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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NEM — frequently asked questions
Is Newmont Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-29, NEM looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD ۱۱۷ versus our fair value of USD ۱۲۹; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD ۱۸۵. That implies roughly 10.7% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-29, gives NEM a fair value of USD ۱۲۹ and a potential value of USD ۱۸۵. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Newmont Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NEM now?
Our latest published rating for NEM, analyzed 2026-09-29, is Hold. Newmont Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD ۱۱۷ versus fair value of USD ۱۲۹; potential value is USD ۱۸۵. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NEM?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-29 documents Newmont Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NEM's rating?
Our latest published rating for NEM, analyzed 2026-09-29, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD ۱۲۹, the potential value of USD ۱۸۵, and the price recorded at analysis (USD ۱۱۷).
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.
§1 خلاصه اجراییEN
پاسخ ۳۰ ثانیه‌ایHold
قیمت در برابر ارزش
Price
$116.95
Fair value
$129.42
Potential value
$184.87
As of
2026-09-29
چرا این سناریو می‌تواند موفق باشد
Sustained gold bullion pricing combined with execution on key mine developments—including higher-grade cave delivery at Cadia PC2-3 and brownfield expansions at Lihir and Cerro Negro —could expand consolidated revenue toward consensus estimates of $29,199.7 million by FY2027, keeping all-in sustaining costs near $1,621 per ounce and generating over $8.0 billion in annual free cash flow available for discretionary share repurchases.
چه چیزی دیدگاه ما را تغییر می‌دهد
A cyclical retreat in spot gold bullion realizations combined with cumulative mining cost inflation pushing reported byproduct all-in sustaining costs above the full-year guidance threshold of $1,680 per ounce.
We maintain a Hold rating on Newmont Corporation with a compositefair value midpoint of $129.42 per share against the market price of $116.95 as of September 29, 2026. The resulting 9.64% discount places the stock within our neutral Hold threshold (-10% to +10%), balancing tier-1 asset scale and robust cash flow conversion against heavy development capital commitments and cyclical margin normalization.3
Valuation synthesis anchors our Hold recommendation on Newmont Corporation. At the current share price of $116.95, Newmont trades at a 9.64% discount to our composite midpoint of $129.42, within the committee's Hold boundary. Our valuation is led by an enterprise model weighted at 40.0% with a $100.17 midpoint, discounted at a 7.82% , and supported by multi-stage discounted earnings ($184.03 midpoint, 25.0% weight) and forward earnings ($113.45 midpoint, 15.0% weight) anchored on FY2027 consensus of $10.24 and a 14.0x .
Operational scale across tier-1 jurisdictions provides strong commercial leverage. Gold dore revenue reached $14,330 million in FY2025, comprising 63.2% of consolidated revenues of $22,669 million, complemented by $8,339 million in concentrate and byproduct sales. In FY2025, Newmont converted $10,353 million in operating income into $10,334 million in operating cash flow and $7,299 million in free cash flow. Q2 2026 byproduct all-in sustaining costs tracked at $1,621 per ounce, comfortably inside full-year guidance of $1,680 per ounce, while balance sheet cash of $7,647 million against $5,598 million of total debt supports liquidity.2,3,4,5,6,7
Balanced against these advantages are cyclical reinvestment requirements and cost inflation risks. Sustaining capital expenditureguidance includes a $150 million quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 2026, contributing to full-year guided capex of $3.35 billion across sustaining ($1.95 billion) and development projects ($1.4 billion). Historical margin volatility—demonstrated by operating margins dropping to -15.09% in FY2023 —alongside recent downward consensus earnings revisions trimming FY2027 diluted EPS from $10.58 to $10.24 underscores that peak-cycle margin gains remain vulnerable to commodity softening and diesel input cost pressure.1,3,4
World-Class Gold Dore Asset Scale
Gold dore production generated $14,330 million (63.2% of total revenue) in FY2025, providing massive commercial scale that absorbs mine-level operational variability.6,7
Premier Cash Flow Conversion and Balance Sheet Liquidity
Delivered $10,334 million in operating cash flow and $7,299 million in free cash flow in FY2025, leaving Newmont in a net cash position with $7,647 million in cash against $5,598 million of total debt.2,5,6
