Con tu permiso, usamos análisis limitados y respetuosos con la privacidad para entender qué recorridos de investigación funcionan. No usamos rastreadores publicitarios ni grabación de sesiones. Puedes cambiar esta opción en Preferencias. Lee la Política de privacidad.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
AXON — frequently asked questions
Is Axon Enterprise Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, AXON looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 413 USD versus our fair value of 219 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 345 USD. That implies roughly 47.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives AXON a fair value of 219 USD and a potential value of 345 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Axon Enterprise Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy AXON now?
Our latest published rating for AXON, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell. Axon Enterprise Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 413 USD versus fair value of 219 USD; potential value is 345 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for AXON?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Axon Enterprise Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is AXON's rating?
Our latest published rating for AXON, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 219 USD, the potential value of 345 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (413 USD).
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.
§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosSell
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$413.35
Valor razonable
$219.27
Valor potencial
$345.49
A fecha de
2026-10-02
Por qué puede funcionar
Accelerated adoption of Evidence.com cloud software modules and AI-enabled drafting across state, local, and international agencies, driving Software and Sensors revenue (which reached $1,202.67M in FY2025) beyond 50% of net sales, unlocking substantial operating leverage as manufacturing capital expenditures ($136.26M in FY2025) normalize toward steady-state levels.
We assign a Sell rating to Axon Enterprise Inc. While Axon commands a defensible narrow competitive moat through its integrated hardware and Evidence.com software ecosystem, the current valuation of 58.14x forward earnings leaves no margin of safety against persistent stock-based compensationdilution ($634.23M in FY2025) and extended municipal budget procurement cycles.4,
At the current trading price of $413.35 as of October 2, 2026, Axon Enterprise Inc. This multiple reflects a substantial premium over traditional aerospace and defense peers such as L3Harris at 17.48x and TransDigm at 22.57x. While Axon's software platform characteristics support a valuation premium over defense contractors, the current stock price implies aggressive multi-year earnings compounding that discounts little operational friction or multiple mean-reversion.3,4
The primary driver of our Sell rating is the pronounced divergence between Axon's GAAP operating profitability and its elevated equity valuation. For FY2025, Axon recorded GAAP revenue of $2,779.54M and gross profit of $1,658.13M (59.65% gross margin), yet generated a GAAP operating loss of -$62.08M (-2.23% operating margin). Operating losses were heavily driven by $634.23M in stock-based compensation, which absorbed 22.82% of net revenue. While non-GAAP adjustments add back this expense, equity dilution has expanded diluted shares from 75.46M in FY2023 to 82.37M in FY2025, siphoning substantial economic value away from per-share compounding.8
Capital expenditure intensity has also constrained realized cash conversion across recent periods. Capital expenditures rose from $59.64M in FY2023 to $78.79M in FY2024 and peaked at $136.26M in FY2025 (1.64x annual depreciation of $83.16M) as Axon built automated manufacturing tooling for TASER 10. This capital cycle limited FY2025 free cash flow to $75.08M despite operating cash flow of $211.34M. Although Q2 2026 capex moderated to $21.05M ($22.95M YTD) and management targets $450M in full-year free cash flow, sustaining this cash flow pace requires frictionless municipal budget conversion.5,6,7,8
Axon continues to possess structural competitive strengths supporting a narrow economic moat (score 7.5), anchored by high customer switching costs in Evidence.com and strong officer mindshare. Software and Sensors revenue reached $1,202.67M in FY2025 (43.27% of net sales), while Connected Devices contributed $1,576.86M. In Q2 2026, 5-year normalized bookings expanded over 30%, Outpost and Lightpost rolling 12-month bookings reached ~$100M, and agencies canceled competitor contracts early to switch to Axon. However, with non-US revenue representing only 17.07% of sales ($474.52M in FY2025), international expansion face regulatory hurdles. Given the extreme valuation premium, we advise reducing exposure.5,9
Evidence.com Cloud Platform Workflow Lock-In
