تحلیل اختیاری محصول
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Accelerating mid-market cloud ERP expansion through QuickBooks Online Advanced and the new Intuit Enterprise Suite, tapping into larger businesses to expand ARPU and drive Global Business Solutions compound growth well above 13%.
Consumer segment revenue growth decelerates below 1.0% YoY in FY2027.
Intuit presents a high-conviction Strong Buy opportunity with 42.9% upside to an intrinsic Fair value of $464.62, supported by a wide economic moat, resilient Global Business Solutions growth, and premier free cash flow generation that significantly outweighs near-term DIY tax headwinds.
Intuit has de-rated to a compelling valuation of 12.66x forward P/E, creating an attractive entry point at $325.15 against an intrinsic Fair value of $464.62. The market has penalized the stock following management's acknowledgment of DIY tax customer attrition to lower-cost providers and a reset of FY2027 TurboTax growth to 2% to 3%. However, this near-term sentiment overhang obscures the durable compounding power of the broader platform.
The engine of Intuit's economic moat resides in Global Business Solutions, which delivered $12,864M in FY2026 revenue (60% of total revenue) and is guided to expand 13% to 14% in FY2027. Rapid mid-market adoption of QuickBooks Online Advanced and the new Intuit Enterprise Suite expands average revenue per customer, easily offsetting low-single-digit declines in the legacy desktop base (~25% of GBS). Concurrently, TurboTax Live assisted tax is guided to grow mid-teens, capturing higher-complexity filers and stabilizing consumer cash flows.47
Intuit's asset-light software economics generate extraordinary cash conversion. In FY2026, the company converted $4,566M in GAAP net income into $8,838M in operating cash flow and $8,617M in free cash flow, on capital expenditures of only $175M. Our Fair value of $464.62 reflects Intuit's 80.17% gross margin and mid-market ERP penetration, which sell-side consensus discounts due to transient DIY tax sentiment.356
Intuit trades at 12.66x forward P/E, a steep discount to software compounder peers and historical medians, offering attractive upside to intrinsic Fair value.3
QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite are penetrating mid-market accounts, driving double-digit GBS compound growth and expanding ARPU.4
With an asset-light model generating $8,617M in free cash flow and gross margins above 80%, Intuit maintains exceptional capital return capability.35
Intuit is a high-conviction Strong Buy as the market's near-term focus on DIY tax churn creates an exceptional opportunity to acquire a wide-moat software compounder positioned for 42.9% upside to intrinsic Fair value.
Intuit Inc. is a leading provider of business and financial management solutions for small and mid-sized businesses, self-employed individuals, and consumers. The company operates through primary business segments including Global Business Solutions, which delivers QuickBooks accounting, payroll, and merchant payment workflows alongside Mailchimp marketing services; and the Consumer segment, which offers TurboTax tax preparation and Credit Karma personal finance offerings. Intuit serves millions of customers globally by embedding automated financial intelligence, tax calculation engines, and expert assisted services into everyday financial workflows.
Under a macro and competitive stress test where DIY consumer tax volume contracts, small business formation stalls, and desktop revenue attrition quickens, consolidated revenue growth slows to 6.5% while operating margins compress toward 24.5% under fixed stock-based compensation of $2,056M. Under this severe downside path, a 35% kill scenario fair value shock yields a bear target of $244.68, representing a 47.3% contraction from intrinsic Fair value ($464.62) and a 24.8% downside from the analysis price of $325.15, reflecting an exit multiple de-rating to 12.0x forward earnings.
In the Bear scenario, persistent competitive pricing pressure in consumer tax erodes DIY filing volumes while macroeconomic stress dampens small business formation and software expenditure. Legacy desktop revenue contraction creates an ongoing drag that cloud upgrades cannot fully offset, compressing operating margins under fixed stock compensation overhead and prompting valuation multiple contraction.
Management acknowledged losing quality DIY tax filers to low-cost alternatives, leading to FY2027 TurboTax growth guidance slowing to 2% to 3%. If low-cost competitors and public electronic filing initiatives accelerate volume churn, Consumer segment revenue ($8,584M in FY2026) growth stalling below 1.0% would permanently erode high-margin seasonal cash flow.47
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Consumer tax revenue growth stalling below 1.0% indicates that low-cost competitors and public electronic filing initiatives are accelerating DIY volume attrition beyond what TurboTax Live assisted tax adoption can offset.