Cost Control and Margin Advantage Across Tier 1 Assets
Q2 2026 byproduct all-in sustaining costs of $1,621 per ounce track below full-year guidance of $1,680 per ounce, preserving operating margins of 45.7% that outpace Basic Materials peers.3,4
توصیه داخلی
Hold. Newmont trades at a modest 9.64% discount to our compositefair value midpoint of $129.42 against the market price of $116.95. While FY2025 operating income of $10,353 million and cash reserves of $7,647 million provide exceptional financial strength, guided FY2026 capital expenditures of $3.35 billion and historical margin cyclicality warrant maintaining position size rather than expanding exposure.3,4,6
نمای کلی شرکت
Cadia operates two adjacent concentrators, Concentrator 1 and Concentrator 2, currently treating ore from Cadia East mine. Both concentrators have undergone throughput upgrades, including operational improvements, over the years. Water supply at Cadia is sourced from the Cadiangullong Dam, Upper Rodds Creek Dam, Flyers Creek Weir, Cadia Creek Weir, Orange Sewage Treatment Plant treated effluent, on-site groundwater bores, Belubula River, and site runoff. The Newmont cybersecurity program is designed to protect its technology platforms and address risks associated with the implementation of emerging technologies. While these efforts are designed to align with industry best practices, no system can eliminate all risks, especially given the pace of technological advancement and the evolving nature and increased frequency of cyber threats.
In addition, the company does not carry specific cybersecurity insurance to help mitigate such costs due to increased premiums and limited market availability. In October 2017, the government of Ghana approved Newmont’s request to extend the stability period of the Revised IAs at the Ahafo operations for five years to December 31, 2025. Its operations span multiple continents in a range of ecosystems that include tropical, desert and arctic climates.
§2 سناریوی نزولیEN
Under a severe commodity downcycle stress scenario, spot gold realizations drop toward marginal cost of production while input cost inflation persists across diesel, explosives, and underground labor. Operating margins compress toward 25%-30%, recalling the historical cyclical contraction seen in FY2023 when operating margins plummeted to -15.09%. Capital reinvestment requirements remain demanding, as maintaining and developing Tier 1 assets absorbs $3.35 billion ($1.95 billion sustaining and $1.40 billion development), causing annual free cash flow to contract below $3.0 billion compared to $7,299 million generated in FY2025. Under this stress, share repurchases cease and valuation multiples compress toward historical trough levels.
AISC guided at $1,680/oz combined with fuel and labor inflation creates severe operating margin deleverage, where historical margins compressed to -15.09% in FY2023. An operating margin drop below 32% impairs intrinsic value by 22.5%.3,4
FV impact
-4.7%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
پنج تحولی که می‌تواند تز سرمایه‌گذاری ما را تضعیف کند.
Newmont Corporation commands a narrow economic moat grounded in structural cost advantages and efficient scale across its premier portfolio of Tier 1 mining assets. In an extractive commodity industry characterized by homogenous products and price-taking dynamics, sustainable competitive advantage stems from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve and controlling long-life, high-grade reserve endowments. Newmont's core production of gold dore generated $14,330 million in FY2025, accounting for 63.2% of consolidated revenues of $22,669 million. This massive commercial volume creates economies of scale in procurement, shared technical infrastructure, and mining fleet utilization, enabling Newmont to generate FY2025 operating income of $10,353 million and an operating margin of 45.7%.
The company's cost advantage is reinforced by byproduct credits from copper and gold concentrate production, which contributed $8,339 million in FY2025 revenue. These byproduct credits helped contain Q2 2026 all-in sustaining costs to $1,621 per ounce, comfortably below the full-year guidance cap of $1,680 per ounce. Newmont's global off-take network further supports efficient scale, routing refined gold dore through liquid London clearing channels ($13,068 million in UK revenue) and concentrate through established smelters in South Korea ($3,196 million), Japan ($2,002 million), and China ($1,411 million). This diversified counterparty architecture ensures rapid liquidation and low settlement risk across economic cycles.
