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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NDAQ — frequently asked questions
Is Nasdaq, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۹۲٫۰ versus our fair value of USD ۷۰٫۲; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۸۷٫۷. That implies roughly 23.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives NDAQ a fair value of USD ۷۰٫۲ and a potential value of USD ۸۷٫۷. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Nasdaq, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NDAQ now?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Nasdaq, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۹۲٫۰ versus fair value of USD ۷۰٫۲; potential value is USD ۸۷٫۷. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NDAQ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Nasdaq, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NDAQ's rating?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD ۷۰٫۲, the potential value of USD ۸۷٫۷, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۹۲٫۰).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیه‌ایSell
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$91.98
Fair value
$70.15
Potential value
$87.67
As of
تاریخ قیمت ثبت نشده است
چرا این سناریو می‌تواند موفق باشد
Bull: Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر می‌دهد
Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Network effects in core exchange
Network effects in core exchange listings
High switching costs in data
High switching costs in data and analytics software
Cycle upside
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Sell. The current valuation embeds aggressive implied growth expectations that ignore a near-term revenue contraction, leaving the risk/reward profile skewed to the downside despite robust fundamentals.
نمای کلی شرکت
Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms. It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies. In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services. The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.
Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
وضعیت فعلی:29.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
هشدار در صورت< 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
§5 حساسیت
نرخ تنزیل
رشد نهایی
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
7.1%
$87.64
$97.25
$109.23
$124.57
$128.07
8.1%
$73.18
$79.76
$87.64
$97.25
$109.23
9.1%
$62.81
$67.60
$73.18
$79.76
$87.64
10.1%
$55.02
$58.66
$62.81
$67.60
$73.18
11.1%
$48.95
$51.81
$55.02
$58.66
$62.81
ردیف‌ها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستون‌ها: رشد نهایی.
تغییر مدت (سال)
Unavailable
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($73.18). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Warning level: < 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
NDAQ trades at 20.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.4x; EV/EBITDA of 19.0x against a peer median of 21.5x; 6 peers.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
چرخه صعودی
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
چرخه نزولی
Prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, compressing high-margin transactional revenues.
موقعیتیابی
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
Given the -23.7% downside to the $70.15 mid-point fair value and explicit execution risks in the Year 1 revenue transition, the position warrants an underweight or avoid stance until the valuation normalizes.
ریسک
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
بخش‌های ورود
سطح
اقدام
چرا
Current / pullbacks
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
بخش‌های خروج
سطح
اقدام
Thesis break
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
§12 دیدگاههای سرمایهگذارانEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Nasdaq boasts a wide moat and highly predictable mature software/data segment revenue, the current $91.98 price is stretched versus base fundamentals. Reverse DCF reveals the market is pricing in flawless execution, ignoring the near-term restructuring drag.
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
فروش
Sell. The composite explicitly incorporates execution risk, blending strict intrinsic cash generation with normalized forward multiples, yielding a $70.15 mid-point.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره می‌شود.
Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Listing Share Erosion
Low
Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.
FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
وضعیت فعلی:11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
هشدار در صورت< 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
03
Core Listing Market Share
Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
وضعیت فعلی:Dominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
هشدار در صورتLoss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year
04
Market Data Pricing Freedom
Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
وضعیت فعلی:Unrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
هشدار در صورت>= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year
Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
وضعیت فعلی:1.261 as of 2026-05-20
هشدار در صورت< 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth, with margins reverting to 40%.
چرا مهم است
Warning level: < 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
03
معیار:
Core Listing Market Share
فعلیDominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
چرا مهم است
Warning level: Loss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year. Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
04
معیار:
Market Data Pricing Freedom
فعلیUnrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
چرا مهم است
Warning level: >= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year. Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Warning level: < 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis. Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