Software and Sensors revenue reached $1,202.67M in FY2025 (43.27% of net sales), generating high gross margins (59.65% consolidated) and deep workflow lock-in as public safety agencies rely on Evidence.com for evidentiary chain-of-custody.5,8,9
Accelerating Normalized Bookings and Hardware Replacements
In Q2 2026, 5-year normalized bookings expanded over 30%, Outpost and Lightpost rolling 12-month bookings reached ~$100M, and agencies canceled competitor contracts early to migrate to Axon, reinforcing management's $450M full-year FCFguidance.5
Under-Penetrated International Expansion Runway
Non-US revenue accounted for only $474.52M (17.07% of net sales) in FY2025, providing a multi-year global adoption runway across Commonwealth nations, Western Europe, and Latin America as agencies modernize evidence management.5,9
Recomendación de la casa
Despite Axon's formidable narrow platform moat in law enforcement cloud software, a valuation of 58.14x forward earnings prices in near-frictionless operational expansion and fails to reflect persistent stock-based compensationdilution ($634.23M in FY2025) and capital reinvestment requirements, warranting a Sell rating.4,8,9
Descripción general de la empresa
The key competitive factors in this product category include a device’s accuracy, effectiveness, reputation, safety, cost, ease of use, and exceptional customer experience. The design maturity of the TASER platform, as well as its development and sale of a multi-shot device, are also key competitive differentiators. AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. is aware of competitors providing competing CED products primarily outside of the United States. 1.Software and Services: AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. develops, manufacture and sell cloud-based Software-as-a-Service (“SaaS”) solutions that leverage AI and enable its customers to capture, securely store, manage, share and analyze video and other digital evidence. Its software offerings also support productivity and real-time operations.
Its offerings include Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, and Axon Assistant, among others. In addition to subscription SaaS revenue, this segment includes non-recurring professional services revenue supporting implementation, configuration, and ongoing workflow integration, as well as revenue from certain on-premise software licenses.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
Under a compounded stress test where municipal law enforcement budget freezes collide with federal grant expirations, revenue growth decelerates from the modeled 33.29% baseline down to 12.0% annually. Concurrently, ongoing equity compensation exceeding 20% of revenue prevents GAAP operating margins from expanding beyond single digits, leaving diluted average shares to compound past 93 million. When combined with an equity re-rating that deflates Axon's forward P/E from 58.14x down toward peer benchmarks like L3Harris at 17.48x, enterprise valuation contracts severely. Under this stress scenario, intrinsic equity value compresses toward fundamental cash flow support, representing an asymmetric downside exposure against the current trading price of $413.35.
Under the Bear scenario, municipal law enforcement agencies encounter budget freezes and legislative delays that prolong hardware replacement intervals for TASER systems and body cameras. Concurrently, public safety anti-surveillance pushback and international sovereign data restrictions impede software expansion. Elevated stock-based compensation continues to dilute per-share equity value, while operating margins fail to achieve modeled operating leverage. As top-line growth decelerates, market valuation compresses toward aerospace and defense peer medians, causing severe capital impairment.
Axon's current valuation multiple of 58.14x forward P/E carries an extreme premium over defense peers such as L3Harris at 17.48x and TransDigm at 22.57x. If municipal procurement budget freezes delay hardware refresh cycles, compressing the valuation multiple below 20.0x toward defense peer averages over a 12-month horizon, fair value contracts by 28.5%.3,4
FV impact
-11.1%
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Signals saturation of Evidence.com attach within existing law enforcement agencies and failure of add-on software modules, disproving operating leverage assumptions.
Axon Enterprise Inc. has constructed an integrated public safety platform that combines non-lethal conducted energy devices, body-worn cameras, and the cloud-based Evidence.com ecosystem. In FY2025, consolidated revenue reached $2,779.54M, split between Connected Devices ($1,576.86M, 56.7% of sales) and Software and Sensors ($1,202.67M, 43.3% of sales). By deploying hardware devices on multi-year subscription bundles, Axon establishes an essential physical foothold in municipal police departments, subsequently capturing recurring software revenue through digital evidence storage, automated redaction, and records management.