وضعیت فعلی:4% to 6% guided for FY2027
هشدار در صورت< 1.0% YoY
Intuit has established a Wide economic moat with an evaluated 15-year durability horizon, underpinned by high switching costs and network effects across small business accounting ecosystems. Core QuickBooks software functions as the operational backbone for enterprise recordkeeping, integrating bank feeds, accounts payable, payroll disbursement, merchant payment processing, and regulatory filings. Displacing this system involves severe disruption, risk of historical data loss, and significant employee retraining, resulting in durable customer retention and pricing power.
The platform's moat is reinforced by powerful network effects with certified public accountants and independent bookkeepers. The accounting community is trained extensively on QuickBooks and ProTax software suites, creating an entrenched referral dynamic where practitioners mandate that small business clients adopt Intuit's platform to streamline collaboration, audits, and tax season preparation. This professional ecosystem establishes an effective distribution barrier against emergent accounting software competitors.
While low-end consumer DIY tax preparation exhibits vulnerability to discount filers, Intuit is successfully insulating its consumer franchise by migrating filers up-market into TurboTax Live assisted tax and Credit Karma financial services. The combination of proprietary regulatory rules engines, decades of longitudinal tax filing records, and integrated human expertise forms an expanding competitive barrier that protects consolidated gross margins above 80%.
Intuit generates exceptional economic profit, delivering returns on capital substantially above its moderate cost of equity of 9.665% and WACC of 9.2052%. Operating income reached $5,884M in FY2026 on revenue of $21,448M, supported by gross profit of $17,195M (80.17% gross margin) and free cash flow of $8,617M, resulting in an underlying return on equity of 23.60%.1
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($464.62). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
In the Bull scenario, assigned a probability of 20.0%, Intuit achieves a target of $572.75, representing an implied return of 76.1%. Rapid adoption of Intuit Enterprise Suite powers elevated top-line compounding, while artificial intelligence agents automate complex customer workflows, accelerating operating margin leverage toward Potential value of $572.75.
An earnings beat demonstrates that cloud migration and assisted tax ARPU expansion are easily outpacing DIY consumer attrition, reinforcing the compounder thesis.
In-line execution confirms the multi-year thesis is proceeding according to baseline expectations despite acknowledged DIY tax friction.
An earnings miss driven by accelerating volume loss in consumer tax would signal that price competition is impairing segment cash flow generation.
Intuit exhibits high underlying earnings quality driven by exceptional cash conversion and recurring subscription billing. Operating cash flow substantially outpaces GAAP net income, benefiting from prepaid seasonal consumer tax revenues and an asset-light cloud delivery structure. Free cash flow conversion remains robust, though the substantial gap between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings highlights the ongoing necessity of monitoring stock-based compensation discipline. Customer receivables and deferred revenue schedules remain consistent with healthy recurring software enterprise contracts.
Consolidated earnings estimates for FY2027 were revised downward following management guidance that reset DIY consumer tax expectations and front-half marketing investments, while medium-term revenue forecasts for Global Business Solutions remain solid.
Measures cloud accounting and mid-market ERP migration momentum away from declining desktop software, determining whether core recurring revenue can sustain double-digit compound expansion.
Intuit demonstrates premier cash flow conversion characteristics. FY2026 GAAP net income of $4,566M converted into $8,838M in operating cash flow, representing a cash conversion ratio of nearly 194%, driven by working capital benefits from seasonal consumer tax prepayments and $2,056M in non-cash stock compensation add-backs. Free cash flow of $8,617M provides substantial flexibility to fund mid-market go-to-market investments and AI platform enhancements without balance sheet strain.56
Intuit pursues a disciplined, shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy focused on high-return organic R&D and significant cash returns through share repurchases and dividends. In FY2026, the company generated $8,838M in while requiring only $175M in . reached $8,617M, supporting repurchases that mitigate from $2,056M in . Balance sheet remains conservative with total debt of $8,421M against an equity market capitalization of $86,892M.