Despite these formidable advantages, Newmont's economic moat is rated Narrow rather than Wide due to the finite nature of extractive mineral reserves and direct exposure to cyclical commodity price swings. Gold mining assets face inevitable ore grade degradation, requiring continuous capital reinvestment ($3,035 million in FY2025 capex; $3.35 billion guided in FY2026) to discover and develop replacement ounces. Furthermore, Newmont exercises no control over world spot gold prices, making historical returns highly cyclical—as demonstrated by operating margins compressing to -15.09% during the FY2023 downturn. Consequently, excess economic profits above cost of capital cannot be projected with high certainty beyond a 10-year horizon.
سود اقتصادی
Newmont generates substantial economic profit above its cost of capital, evidenced by an ROIC of 16.94% which exceeds its WACC of 7.82% and cost of equity of 8.01%. This excess spread is driven by peak-cycle bullion pricing and disciplined cost execution, with FY2025 operating income reaching $10,353 million (45.7% margin), operating cash flow reaching $10,334 million, and free cash flow reaching $7,299 million. The company maintains significant balance sheet strength with $7,647 million in cash and equivalents against $5,598 million in total debt.2,3,5,6
6/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Cost Advantage — Newmont's Tier 1 mining assets achieved byproduct gold all-in sustaining costs of $1,621 per ounce in Q2 2026, tracking comfortably below full-year guidance of $1,680 per ounce. Gold dore production generated $14,330 million in FY2025 (63.2% of consolidated revenue), while copper/gold concentrate sales provided $8,339 million in byproduct credits, generating FY2025 operating income of $10,353 million.Moderate
02Efficient Scale — Replicating Newmont's global Tier 1 asset base (including Cadia, Tanami, and Lihir) requires prohibitive multi-billion-dollar capital investments, reflected in guided FY2026 sustaining of $1.95 billion and development capex of $1.40 billion. Established refining and smelting channels across the United Kingdom ($13,068M), South Korea ($3,196M), Japan ($2,002M), and China ($1,411M) establish high barriers to entry.
Maintaining low-cost Tier 1 assets with Q2 2026 byproduct AISC tracking at $1,621 per ounce, substantial liquidity of $7,647 million in cash, and byproduct revenues from copper/gold concentrate sales ($8,339 million).
ردیف‌ها: نرخ تنزیل (Ke برای سود؛ WACC برای جریان نقدی). ستون‌ها: رشد نهایی.
ارزش منصفانه
تغییر مدت (سال)
−۵
−۲
۰
+۲
+۵
ارزش منصفانه
$۱۲۹٫۴۲
$۱۲۹٫۴۲
$۱۲۹٫۴۲
$۱۲۹٫۴۲
$۱۲۹٫۴۲
مدت مزیت رقابتی در حالت پایهٔ مشخص‌شده: 5 سال. سایر فرض‌ها ثابت می‌مانند.
مرجع حساسیت
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($129.42). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $6.5B after modeled reinvestment of $881.7M, with terminal value at 75.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the base scenario (the modal expected outcome), Newmont successfully delivers on guided FY2026 production and cost plans, maintaining byproduct AISC within guided ceilings. Operating margins normalize gracefully from peak FY2025 levels through FY2026 and FY2030, delivering robust annual free cash flow in FY2026 and FY2027. Steady capital reinvestment preserves reserve quality across tier-one jurisdictions, supporting our compositefair value midpoint of $129.42.
Consolidated revenue expands to $29.20B by FY2027 driven by strong bullion prices and volume execution.1
§7 درخت تصمیم سودEN
بیش از انتظار
Upgrade the rating; Review whether unit cost containment at Cadia and Tanami demonstrates multi-year structural durability before adjusting portfolio weighting.
محرک: Quarterly diluted EPS and consolidated revenue exceeding consensus upper bounds, accompanied by byproduct AISC tracking below guided cost ceilings.