The durability of Axon's competitive moat is rooted in the high switching costs of its Evidence.com software suite and the operational network effects of its expanding product ecosystem. Law enforcement agencies face steep technological, legal, and operational risks if they attempt to migrate terabytes of chain-of-custody evidentiary video to competing platforms. COO Josh Isner highlighted that law enforcement agencies are actively terminating competitor contracts early to adopt Axon's integrated suite. Furthermore, newer product lines such as Outpost and Lightpost generated ~$100M in rolling 12-month bookings, demonstrating Axon's capacity to cross-sell new hardware and software capabilities across its established customer relationships.
Against traditional aerospace and defense contractors, Axon maintains structural advantages. Defense primes such as L3Harris generate lower gross margins (LHX gross margin 25.48%) compared to Axon's consolidated gross margin of 59.65% ($1,658.13M gross profit in FY2025). Defense primes lack the municipal sales force, local government procurement relationships, and evidentiary compliance cloud software necessary to contest Axon's core law enforcement franchise. However, because current reported GAAP operating profitability remains negative (-$62.08M operating loss in FY2025) due to $634.23M in stock-based compensation, the moat rating is capped at Narrow (score 7.5) until sustained operating leverage produces GAAP returns above the 10.43% cost of capital.
Beneficio económico
Axon's reported economic profit is currently negative on a GAAP accounting basis due to substantial upfront operational spending. In FY2025, Axon recorded a GAAP operating loss of -$62.08M (-2.23% operating margin) on $2,779.54M of revenue, resulting in a trailing ROIC of -10.12%, which sits well below its computed WACC of 10.43% and moderate cost of equity of 10.21%. This drag is driven primarily by $634.23M in stock-based compensation alongside elevated R&D and SG&A expenses. However, normalized economic value creation is projected to inflect sharply as the house forecast models operating margins reaching 15.0% in FY2026 ($555.73M EBIT) and expanding to 24.5% by FY2030 ($1,992.06M EBIT) as recurring software subscription revenue scales.
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01High Customer Switching Costs in Digital Evidence Management — Evidence.com serves as the mission-critical cloud repository for video data, audit trails, and legal evidentiary chains of custody across public safety agencies. With Software and Sensors revenue reaching $1,202.67M in FY2025 (43.3% of total revenue), agency data integrations create extreme friction against migrating to rival point solutions, leading agencies to cancel competitor contracts early to consolidate onto Axon.Wide
02Proprietary Hardware Intellectual Property and Regulatory Compliance Intangibles — Axon holds dominant proprietary technology in conducted energy weapons with TASER 10, generating $1,576.86M in FY2025 Connected Devices revenue. The extensive patent portfolio, municipal training certifications, and policy standardization create severe barriers to entry for potential hardware substitutes.
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Public safety anti-surveillance pushback and strict data privacy regulations restricting video and biometric AI deployment.
medium
12-24 months
Axon engages ethics advisory boards, designs privacy-by-design redacting software, and structures strict client-governed data permissions.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($219.27). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $290.4M after modeled reinvestment of $237.6M, with terminal value at 76.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Terminal valuation multiples reflect premium public safety software characteristics, discounted at the estimated cost of capital.
The Base case reflects the house forecast schedule where top-line expansion tracks consensus expectations through FY2026 and FY2027. Operating margins expand steadily from the FY2025 operating loss through FY2030 as Software and Sensors continues to outpace Connected Devices. Stock-based compensation expense is absorbed via modeled share count expansion, supporting the Base path target of $219.27.1,8,9
Revenue expansion accelerates significantly through FY2030, driven by rapid international market adoption and federal agency contracts.
Software and Sensors expands to represent the majority of net sales, elevating corporate substantially.
