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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
AKAM — frequently asked questions
Is Akamai Technologies, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-13, AKAM looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 99,9 USD versus our fair value of 111 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 147 USD. That implies roughly 11.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-13, gives AKAM a fair value of 111 USD and a potential value of 147 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Akamai Technologies, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy AKAM now?
Our latest published rating for AKAM, analyzed 2026-10-13, is Buy. Akamai Technologies, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 99,9 USD versus fair value of 111 USD; potential value is 147 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for AKAM?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-13 documents Akamai Technologies, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is AKAM's rating?
Our latest published rating for AKAM, analyzed 2026-10-13, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 111 USD, the potential value of 147 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (99,9 USD).
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§1 RésuméEN
Réponse en 30 secondesBuy
Prix par rapport à la valeur
Cours
$99.93
Juste valeur
$111.26
Valeur potentielle
$147.13
Au
2026-10-13
Pourquoi le scénario peut fonctionner
The biggest opportunity lies in the rapid monetization of Akamai's $2.8B CIS contract backlog.
Ce qui changerait notre avis
GPU supply delays, power interconnect bottlenecks, or extended delivery lead times preventing the activation of planned CIS compute clusters by Q4 2026,.
Akamai Technologies presents an attractive Buy opportunity at $99.93, trading at a 10.18% discount to our compositefair value of $111.26, as enterprise cybersecurity momentum and high-growth Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) successfully counter structural CDN delivery headwinds.4
Akamai's revenue mix has fundamentally shifted away from commoditized CDN distribution. In Q2 2026, Security revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $604M and is tracking toward management's full-year target of more than $2.4B. Simultaneously, Cloud Infrastructure Services expanded 39% year-over-year to $99M, propelled by enterprise demand for distributed compute and GPU capacity. Management has secured over $2.8B in multi-year CIS contract commitments year-to-date, including a landmark four-year contract exceeding $600M with a major robotics technology enterprise.
While legacy Delivery revenue contracted 6% year-over-year to $396M in Q2 2026 and is guided down mid-single digits for full-year 2026, its revenue drag is diminishing as Security and CIS now account for nearly two-thirds of total turnover. The business generates durable cash flows, delivering $1.52B in operating cash flow and $1.01B in free cash flow in FY2025,, providing robust self-funding capacity for the ongoing GPU infrastructure buildout.5,6,7
The market's current valuation at 15.02x forward earnings discounts near-term capital expenditure intensity—guided to peak at 43% to 46% of revenue in Q3 2026 —without giving full credit to the guided low-teens revenue re-acceleration in FY2027. Our valuation framework balances normalized discounted earnings ($143.74) with near-term forward earnings ($96.38), cash flow ($80.91), and enterprise DCF ($105.67) to establish a fair value of $111.26, providing an 11.34% upside opportunity from current levels of $99.93.4,5
Rapid Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) Scaling and Backlog Conversion
Akamai has accumulated over $2.8B in multi-year CIS customer commitments year-to-date, including a $600M+ four-year robotics agreement. With GPU cluster racking scheduled for Q3 and Q4 2026, CIS is guided to grow at least 50% in FY2026, setting up low-teens revenue growth in FY2027.5
Enterprise security revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $604M and is targeted to surpass $2.4B in FY2026. High-switching-cost products such as Guardicore microsegmentation and LayerX browser security offset structural 6% declines in commoditized CDN delivery,.5
We rate Akamai Technologies a Buy with a compositefair value of $111.26, representing 11.34% upside from the current share price of $99.93. The market overly discounts temporary capex escalation, offering an attractive risk/reward profile as CIS and cybersecurity accelerate growth into FY2027.4
Présentation de l’entreprise
Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is a global cloud computing, cybersecurity, and content delivery network (CDN) provider headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Operating across more than 700 cities in 130 countries, Akamai organizes its business into three core solution categories: Security, Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS), and Delivery and other cloud applications.
Akamai's Security solutions protect enterprise infrastructure, applications, and APIs from distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, ransomware, and credential abuse, anchored by products like Guardicore microsegmentation and LayerX browser security. Its Cloud Infrastructure Services segment provides full-stack distributed computing, edge compute, and GPU-accelerated infrastructure for artificial intelligence and robotics workloads, while the Delivery segment distributes video, software downloads, and web content globally.
