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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MCD — frequently asked questions
Is McDonald's Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-08, MCD looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۲۵۶ versus our fair value of USD ۳۴۵; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۴۸۸. That implies roughly 34.9% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-08, gives MCD a fair value of USD ۳۴۵ and a potential value of USD ۴۸۸. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for McDonald's Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MCD now?
Our latest published rating for MCD, analyzed 2026-09-08, is Strong Buy. McDonald's Corporation looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۲۵۶ versus fair value of USD ۳۴۵; potential value is USD ۴۸۸. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MCD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-08 documents McDonald's Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MCD's rating?
Our latest published rating for MCD, analyzed 2026-09-08, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of USD ۳۴۵, the potential value of USD ۴۸۸, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۲۵۶).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه بهروز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیهایStrong Buy
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$255.69
Fair value
$345.00
Potential value
$487.79
As of
2026-09-04
چرا این سناریو میتواند موفق باشد
Both major geographic lines could outperform while FY2025 investment converts into incremental demand.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر میدهد
The risk test is capital spending at or above 12.52% of revenue in FY2030 without better revenue and operating cash.
Strong Buy. The $255.69 report-date price is below $345 Fair value and $487.79 Potential value. Unproductive capital spending is the main risk; broad segment growth is the clearest upside.3
Capital spending rose to $3.37 billion in FY2025. If it stays high without better sales and cash, investor returns and financial flexibility would weaken.3,5
FY2027 forecasts average $29.67 billion of revenue and $13.98 of diluted . FY2025 was $10.55 billion.
A favorable demand cycle would let both major geographic lines sustain mid-single-digit growth while capital spending produces incremental sales and cash.
Evidence-backed thesis
Strong Buy because the valuation gap and cash generation outweigh the conditional capital-spending risk.4
Cycle upside
A favorable demand cycle would let both major geographic lines sustain mid-single-digit growth while capital spending produces incremental sales and cash.
توصیه داخلی
Strong Buy because the valuation gap and cash generation outweigh the conditional capital-spending risk.4
نمای کلی شرکت
The Company has determined that it is the principal in these arrangements. The Company’s revenues consist of sales by Company-owned and operated restaurants and fees from franchised restaurants operated by conventional franchisees, developmental licensees and affiliates. Fees vary by type of site, amount of Company investment, if any, and local business conditions. These fees, along with occupancy and operating rights, are stipulated in franchise/license agreements that generally have 20-year terms. McDonald's creates opportunities that encourage Company employees, franchisees and their employees, suppliers, and customers to get involved in philanthropic and volunteering opportunities.
The Company is guided by five core values that define who it is and how it runs the business across the three-legged stool of McDonald’s franchisees, suppliers, and employees:
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
The central stress is weaker demand while capital spending stays high. Sales, profit and cash would fall as the debt balance limits financial flexibility.
A broad segment slowdown would reduce consolidated sales, weaken fixed-cost absorption, and force lower earnings and free-cash-flow assumptions across valuation methods.
وضعیت فعلی:FY2026 and FY2027 forecasts imply 4.92% and 5.2% growth.
هشدار در صورتBelow 3% for two consecutive issuer fiscal years.
02
§3 خندق رقابتیEN
None
McDonald's reports revenue across International Operated Markets, the Usmarket, and its smaller licensed-markets-and-corporate line. Those figures show geographic breadth, but they do not establish switching costs, protected assets, network effects, cost advantage, or efficient scale; each structural factor remains unknown from the cited segment data.
SBUX is the closest restaurant-demand comparison. TJX represents value spending, while BKNG and ABNB represent travel-related discretionary spending; their different economics make them indirect checks rather than interchangeable peers.
سود اقتصادی
FY2025 operating income was $12.39 billion, yet no structural moat source is credited from that result alone.5
1/ 10
None
تهدیدات شناختهشده برای خندق
تهدید
شدت
بازه زمانی
کاهش
Direct restaurant competition could weaken traffic or require more promotional value.
medium
Through FY2027 and beyond
Treat the threat as confirmed if operating margin falls below 43% while major-segment growth weakens. That combination would show traffic or pricing pressure reaching profit.5
ردیفها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستونها: رشد نهایی.