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine software attach momentum and free cash flow delivery, keeping a consistent defensive posture that avoids deploying incremental capital into an overextended valuation without a margin of safety.
Disparador: Quarterly revenue exceeding $1,102.52M (high end of consensus $1,059.62M mean), diluted EPS exceeding $2.84 (high end of consensus $2.27 mean), and multi-year normalized bookings growth accelerating above recent quarterly trends.5
Even if operational execution surpasses consensus expectations, forward valuation of 58.14x P/E already prices in aggressive multi-year compounding, leaving the stock trading at a substantial premium to Fair value $219.27. A beat reinforces operational durability but does not provide an attractive margin of safety.
Disparador: Quarterly revenue matching consensus mean of $1,059.62M, diluted EPS of approximately $2.27, and normalized bookings expansion consistent with recent commentary.5
In-line results validate the forecast trajectory but provide no valuation catalyst to overcome the severe valuation gap against Fair value $219.27.
Fallo
Exit the position; Close out remaining holdings and eliminate exposure to avoid compounding downside toward fundamental cash flow support.
With the stock trading at 58.14x forward P/E, any growth slowdown or margin shortfall triggers violent multiple compression toward mature defense contractor averages (LHX 17.48x, NOC 15.70x).
Calidad de los beneficios
Axon's earnings quality is characterized by a significant disparity between reported GAAP results and provider-adjusted operating figures. In FY2025, Axon reported GAAP net income of $124.66M and diluted EPS of $1.51, yet GAAP operating income was negative at -$62.08M. This discrepancy is driven by $634.23M in stock-based compensation, which is added back in adjusted figures, alongside discrete windfall tax benefits on equity vesting. Furthermore, high deferred revenue balances from upfront multi-year contracts provide revenue predictability but require careful reconciliation against actual cash collections and inventory commitments.8
Operating cash flow was $211.34M in FY2025, supporting free cash flow of $75.08M after deducting $136.26M in capex. Cash flow conversion was dampened by working capital absorption and inventory investments for the TASER 10 ramp. In Q2 2026, capex subsided to $21.05M ($22.95M YTD), aligning with CFO Brittany Bagley's affirmation of strong full-year free cash flow line of sight toward $450M guidance.5,6,7,8
Asignación de capital
Axon allocates 100% of capital toward internal organic expansion, product development, and targeted capability acquisitions, paying zero dividends. In FY2025, reached $136.26M alongside heavy R&D expensing, while totaled $634.23M (22.82% of ), which diluted average shares to 82.37M. Strategic acquisitions including Carbyne and Prepared were integrated directly into Axon 911 to consolidate dispatch software capabilities, reinforcing platform lock-in.
Axon's capital productivity reflects a classic hyper-growth transition. The front-loaded manufacturing investments ($136.26M capex in FY2025) and high equity incentives expand the customer base and software ecosystem, after which incremental recurring subscription revenues flow through at high gross margins (59.65% in FY2025), driving substantial economic value creation.
In FY2025, Axon generated an accounting operating loss of -$62.08M, resulting in a trailing ROIC of -10.12%, well below the computed WACC of 10.43%. This negative spread is temporary, caused by front-loaded R&D ($684.31M) and $634.23M in stock-based compensation. As EBIT margins expand from 15.0% in FY2026 to 24.5% by FY2030 in the house forecast schedule, forward ROIC improves to exceed WACC by more than 12 percentage points.