§2 Cas baissierEN
Under this combined stress test, consolidated revenue growth stalls below 3% YoY, trailing management's guided low teens for FY2027. Fixed infrastructure depreciation and power commitments without corresponding Q4 GPU revenue generation compress non-GAAP operating margin to 21%, well below the mid-20s guidance. With free cash flow constrained by peak capital expenditures reaching $475M-$525M in Q3 2026, refinancing $1.71B in current convertible notes at an elevated pre-tax cost of debt increases annual interest expense and lifts WACC toward 9.25%. In this stress environment, equity fair value compresses toward the downside boundary of $79.91.
Persistent GPU hardware delivery delays and data center interconnect constraints restrict CIS deployment,.5
Comment cette thèse peut échouer
GPU supply delays and power interconnect constraints stall CIS cluster activation, triggering customer cancellation of multi-year compute commitments and halving projected 2027 revenue growth.
Delayed GPU shipments and power interconnect constraints push cluster deployment beyond Q4 2026,. If delivery delays persist and enterprise customers cancel commitments from the $2.8B contract backlog, consolidated revenue growth would fall below 5% YoY, failing to achieve the guided low-teens expansion in FY2027, resulting in a 28.5% fair value decline.5
FV impact
-5.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
Les cinq évolutions qui affaibliraient notre thèse d’investissement.
Akamai's competitive moat is evaluated as Narrow, anchored by high customer switching costs in enterprise security and structural scale advantages from its globally distributed edge architecture. The company has methodically transitioned away from reliance on commoditized content delivery networks (CDNs) by building an enterprise cybersecurity platform that generates more than $2.4B in annual revenue. Products like Guardicore microsegmentation and LayerX browser security are deeply embedded into enterprise security operations, making vendor substitution disruptive and costly.
In cloud infrastructure, Akamai does not attempt to compete head-on with hyperscaler commodity storage; instead, it leverages infrastructure deployed across 700 cities in 130 countries to deliver distributed compute, low-latency inference, and significantly lower egress transit costs,. This edge network architecture attracts specialized enterprise workloads, demonstrated by $2.8B in multi-year contract signings year-to-date.
The moat remains classified as Narrow rather than Wide due to persistent pricing headwinds and low barriers to substitution in the legacy CDN delivery segment, which contracted 6% YoY in Q2 2026,. Nevertheless, because Security and CIS now generate approximately two-thirds of total turnover, the overall competitive position remains stable and defensible.
Profit économique
In FY2025, operating income reached $566.94M on invested capital backed by $6.91B in total debt, generating returns slightly above the computed WACC of 7.27%. As capital expenditures peak in FY2026 to stand up GPU clusters and non-GAAP operating margins remain in the 24%-26% range, economic profits will expand in FY2027 with low-teens revenue acceleration.2,4,5,7
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs & Software Integration — Enterprise cybersecurity customers embed Akamai's Guardicore microsegmentation, API security, and LayerX browser governance deep into production IT environments. Ripping and replacing security and policy infrastructure involves substantial operational disruption and implementation costs, sustaining Security revenue growth at 10% YoY to $604M in Q2 2026 and targeted to exceed $2.4B in FY2026.Wide
02Global Edge Distribution & Installed Base — Akamai operates edge computing and caching infrastructure deployed across more than 700 cities in 130 countries. This extensive physical edge footprint gives Akamai structurally lower egress costs and latency advantages for distributed AI inference and video delivery compared to centralized hyperscalers, generating $2.07B in non-US revenue in FY2025.
Menaces connues pour l'avantage
Menace
Gravité
Calendrier
Atténuation
Accelerating Price Degradation in Core CDN Delivery
medium
6-18 months
Management manages the CDN delivery contraction (down 6% YoY in Q2 2026), by repurposing bandwidth and transit capacity toward higher-margin Cloud Infrastructure Services and edge compute workloads.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($111.26). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $231.9M after modeled reinvestment of $695.6M, with terminal value at 86.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the Base scenario, Akamai executes according to management's published roadmap. Strong expansion in CIS and steady high-single-digit gains in Security fully counter ongoing mid-single-digit declines in CDN delivery. Operating margins remain stable in the mid-20s, generating consistent earnings growth that supports our compositefair value of $111.26.
Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue expands by more than 65% in FY2026 and sustains >40% annual growth through FY2028.5
§7 Arbre de décision sur les résultatsEN
Dépassé
Maintain Buy; Maintain core position. Verify that Q4 GPU cluster deployment proceeds on schedule and track follow-on bookings from the multi-year backlog.