The wide spread between returns on capital and WACC confirms Intuit's structural economic moat. Operating margin expanded from 20.20% in FY2022 to 27.43% in FY2026 on $21,448M revenue, driven by cloud subscription growth and operating leverage. As high-margin cloud ERP adoption deepens, return metrics are projected to remain structurally elevated above capital costs.
Intuit generates economic returns substantially exceeding its cost of capital. Benchmark return on invested capital stands at 15.04%, while return on equity is 23.60%, compared to a moderate cost of equity of 9.665% and WACC of 9.2052%.
| درآمد | $۲۱٬۴۴۸٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| بهای تمام‌شده درآمد | $۴٬۲۵۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود ناخالص | $۱۷٬۱۹۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| هزینه‌های عملیاتی | $۱۱٬۳۱۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود عملیاتی | $۵٬۸۸۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| اقلام غیرعملیاتی و مالیات | −$۱٬۳۱۸٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود خالص | $۴٬۵۶۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| کل دارایی‌ها | $۳۶٬۷۸۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| وجه نقد | $۴٬۷۰۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| دارایی‌های جاری | $۱۵٬۳۱۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| کل بدهی‌ها | $۱۷٬۷۹۴٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| بدهی‌های جاری | $۱۰٬۱۶۳٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| حقوق صاحبان سهام | $۱۸٬۹۹۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود خالص | $۴٬۵۶۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
|---|---|
| ورودی نقد عملیاتی | $۸٬۸۳۸٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| استهلاک و کاهش ارزش | $۸۴۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام | $۲٬۰۵۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سایر تعدیلات عملیاتی | $۱٬۳۷۰٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقدی عملیاتی | $۸٬۸۳۸٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد در دسترس | $۱۸٬۳۱۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد ابتدای دوره | $۹٬۴۸۱٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| خروجی نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | $۱٬۴۱۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| مخارج سرمایه‌ای | $۱۷۵٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سایر فعالیت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری | $۱٬۲۳۷٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| خروجی نقد تأمین مالی | $۷٬۶۸۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| خالص انتشار بدهی | $۱٬۶۹۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| بازخرید سهام | $۵٬۴۱۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سود سهام پرداخت‌شده | $۱٬۳۴۷٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| سایر فعالیت‌های تأمین مالی | $۲٬۶۲۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| اثر نرخ ارز | $۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| نقد پایان دوره | $۹٬۲۱۶٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | −$۱٬۴۱۲٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
| جریان نقد تأمین مالی | −$۷٬۶۸۹٬۰۰۰٬۰۰۰ |
منبع: SEC EDGAR · تاریخ ثبت 2026-09-09 · SEC EDGAR
| درآمد بر اساس بخش عملیاتی | درآمد | سهم | سال‌به‌سال |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | $ ۱۲٫۹ میلیارد | ۶۰٪ | ۱۶٫۱٪ |
| Consumer | $ ۸٫۶ میلیارد | ۴۰٪ | ۱۰٫۷٪ |
داده‌های مالی مقطعی استفاده‌شده در تحلیل 2026-10-18.