ارزش منصفانه
تغییر مدت (سال)
−۵
−۲
۰
+۲
+۵
ارزش منصفانه
$۳۴۵٫۰۰
$۳۴۵٫۰۰
$۳۴۵٫۰۰
$۳۴۶٫۳۹
$۳۴۸٫۴۱
مدت مزیت رقابتی در حالت پایهٔ مشخصشده: 1 سال. سایر فرضها ثابت میمانند.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($345.00). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $7.9B after modeled reinvestment of $2.5B, with terminal value at 73.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Consolidated FY2027 revenue reaches the published annual forecast, then the house revenue path slows gradually; the two major geographic lines remain the key operating test.1,6
Margins ease modestly while investment spending begins to produce incremental revenue.
This path supports steady earnings growth without further margin expansion. It fails if annual revenue growth stays below 3% for two consecutive fiscal years, or if capital spending does not lift revenue and operating cash.5
FY2027 revenue and earnings approach the upper ends of their forecast ranges.1
§7 درخت تصمیم سودEN
بیش از انتظار
Add within the planned allocation if both major geographic lines strengthen.
محرک: Revenue and earnings exceed the annual forecasts while margin remains near the reported level.
Broad growth with steady margins would show that investment spending is producing demand and operating leverage.
مطابق
Keep the planned allocation and require continued progress.
محرک: Revenue, earnings and margins remain close to the FY2027 forecast path.
Results near the forecast path would support the base case without proving the later growth runway.
کمتر از انتظار
Pause new buying and re-underwrite the growth duration.
محرک: Both major lines weaken, margin compresses, or capital spending fails to produce better cash.
Weak segment growth or lower margins would reduce earnings and cash while leaving the investment burden in place.
کیفیت سود
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, and free cash flow remained positive. Elevated capital spending means less cash may remain for investors, so weaker operating cash alongside persistent spending would be the warning.4,5
Free cash flow means cash left after capital spending. It remained $7.19 billion in FY2025 despite elevated investment, supporting distributions while leaving future spending productivity unresolved.4,5
تخصیص سرمایه
Capital allocation must balance investment, shareholder distributions and $54.60 billion of debt. Future repurchases should not be treated as a permanent earnings-growth source.
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trades at 18.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.7x compares with a peer median of 20.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The TJX Companies Inc., Booking Holdings Inc., Starbucks Corporation and Airbnb Inc., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
Capital spending rose from $2.36 billion in FY2023 to $3.37 billion in FY2025. The industry references are 3.7% of revenue and 1.64 times depreciation.5
چرخه صعودی
A favorable demand cycle would let both major geographic lines sustain mid-single-digit growth while capital spending produces incremental sales and cash.
چرخه نزولی
A weaker demand cycle would pressure traffic and pricing. High spending would then absorb more cash while debt reduces flexibility.
موقعیتیابی
The cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Segment demand and capital productivity are the decisive tests.
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
Start smaller than the investor's usual full position. Add only while annual revenue growth stays at least 3%, margin remains above 43%, and capital spending produces better revenue and cash. The Strong Buy view has material upside, but long-run growth and capital-spending productivity still require verification.5
ریسک
Keep position size tied to segment growth, margin and spending productivity. Do not rely on debt-funded repurchases as a lasting earnings driver.
بخشهای ورود
سطح
اقدام
چرا
Annual revenue growth remains at least 3%.
Initiate or add within the planned allocation.
Growth above this threshold keeps both major segments and the later revenue path credible.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Traffic weakness and heavier value promotions would reduce profit per sale and invalidate the high-margin growth path.5
FV impact
-2.4%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Capital spending intensity
Persistent spending would leave less operating cash for investors, limit repurchases, and weaken the assumption that investment converts into durable growth.
وضعیت فعلی:FY2025 capital spending was $3.37 billion in the annual filing retrieved 2026-09-08.
هشدار در صورتAt or above 12.52% of revenue in FY2030 without better revenue and cash flow.
A sustained financing-cost increase would lower the present value of long-run cash flows and intensify pressure from debt and continuing capital needs.
وضعیت فعلی:6.8243% as of and retrieved 2026-09-08T21:14:02+00:00.
Limitation: Terminal value is 73.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 73.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Joint segment strength would raise sales, profit and cash without requiring investors to pay a higher multiple. Margin compression would disconfirm this path.