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Direct answer
DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $123, high $204, with mid-point at $163.
Stock analysis

DHR Danaher Corporation fair value $163–$204

DHR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-10به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Health Care
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قیمت
$171.16
▼ -8.06 (-4.71%)
ارزش منصفانه
$163
$163–$204
رتبه‌بندی
نگه‌داری
confidence 87/100
پتانسیل رشد
-4.7%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$138.63
buy below · 15%
ارزش بازار
$121.1B
P/E fwd 18.8
منبع انگلیسیFA
منبع انگلیسی تا زمان ترجمه نمایش داده می‌شود
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Composite fair value $163 with high case $204.
  • Implied downside of 4.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$163
Margin of safety
-4.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$171.16Price
FV $163.1
High $203.68

DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Intrinsic valuation suggests downside risk.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

Under severe bioprocessing market contraction and failed M&A execution, our pure intrinsic models force valuation toward the $114-$122 range. Margins revert below 19% as DBS efficiencies fail to offset volume deleverage, and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. contracts toward 15x as the compounding narrative breaks.

چگونگی شکست این تز

Prolonged Bioprocessing Slump

· High

Extended pharma funding constraints and destocking cap revenue growth in low single-digits.

FV impact
-25%

M&A Integration Failure

· Medium

A major acquisition fails to realize DBS synergies, destroying ROIC and stalling margin expansion.

FV impact
-15%

China Market Deterioration

· Medium

Deepening macro weakness and localized competition in China structurally erode regional market share and profitability.

FV impact
-10%
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Consumables growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin contracting below 19%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexplained delays in M&A integration milestonesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising days sales outstanding in emerging marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
CapEx to depreciation ratio falling below 0.75MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیفT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
درآمد$24.80B$26.64B$23.89B$23.88B$24.57B-0.2%
سود ناخالص$15.24B$16.19B$14.03B$14.21B$14.52B-1.2%
سود عملیاتی$6.39B$7.54B$5.20B$4.86B$4.69B-7.4%
سود خالص$6.43B$7.21B$4.76B$3.90B$3.61B-13.4%
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$9.66$6.38$5.29$5.05-15.0%
EBITDA$8.80B$9.48B$7.50B$7.28B$6.95B-5.8%
تحقیق و توسعه$1.50B$1.53B$1.50B$1.58B$1.60B+1.6%
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش$6.81B$7.12B$7.33B$7.76B$8.24B+4.9%

امتیازات کیفیت

امتیاز Piotroski F
5 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
3.69
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.57
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
1.78×
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Pass
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
4.9%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
بخش ۳

Numbers analysis

تخصیص سرمایه

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
FAQ

DHR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DHR trades close to fair value. The current price is $171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $163 (range $123–$204), which implies roughly 4.7% downside to the midpoint.
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