| دوره | درآمد | EBITDA | سود خالص | جریان نقدی عملیاتی | جریان نقدی آزاد | مخارج سرمایه‌ای | استهلاک و کاهش ارزش | جبران خدمات مبتنی بر سهام | بازخرید سهام | سود سهام پرداخت‌شده | خالص انتشار بدهی | جریان نقد سرمایه‌گذاری | جریان نقد تأمین مالی | نقد ابتدای دوره | نقد پایان دوره | وجه نقد و سرمایه‌گذاری‌ها | کل بدهی | حاشیه عملیاتی | ROIC | WACC | شکاف ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-31 | $ ۵٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۹۸۵ میلیون | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۱۰۲ میلیون | $ ۲۳۶ میلیون | $ ۳۲۶ میلیون | $ ۸۳۹ میلیون | $ ۳۵۳ میلیون | — | −$ ۱۷ میلیون | −$ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | — | $ ۷۰۱ میلیون | $ ۷۷۷ میلیون | $ ۴۳۸ میلیون | ۲۷٫۳٪ | — | ۷٫۳٪ | — |
| 2018-07-31 | $ ۶ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۳۸ میلیون | $ ۲۵۳ میلیون | $ ۳۸۲ میلیون | $ ۲۷۲ میلیون | $ ۴۰۷ میلیون | — | −$ ۵۳۲ میلیون | −$ ۶۳۹ میلیون | $ ۷۰۱ میلیون | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۳۸۸ میلیون | ۲۵٫۹٪ | — | ۸٫۱٪ | — |
| 2019-07-31 | $ ۶٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۷۶ میلیون | $ ۲۲۵ میلیون | $ ۴۰۱ میلیون | $ ۵۵۶ میلیون | $ ۵۰۱ میلیون | — | −$ ۶۳۵ میلیون | −$ ۹۶۵ میلیون | $ ۱٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۳۸۶ میلیون | ۲۷٫۳٪ | — | ۷٫۱٪ | — |
| 2020-07-31 | $ ۷٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۵۹ میلیون | $ ۲۱۸ میلیون | $ ۴۳۵ میلیون | $ ۳۲۳ میلیون | $ ۵۶۱ میلیون | — | −$ ۹۷ میلیون | $ ۲ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۲ میلیارد | ۲۸٫۳٪ | — | ۵٫۱٪ | — |
| 2021-07-31 | $ ۹٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۵۳ میلیون | $ ۳۶۳ میلیون | $ ۷۵۳ میلیون | $ ۱ میلیارد | $ ۶۴۶ میلیون | — | −$ ۴ میلیارد | −$ ۳٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۲ میلیارد | ۲۶٫۰٪ | — | ۵٫۷٪ | — |
| 2022-07-31 | $ ۱۲٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۱۵۷ میلیون | $ ۷۴۶ میلیون | $ ۱٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۷۷۴ میلیون | $ ۴٫۹ میلیارد | −$ ۵٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۳ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۹ میلیارد | ۲۰٫۲٪ | — | ۷٫۲٪ | — |
| 2023-07-31 | $ ۱۴٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۴ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۵ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۲۱۰ میلیون | $ ۸۰۶ میلیون | $ ۱٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۲ میلیارد | $ ۸۸۹ میلیون | −$ ۸۱۰ میلیون | −$ ۹۲۲ میلیون | −$ ۴٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۳ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۱ میلیارد | ۲۱٫۹٪ | — | ۸٫۷٪ | — |
| 2024-07-31 | $ ۱۶٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۳ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۱۹۱ میلیون | $ ۷۸۹ میلیون | $ ۱٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۲ میلیارد | $ ۱ میلیارد | −$ ۸۹ میلیون | −$ ۲۲۷ میلیون | −$ ۳۹۷ میلیون | $ ۲٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۶ میلیارد | ۲۲٫۳٪ | — | ۸٫۹٪ | — |
| 2025-07-31 | $ ۱۸٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۵٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۳٫۹ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۶٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۸۴ میلیون | $ ۸۰۹ میلیون | $ ۲ میلیارد | $ ۲٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۲ میلیارد | −$ ۷۱ میلیون | −$ ۲٫۳ میلیارد | −$ ۱٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۹٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۶ میلیارد | ۲۶٫۱٪ | — | ۹٫۳٪ | — |
| 2026-07-31 | $ ۲۱٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۴٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۸٫۸ میلیارد | $ ۸٫۶ میلیارد | $ ۱۷۵ میلیون | $ ۸۴۶ میلیون | $ ۲٫۱ میلیارد | $ ۵٫۴ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۳ میلیارد | $ ۱٫۷ میلیارد | −$ ۱٫۴ میلیارد | −$ ۷٫۷ میلیارد | $ ۹٫۵ میلیارد | $ ۹٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۲ میلیارد | $ ۷٫۷ میلیارد | ۲۷٫۴٪ | — | ۸٫۸٪ | — |
Intuit Inc. (INTU) trades at 12.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.9x compares with a peer median of 31.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Cadence Design Systems Inc., Adobe Inc., Uber Technologies Inc. and ServiceNow Inc., as of 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-18.