Ingresos más recientes2779,5 M US$CAGR de ingresos +29,7 %
Margen operativo-2,2 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente75,1 M US$FY2025
Deuda neta104,2 M US$FY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Ingresos2779,5 M US$Coste de ventas−1121,4 M US$Beneficio bruto1658,1 M US$Gastos operativos−1720,2 M US$Beneficio operativo-62,1 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos+186,7 M US$Beneficio neto124,7 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
2.779.536.000 US$
Coste de ventas
1.121.411.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
1.658.125.000 US$
Gastos operativos
1.720.201.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
-62.076.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
186.732.000 US$
Beneficio neto
124.656.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales7000,3 M US$Efectivo1201,1 M US$Activos corrientes3713,1 M US$Pasivos totales3757,7 M US$Pasivos corrientes1470,1 M US$Patrimonio neto3242,7 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
7.000.313.000 US$
Efectivo
1.201.147.000 US$
Activos corrientes
3.713.052.000 US$
Pasivos totales
3.757.655.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
1.470.147.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
3.242.658.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto124,7 M US$Depreciación y amortización+83,2 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+634,2 M US$Otros ajustes operativos−630,7 M US$Flujo de caja operativo211,3 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial466,8 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+211,3 M US$Flujo de inversión−724,9 M US$Flujo de financiación+1252,5 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio+7,8 M US$Efectivo final1213,4 M US$
211,3 M US$ − 136,3 M US$Flujo de caja libre 75,1 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
124.656.000 US$
Entrada operativa
842.048.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
83.161.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
634.231.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
211.339.000 US$
Salida operativa
630.709.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
1.938.323.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
466.763.000 US$
Entrada de financiación
1.252.465.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
7.756.000 US$
Salida de inversión
724.930.000 US$
Capex
136.258.000 US$
Otras actividades de inversión
588.672.000 US$
Efectivo final
1.213.393.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-724.930.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
1.252.465.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
2779,5 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Connected Devices1576,9 M US$56,7 %+29,1 % interanual
Software And Sensors1202,7 M US$43,3 %+39,6 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Connected Devices
1576,9 M US$
56,7 %
29,1 %
Software And Sensors
1202,7 M US$
43,3 %
39,6 %
Ingresos por regiónProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
2779,5 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por regiónProporción
United States2305 M US$82,9 %+29,8 % interanual
Non Us474,5 M US$17,1 %+54,4 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por región
Ingresos por región
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
United States
2305 M US$
82,9 %
29,8 %
Non Us
474,5 M US$
17,1 %
54,4 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-03.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
268,2 M US$
35,2 M US$
17,3 M US$
21,1 M US$
16,2 M US$
5 M US$
3,7 M US$
9,4 M US$
33,7 M US$
0 US$
—
-3 M US$
-34,6 M US$
—
44 M US$
89,1 M US$
118 mil US$
11,9 %
—
6,7 %
—
2017-12-31
343,8 M US$
23,8 M US$
5,2 M US$
18,5 M US$
8,1 M US$
10,4 M US$
8 M US$
15,6 M US$
0 US$
0 US$
—
19,1 M US$
-3,8 M US$
44 M US$
78,4 M US$
82 M US$
41 mil US$
3,8 %
—
7,7 %
—
2018-12-31
