ | — | — | — | -12,4 mil M US$ | -7686 M US$ | 21,9 mil M US$ | 32,2 mil M US$ | 41,3 mil M US$ | 25 mil M US$ | 5,3 % | — | 7,7 % | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 280,5 mil M US$ | 37,4 mil M US$ | 11,6 mil M US$ | 38,5 mil M US$ | 21,7 mil M US$ | 16,9 mil M US$ | 21,8 mil M US$ | 6864 M US$ | — | — | — | -24,3 mil M US$ | -10,1 mil M US$ | 32,2 mil M US$ | 36,4 mil M US$ | 55 mil M US$ | 24,8 mil M US$ | 5,2 % | — | 6,6 % | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 386,1 mil M US$ | 48,1 mil M US$ | 21,3 mil M US$ | 66,1 mil M US$ | 25,9 mil M US$ | 40,1 mil M US$ | 25,2 mil M US$ | 9208 M US$ | 0 US$ | — | — | -59,6 mil M US$ | -1104 M US$ | 36,4 mil M US$ | 42,4 mil M US$ | 84,4 mil M US$ | 33,2 mil M US$ | 5,9 % | — | 4,5 % | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 469,8 mil M US$ | 59,3 mil M US$ | 33,4 mil M US$ | 46,3 mil M US$ | -14,7 mil M US$ | 61,1 mil M US$ | 34,4 mil M US$ | 12,8 mil M US$ | 0 US$ | — | — | -58,2 mil M US$ | 6291 M US$ | 42,4 mil M US$ | 36,5 mil M US$ | 96 mil M US$ | 50,6 mil M US$ | 5,3 % | — | 5,0 % | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 514 mil M US$ | 54,2 mil M US$ | -2722 M US$ | 46,8 mil M US$ | -16,9 mil M US$ | 63,6 mil M US$ | 41,9 mil M US$ | 19,6 mil M US$ | 6000 M US$ | — | 15,7 mil M US$ | -37,6 mil M US$ | 9718 M US$ | 36,5 mil M US$ | 54,3 mil M US$ | 70 mil M US$ | 70,5 mil M US$ | 2,4 % | — | 7,8 % | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 574,8 mil M US$ | 85,5 mil M US$ | 30,4 mil M US$ | 84,9 mil M US$ | 32,2 mil M US$ | 52,7 mil M US$ | 48,7 mil M US$ | 24 mil M US$ | 0 US$ | — | -15,9 mil M US$ | -49,8 mil M US$ | -15,9 mil M US$ | 54,3 mil M US$ | 73,9 mil M US$ | 86,8 mil M US$ | 67,2 mil M US$ | 6,4 % | — | 8,1 % | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 638 mil M US$ | 123,8 mil M US$ | 59,2 mil M US$ | 115,9 mil M US$ | 32,9 mil M US$ | 83 mil M US$ | 52,8 mil M US$ | 22 mil M US$ | 0 US$ | — | -11,8 mil M US$ | -94,3 mil M US$ | -11,8 mil M US$ | 73,9 mil M US$ | 82,3 mil M US$ | 101,2 mil M US$ | 58 mil M US$ | 10,8 % | — | 8,9 % | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 716,9 mil M US$ | 165,3 mil M US$ | 77,7 mil M US$ | 139,5 mil M US$ | 7695 M US$ | 131,8 mil M US$ | 65,8 mil M US$ | 19,5 mil M US$ | — | — | 9661 M US$ | -142,5 mil M US$ | 9661 M US$ | 82,3 mil M US$ | 90,1 mil M US$ | 123 mil M US$ | 68,8 mil M US$ | 11,2 % | — | 9,9 % | — |
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) trades at 24.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 27.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.3x compares with a peer median of 30.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: eBay Inc., DoorDash Inc., MercadoLibre, Inc. and Airbnb Inc., as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-08.
Capital expenditure increased from $52.73 billion in FY2023 to $131.82 billion in FY2025. In Q2 2026 remarks, management expected roughly $220 billion of FY2026 cash capital expenditure.46
In Q2 2026, management said cloud demand exceeded available capacity and reported reservations extending into FY2028. Added power could remove supply limits if those reservations become sustained customer use.
New capacity could arrive before profitable use. Depreciation and reinvestment would stay elevated if slower sales growth leaves infrastructure underused.
For FY2025, AWS was the clearest growth lever, while North America remained the revenue foundation.7
Minimal or zero exposure under the Sell rating because the report-date price exceeds Fair value and Potential value.. The report-date price is above Fair value and Potential value, while cash recovery still depends on successful capacity use.3
Keep the Sell stance and do not increase exposure. Exit if AWS growth falls below 15% for two consecutive fiscal years through FY2029. Reconsider only after diluted shares stop rising and free cash flow improves for two fiscal years.
