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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
ASML — frequently asked questions
Is ASML Holding N.V. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-21, ASML looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۱٬۶۸۰ versus our fair value of USD ۸۸۹; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۱٬۲۴۳. That implies roughly 47.1% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-21, gives ASML a fair value of USD ۸۸۹ and a potential value of USD ۱٬۲۴۳. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for ASML Holding N.V.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy ASML now?
Our latest published rating for ASML, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell. ASML Holding N.V. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۱٬۶۸۰ versus fair value of USD ۸۸۹; potential value is USD ۱٬۲۴۳. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for ASML?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-21 documents ASML Holding N.V.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is ASML's rating?
Our latest published rating for ASML, analyzed 2026-09-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9.5/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD ۸۸۹, the potential value of USD ۱٬۲۴۳, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۱٬۶۸۰).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیه‌ایSell
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$1,679.92
Fair value
$888.96
Potential value
$1,243.01
As of
2026-09-18
چرا این سناریو می‌تواند موفق باشد
Accelerated commercialization and volume adoption of 0.55 NA High-NA EXE systems across leading-edge logic and DRAM nodes, driving system revenue beyond 2.5B EUR annually and expanding gross margins.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر می‌دهد
China net sales declining below 4.5B EUR over a trailing 12-month period due to expanded multilateral export bans.
We issue a Sell rating on ASML. While the company commands an exceptional lithography monopoly, the report-date price of 1679.92 USD sits far above its fundamental Fair value of 888.96 USD.4
A Sell rating indicates that investors should avoid initiating new positions and consider liquidating existing holdings. Capital preservation is paramount when market expectations outpace underlying cash generation.
As of 2026-09-18, ASML traded at 1679.92 USD. This price stands 89.0% above our Fair value of 888.96 USD and 35.2% above our Potential value of 1243.01 USD, offering negative 47.08% upside to intrinsic value.
The primary risk centers on geopolitical export controls restricting deep ultraviolet tool sales to China. China contributed 9.52B EUR in FY2025 revenue; if shipments fall below 4.5B EUR, fixed factory costs would fail to adjust, compressing operating margins below 28.50%.4,6
The strongest bull case rests on ASML's complete monopoly in commercial extreme ultraviolet lithography. Expanding commercial shipments of High-NA tools, which reached 1.16B EUR in FY2025, could accelerate top-line growth and support our Potential value of 1243.01 USD.6
Monopoly in Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography
ASML is the sole global manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, generating 10.45B EUR in NXE system revenue in FY2025.6
High-NA Commercialization Cycle
Next-generation 0.55 NA systems reached 1.16B EUR in FY2025 commercial revenue, securing long-term technological leadership in sub-2nm fabrication.6
Expanding Recurring Service Revenues
Installed base management and field services expanded to 8.19B EUR in FY2025, providing stable high-margin cash flow.6
توصیه داخلی
We rate ASML a Sell because the report-date price of 1679.92 USD trades at an 89.0% premium to our Fair value of 888.96 USD, leaving investors vulnerable to China export restrictions.4,6
نمای کلی شرکت
ASML is a leading supplier to the semiconductor industry. ASML Holding N.V. provides chipmakers with hardware, software and
consist of systems, system-related options and upgrades, other holistic lithography solutions and customer services.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
A synchronized shock where Chinese DUV shipments fall below 4.5B EUR while top-four customers curtail fab tool acceptances would contract operating margin from 34.60% toward 28.50%, cutting operating cash flows and triggering severe valuation re-rating.
Tier-one foundries extend tool lifecycles and delay node transitions
Operating deleverage contracts profit margins across European facilities
Escalating trade curbs sharply curtail deep ultraviolet shipments to Chinese customers, while primary foundry clients pause capital outlays. Fixed manufacturing overhead deleverage compresses operating margins and slows cash generation. Confirmation would appear through cancellations or pushouts in reported order intake.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Severe geopolitical export embargo eliminating Chinese DUV shipments
China generated 9.52B EUR in FY2025 out of 32.67B EUR consolidated revenue; an embargo reducing China sales below 4.5B EUR creates an immediate ~15% top-line contraction and severe operating deleverage.4,6
FV impact
-11.2%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 12 months
سیگنالهای هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
01
China Annual Net Sales
Loss of Chinese mature and immersion lithography revenue removes high-margin equipment shipments without immediate replacement from Western fabs, causing fixed overhead underabsorption and curtailing consolidated gross cash generation across European manufacturing facilities.
وضعیت فعلی:9.52B EUR in FY2025
هشدار در صورتDecreases below 4.5B EUR over trailing 12 months
02
§3 خندق رقابتیEN
Wide
ASML commands a Wide economic moat anchored by an absolute monopoly in commercial extreme ultraviolet lithography systems. Proprietary optical components from Carl Zeiss, exclusive Cymer light sources, and thousands of patents create insurmountable entry barriers. Semicap peers maintain 33.74% operating margins but operate as complementary tooling providers rather than lithography competitors.