420,1 M US$
38,7 M US$
29,2 M US$
63,9 M US$
52,7 M US$
11,1 M US$
10,6 M US$
21,9 M US$
0 US$
—
—
-9,9 M US$
219,3 M US$
78,4 M US$
351 M US$
349,5 M US$
37 mil US$
5,9 %
—
8,2 %
—
2019-12-31
530,9 M US$
13,4 M US$
882 mil US$
65,7 M US$
49,7 M US$
15,9 M US$
11,4 M US$
78,5 M US$
—
—
—
-240,7 M US$
-3,9 M US$
351 M US$
172,4 M US$
350,8 M US$
10,6 M US$
-1,2 %
—
6,3 %
—
2020-12-31
681 M US$
6,3 M US$
-1,7 M US$
38,5 M US$
-34,1 M US$
72,6 M US$
12,5 M US$
133,6 M US$
—
—
—
-356,5 M US$
299,3 M US$
172,4 M US$
155,6 M US$
562 M US$
24,4 M US$
-2,1 %
—
4,9 %
—
2021-12-31
863,4 M US$
-117,1 M US$
-60 M US$
124,5 M US$
74,6 M US$
49,9 M US$
18,7 M US$
303,3 M US$
—
—
—
252,6 M US$
-174,2 M US$
155,6 M US$
356,4 M US$
370,8 M US$
20,4 M US$
-19,5 %
—
5,0 %
—
2022-12-31
1187,1 M US$
227,6 M US$
146,9 M US$
235,4 M US$
179,6 M US$
55,8 M US$
23,1 M US$
106,2 M US$
74 mil US$
603 M US$
673,8 M US$
-831 M US$
598,1 M US$
356,4 M US$
355,6 M US$
935,5 M US$
711,1 M US$
7,8 %
—
8,1 %
—
2023-12-31
1560,7 M US$
183,4 M US$
175,8 M US$
189,3 M US$
129,6 M US$
59,6 M US$
19,3 M US$
131,4 M US$
—
—
0 US$
12,5 M US$
41,3 M US$
355,6 M US$
600,7 M US$
1242,6 M US$
710,7 M US$
10,1 %
—
7,8 %
—
2024-12-31
2082,5 M US$
437 M US$
377 M US$
408,3 M US$
329,5 M US$
78,8 M US$
48,4 M US$
382,6 M US$
—
—
0 US$
-490,6 M US$
-45,4 M US$
600,7 M US$
466,8 M US$
788,1 M US$
680,3 M US$
2,8 %
—
8,8 %
—
2025-12-31
2779,5 M US$
196,4 M US$
124,7 M US$
211,3 M US$
75,1 M US$
136,3 M US$
83,2 M US$
634,2 M US$
—
—
1750 M US$
-724,9 M US$
1252,5 M US$
466,8 M US$
1213,4 M US$
1706,6 M US$
1810,7 M US$
-2,2 %
—
9,0 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Axon Enterprise Inc.AXON
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable219,27 US$Report-date price413,35 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión61 / 100
L3Harris Technologies Inc.LHX
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable228,61 US$Report-date price236,6 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión65 / 100
TransDigm Group IncorporatedTDG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable1148,16 US$Report-date price1113,01 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión71 / 100
Axon Enterprise Inc.AXON
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable219,27 US$Report-date price413,35 US$
Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) trades at 58.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 210.4x compares with a peer median of 13.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: L3Harris Technologies Inc., Rocket Lab Corporation, TransDigm Group Incorporated and Northrop Grumman Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Peak
Axon's capital expenditure expanded from $59.64M in FY2023 to $78.79M in FY2024 and peaked at $136.26M in FY2025 (4.90% of revenue and 1.64x D&A of $83.16M) to establish automated manufacturing lines for TASER 10. In Q2 2026, capex subsided to $21.05M ($22.95M YTD), while aerospace and defense industry benchmarks reflect normalized capex-to-revenue of 0.8% and capex-to-depreciation of 0.95x.6,8
Ciclo alcista
Accelerating federal agency procurement, international modernization programs across Tier-1 democracies, and rapid adoption of AI-enabled records management and real-time operations (Outpost/Lightpost bookings reaching ~$100M), driving 30%+ top-line growth.
Ciclo bajista
Municipal tax revenue contraction, local budget reallocation away from policing hardware, delays in federal grant disbursements, and public pushback against surveillance technologies.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Digital Transformation and Cloud Evidence Consolidation in Public Safety
positive
Law enforcement agencies are shifting from fragmented on-premises storage to secure cloud platforms, accelerating Software and Sensors revenue to $1,202.67M in FY2025 and driving 5-year normalized bookings growth over 30%.
