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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
COIN — frequently asked questions
Is Coinbase Global, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-10, COIN looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 201 USD versus our fair value of 126 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 169 USD. That implies roughly 37.6% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-10, gives COIN a fair value of 126 USD and a potential value of 169 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Coinbase Global, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy COIN now?
Our latest published rating for COIN, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Sell. Coinbase Global, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 201 USD versus fair value of 126 USD; potential value is 169 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for COIN?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-10 documents Coinbase Global, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is COIN's rating?
Our latest published rating for COIN, analyzed 2026-05-10, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 126 USD, the potential value of 169 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (201 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosSell
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$201.16
Valor razonable
$125.50
Valor potencial
$169.33
A fecha de
Fecha de cotización no registrada
Por qué puede funcionar
Bull: Regulatory clarity and Base L2 explosion transform Coinbase into the foundational layer of the global crypto economy, driving massive recurring subscription and services revenue that decouples from retail trading volatility.
Coinbase is the premier US cryptocurrency exchange and infrastructure provider, benefiting from growing institutional adoption and product diversification (staking, custody, Base L2). While near-term growth has contracted due to cyclical crypto market conditions, the company is poised for strong rebounds driven by institutional ETF flows and long-term blockchain integration. However, current market pricing completely disconnects from this fundamental reality, implying a flawless hyper-bull cycle.
Coinbase is the premier US cryptocurrency exchange and infrastructure provider, benefiting from growing institutional adoption and product diversification (staking, custody, Base L2). While near-term growth has contracted due to cyclical crypto market conditions, the company is poised for strong rebounds driven by institutional ETF flows and long-term blockchain integration. However, current market pricing completely disconnects from this fundamental reality, implying a flawless hyper-bull cycle.
Institutional custody dominance and ETF
Institutional custody dominance and ETF integration
Base L2 ecosystem driving developer
Base L2 ecosystem driving developer lock-in
Cycle upside
Institutional adoption expands via ETFs, accelerating on-chain integration, scaling Base L2, and generating utility beyond speculative retail trading.
Sell. Extreme market pricing requires a sustained 33% growth rate, vastly exceeding the concrete 10.35% forward EPS projections and ignoring structural fee compression risks.
Descripción general de la empresa
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It provides the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions; and a suite of products granting access to build onchain for developers. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
A prolonged crypto winter combined with aggressive fee compression from legacy TradFi entrants forces structural margin deterioration. As trading volume shifts to zero-fee platforms, Coinbase's primary revenue engine stalls, eroding the premium assigned to its hyper-growth profile and forcing valuation multiples to align with legacy exchanges.
A prolonged crypto winter, severe SEC enforcement actions, and aggressive fee compression from legacy financial institutions entering the crypto space erode operating margins and stall user growth.
Regulatory clarity and Base L2 explosion transform Coinbase into the foundational layer of the global crypto economy, driving massive recurring subscription and services revenue that decouples from retail trading volatility.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Ingresos más recientes7181,3 MCAGR de ingresos +31,0 %
Margen operativo20,3 %5 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente2426,4 MFY2025
Caja neta3454 MFY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos7181,3 MCoste de ventas−1821,2 MBeneficio bruto5360,1 MGastos operativos−3904 MBeneficio operativo1456,1 MPartidas no operativas e impuestos−195,8 MBeneficio neto1260,3 M
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
7.181.325.000
Coste de ventas
1.821.220.000
Beneficio bruto
5.360.105.000
Gastos operativos
3.903.960.000
Beneficio operativo
1.456.145.000
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-195.818.000
Beneficio neto
1.260.327.000
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales29,7 mil MEfectivo11,3 mil MActivos corrientes20,4 mil MPasivos totales14,9 mil MPasivos corrientes8701,3 MPatrimonio neto14,8 mil M
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
29.671.832.000
Efectivo
11.285.452.000
Activos corrientes
20.388.445.000
Pasivos totales
14.878.774.000
Pasivos corrientes
8.701.282.000
Patrimonio neto
14.793.058.000
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-05-10.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31
—
—
—
—
—
82,9 M
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2022-12-31
3194,2 M
-2821,6 M
-2624,9 M
-1585,4 M
-1585,4 M
64 M
154,1 M
1565,8 M
—
—
-117 mil
—
—
—
—
4425 M
3489,7 M
-61,0 %
—
—
—
2023-12-31
3108,4 M
145,6 M
94,9 M
673,4 M
673,4 M
63,2 M
139,6 M
780,7 M
0
—
-324 M
—
—
—
—
5139,4 M
2983,8 M
-1,7 %
—
15,2 %
—
2024-12-31
6564 M
3150,8 M
2579,1 M
3103,9 M
3103,9 M
—
127,5 M
912,8 M
0
—
1320,2 M
—
—
—
—
9308,3 M
4694,1 M
34,1 %
—
14,8 %
—
2025-12-31
7181,3 M
1795,9 M
1260,3 M
2426,4 M
2426,4 M
—
188,4 M
839,4 M
790,2 M
—
3002,9 M
—
—
—
—
11,3 mil M
7831,5 M
20,3 %
—
13,0 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Coinbase Global, Inc.COIN
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable125,5 US$Report-date price201,16 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión53 / 100
S&P Global Inc.SPGI
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable355,55 US$Report-date price389,35 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
CME Group Inc.CME
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable261,16 US$Report-date price302,37 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión67 / 100
Coinbase Global, Inc.COIN
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable125,5 US$Report-date price201,16 US$
COIN trades at 42.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.1x; EV/EBITDA of 28.3x against a peer median of 18.4x; 6 peers.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
High initial capex scaling infrastructure shifts toward strong free cash flow generation as platform scale is reached and maintenance capex minimalizes.
