Avec votre autorisation, nous utilisons une analyse limitée et respectueuse de la vie privée pour comprendre les parcours de recherche utiles. Nous n’utilisons ni traceurs publicitaires ni enregistrement de session. Vous pouvez modifier ce choix dans les préférences. Consultez la Politique de confidentialité.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
ANET — frequently asked questions
Is Arista Networks Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-09, ANET looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 195 USD versus our fair value of 61,3 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 79,2 USD. That implies roughly 68.5% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-09, gives ANET a fair value of 61,3 USD and a potential value of 79,2 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Arista Networks Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy ANET now?
Our latest published rating for ANET, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell. Arista Networks Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 195 USD versus fair value of 61,3 USD; potential value is 79,2 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for ANET?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-09 documents Arista Networks Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is ANET's rating?
Our latest published rating for ANET, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of 61,3 USD, the potential value of 79,2 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (195 USD).
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
Ce rapport n'a pas encore été traduit. Actualisez dans quelques minutes une fois que la file d'attente de traduction aura rattrapé son retard.
§1 RésuméEN
Réponse en 30 secondesSell
Prix par rapport à la valeur
Cours
$194.96
Juste valeur
$61.32
Valeur potentielle
$79.17
Au
2026-09-08
Pourquoi le scénario peut fonctionner
Delivery above FY2027 revenue and adjusted-earnings estimates, with operating and free cash flow at or above FY2025's $4.37 billion and $4.25 billion, could extend growth and raise value per share.
Ce qui changerait notre avis
The key trigger is FY2027 company revenue below $14.12 billion, the low end of the analyst range as of 2026-09-09.
Sell. The report-date price stands above Fair value and Potential value. Reseller concentration can cut sales, while strong cash generation remains the clearest route to better results.4
The shares were assessed at a price above both public valuation points, leaving an unfavorable return profile even if near-term estimates are delivered.4
The main risk is a hypothetical revenue break from lower reseller orders, repricing, or product digestion. The FY2025 filing establishes concentration, not that these events are occurring. If they occur, sales, , earnings, and cash could fall.
The constructive case rests on FY2027 estimate delivery and continued strong cash generation. Together, they could extend growth and improve value per share.1,6
Cycle upside
The favorable path is demand-led. Delivery of FY2027 revenue and earnings estimates would extend product growth while strong cash generation funds required investment.1,6
Evidence-backed thesis
Sell because the report-date price exceeds Potential value while product and reseller concentration can shorten the growth runway.4,7
Cycle upside
The favorable path is demand-led. Delivery of FY2027 revenue and earnings estimates would extend product growth while strong cash generation funds required investment.1,6
Recommandation maison
Sell because the report-date price exceeds Potential value. If either large reseller weakens, product-led sales could slow faster than the smaller service line can offset.4,7
Présentation de l’entreprise
Arista’s cognitive campus portfolio was driven by customers seeking the same quality and operational efficiency available in the data center across their enterprise networks. Arista Networks, Inc. offers a robust set of solutions, ranging from modular and fixed-form-factor campus spine switches to Power-over-Ethernet ("PoE") leaf switches and Wi-Fi access points, all managed through CloudVision®. Arista Networks, Inc. offers multiple service options, allowing its customers to select the product replacement service level that best meets their needs.
Arista Networks, Inc. stocks spare parts in over 200 locations worldwide through its third-party logistics suppliers. All its service options include unlimited access to bug fixes, new-feature releases, online case management, and its community forums.
§2 Cas baissierEN
The risks reinforce each other: weaker reseller demand reduces sales, lower volume pressures profit, and persistent investment consumes more cash. The standalone shocks should not be added together.
Product demand normalizes early, reseller weakness reaches consolidated sales, and margins or cash generation deteriorate.
This path is confirmed if FY2027 revenue falls below the analyst-range floor as of 2026-09-09. It is also confirmed if growth drops below the thesis floor before FY2029. The first breach lowers the modeled FY2027 sales base. The second signals slower growth, reducing incremental profit and cash without necessarily shrinking absolute revenue.
A breach would be consistent with weaker product purchases or lower reseller orders, without proving either cause. FY2025 product revenue was $7.58 billion versus $1.43 billion of service revenue, so a product shortfall would have limited offset and could reduce profit and cash.
Actuel :The FY2027 analyst mean was $16.16 billion as of 2026-09-09.