Shift Toward Non-Lethal Force and Evidentiary Accountability
positive
Posicionamiento
Axon occupies an entrenched, quasi-monopolistic position across municipal law enforcement in the United States, which generated $2,305.01M (82.93% of sales) in FY2025. Its hardware installed base in TASER devices and body cameras locks agencies into long-term Evidence.com cloud subscriptions, creating high barriers that traditional defense contractors like L3Harris and Northrop Grumman cannot overcome.3,9
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
0%
Under the committee's Sell rating, the recommended position allocation is 0%. Axon trades at $413.35, representing an 88.5% premium over the synthesized fair value midpoint of $219.27 and a forward P/E of 58.14x. High conviction in this underweight stance is driven by the stark disconnect between reported GAAP operating losses (-$62.08M in FY2025), heavy stock-based compensationdilution ($634.23M in FY2025), and excessive market valuation multiples relative to mature defense contractors.3,4,8
Riesgo
Active risk management requires monitoring municipal budget trends, tracking federal grant renewal cycles, and scrutinizing quarterly filings for share countdilution. Axon's raw beta of 1.3826 and adjusted beta of 1.2012 denote elevated equity volatility. Portfolios with institutional mandate constraints should hedge long technology exposure with aerospace and defense peers (such as L3Harris, NOC, or TDG) to insulate capital from market-wide valuation de-rating.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
$219.27
Fundamental valuation checkpoint to assess whether operating margin expansion has materialized.
Represents the house fair value midpoint where risk-adjusted expected return transitions to neutral.
$165.18
Secondary re-evaluation point for selective long re-entry under conservative multiple assumptions.
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
$413.35
Liquidate existing long holdings at current market levels to capture substantial market premiums.
$462.33
Exhaustive exit of any remaining legacy holdings if short-term speculative momentum pushes price toward the 5-year undiscounted base target.
Reconfirm sell posture and lower normalized terminal margin assumptions in valuation models.9
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Value / Fundamental Investor
Avoid
Trading at 58.14x forward earnings and an 88.51% premium to fair value ($219.27), Axon offers negative implied return (-46.95%) and zero margin of safety against GAAP operating losses (-$62.08M in FY2025).4,8
Growth / Momentum Investor
Avoid
Although top-line growth and bookings remain robust (>30% 5-year normalized bookings), heavy stock-based compensation of $634.23M (22.82% of revenue) significantly dilutes per-share compounding, while the current multiple leaves severe downside in any procurement slowdown.5,8
Income / Total Return Investor
Avoid
Axon pays zero dividends and reinvests capital aggressively into manufacturing automation ($136.26M capex in FY2025), delivering compressed free cash flow of $75.08M that fails to support total return at a $413.35 market price.4,7,8
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Vender
At $413.35 as of October 2, 2026, the market trades at 58.14x forward earnings, discounting 43.60% long-term earnings expansion. This pricing leaves no buffer for the reality of FY2025 GAAP operating losses (-$62.08M), high stock-based compensationdilution ($634.23M), or capital reinvestment burdens ($136.26M capex).4,8
While Axon maintains a defensible narrow competitive moat powered by Evidence.com customer switching costs and >30% 5-year normalized bookings growth, the risk-reward skew is highly unfavorable. Investors should take profits or reduce exposure until share prices converge toward intrinsic value.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-03 · Published 2026-10-03 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Caso bajista, Escenarios
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Severe Public Safety Budget Contraction and Growth Stagnation
The house forecast models 33.29% revenue growth in FY2026 and 29.33% in FY2027 ($4,791.83M consensus). If federal grant programs face cuts and municipal tax receipts decline, causing sales growth across Connected Devices ($1,576.86M in FY2025) and Software ($1,202.67M in FY2025) to drop below 15.0% over a 36-month horizon, fair value contracts by 41.0%.1,9
FV impact
-13.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Indicates permanent structural capital intensity in manufacturing automation rather than a temporary investment cycle, depressing free cash flow conversion.
Indicates competitive discounting or commoditization of hardware and video capture from defense or commercial competitors, eroding platform pricing power.