Ciclo alcista
Institutional adoption expands via ETFs, accelerating on-chain integration, scaling Base L2, and generating utility beyond speculative retail trading.
Ciclo bajista
Cyclical drawdowns in underlying crypto asset prices suppress trading volumes, forcing consolidation and severe margin pressure across exchanges.
Posicionamiento
High initial capex scaling infrastructure shifts toward strong free cash flow generation as platform scale is reached and maintenance capex minimalizes.
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Riesgo
Divest existing positions into current cyclical momentum spikes, capitalizing on market internal valuation cross-checks over-extrapolation.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
Current / pullbacks
Avoid entry at current $201.16 premium. Reassess only if valuation compresses toward $125.50 or trailing structural metrics decouple sustainably from underlying asset price volatility.
Avoid entry at current $201.16 premium. Reassess only if valuation compresses toward $125.50 or trailing structural metrics decouple sustainably from underlying asset price volatility.
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
Thesis break
Divest existing positions into current cyclical momentum spikes, capitalizing on market internal valuation cross-checks over-extrapolation.
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
Current valuation requires ~33% sustained growth, profoundly lagging the explicit ~10% forward internal valuation cross-checks.
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Vender
Sell. A 46% disconnect exists between our weighted fair value ($125.50) and optimistic external internal valuation cross-checks. The market is dangerously over-extrapolating cyclical peaks not supported by underlying fundamental EPS estimates.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Decelerating network engagement and declining transaction activity curtail ecosystem expansion beyond speculative trading, invalidating the thesis that non-trading platform services can provide dependable counter-cyclical growth.
Actual:9.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siContracts below 0.0% year-over-year in any fiscal quarter
Institutional outflows and reduced custody asset balances reduce stable recurring fee revenue, depressing capital efficiency and preventing returns from exceeding capital costs during cyclical downturns.
Actual:5.6% as of the 2026-05-10 analysis date
Alerta siFalls below 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Inability to absorb high fixed infrastructure and compliance expenses during trading volume downturns leads to negative operating leverage, compressing profitability and aligning valuation multiples with commoditized traditional exchanges.
Actual:20.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siContracts below 15.0% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Coinbase maintains US dominance and institutional traction, but growth normalizes. Valuation corrects to align with explicit forward earnings expectations rather than extrapolating cyclical momentum, anchoring at $125.50.
Actual9.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Por qué importa
Warning level: Contracts below 0.0% year-over-year in any fiscal quarter. Decelerating network engagement and declining transaction activity curtail ecosystem expansion beyond speculative trading, invalidating the thesis that non-trading platform services can provide dependable counter-cyclical growth.
Warning level: Falls below 0.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Institutional outflows and reduced custody asset balances reduce stable recurring fee revenue, depressing capital efficiency and preventing returns from exceeding capital costs during cyclical downturns.
Warning level: Contracts below 15.0% for two consecutive quarters. Inability to absorb high fixed infrastructure and compliance expenses during trading volume downturns leads to negative operating leverage, compressing profitability and aligning valuation multiples with commoditized traditional exchanges.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.ICE
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable133,03 US$Report-date price154,31 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
Moody's CorporationMCO
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable327,35 US$Report-date price441,36 US$