Sustained gold realization strength combined with underground cost containment would drive operating margin expansion, increasing full-year free cash flow and warranting an upward revision to intrinsic value.
مطابق
Maintain Hold; Keep existing portfolio exposure unchanged and verify that sustaining capital expenditures remain within guided parameters.
محرک: Quarterly diluted EPS and consolidated revenue tracking in line with consensus expectations, with full-year byproduct AISC tracking within guided cost ranges.
Financial results meeting consensus expectations confirm that Newmont is performing in line with its guided operational plan and our normalized margin trajectory in FY2026.
کمتر از انتظار
Downgrade the rating; Re-examine thesis assumptions regarding diesel and labor inflation stickiness, assess mine development timelines, and evaluate reducing exposure.
Cost inflation outpacing bullion prices or unexpected mine production shortfalls would compress operating margins toward cyclical troughs, impairing normalized cash generation.
کیفیت سود
Newmont's earnings quality is exceptionally high, supported by disciplined cash conversion and robust accounting disclosures. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $10,334 million, converting 145.9% of reported net income ($7,085 million). Free cash flow reached $7,299 million, representing 103.0% of net income and demonstrating that reported profits reflect physical cash generation rather than working capital accruals. Stock-based compensation is modest at 0.6% of revenue, matching the Basic Materials industry benchmark. Balance sheet asset quality is strong, featuring $7,647 million in cash and cash equivalents against $5,598 million in total debt.
معیارهای مهم پیش از انتشار
01
معیار:
Gold Byproduct All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC)
فعلیTracking at $1,621 per ounce in Q2 2026, remaining well below the full-year guidance ceiling of $1,680 per ounce.
چرا مهم است
AISC measures operational and sustaining capital efficiency per ounce of gold, directly determining cash operating margins and flow-through to EBIT.
In FY2025, Newmont delivered exceptional cash flow generation, converting $7,085 million in net income into $10,334 million of operating cash flow (a 145.9% conversion rate). Capital expenditures of $3,035 million resulted in free cash flow of $7,299 million, representing a free cash flow margin of 32.2% on $22,669 million in revenue. In Q2 2026, realized gold prices rose by ~33% while costs applicable to sales rose only 4%, sustaining strong cash margins. For FY2026, guided capex of $3.35 billion ($1.95 billion sustaining and $1.40 billion development) will moderately lift reinvestment, but annual enterprise free cash flow is projected to remain solid at ~$6.47 billion in FY2026 and ~$6.73 billion in FY2027.
The substantial ROIC spread reflects cyclical peak-phase gold price realizations and strong cost containment, with Q2 2026 AISC of $1,621/oz tracking below full-year guidance of $1,680/oz. While returns are projected to normalize from FY2025 operating margins of 45.7% toward a mid-cycle terminal margin of 38.0%, economic profit is expected to remain positive throughout the forecast period due to disciplined capital allocation and low net reinvestment intensity (12.0% of NOPAT).
Newmont generates an ROIC of 16.94%, establishing a 9.12 percentage point spread above its WACC of 7.82% and an 8.93 percentage point spread above its cost of equity of 8.01%.
آخرین درآمد$ ۲۲٫۷ میلیاردنرخ رشد مرکب سالانه درآمد +۱۴٫۵٪
حاشیه سود عملیاتی۴۵٫۷٪10 دوره مالی
آخرین جریان نقد آزاد$ ۷٫۳ میلیاردFY2025
نقد خالص$ ۳٫۱ میلیاردFY2025
تفکیک صورت سود و زیانچگونگی تبدیل مقیاس کسب‌وکار به سود گزارش‌شده.
Newmont Corporation (NEM) trades at 11.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.0x compares with a peer median of 16.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Nucor Corporation, The Sherwin-Williams Company and Ecolab Inc., as of 2026-09-29.