The moat rating is None. The cited record does not establish Arista-specific switching costs, platform lock-in, distribution strength, or scale advantages. FY2025 operating income was $3.86 billion and free cash flow was $4.25 billion; these are outcomes, not structural protection.
DELL and SMCI are procurement-pricing cross-checks, while SNDK and WDC test broader hardware-budget pressure. Their economics differ, and direct network-product substitution is unproven.
Profit économique
FY2025 operating income was $3.86 billion and free cash flow was $4.25 billion. These levels show realized economics for FY2025, but they do not establish switching costs or other structural protection.5,6
1/ 10
None
Menaces connues pour l'avantage
Menace
Gravité
Calendrier
Atténuation
Integrated-system pricing and hardware-budget competition could reduce sales or profit per sales dollar.
medium
Over the medium-term growth fade.
Judge the risk through Arista's own revenue and operating margin because the peer set has materially different economics and does not establish direct substitution.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($61.32). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $4.5B after modeled reinvestment of $63.8M, with terminal value at 69.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
FY2027 revenue and adjusted earnings meet their dated estimates. Operating margin stays at or above its FY2025 level, and operating cash remains above reported profit.1,6
The base path holds if both dated FY2027 estimates are met and operating cash remains above reported profit. It fails if annual revenue growth breaches the thesis floor before FY2029.1,6
FY2027 revenue and adjusted earnings exceed their dated means. Operating margin stays at or above its FY2025 level, and operating cash remains above reported profit.
§7 Arbre de décision sur les résultatsEN
Dépassé
Continue reducing exposure; do not chase a beat while $194.96 (as of 2026-09-08) remains above Potential value.
Déclencheur: FY2027 revenue and adjusted earnings exceed their dated analyst means. Operating margin stays at or above its FY2025 reported level. Operating and free cash flow each stay at or above their FY2025 reported amounts.1,5,6
A beat would require FY2027 companywide revenue and adjusted earnings to exceed their dated analyst means. Operating margin should remain at or above FY2025's reported level. Operating and free cash flow should each remain at or above their FY2025 reported amounts.
Conforme
Sell existing exposure under the Sell rating; do not retain a residual position solely because FY2027 estimates are met.
Déclencheur: FY2027 companywide revenue and adjusted earnings meet their dated analyst means. Operating margin is at or above the FY2025 reported level. Operating and free cash flow are each at or above their FY2025 reported amounts.1,5,6
Meeting near-term estimates would preserve the thesis but would not establish the later growth duration.
Manqué
Exit remaining exposure if FY2027 revenue breaks the dated analyst-range floor.
Déclencheur: FY2027 revenue falls below the dated range floor, or growth breaks the thesis floor before FY2029.
That miss would lower the explicit revenue base and shorten the product cycle.
Qualité des résultats
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, but stock-based compensation remains a real cost to shareholders.6
FY2025 free cash flow—the cash left after capital spending—was $4.25 billion after $119.5 million of capex. This level shows funding capacity, but not the return earned on recent investment.5,6
Allocation du capital
Capital spending rose from $32.0 million in FY2024 to $119.5 million in FY2025. FY2025 stock-based compensation was $439.2 million, so investment returns and share dilution remain relevant to value per share.
FY2025 operating profit was $3.86 billion and operating cash was $4.37 billion. Those one-year levels do not establish a dated return-on-invested-capital trend.
No same-basis comparison is made. The cited evidence establishes profit, cash, and the discount rate, not a comparable dated return series.
Reported profit converted strongly into cash during FY2025.
FY2025 stock-based compensation was reported separately, and FY2025 diluted average shares provide the relevant per-share basis.
Aggregate profit growth may not translate fully into value per share.