Déclencheur: Q3 2026 revenue above $1.13B and non-GAAP EPS above $1.80, with Q4 CIS acceleration confirmed,.5
A beat validates that Q3 capex execution translated directly into operational cluster revenue without margin dilution, solidifying the 2027 acceleration path.
Conforme
Maintain Buy; Reaffirm current allocation. Confirm non-GAAP operating margins remain within guided boundaries and review delivery revenue decline rates.
Déclencheur: Q3 2026 revenue within $1.11B-$1.13B and non-GAAP EPS within $1.60-$1.80, with non-GAAP operating margin at 24%-26%,,.5
An inline result indicates that hardware deployments and security cross-selling are tracking within management guidance, maintaining intrinsic valuation.
Manqué
Downgrade the rating; Reduce portfolio weighting and reassess capital expenditure pacing if cluster deployments face extended vendor delays or margin erosion.
Déclencheur: Q3 2026 revenue below $1.11B or non-GAAP EPS below $1.60, or non-GAAP operating margin falling below 24%,,.5
A miss driven by execution delays or margin compression below guided floors compromises FY2027 revenue targets and warrants downgrading the rating.
Qualité des résultats
Akamai exhibits solid non-GAAP earnings quality supported by $1.52B in FY2025 operating cash flow and $326.27M in Q2 2026 operating cash flow. The variance between Q2 2026 GAAP operating income ($80.28M) and non-GAAP operating income ($270.71M) is driven by $146.29M in stock-based compensation and $25.09M in acquisition amortization. Stock-based compensation dilution is partially offset by active share repurchases, including $409.86M deployed in Q2 2026 to repurchase 3M shares.7
Dynamique des estimations
Consensus earnings estimates have stabilized following the Q2 earnings release, with FY2026 consensus EPS holding at $6.64 and FY2027 consensus EPS at $6.85. FY2026 consensus revenue stands at $4.49B and FY2027 at $5.22B, reflecting consistent sell-side expectations ahead of anticipated Q4 GPU cluster deployments.1
Operating cash flow was $1.52B in FY2025 and $326.27M in Q2 2026 (30% of revenue),. Free cash flow reached $1.01B in FY2025 after $507.79M in capital expenditures,. While free cash flow will trough during the Q3 2026 peak capex ramp, it is expected to rebound sharply in FY2027 as capital intensity normalizes and multi-year CIS contracts begin billing.5,6,7
Allocation du capital
Akamai's capital allocation balances aggressive infrastructure reinvestment with disciplined shareholder returns. In response to unprecedented GPU demand, capital expenditures will surge in FY2026, peaking at $475M-$525M (43%-46% of ) in Q3 2026,, before moderating toward steady-state levels. Simultaneously, management remains committed to share repurchases, deploying $409.86M in Q2 2026 to retire 3.0M shares, backed by $4.62B in cash and .
In FY2025, operating income reached $566.94M against total debt of $6.91B. While peak FY2026 capex exceeding $1.3B temporarily elevates invested capital and suppresses near-term free cash flow, the contractual nature of the $2.8B CIS backlog ensures a rapid return inflection as cluster racking in Q4 converts directly into incremental revenue.
Akamai's normalized returns on invested capital currently exceed its computed WACC of 7.27%, with ROIC poised to expand further as capital-intensive GPU clusters transition from construction to high-utilization production in FY2027.
Q2 2026 capex of $346.54M escalates to $475M-$525M (43%-46% of ) in Q3 2026,, driving full-year capex above $1.3B before moderating toward steady-state levels in 2027-2028.