§10 صنعت و چرخهEN
فاز چرخه
Expansion
The mining industry capital cycle is currently in an active reinvestment phase, evidenced by an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.53 and an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 6.1%. Newmont mirrors this reinvestment phase with FY2026 guided capex of ~$3.35 billion ($1.95 billion sustaining and $1.40 billion development) compared to FY2025 capex of $3,035 million and D&A of $2,521 million, yielding a company capex-to-depreciation ratio above 1.20x.4,6
چرخه صعودی
In an extended bull cycle, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and sovereign reserve accumulation propel gold bullion realizations higher, allowing Newmont's gold dore revenues to expand toward consensus estimates of $29,199.7 million by FY2027. Operating margins remain above 45.0%, driving diluted EPS toward the high-end analyst estimate of $12.09 and generating over $8.0 billion in free cash flow, enabling significant share repurchases.
چرخه نزولی
In a cyclical bear downturn, macroeconomic tightening and real rate increases depress gold spot prices toward marginal extraction costs, while input cost stickiness keeps AISC near or above $1,680 per ounce. Operating margins compress toward 25%-30%—echoing prior cycle troughs such as FY2023 (-15.09%) —and free cash flow falls below $3.0 billion, forcing capital expenditure deferrals and halting share buybacks.
روندهای بلندمدت
روند
تأثیر
یادداشت
Central Bank Gold Reserve Accumulation and Geopolitical Hedging
positive
Central banks and sovereign reserve institutions have steadily increased physical gold allocations to hedge sovereign debt expansion and currency debasement risks, providing structural demand for refined gold dore.
Declining Global Reserve Grades and Tier 1 Scarcity
positive
Worldwide discovery rates for large, high-grade gold deposits have declined, increasing replacement barriers and enhancing the economic value of established Tier 1 assets like Cadia, Tanami, and Lihir, supporting returns above WACC of 7.82%.
موقعیت‌یابی
Newmont occupies a premier competitive position within the basic materials mining landscape. Its FY2025 operating margin of 45.7% ($10,353 million operating income on $22,669 million revenue) surpasses the industry benchmark operating margin of 40.4% and outpaces peers such as FCX (33.4%), NUE (15.7%), SHW (18.1%), and ECL (18.5%). With gold dore generating $14,330 million (63.2%) of revenue and byproduct AISC tracking at $1,621 per ounce, Newmont sits comfortably in the lower half of the global cost curve, generating robust cash flows while maintaining net cash balance sheet strength ($7,647M cash vs $5,598M debt).2,3,4,6,7
§11 مدیریت موقعیتEN
اندازه موقعیت
3-5%
Newmont is a premier cyclical basic materials holding with world-class gold dore scale and net cash balance sheet strength. Trading at $116.95, the stock sits at a 9.64% discount to our compositefair value midpoint of $129.42, placing it within our -10% to +10% Hold threshold. Investors should maintain current allocations while monitoring AISC cost execution and cave ramp-up at Cadia.3,4,6
ریسک
Risk management for Newmont Corporation centers on managing cyclical commodity price volatility, mining input cost inflation, and development project execution risks. Position weights should be capped at moderate portfolio levels (3-5%) given high sensitivity to spot gold prices. Downside risk is substantially mitigated by Newmont's strong liquidity profile, including $7,647 million in cash against $5,598 million in total debt, low debt-to-capital ratio of 4.35%, and geographic off-take diversification across the UK, South Korea, Japan, and China. Investors should maintain strict stop-loss discipline and dynamically rebalance positions as market prices approach the fair value midpoint of $129.42.
بخش‌های ورود
سطح
اقدام
چرا
$105.00 - $110.00
Evaluate initial incremental position addition
A retracement into this price band expands the discount to fair value ($129.42) beyond 15%, providing an attractive margin of safety above our primary DCF valuation midpoint ($100.17).
