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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
LIN — frequently asked questions
Is Linde plc overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-09, LIN looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۴۶۸ versus our fair value of USD ۲۶۷; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۳۳۶. That implies roughly 43.1% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-09, gives LIN a fair value of USD ۲۶۷ and a potential value of USD ۳۳۶. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Linde plc's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy LIN now?
Our latest published rating for LIN, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell. Linde plc looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۴۶۸ versus fair value of USD ۲۶۷; potential value is USD ۳۳۶. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for LIN?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-09 documents Linde plc's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is LIN's rating?
Our latest published rating for LIN, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of USD ۲۶۷, the potential value of USD ۳۳۶, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۴۶۸).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه بهروز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیهایSell
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$468.38
Fair value
$266.68
Potential value
$335.79
As of
2026-09-08
چرا این سناریو میتواند موفق باشد
The upside case requires Americas and APAC growth to exceed the group path, more cash to remain after investment, and fewer shares to divide earnings.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر میدهد
The risk is triggered if full-year free cash flow falls below $4.0 billion.
Sell. The report was prepared at $468.38 on September 8, 2026, above Fair value of $266.68 and Potential value of $335.79.3
Capital spending is the key risk because it can leave too little cash for owners. The warning sign is annual free cash flow below $4.0 billion.4
The case can improve if Americas and APAC growth exceeds the group path, more cash remains after investment, and fewer shares divide earnings. These are required conditions, not established trends.
A favorable demand cycle would support regional volumes and utilization. Linde benefits most if Americas and APAC grow faster than the group while margins remain near FY2025 levels.5
A favorable demand cycle could lift regional volumes and plant use. The benefit would be stronger if growth improves across Americas and APAC while operating profit remains resilient.5
Linde provides health care and life insurance benefits to certain eligible retired employees. These benefits are provided through various insurance companies and healthcare providers. The company does not currently fund its postretirement benefits obligations.
Linde’s operations consist of two major product lines: industrial gases and engineering. Other consists of corporate costs and a few smaller businesses which individually do not meet the quantitative thresholds for separate presentation.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
The most damaging combination is slower regional demand, weaker margins, and recurring investment that leaves less cash for owners. That path can weaken earnings and value even when reported profit remains sound.
Regional sales weaken together, margins fall, and recurring investment absorbs more operating cash.
Investors pay less for each dollar of future earnings.3
This path is confirmed if the FY2027 growth floor fails, margins remain below their two-year boundary, or annual free cash flow breaches its stated floor.
A breach would weaken the dated demand anchor, reduce sales growth, and materially lower earnings and cash-flow expectations after FY2027.
وضعیت فعلی:FY2027 analyst revenue mean: $38.05 billion, dated and retrieved September 9, 2026.
هشدار در صورتBelow 3% year over year in FY2027.
02
§3 خندق رقابتیEN
None
Linde’s reported profitability and strong conversion of profit into operating cash are business outcomes. They do not establish switching costs, installed-base lock-in, software integration, network effects, or a proven scale advantage.
سود اقتصادی
FY2025 operating income was $8.92 billion, but profitability alone does not identify the structural cause needed to call the advantage durable.4
1/ 10
None
تهدیدات شناختهشده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
Investors may pay less for each dollar of future earnings if growth slows. The comparable-company range is wide, while Linde trades at 24.51 times forward earnings.
high
Through the long-term valuation horizon
Require sustained earnings growth before assuming that the present valuation premium will persist.
Direct price competition could pressure margins, but the supplied comparable set does not prove overlapping contracts or share loss.
medium
Over consecutive contract cycles
Treat peers as valuation checks unless contract overlap and sustained price discounts are verified.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
§5 حساسیت
نرخ تنزیل
رشد نهایی
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
6.1%
$295.14
$303.33
$313.75
$327.43
$346.22
7.1%
$273.15
$278.33
$284.59
$292.36
$302.22
8.1%
$256.16
$259.66
$266.68
$268.68
$274.62
9.1%
$242.29
$244.79
$247.66
$250.98
$254.89
10.1%
$230.57
$232.42
$234.51
$236.88
$239.60
ردیفها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستونها: رشد نهایی.
