با اجازه شما، از تحلیلهای محدود و حریمخصوصیمحور استفاده میکنیم تا مسیرهای پژوهشی مؤثر را بشناسیم. از ردیاب تبلیغاتی یا بازپخش نشست استفاده نمیکنیم. این انتخاب را میتوانید در تنظیمات تغییر دهید. بخوانید سیاست حفظ حریم خصوصی.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MDLZ — frequently asked questions
Is Mondelez International, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۶۱٫۳ versus our fair value of USD ۷۰٫۱; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۸۶٫۰. That implies roughly 14.4% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives MDLZ a fair value of USD ۷۰٫۱ and a potential value of USD ۸۶٫۰. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Mondelez International, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MDLZ now?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. Mondelez International, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۶۱٫۳ versus fair value of USD ۷۰٫۱; potential value is USD ۸۶٫۰. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MDLZ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Mondelez International, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MDLZ's rating?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD ۷۰٫۱, the potential value of USD ۸۶٫۰, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۶۱٫۳).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیه‌ایBuy
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$61.29
Fair value
$70.11
Potential value
$86.01
As of
تاریخ قیمت ثبت نشده است
چرا این سناریو می‌تواند موفق باشد
Bull: Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر می‌دهد
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion: Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
Unmatched global distribution scale
Unmatched global distribution scale
Cycle upside
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multiple down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth, dropping the multiple to 15x.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion
Medium
Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months
Private Label Defection
Medium
سیگنالهای هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
وضعیت فعلی:1.842 as of 2026-05-20
هشدار در صورتDrops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters
02
§3 خندق رقابتیEN
Wide
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
Unmatched global distribution scale
Highly inelastic consumer demand
سود اقتصادی
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
§5 حساسیت
نرخ تنزیل
رشد نهایی
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.2%
$98.27
$117.55
$117.55
$117.55
$117.55
5.2%
$67.17
$79.80
$98.27
$117.55
$117.55
6.2%
$51.02
$57.99
$67.17
$79.80
$98.27
7.2%
$41.14
$45.55
$51.02
$57.99
$67.17
8.2%
$36.94
$37.50
$41.14
$45.55
$51.02
ردیف‌ها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستون‌ها: رشد نهایی.
تغییر مدت (سال)
Unavailable
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($67.17). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Warning level: Drops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters. Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
MDLZ trades at 18.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.5x; EV/EBITDA of 18.9x against a peer median of 22.9x; 6 peers.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
چرخه صعودی
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
Appropriate as a core anchor holding within defensive or dividend-focused equity portfolios.
ریسک
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
بخش‌های ورود
سطح
اقدام
چرا
Current / pullbacks
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
بخش‌های خروج
سطح
اقدام
Thesis break
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
§12 دیدگاههای سرمایهگذارانEN
Bull view
Buy
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Base view
Buy
At $61.29, market expectations imply a 2.14% terminal growth rate—materially lower than our conservative 3.12% forward estimates. This spread provides a distinct, quantifiable margin of safety. Tightly triangulated FCFF ($67) and moat-fade models ($66) confirm the baseline intrinsic value solidly exceeds current trading levels.
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
خرید
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره می‌شود.
Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
وضعیت فعلی:5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
هشدار در صورتDeclines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period
Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
وضعیت فعلی:28.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
هشدار در صورتCompresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year
Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
وضعیت فعلی:9.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
هشدار در صورتFalls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
وضعیت فعلی:97.5% as of 2026-05-20
هشدار در صورتBreaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
The enterprise achieves moderate but highly visible growth. A tightly constrained 18x exit multiple accounts for macro headwinds, while exceptional cash flow conversion fully sustains the heavy dividend payout structure.
فعلی5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
چرا مهم است
Warning level: Declines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period. Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
Warning level: Compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year. Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
Warning level: Falls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
Warning level: Breaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period. Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