Dernier chiffre d’affaires9 Md $USTCAC du chiffre d’affaires +25,9 %
Marge opérationnelle42,8 %10 périodes fiscales
Dernier flux de trésorerie disponible4,3 Md $USFY2025
Décomposition du compte de résultatComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Chiffre d'affaires9 Md $USCoût des ventes−3,2 Md $USMarge brute5,8 Md $USCharges d’exploitation−1,9 Md $USRésultat d'exploitation3,9 Md $USÉléments hors exploitation et impôts−344,7 M $USRésultat net3,5 Md $US
Données de l’historique financier
Chiffre d'affaires
9 005 700 000 $US
Coût des ventes
3 237 000 000 $US
Marge brute
5 768 700 000 $US
Charges d’exploitation
1 912 600 000 $US
Résultat d'exploitation
3 856 100 000 $US
Éléments hors exploitation et impôts
-344 700 000 $US
Résultat net
3 511 400 000 $US
Aperçu du bilanComment les actifs publiés sont détenus et financés pour la période sélectionnée.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composition des actifsFinancé par
Total de l’actif19,4 Md $USTrésorerie2 Md $USActifs courants16,4 Md $USTotal du passif7,1 Md $USPassifs courants5,4 Md $USCapitaux propres12,4 Md $US
Données de ventilation du bilan
Total de l’actif
19 448 600 000 $US
Trésorerie
1 963 900 000 $US
Actifs courants
16 387 000 000 $US
Total du passif
7 078 100 000 $US
Passifs courants
5 376 500 000 $US
Capitaux propres
12 370 500 000 $US
Passerelle des flux de trésorerieComment le flux de trésorerie d’exploitation est devenu du flux de trésorerie disponible en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Rapprochement des flux d’exploitation
Résultat net3,5 Md $USDotations aux amortissements+72,6 M $USRémunération en actions+439,2 M $USAutres ajustements opérationnels+348,7 M $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation4,4 Md $US
Rapprochement de la trésorerie d’ouverture à la clôture
Trésorerie d’ouverture2,8 Md $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation+4,4 Md $USFlux d’investissement−3,6 Md $USFlux de financement−1,6 Md $USEffet de change+1,7 M $USTrésorerie de clôture2 Md $US
4,4 Md $US − 119,5 M $USFlux de trésorerie disponible 4,3 Md $US
Données de la passerelle des flux de trésorerie
Résultat net
3 511 400 000 $US
Entrées d’exploitation
4 371 900 000 $US
Dotations aux amortissements
72 600 000 $US
Rémunération en actions
439 200 000 $US
Autres ajustements opérationnels
348 700 000 $US
Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation
4 371 900 000 $US
Trésorerie disponible
7 137 400 000 $US
Trésorerie d’ouverture
2 763 800 000 $US
Effet de change
1 700 000 $US
Sorties d’investissement
3 576 200 000 $US
Capex
119 500 000 $US
Autres activités d’investissement
3 456 700 000 $US
Sorties de financement
1 595 900 000 $US
Rachats d’actions
1 603 100 000 $US
Trésorerie de clôture
1 965 300 000 $US
Flux d’investissement
-3 576 200 000 $US
Flux de financement
-1 595 900 000 $US
Chiffre d’affaires par activitéPart du chiffre d’affaires total pour 2025-12-31.
9 Md $USChiffre d’affaires total
Chiffre d’affaires par activitéPart
Product7,6 Md $US84,1 %+28,8 % sur un an
Service1,4 Md $US15,9 %+27,7 % sur un an
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-17 · SEC EDGAR
Données de répartition du chiffre d’affaires: Chiffre d’affaires par activité
Chiffre d’affaires par activité
Chiffre d'affaires
Part
sur un an
Product
7,6 Md $US
84,1 %
28,8 %
Service
1,4 Md $US
15,9 %
27,7 %
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart du chiffre d’affaires total pour 2025-12-31.
9 Md $USChiffre d’affaires total
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart
Americas7,1 Md $US79,1 %+24,3 % sur un an
EMEA1,1 Md $US11,9 %+50,1 % sur un an
Asia Pacific813,3 M $US9 %+45 % sur un an
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-17 · SEC EDGAR
Données de répartition du chiffre d’affaires: Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d'affaires
Part
sur un an
Americas
7,1 Md $US
79,1 %
24,3 %
EMEA
1,1 Md $US
11,9 %
50,1 %
Asia Pacific
813,3 M $US
9 %
45 %
Chiffre d’affaires et résultatsComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
Trésorerie et detteLiquidités disponibles face à l’endettement total.
Génération de trésorerieFlux de trésorerie d’exploitation comparé au flux de trésorerie disponible.
RentabilitéÉvolution des marges brute, opérationnelle et nette.
Données financières ponctuelles utilisées dans l’analyse du 2026-09-09.
Arista Networks Inc. (ANET) trades at 36.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 49.8x compares with a peer median of 20.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Sandisk Corporation, Dell Technologies Inc., Western Digital Corporation and Super Micro Computer Inc., as of 2026-09-09.