Dernier chiffre d’affaires4,2 Md $USTCAC du chiffre d’affaires +6,7 %
Marge opérationnelle13,5 %10 périodes fiscales
Dernier flux de trésorerie disponible1 Md $USFY2025
Dette nette5,7 Md $USFY2025
Décomposition du compte de résultatComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.30 juin 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Chiffre d'affaires1,1 Md $USCoût des ventes+0 $USMarge brute1,1 Md $USCharges d’exploitation−1 Md $USRésultat d'exploitation80,3 M $USÉléments hors exploitation et impôts−880 k $USRésultat net79,4 M $US
Données de l’historique financier
Chiffre d'affaires
1 099 682 000 $US
Coût des ventes
0 $US
Marge brute
1 099 683 000 $US
Charges d’exploitation
1 019 399 000 $US
Résultat d'exploitation
80 284 000 $US
Éléments hors exploitation et impôts
-880 000 $US
Résultat net
79 404 000 $US
Aperçu du bilanComment les actifs publiés sont détenus et financés pour la période sélectionnée.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composition des actifsFinancé par
Total de l’actif11,5 Md $USTrésorerie930,2 M $USActifs courants2,3 Md $USTotal du passif6,5 Md $USPassifs courants967,5 M $USCapitaux propres5 Md $US
Données de ventilation du bilan
Total de l’actif
11 479 643 000 $US
Trésorerie
930 231 000 $US
Actifs courants
2 286 680 000 $US
Total du passif
6 502 272 000 $US
Passifs courants
967 518 000 $US
Capitaux propres
4 977 371 000 $US
Passerelle des flux de trésorerieComment le flux de trésorerie d’exploitation est devenu du flux de trésorerie disponible en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Rapprochement des flux d’exploitation
Résultat net452 M $USDotations aux amortissements+708,6 M $USRémunération en actions+459,4 M $USAutres ajustements opérationnels−101,3 M $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation1,5 Md $US
Rapprochement de la trésorerie d’ouverture à la clôture
Trésorerie d’ouverture519,1 M $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation+1,5 Md $USFlux d’investissement−540,7 M $USFlux de financement−588 M $USEffet de change+22,2 M $USTrésorerie de clôture931,3 M $US
1,5 Md $US − 507,8 M $USFlux de trésorerie disponible 1 Md $US
Données de la passerelle des flux de trésorerie
Résultat net
452 031 000 $US
Entrées d’exploitation
1 620 044 000 $US
Dotations aux amortissements
708 611 000 $US
Rémunération en actions
459 402 000 $US
Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation
1 518 765 000 $US
Sorties d’exploitation
101 279 000 $US
Trésorerie disponible
2 060 087 000 $US
Trésorerie d’ouverture
519 084 000 $US
Effet de change
22 238 000 $US
Sorties d’investissement
540 743 000 $US
Capex
507 786 000 $US
Autres activités d’investissement
32 957 000 $US
Sorties de financement
588 036 000 $US
Émission nette de dette
551 210 000 $US
Rachats d’actions
799 963 000 $US
Autres activités de financement
339 283 000 $US
Trésorerie de clôture
931 308 000 $US
Flux d’investissement
-540 743 000 $US
Flux de financement
-588 036 000 $US
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart du chiffre d’affaires total pour 2025-12-31.
4,2 Md $USChiffre d’affaires total
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart
United States2,1 Md $US50,8 %+3,1 % sur un an
Non Us2,1 Md $US49,2 %+8 % sur un an
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-20 · SEC EDGAR
Données de répartition du chiffre d’affaires: Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d'affaires
Part
sur un an
United States
2,1 Md $US
50,8 %
3,1 %
Non Us
2,1 Md $US
49,2 %
8 %
Chiffre d’affaires et résultatsComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
Trésorerie et detteLiquidités disponibles face à l’endettement total.
Génération de trésorerieFlux de trésorerie d’exploitation comparé au flux de trésorerie disponible.
RentabilitéÉvolution des marges brute, opérationnelle et nette.
Données financières ponctuelles utilisées dans l’analyse du 2026-10-13.
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) trades at 15.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 19.1x compares with a peer median of 12.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Gen Digital Inc., GoDaddy Inc., VeriSign Inc. and Corpay Inc., as of 2026-10-13.
§10 Secteur et cycleEN
Phase du cycle
Expansion
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 17.8% and capex-to-depreciation reaches 2.45, confirming that the broader technology and cloud infrastructure industry is in an active capital expansion phase driven by aggressive AI infrastructure investments.
Cycle haussier
In an expansionary upcycle, enterprise adoption of distributed AI inference and edge computing accelerates, absorbing newly deployed GPU capacity rapidly. Akamai's $2.8B contract backlog converts into revenue ahead of schedule, driving Cloud Infrastructure Services growth well beyond the guided 50% baseline and enabling company revenue to outpace the guided low-teens rate in FY2027.
Cycle baissier
In a contractionary downcycle, enterprise software spending decelerates and AI infrastructure buildouts face digestion phases. Legacy CDN delivery pricing deteriorates faster than the mid-single digit guidance, while high fixed data center power and hardware depreciation costs compress operating margins below 24%, leaving capital-intensive compute clusters underutilized.
Tendances séculaires
Tendance
Impact
Note
Enterprise Artificial Intelligence and Distributed Inference
positive
Demand for edge computing and low-latency AI inference is expanding rapidly, creating multi-year demand for Akamai's Cloud Infrastructure Services, as evidenced by >$2.8B in multi-year contract signings year-to-date.