The broader software sector is in a capital cycle expansion phase, evidenced by an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.45 and industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 17.8%. By contrast, Intuit operates an asset-light cloud delivery model with FY2026 capex of just $175M on $21,448M revenue, allowing it to generate $8,617M in free cash flow without heavy data center commitments.56
Accelerating cloud ERP adoption and mid-market expansion drive GBS revenue growth above 14%, while TurboTax Live assisted tax scales rapidly into the $30B+ assisted tax market, lifting operating margins toward 30.5%.
Macroeconomic deceleration and sustained elevated interest rates suppress small business formations, raising subscription churn and pulling GBS revenue growth below 8%, while persistent price competition in DIY tax caps consumer segment growth below 1%.
Intuit is strategically positioned as the mission-critical operating system for small businesses and tax compliance. Because capacity and lead-time constraints are not standard for software platforms, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. With $12,864M in GBS revenue and $8,584M in Consumer revenue, Intuit captures durable market share across both business ledger management and seasonal consumer tax filings.7
Intuit represents a premier large-cap software compounder with a wide economic moat, high free cash flow conversion, and substantial 42.9% implied upside to Fair value of $464.62 from the analysis price of $325.15. The recommended allocation is supported by mission-critical small business software workflows and balance sheet safety, while acknowledging near-term consumer DIY tax volatility.
Portfolio risk is controlled by capping maximum position weight at 6%, monitoring seasonal working capital requirements during tax season, and evaluating quarterly stock-based compensation dilution against share repurchase execution.
Trading at 12.66x forward P/E with an asset-light business model generating $8,617M in free cash flow, Intuit provides a 30.02% discount to intrinsic Fair value of $464.62.35
Global Business Solutions is guided to grow 13% to 14% in FY2027, with Online Ecosystem excluding Mailchimp up 23% in FY2026, driven by mid-market ERP migration.4
Structural DIY tax share loss to lower-cost providers and desktop contraction (~25% of GBS) could cap top-line revenue compounding if macro stress worsens.4
Intuit is rated Strong Buy based on an intrinsic Fair value of $464.62, offering 42.9% upside from the analysis price of $325.15. The business is underpinned by a wide economic moat in small business accounting workflows and high free cash flow generation.
While market sentiment is depressed by slowing DIY consumer tax growth and an FY2027 guidance reset, the core Global Business Solutions franchise is expanding at 13% to 14%, driven by mid-market cloud ERP adoption and assisted tax services that support long-term compounding.
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Desktop software represents approximately 25% of GBS revenue and is contracting in low single digits, while Mailchimp growth is guided flat to down 1%. High annual stock-based compensation of $2,056M combined with aggressive customer acquisition marketing for freemium tiers would compress operating margins from 27.43% down below 24.5% under macro stress.46
The valuation synthesis assumes an exit multiple of 18.0x, whereas mature software peer ADBE trades at a forward P/E of only 8.91x. If market participants view artificial intelligence and commoditized cloud accounting as eroding Intuit's software switching moats, terminal valuation multiples will de-rate by at least 20% toward peer levels.2
Operating margin compressing below 24.5% reveals that desktop ecosystem contraction and freemium customer acquisition marketing cannot be offset by AI automation, eroding operating leverage against annual stock-based compensation of $2,056M.
وضعیت فعلی:27.43% reported in FY2026
هشدار در صورت< 24.5%
GBS top-line compound growth falling below 8.0% signals that small business formation macro stress and desktop ecosystem drag are overwhelming mid-market QuickBooks Online Advanced expansion.
وضعیت فعلی:13% to 14% guided for FY2027
هشدار در صورت< 8.0% YoY
Desktop revenue contraction accelerating beyond 5.0% without a corresponding acceleration in cloud migration erodes the legacy base (~25% of GBS), reducing gross segment cash flow.
وضعیت فعلی:Low-single-digit decline guided for FY2027
هشدار در صورت> 5.0% decline YoY
Diluted share count growing by more than 1.0% indicates that share repurchases funded by operating cash flow ($8,838M in FY2026) are failing to offset equity dilution from $2,056M in annual stock-based compensation.