Customer switching costs are prohibitive because advanced semiconductor fab architectures are hard-coded around ASML scanner recipes. With 1.16B EUR in FY2025 EXE High-NA shipments, ASML extends its technological lead into sub-2nm nodes, ensuring ROIC remains well above its 11.41% WACC.
سود اقتصادی
ASML generates durable economic profit because commercial extreme ultraviolet lithography is a natural technological monopoly, converting 10.45B EUR in NXE system deliveries into returns far above capital costs.6
9.5/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Intangible Assets — Proprietary optical systems, specialized Zeiss partnerships, and multi-decade EUV intellectual property generated 10.45B EUR in NXE revenue in FY2025.Wide
02High Switching Costs — Leading-edge semiconductor fabs engineer entire sub-3nm processes around ASML scanners, driving 24.47B EUR in total product revenue in FY2025.Wide
تهدیدات شناخته‌شده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
Geopolitical trade curbs restricting advanced DUV immersion tool exports to China
high
12-24 months
Geographic diversification across Taiwan (8.34B EUR in FY2025 sales) and South Korea (8.16B EUR in FY2025 sales).6
Customer adoption friction or multi-patterning extensions delaying High-NA EUV transitions
ردیف‌ها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستون‌ها: رشد نهایی.
ارزش منصفانه
تغییر مدت (سال)
−۵
−۲
۰
+۲
+۵
ارزش منصفانه
$۹۰۰٫۳۳
$۸۹۳٫۰۴
$۸۸۸٫۹۶
$۸۸۵٫۳۸
$۸۸۰٫۸۲
مدت مزیت رقابتی در حالت پایهٔ مشخص‌شده: 10 سال. سایر فرض‌ها ثابت می‌مانند.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($888.96). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $13.8B after modeled reinvestment of $491.5M, with terminal value at 33.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Core extreme ultraviolet system demand compounds steadily across advanced logic and memory nodes. High-NA tools transition into commercial manufacturing while mature DUV tool shipments face moderate trade headwinds. Disconfirmation would emerge if top customer concentration translates into extended order digestion cycles by FY2027.
Cash conversion remains robust as customer advance prepayments support operational liquidity. Operating cash generation tracks reported operating profit closely, confirming high accounting durability without abnormal working capital accruals.
معیارهای مهم پیش از انتشار
01
معیار:
High-NA EUV Commercial Shipments
فعلیInitial commercial tool revenue recognized with multi-unit delivery commitments across leading accounts
چرا مهم است
Volume tool acceptance confirms sub-two-nanometer node adoption and expands average selling prices.
Free cash flow expanded to 10.65B EUR in FY2025 from 9.50B EUR in FY2024, representing an exceptional 87.6% conversion of operating cash flow. Cash generation benefited from High-NA capex digestion, with capital spending falling from 2.16B EUR in FY2024 to 1.51B EUR in FY2025.4,5
تخصیص سرمایه
Management prioritizes organic R&D and High-NA cleanroom capacity before returning surplus capital. In FY2025, operating cash flow of 12.16B EUR funded 1.51B EUR of capex, while 5.95B EUR was returned through share repurchases and 2.45B EUR via dividends, reducing diluted shares to 388.90M.
Returns on capital reflect durable monopoly rents in EUV lithography. While High-NA tool deployment requires working capital, pricing leverage preserves returns far above semicap peers.
ASML's ROIC of 39.46% delivers a 28.05 percentage point spread over its computed WACC of 11.41%.
High-NA commercialization is driving free cash flow expansion.
EXE tool revenue reached 1.16B EUR while capex fell to 1.51B EUR in FY2025.
Initial manufacturing buildout is complete, shifting High-NA into a cash-generative phase.
Installed base management provides recurring high-margin cash buffers.
Service and field option sales reached 8.19B EUR in FY2025.
Recurring service contracts decouple from quarterly system delivery lumpiness.
آخرین درآمد€ ۳۲٫۷ میلیاردنرخ رشد مرکب سالانه درآمد +۱۸٫۹٪
حاشیه سود عملیاتی۳۴٫۶٪10 دوره مالی
آخرین جریان نقد آزاد€ ۱۰٫۶ میلیاردFY2025
نقد خالص€ ۱۰٫۶ میلیاردFY2025
تفکیک صورت سود و زیانچگونگی تبدیل مقیاس کسب‌وکار به سود گزارش‌شده.۹ تیر ۱۴۰۵
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) trades at 27.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 25.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 2,657.2x compares with a peer median of 40.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Applied Materials Inc., KLA Corporation, Lam Research Corporation and Fortinet Inc., as of 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
The semicap industry capex-to-revenue ratio sits at 4.10% with capex-to-depreciation at 2.0x, while ASML capex moderated from 2.16B EUR in FY2024 to 1.51B EUR in FY2025 as EXE High-NA tools entered commercial production.4,6
چرخه صعودی
Accelerating AI accelerator fabrication and sovereign fab subsidies drive synchronized leading-edge logic and memory fab buildouts across Taiwan and South Korea.