تغییر مدت (سال)
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($266.68). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $5.4B after modeled capex of $5.3B, with terminal value at 58.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Meeting the FY2027 revenue and diluted-earnings estimates would support the earnings path, but would not validate the years beyond FY2027.
کمتر از انتظار
Complete the reduction if weaker sales, margins, or cash after investment trigger the stated thesis limits.
محرک: FY2027 growth breaches its floor, margins remain below their floor, or annual free cash flow breaks its floor.
A miss would weaken both the near-term earnings anchor and the cash available to owners, reinforcing the Sell conclusion.
کیفیت سود
FY2025 reported profit was $6.90 billion and capital spending was $5.26 billion. Capital spending is a direct claim on cash, so it limits the amount left for owners.4
Reported profit produced strong operating cash, yet FY2025 capital spending reached $5.26 billion. Heavy recurring investment can therefore reduce owner cash even when reported earnings remain sound.4
تخصیص سرمایه
Share reduction supports per-share results, but the funding burden matters. FY2025 capital spending and the lower share count must be judged together rather than treating buybacks as costless growth.
Linde plc (LIN) trades at 24.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.4x compares with a peer median of 19.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc., Newmont Corporation and Air Products and Chemicals Inc., as of 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-09.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
The industry benchmark shows capital spending at 4.1% of revenue and 1.55 times depreciation as of September 1, 2026.
چرخه صعودی
A favorable demand cycle could lift regional sales. If Americas and APAC both grow while their profit contribution holds, group sales and operating profit would rise. Persistence remains conditional rather than established by the FY2025 observations.
چرخه نزولی
A synchronized regional slowdown would reduce sales growth and plant utilization. Americas has the greatest consolidated effect because it generated $15.21 billion of FY2025 revenue.
FY2025 revenue was attributed across the United States, China, Germany, and Other International. This spread provides several demand exposures, but the evidence does not establish how they would offset one another in a downturn.
موقعیتیابی
Linde enters the cycle with substantial operating profit across Americas, EMEA, and APAC. That regional spread helps against isolated weakness but does not protect against a broad demand slowdown.5
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
No long position. The report-date price exceeds Fair value and Potential value, while the rating is Sell. Existing exposure should be reduced rather than increased.3
ریسک
Use the operating triggers rather than price momentum. A strong quarter does not reverse the Sell view unless revenue, margins, and cash after investment improve together.
Reduce or exit. Recurring capital spending can leave less cash for owners even when reported earnings remain sound.4
Income-focused investor
Avoid
The Sell rating and valuation gap outweigh the case for retaining exposure solely for distributions.
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
فروش
Sell because the report-date price of $468.38 exceeds Fair value of $266.68 and Potential value of $335.79.3
The main downside is capital spending leaving less cash for owners. Upside requires stronger regional growth, more cash after investment, and fewer shares together.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایهگذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره میشود.
۰ نویسه
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-09 · Published 2026-09-09 · Provider-adjusted · cited for ۲ figuresCited in سناریوی نزولی, سناریوها, درخت تصمیم سود
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-09-09 · Published 2026-09-09 · cited for ۲ figuresCited in سناریوی نزولی, تاریخچه مالی
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Persistent margin weakness would show poorer price-cost conversion, reducing operating profit, earnings per share, and cash available after investment.
A breach would reduce consolidated sales and operating profit because Americas contributes materially to FY2025 group revenue and reported segment operating income.
وضعیت فعلی:Americas produced $15.21 billion of FY2025 revenue and $4.75 billion of operating income.
هشدار در صورتProspective monitoring assumption: below 2% growth for two consecutive fiscal years without EMEA or APAC offsets.
A breach would reduce revenue attributed to China, Germany, and Other International, weakening the international revenue base included in consolidated sales.
وضعیت فعلی:FY2025 attributed revenue was $2.60 billion in China, $2.43 billion in Germany, and $11.26 billion in Other International.
هشدار در صورتProspective monitoring assumption: combined attributed growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Cash remaining after investment improves, while fewer outstanding shares strengthen per-share results; both are conditional rather than established trends.
This case depends on the stated regional growth and cash-after-investment conditions. It is disconfirmed if recurring capex or valuation normalization overwhelms the earnings path.