Newmont's Tier 1 mining scale and strong balance sheet liquidity with $7,647 million in cash against $5,598 million of total debt offer durable protection. However, at $116.95 versus our fair value of $129.42 and a forward P/E of 11.63x, the 9.64% discount is insufficient to warrant increasing long-term capital commitments.2,3,6
Income and Capital Return Investor
Hold
The annual dividend of $1.04 per share is well-supported by FY2025 free cash flow of $7,299 million, but capital allocation prioritizes major project reinvestment ($3.35 billion guided capex for FY2026) and opportunistic share buybacks rather than substantial dividend expansion.4,5
Tactical Cyclical Trader
Hold
Realized gold price gains expanded FY2025 operating margin to 45.7%, but recent downward consensus EPS revisions from $10.58 to $10.24 for FY2027 and diesel cost inflation averaging $100 per barrel suggest that positive revisions are cooling near term.1,3,4
§14 توصیه نهاییEN
اقدام
نگهداری
Maintain existing holdings. Newmont Corporation trades at $116.95, reflecting a 9.64% discount to our compositefair value midpoint of $129.42. This sits squarely inside the Hold band (-10% to +10%). Exceptional FY2025 operating cash flow of $10,334 million and $7,647 million in cash reserves justify holding existing shares, but guided FY2026 capital intensity of $3.35 billion limits margin of safety for incremental buying.3,4,6
Investors should refrain from aggressive accumulation until a wider discount to fair value appears or until execution across Cadia PC2-3 and Tanami confirms sustaining cost discipline below $1,621 per ounce.
§15یادداشتهای شما
تز سرمایه‌گذاری، اندازه موقعیت و پرسشهای پیگیری خود را ثبت کنید. روی همین دستگاه میماند و فقط شما آن را میبینید.
یادداشتهای خصوصی
فقط برای شما قابل مشاهده است. روی همین دستگاه ذخیره می‌شود.
۰ نویسه
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Cyclical bullion price downturn and mine development sequencing bottlenecks impairing top-line expansion.
Consensus projects 18.14% revenue growth in FY2026 to $26,781M, but commodity price softening and project feasibility delays would sharply reverse top-line revenue expansion, triggering a 28% impairment to fair value if 5-year growth falls below 8.14%.1,4
FV impact
-11.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Market de-rating of gold mining equity multiples toward cyclical trough levels due to cost inflation and reserve replacement anxiety.
AISC exceeding the guided $1,680/oz cap signals persistent unit cost inflation across underground mining sites, directly impairing structural cash generation and free cash flow conversion.
وضعیت فعلی:$1,621 per ounce in Q2 2026
هشدار در صورت> $1,680 per ounce full-year guidance ceiling
Capex escalating beyond $3,800 million (substantially above guided FY2026 spending of $3.35 billion comprising $1.95 billion sustaining and $1.40 billion development) demonstrates severe development cost creep across Cadia, Tanami, or Lihir without matching volume additions.
Geopolitical friction, trade restrictions, or smelter operational bottlenecks in East Asia would strand concentrate production of up to $8,339 million, inducing working capital builds and delaying operating cash conversion.
وضعیت فعلی:$6,609 million / 29.1% of FY2025 revenue (South Korea $3,196M, Japan $2,002M, China $1,411M)
هشدار در صورت> 25% disruption in Asian concentrate off-take volume
Gold dore revenue share falling below 50.0% would signify major unplanned production outages or accelerated reserve depletion across primary gold operations, undermining the scale economies that underpin Newmont's commercial cost advantage.
وضعیت فعلی:63.2% of consolidated revenue ($14,330 million in FY2025)
Mining sector input cost inflation across diesel fuel, electricity, labor, and reagents.
medium
6 to 18 months
Supply-chain optimization, fleet electrification, parking surplus equipment to reduce consumption, and volume additions from high-grade access at Cadia PC2-3.4
Development project scope changes, feasibility delays, and capital expenditure escalation.
medium
12 to 36 months
Disciplined feasibility study approvals, phased capital allocation commitments, and second-half expenditure gating maintaining net cash flexibility.4
In the bull scenario, sustained bullion price strength combines with flawless mine execution across Cadia, Tanami, and Lihir. Byproduct AISC remains contained near $1,621 per ounce, driving operating margins above 45.0% and diluted EPS toward $12.09 by FY2027. Annual free cash flow exceeds $8.5 billion, enabling accelerated share repurchases and capital returns.1,3,4
فعلیGenerated $14,330 million in FY2025 revenue, with consolidated FY2026 revenue projected at $26,780 million.