وضعیت فعلی:277M diluted shares in FY2026
هشدار در صورت> 1.0% annual expansion
| medium |
| 2-3 years |
| Active migration of desktop clients to QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite, where Online Ecosystem revenue excluding Mailchimp grew 23% in FY2026.4 |
| Potential Commoditization of Accounting Workflows by Generative AI | low | 3-5 years | Intuit is embedding proprietary financial intelligence and certified human-in-the-loop experts directly into its agentic platform, preserving workflow control and regulatory compliance guarantees.4 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $۹۳٫۷۹ comes from forecast-period earnings and $۳۶۸ from the long-term value, totaling $۴۶۲.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the Base scenario, assigned a probability of 55.0%, Intuit reaches a target of $464.62, delivering an implied return of 42.9%. Global Business Solutions drives consolidated expansion as QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite capture mid-market accounts. Steady ARPU gains in assisted tax offset modest DIY filer attrition, supporting consistent operating margin expansion and high cash generation.
Verifies whether high-ARPU virtual assisted tax filers are expanding rapidly enough to offset unit volume attrition among price-sensitive DIY filers.
Demonstrates operating leverage from cloud platform automation and AI efficiency against customer acquisition marketing costs.
Determines whether dilution is moderating toward long-term corporate targets, directly impacting per-share free cash flow compound growth.
Tracks the headwind from legacy desktop customer attrition, ensuring migration into cloud tiers outpaces legacy runoff.
| $27.75B |
| $29.97B |
| $32.21B |
| Operating income | $6.55B | $7.37B | $8.19B | $8.99B | $9.83B |
| NOPAT | $5.19B | $5.83B | $6.48B | $7.12B | $7.78B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $4.15B | $4.66B | $5.18B | $5.69B | $6.22B |
| Revenue growth | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Operating margin | 28.0% | 28.8% | 29.5% | 30.0% | 30.5% |
| Tax rate | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| Reinvestment rate | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Operating cash flow reached $8,838M and free cash flow reached $8,617M in FY2026 on capital expenditures of only $175M.
Asset-light software economics allow over 97% of operating cash flow to convert directly to free cash flow for capital return and strategic investments.
Reported operating margins rebounded from 20.20% in FY2022 to 26.14% in FY2025 and 27.43% in FY2026, generating $5,884M in operating income.
Operating leverage from the scale of the Global Business Solutions platform ($12,864M revenue) supports margin expansion toward 30.5% by FY2031.
Stock-based compensation stood at $2,056M in FY2026, or 45% of GAAP net income of $4,566M.
Management's commitment to reduce SBC to 9% of revenue by FY2028 and 8% by FY2030 will be critical to narrowing the gap between GAAP EPS and cash earnings.
| حاشیه سود |
|---|
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | $86.9B | 12.7x | 4.1x | 12.9x | 23.6% | — |
| CDNS | Cadence Design Systems Inc. | $88.1B | 33.4x | 15.1x | 41.3x | 23.2% | 28.6% |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | $95.4B | 8.9x | 3.7x | 9.7x | 61.9% | 34.8% |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc. | $143.7B | 15.9x | 2.6x | 20.6x | 37.2% | 13.3% |
| NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | $146.8B | 28.4x | 10.0x | 52.0x | 14.2% | 4.1% |
| negative |
| Emergence of low-cost standalone invoicing and tax tools increases churn pressure among price-sensitive micro-businesses and basic DIY tax filers. |
| Extended weakness below $325.15 | Complete full allocation of remaining targeted position | Approaching 52-week lows ($252.84), providing an extreme valuation discount where implied return exceeds 65% to Fair value. |
| Segment revenue growth sustaining within guided expansion range |
| Examine DIY customer churn and TurboTax Live conversion rates; if revenue growth turns negative, downgrade conviction and reassess long-term cash flow projections. |
| GAAP Operating Margin | GAAP operating margin remaining stable without consecutive quarterly declines | Investigate whether customer acquisition costs or stock-based compensation overhead are permanently eroding operating leverage; reassess fair value. |