03Integrated Public Safety Workflow Software Network Effects — Axon's software platform connects dispatch, field operations, in-car cameras, drones, and records management, enhanced by the integration of Carbyne and Prepared into Axon 911. As regional agencies interconnect evidence-sharing workflows, ecosystem utility expands, supporting 5-year normalized bookings growth exceeding 30%.Moderate
Transitioning equity incentive plans toward operating cash flow performance thresholds and leveraging scale to moderate share dilution toward 1.5% annually.
Sovereign procurement protectionism and local cloud residency mandates slowing international market penetration.
medium
24-36 months
Establishing localized data center partnerships with major cloud providers and tailoring non-lethal weapon specifications to regional legal frameworks.9
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (29,57 US$) plus discounted terminal value (96,67 US$) minus signed per current share (1,28 US$) equals the 125 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Terminal valuation multiples hold at an elevated premium to broader market averages.
Under the Bull scenario, Axon accelerates adoption across federal agencies and international law enforcement jurisdictions, expanding non-US revenue as a share of consolidated sales. Accelerated attach of Evidence.com add-on modules, including automated draft reporting and real-time operations, lifts Software and Sensors revenue to become the primary driver of top-line scale. Gross margins expand as cloud software mix increases, while operating leverage drives operating margins higher. Free cash flow conversion expands rapidly as capital expenditures normalize, supporting robust earnings compounding toward the Bull path target of $345.49.
ActualFY2025 capex peaked at $136.26M; Q2 2026 capex moderated to $21.05M with full-year free cash flowguidance affirmed.
Por qué importa
Validates whether the conducted energy device manufacturing tooling cycle has peaked, allowing cash generation to reach management guidance.
04
Métrica:
International Revenue Expansion and Market Penetration
ActualNon-US revenue generated $474.52M in FY2025, accounting for 17.07% of consolidated sales.
Por qué importa
International adoption provides the long-term addressable market expansion necessary to sustain robust top-line growth beyond the mature domestic law enforcement base.
05
Métrica:
Gross Margin Durability vs Aerospace and Defense Competitors
ActualFY2025 gross margin was 59.65% ($1,658.13M gross profit), compared to peer L3Harris at 25.48%.
Por qué importa
Protects the software-enabled pricing power that justifies Axon's valuation multiple premium over hardware-centric defense primes.
Software and Sensors revenue reached $1,202.67M in FY2025 (43.27% of sales), supporting consolidated gross margin of 59.65% with $1,658.13M in gross profit.
As high-margin SaaS subscriptions grow faster than hardware shipments, corporate gross margins are insulated from hardware cost inflation and defense prime discounting.
Stock-based compensation of $634.23M in FY2025 represented 22.82% of revenue and drove a GAAP operating loss of -$62.08M, while diluted shares expanded to 82.37M.
Investors relying on provider-adjusted metrics fail to account for real economic dilution, which dampens per-share compounding unless share growth is explicitly modeled.
Manufacturing Tooling Buildout Has Passed Its Peak Capital Intensity
Capex jumped from $59.64M in FY2023 to $136.26M in FY2025, but moderated to $21.05M in Q2 2026 ($22.95M YTD).
Valor razonable574,82 US$Report-date price539,31 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión69 / 100
Margen
AXON
Axon Enterprise Inc.
$33.6B
58.1x
10.4x
210.4x
6.2%
—
LHX
L3Harris Technologies Inc.
$44.1B
17.5x
1.9x
13.4x
9.3%
12.6%
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
$47.3B
61.5x
-7.9%
-24.6%
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
$61.0B
22.6x
6.1x
17.9x
—
46.0%
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
$67.9B
15.7x
1.6x
11.4x
27.0%
11.6%
Societal demand for de-escalation tools and transparent policing drives widespread adoption of TASER 10 and next-generation body-worn cameras, supporting Connected Devices revenue of $1,576.86M in FY2025.
Heightened Scrutiny on Public Surveillance and Biometric AI
negative
Anti-surveillance movements and regulatory scrutiny regarding facial recognition and automated officer tracking introduce friction into municipal procurement approvals and product deployments.