Zero-Trust Architecture and API Cybersecurity Demands
positive
Proliferation of ransomware, bot traffic, and API vulnerabilities drives secular enterprise adoption of microsegmentation and browser security, propelling Akamai's security revenue to over $2.4B in FY2026,.
Positionnement
Akamai occupies a unique hybrid position between traditional hyperscalers (such as AWS, Azure, and GCP) and commoditized CDN vendors. By combining a distributed edge network spanning 700 cities in 130 countries with full-stack compute, lower egress costs, and an enterprise cybersecurity franchise generating over $2.4B in revenue, Akamai avoids direct commodity hosting competition while capturing high-value distributed AI and robotics workloads.5
§11 Gestion de positionEN
Taille de position
3-5%
Conviction is moderate based on Akamai's mature cash-generative profile ($1.01B FY2025 FCF) and strong $2.8B contract backlog, balanced against near-term execution hurdles during peak Q3 capex ($475M-$525M) and $1.71B in convertible debt refinancing requirements.5,6
Risque
Position risk is controlled through disciplined entry scaling and continuous monitoring of GPU delivery milestones. Given the capital-intensive nature of the ongoing compute expansion, exposure should remain capped within the 3-5% allocation limit until Q4 2026 results confirm cluster monetization and operating cash flow re-expansion.
Tranches d'entrée
Niveau
Action
Pourquoi
$98.00 - $100.00
Initial Position Establishment
Current trading range near $99.93 offers a 10.18% discount to compositefair value ($111.26) and a favorable risk/reward profile.
$92.00 - $95.00
Secondary Accumulation
Provides opportunistic accumulation if broader tech market volatility or Q3 capex escalation creates temporary price pressure before Q4 cluster activation.
Trading at 15.02x forward earnings and a 10.18% discount to compositefair value ($111.26), Akamai offers robust cash flow backing ($1.01B FY2025 FCF) and substantial liquidity ($4.62B in cash and marketable securities).4,6
Growth & Catalyst Investor
Buy
The Cloud Infrastructure Services portfolio is expanding at >39% YoY with a guided acceleration to >50% in FY2026, establishing a strong catalyst path into FY2027 low-teens revenue growth.5
Risk-Sensitive / Defensive Investor
Hold
Near-term free cash flow is weighed down by peak Q3 capex (43%-46% of revenue) and the company faces $1.71B in current convertible debt refinancing, warranting position sizing discipline until Q4 execution is confirmed.5
§14 Recommandation finaleEN
Action
Acheter
We assign a Buy rating to Akamai Technologies Inc. with a compositefair value of $111.26, implying 11.34% upside from the current share price of $99.93.4
Akamai's aggressive expansion into distributed AI compute and enterprise cybersecurity successfully transforms its revenue profile away from legacy CDN delivery, setting up a sharp growth re-acceleration in FY2027 backed by over $1B in annual free cash flow.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-13 · Published 2026-10-13 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 4 figuresCited in Arbre de décision sur les résultats
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Enterprise customers cancel commitments within the $2.8B contract backlog, pulling 2027 consolidated revenue growth below 5%.
Fixed infrastructure costs and higher power expenses depress non-GAAP operating margin below 22%.5
Refinancing $1.71B in maturing convertible debt in a high-rate environment increases debt service costs.
In the Bear scenario, execution bottlenecks in GPU cluster installation delay revenue recognition while fixed data center power and hardware depreciation costs weigh on profitability. Legacy delivery pricing deteriorates faster than expected, and refinancing near-term convertible debt at higher prevailing rates increases interest expense, compressing operational margins and cash flow generation.
Trigger
Within 12 months
Accelerating price degradation in legacy delivery contracts combined with soaring data center power costs and unabsorbed fixed GPU hardware depreciation crushes operating margins.
Delivery revenue contracted 6% YoY in Q2 2026, while Q3 capex escalates to 43%-46% of revenue ($475M-$525M),. Fixed power contracts and hardware depreciation without immediate revenue absorption would compress non-GAAP operating margin below 22% of revenue, breaching the guided 24%-26% corridor, cutting fair value by 24.0%.5
FV impact
-2.2%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Rising interest rates and credit spread widening coincide with maturity of $1.71B current convertible notes, forcing refinancing at much higher debt expense and increasing WACC.