چرا مهم است
Gold dore accounts for the majority of consolidated revenue, providing the baseline commercial scale and operating leverage underpinning house cash flow forecasts.
03
معیار:
Development Project Execution at Cadia, Tanami, and Lihir
فعلیFull-year FY2026 development capex guided at $1.40 billion, with PC2-3 cave handover progressing.
چرا مهم است
Growth capital spending replaces depleting reserves and accesses higher-grade ore bodies to sustain production volumes without excessive unit cost inflation.
04
معیار:
Asian Smelter Concentrate Off-take Settlement Flow
فعلیOperating stably across South Korea ($3,196M), Japan ($2,002M), and China ($1,411M).
چرا مهم است
Concentrate off-take across East Asian industrial smelters accounts for a substantial share of revenue and must clear continuously to prevent inventory builds.
05
معیار:
Diesel Fuel and Mining Input Inflation Lag
فعلیManagement noted lagged diesel cost flow-through in Q3 2026, maintaining an active cost monitoring brief.
چرا مهم است
Elevated diesel fuel prices exert delayed cost pressure on open-pit and underground haulage, challenging operating margin durability.
Newmont executes a disciplined capital allocation framework enabled by substantial balance sheet liquidity. At the end of FY2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $7,647 million against total debt of $5,598 million, providing a strong net cash cushion. Management balances essential sustaining capital ($1.95 billion guided in FY2026) and long-term project growth ($1.40 billion guided) with shareholder distributions. Management utilizes excess cash flow for share repurchases, supporting an assumed -0.5% annual diluted share count reduction in FY2026 and FY2027 while preserving long-term balance sheet resilience.
Scale in gold dore production drives powerful operating cash conversion during bullion price upcycles.
Q2 2026 byproduct AISC of $1,621 per ounce tracked below full-year guidance of $1,680 per ounce, supported by $8,339 million in concentrate and byproduct sales.
Byproduct credits and mine site productivity initiatives protect unit operating margins against industry-wide energy and labor inflation.
Net cash balance sheet strength provides strategic flexibility across the capital cycle.
Cash and equivalents of $7,647 million comfortably exceed total debt of $5,598 million, supporting full funding of guided $3.35B capex.
Newmont has minimal refinancing risk and can self-fund development commitments at Cadia, Tanami, and Lihir while returning excess capital to shareholders.
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
قیمت / ارزش منصفانه
ارزش منصفانه$۱۵۳٫۶۷Report-date price$۳۲۹٫۱
تاریخ ارزیابی
مزیت رقابتیWide
کارت امتیاز سرمایه‌گذاری۵۹ / 100
Ecolab Inc.ECL
قیمت / ارزش منصفانه
ارزش منصفانه$۲۰۳٫۹۹Report-date price$۲۷۳٫۷
تاریخ ارزیابی
مزیت رقابتیWide
کارت امتیاز سرمایه‌گذاری۶۲ / 100
حاشیه سود
NEM
Newmont Corporation
$122.3B
11.6x
4.8x
7.0x
25.9%
—
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
$101.1B
16.9x
3.9x
12.7x
14.8%
33.4%
NUE
Nucor Corporation
$53.7B
12.0x
1.5x
10.7x
14.5%
15.7%
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
$79.8B
24.2x
3.3x
20.2x
65.1%
18.1%
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
$77.9B
29.5x
4.6x
21.1x
22.0%
18.5%
Extractive Mining Inflation and Decarbonization Mandates
negative
Rising expenditures for heavy mining machinery, diesel fuel averaging ~$100/barrel, skilled labor, and environmental compliance exert upward pressure on all-in sustaining costs across the mining industry.
Evaluate secondary position addition
Aligns closely with our primary enterprise DCF valuation anchor ($100.17) and normalized owner earnings power ($90.82), backed by $7,647M in balance sheet cash.
> $3.50 billion in FY2026 without corresponding production growth
Re-examine capital allocation discipline, inspect project overrun risk at Cadia/Lihir, and trim position.