The report-date price exceeds both Fair value and Potential value.3
Reserved cloud capacity supports growth, but the evidence does not yet establish utilization economics beyond FY2028.4
High capital expenditure and low FY2025 free cash flow leave the thesis dependent on a later cash recovery.56
Sell: the report-date price of $258.51 exceeds Fair value of $183.76 and Potential value of $225.57.3
In Q2 2026, management reported cloud-capacity reservations through FY2028. That provides dated demand visibility, but FY2025 high capital spending had not yet produced strong free cash flow.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
AWS growth below 15% for two consecutive fiscal years would signal weak utilization, reducing cloud-mix support for consolidated revenue and profit.47
FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS below $8.70 would show that revenue growth is not converting into per-share earnings, weakening the expected recovery.1
A cost of equity above 11.7639% would make long-dated earnings worth less before operating gains could offset the higher required return.2
Because management’s Q2 2026 remarks describe reservations rather than realized use, weak conversion would reduce AWS sales and the expected cloud-mix lift to consolidated profit.
Actual:Most FY2027 capacity and some FY2028 capacity were described as reserved.
Alerta siAWS annual revenue growth below 15% for two consecutive fiscal years through FY2029.
A result below the defined range would show that Amazon's revenue is not overcoming investment, margin, tax, or dilution pressure at the per-share level.
Actual:The FY2027 provider-adjusted diluted EPS forecast ranges from $8.70 to $15.04 per share, with a $10.49 mean, as of 2026-09-08.
Alerta siBelow $8.70 per diluted share for FY2027.
A higher required return would reduce what investors pay for distant earnings while heavy capital spending still delays near-term cash.
Actual:9.7639% as of 2026-09-08.
Alerta siAbove 11.7639% within 12 months.
Sustained weakness would directly reduce the contribution from Amazon’s largest operating segment and weaken consolidated revenue growth. The evidence does not by itself establish a specific pricing or delivery-spending response.
Actual:$426.31 billion of FY2025 revenue.
Alerta siBelow 5% annual growth for two consecutive fiscal years through FY2030.
| Marketplace, delivery, international-commerce, and travel platforms compete for transactions or consumer spending. | medium | Ongoing | The peer set shows materially different growth and margin profiles, so it is only a comparison check. It does not establish direct share loss or higher fulfillment costs. |
Under the moderate discount rate, 76,80 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 108 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 185 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 70.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
Shows per-share profit.1
Weakness drags sales.7
Issuance dilutes gains.6
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $828.48B | $945.85B | $1.06T | $1.17T | $1.28T | $1.39T | $1.50T | $1.60T | $1.70T | $1.79T |
| Revenue growth | 15.6% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 16.3% |
| Operating income | $96.03B | $114.89B | $134.23B | $155.33B | $177.11B | $200.32B | $224.01B | $247.78B | $271.07B | $292.15B |
| Tax rate | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| NOPAT | $79.29B | $94.86B | $110.83B | $128.26B | $146.24B | $165.40B | $184.96B | $204.59B | $223.83B | $241.23B |
| Reinvestment | $67.30B | $66.17B | $60.55B | $50.67B | $35.66B | $39.90B | $44.14B | $48.29B | $52.25B | $55.68B |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 84.9% | 69.8% | 54.6% | 39.5% | 24.4% | 24.1% | 23.9% | 23.6% | 23.3% | 23.1% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $75.99B | $86.75B | $97.16B | $107.59B | $117.65B | $127.63B | $137.35B | $146.73B | $155.73B | $164.14B |
| Free cash flow to firm | $11.99B | $28.69B | $50.28B | $77.58B | $110.58B | $125.50B | $140.82B | $156.30B | $171.58B | $185.55B |
| North America revenue | $492.61B | $562.40B | $629.89B | $697.47B | $762.71B | $827.40B | $890.40B | $951.21B | $1.01T | $1.06T |
| International revenue | $187.07B | $213.57B | $239.20B | $264.86B | $289.64B | $314.20B | $338.13B | $361.22B | $383.38B | $404.08B |
| Amazon Web Services revenue | $148.79B | $169.87B | $190.26B | $210.67B | $230.38B | $249.92B | $268.95B | $287.32B | $304.94B | $321.41B |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Margen |
|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | $2.79T | 24.2x | 3.6x | 17.3x | 30.6% | — |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 15.4x | 3.8x | 16.1x | 46.6% | 21.6% | |
| DASH | DoorDash Inc. | 26.0x | 5.8x | 62.5x | 8.9% | 3.9% | |
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | 30.9x | 2.9x | 24.9x | 31.3% | 6.9% | |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc. | 29.6x | 8.3x | 35.4x | 34.5% | 21.0% |
| Below 5% for two consecutive fiscal years through FY2030. |
| Exit remaining exposure because weakness in the revenue foundation would lower consolidated sales and margins.7 |