Akamai carries $1.71B in current convertible notes and $5.86B in non-current convertible notes, totaling $9.34B in total debt commitments,,. Refinancing near-term convertible tranches in an elevated interest-rate environment would push pre-tax cost of debt well above the current 5.78%, elevating computed WACC above 9.25% from 7.27% and driving a 21.5% fair value impairment.2,4
FV impact
-21.2%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
Market re-evaluates Akamai as a capital-intensive hosting and commoditized CDN provider rather than a high-multiple cloud software company, compressing terminal valuation.
Peers CPAY (12.67x forward P/E), GDDY (9.34x), and GEN (7.19x) demonstrate that mature compounders with single-digit growth trade at discounted multiples. If Akamai's compute buildout is perceived as low-margin colocation rather than differentiated edge computing, the market could compress its terminal multiple below 12.8x from the modeled 16.0x, inflicting an 18.0% fair value contraction.3
FV impact
-5.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Breaches management's guided 24%-26% range, proving that fixed GPU hardware depreciation and power overhead are eroding operational leverage.
Indicates severe cluster deployment delays or customer cancellations within the $2.8B contract backlog, invalidating full-year guidance of at least 50% growth.
Alerte si> 7.50% on new convertible debt issuances
Moderate
03Contract Backlog & Enterprise Platform Breadth — Akamai's multi-year contract backlog in Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) reached over $2.8B year-to-date, including a single four-year contract commitment exceeding $600M for robotics development. Bundling high-performance compute with edge networking and embedded cybersecurity creates significant platform friction against unbundled alternatives.Moderate
Hyperscaler Competition and GPU Colocation Commoditization
medium
12-24 months
Akamai avoids speculative capacity purchases by tying major GPU infrastructure deployments directly to signed multi-year customer commitments, while leveraging its 700-city edge distribution to offer lower egress costs than centralized public clouds,.5
Hardware Component and Power Input Cost Escalation
low
12-18 months
Customer contracts incorporate pricing escalators and pass-through adjustments for increases in power, hardware maintenance, and component costs,.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (19,78 $US) plus discounted terminal value (126 $US) minus signed per current share (39,82 $US) equals the 106 $US lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the Bull scenario, Akamai successfully establishes itself as a premier distributed AI compute platform. Cluster activations in Q4 2026 generate an immediate revenue inflection, accelerating company-wide revenue growth above 14% in FY2027. Operating leverage from high compute utilization lifts non-GAAP operating margins beyond 27%, driving fair value toward the high-end boundary of $147.13.5
Free cash flow will experience a temporary trough in Q3 2026 before expanding sharply in FY2027 as GPU deployment completes and customer contract billings commence.
Security revenue expanded 10% YoY to $604M in Q2 2026 toward a >$2.4B annual target, while CIS grew 39% YoY to $99M with >50% growth guided for full-year 2026.
The combined expansion of Security and Compute easily outpaces the 6% YoY contraction in legacy CDN delivery, setting the stage for consolidated revenue acceleration to low teens in FY2027.
Convertible Debt Maturity Manageable Given Cash Reserves
Akamai holds $4.62B in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026 against $1.71B in current convertible senior notes and $5.86B in non-current convertible notes.
Liquidity remains substantial, allowing the company to retire or refinance near-term notes without distress, even if pre-tax borrowing costs reflect elevated current rates of 5.78%.
Corpay, Inc.CPAY
Cours / juste valeur
Juste valeur493,18 $USReport-date price401,72 $US
Date d’évaluation
Avantage concurrentielNarrow
Score d’investissement62 / 100
Marge
AKAM
Akamai Technologies Inc.
$14.4B
15.0x
3.3x
19.1x
8.9%
—
GEN
Gen Digital Inc.
$14.3B
7.2x
2.8x
9.0x
41.9%
35.6%
GDDY
GoDaddy Inc.
$13.0B
9.3x
2.6x
12.0x
398.2%
24.7%
VRSN
VeriSign Inc.
$27.3B
27.3x
16.0x
24.1x
—
68.2%
CPAY
Corpay Inc.
$26.2B
12.7x
5.2x
12.2x
29.2%
46.9%
Commoditization of Unbundled Content Delivery Networks
negative
Pricing compression and DIY internal CDN deployments by mega-cap streaming platforms continue to erode legacy delivery revenue, resulting in a 6% decline in Q2 2026,.
>= 24.0% in Q3 2026 and >= 25.0% in Q4 2026
Reassess fixed power overhead and hardware depreciation absorption.5