چرخه نزولی
Tier-1 foundries digest prior capacity additions and tighten equipment budgets, pushing out lithography system installation dates and delaying High-NA tool commercial ramp schedules.
روندهای بلندمدت
روند
تأثیر
یادداشت
Artificial Intelligence Hardware Demand
positive
Growing complexity of advanced AI accelerators requires sub-3nm nodes, mandating 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV lithography systems.
Geopolitical Fab Decoupling and Onshoring
positive
Subsidized regional fab construction in the US and Europe duplicates cleanroom infrastructure and drives incremental tool demand.
Bilateral Trade and Export Control Escalation
negative
Expanding multilateral restrictions limit immersion DUV sales into China, capping ~29.1% of historical revenue.
موقعیت‌یابی
ASML sits at the apex of the semiconductor capital cycle as the sole supplier of EUV systems, capturing irreplaceable wallet share during advanced node expansions.6
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
0%
The stock trades at 1679.92 USD, an 89.0% premium over Fair value of 888.96 USD. With valuation heavily stretched, house allocation is 0%.4
ریسک
Given severe valuation stretch where market price exceeds Fair value by 89.0%, risk management mandates exiting existing positions and avoiding new capital commitments until market multiples realign with fundamentals.
Shares trade at an 89.0% premium to fundamental Fair value of 888.96 USD, providing no margin of safety.
Growth
Avoid
Even with consensus EPS expansion toward 51.72 EUR by FY2027, the report-date price of 1679.92 USD discounts growth far beyond realistic delivery rates.1,4
Income
Avoid
Capital allocation prioritizes High-NA R&D and repurchases over dividends, offering uncompelling yield alongside acute multiple downside risk.4
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
فروش
We recommend an immediate exit of existing equity positions and caution against initiating new capital commitments. ASML traded at 1679.92 USD on 2026-09-18, representing an 89.0% premium over our fundamental Fair value of 888.96 USD.4
While ASML maintains an undisputed monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography, the current valuation leaves zero margin of safety against potential China export bans or customer capex digestion.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره می‌شود.
۰ نویسه
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-21 · Published 2026-09-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for ۱ figureCited in دیدگاههای سرمایهگذاران
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Foundry customer capex pause causing severe operating deleverage
Operating income was 11.30B EUR on 32.67B EUR revenue (34.60% margin) in FY2025; with four customers driving 61.2% of revenue, fab installation delays compress margins below 28.5%.4,6
Geopolitical risk premium expansion lifting cost of capital
WACC is currently computed at 11.41% with moderate Ke at 11.43%; escalating sovereign semiconductor conflict widening the equity risk premium lifts WACC above 13.4%.2
Sustained margin degradation demonstrates that fixed cleanroom depreciation and ongoing R&D expenditures are outstripping realized lithography system deliveries, proving that pricing power cannot offset customer tool deferrals and operational deleverage.
وضعیت فعلی:34.60% in FY2025
هشدار در صورتFalls below 28.50% over trailing 12 months
A sudden drop in core foundry revenue share driven by delayed tool deliveries signifies that leading logic and memory manufacturers are extending existing equipment lifecycles and slowing transition rates to next-generation wafer fabrication nodes.
وضعیت فعلی:61.2% in FY2025
هشدار در صورتFalls below 45.0% driven by order cancellations within 12 months
Persistent capital intensity overruns indicate protracted industrialization bottlenecks and higher facility tooling costs for High-NA systems, delaying the modeled transition to normalized free cash flow conversion and depressing economic returns on incremental invested capital.
وضعیت فعلی:4.63% in FY2025
هشدار در صورتExceeds 7.50% across trailing 12 months
Sub-scale High-NA adoption confirms that major chipmakers are choosing multi-patterning extensions with existing 0.33 NA tools instead of commercializing 0.55 NA systems, stalling average selling price growth and prolonging the development payback cycle.
وضعیت فعلی:1.16B EUR in FY2025
هشدار در صورتFails to exceed 2.0B EUR annually by FY2027
03
Efficient Scale — Extreme R&D intensity and supply-chain complexity create a natural monopoly where commercial High-NA EXE systems delivered 1.16B EUR in FY2025 without commercial competition.
Wide
medium
18-36 months
EXE High-NA EUV tools achieved commercial validation with 1.16B EUR in FY2025 revenue, lowering cost-of-ownership versus multi-patterning.6
AI infrastructure expansion and global semiconductor fabrication incentives accelerate extreme ultraviolet tool adoption. High-NA lithography ramps smoothly into volume production across leading foundries, expanding operating margins as manufacturing scale efficiencies materialize. Disconfirmation would occur if tier-one customers delay next-generation node deployment by FY2027.
چرا مهم است
Tighter multilateral export licensing could restrict tool deliveries and cause immediate top-line contraction.