§10 Secteur et cycleEN
Phase du cycle
Expansion
Capital spending rose between FY2024 and FY2025. The industry benchmark also shows spending above depreciation, supporting an expansion reading.6
Cycle haussier
The demand-led favorable path requires FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS to meet their 2026-09-09 estimates. FY2025 operating cash flow was $4.37 billion, while capex was $119.5 million, supporting capacity to cover that spending from operating cash.
Cycle baissier
The adverse path begins when product demand normalizes faster than the smaller service business can offset. Sales then slow and operating leverage weakens.
Tendances séculaires
Tendance
Impact
Note
Companywide sales and earnings expectations
positive
The FY2027 analyst estimates as of 2026-09-09 cover companywide revenue and adjusted earnings. Meeting them would support the favorable near-term cycle, but this dated evidence does not extend beyond FY2027.
Positionnement
Strong FY2025 cash generation supports self-funded investment, but reseller and product concentration make the cycle less diversified.5,7
§11 Gestion de positionEN
Taille de position
Do not establish a new position while the report-date price remains above Potential value and the operating risks remain unresolved.4
Risque
Sell existing exposure now because the report-date price exceeds Potential value. Use FY2027 revenue below $14.12 billion—the analyst-range floor as of 2026-09-09—as confirmation that the sales anchor failed. Two fiscal years below 35% operating margin or sustained capital spending above the stated threshold provide further confirmation.
Tranches d'entrée
Niveau
Action
Pourquoi
Fair value or below
Reassess rather than buy automatically.
Require FY2027 estimate support, resilient margins, and continued cash generation before reconsidering.
Sell existing exposure now under the Sell rating. Continue using any FY2027 outlook below $14.12 billion as confirmation that the explicit sales anchor has failed.1
Reduce or exit rather than add; reseller concentration and product dependence can shorten the growth runway.7
Growth-focused investor
Avoid
Near-term estimates are strong, but dated support does not extend beyond FY2027.1
§14 Recommandation finaleEN
Action
Vendre
Sell because the report-date price stands above Fair value and Potential value, while the growth path remains exposed to product and reseller concentration.4,7
Strong cash generation supports the business, but it does not offset the valuation gap or prove that rapid growth will persist beyond FY2027.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 char
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A breach would show sales growth slowing below the modeled path, consistent with earlier product digestion or lower reseller orders without proving either cause. Slower growth would reduce incremental profit and operating leverage, lowering earnings and cash versus the expected path.
Actuel :The approved path expects 40.64% growth in FY2026 and 27.56% in FY2027.
Alerte siAnnual consolidated revenue growth drops below 15% in any fiscal year before FY2029.
Under this stress scenario, pricing, mix, or fixed-cost pressure would be worse than the expected fade. Less operating profit per sales dollar would lower earnings and cash.
Actuel :FY2025 operating income of $3.86 billion on $9.01 billion of revenue supports a 42.82% margin.
Alerte siGAAP operating margin remains below 35% for two fiscal years.
04
Cash per profit dollar
The breach would make reported profit less useful for funding investment and shareholder returns. It would remove the main cash-based support for the favorable path.
Actuel :FY2025 produced $1.25 of operating cash for each $1.00 of reported profit.
Alerte siOperating cash falls below $0.80 for each $1.00 of reported profit for one full fiscal year.
05
Capital spending intensity
Under this stress scenario, the investment phase would not normalize. More cash would remain tied up, lowering free cash flow without an evidenced revenue benefit from the spending.
Actuel :Capital spending was 1.65 times depreciation in FY2025, with capex at $119.5 million.
Alerte siCapital spending remains at or above 2.0 times depreciation for two consecutive years after FY2026.
Limitation: Terminal value is 69.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
The bull path needs FY2027 companywide revenue and adjusted earnings above their dated analyst means. Operating margin at or above FY2025's level and operating and free cash flow at or above FY2025 amounts would let higher sales lift profit and cash. It fades if product demand weakens and the smaller service line cannot offset lost sales.1,5,6,7
Pourquoi c'est important
Product digestion would reach consolidated sales faster than service could offset.7
03
Métrique:
Reseller concentration
ActuelFY2025 exposure remained concentrated.
Pourquoi c'est important
Lower orders remove sales, while repricing can reduce profit per sales dollar.7
Below the stress floor for consecutive fiscal years.
Reduce remaining exposure if GAAP operating margin stays below 35% for two fiscal years. That would exceed the expected fade from the FY2025 42.82% starting level.6
Capital spending intensity
At or above the escalation level for consecutive years after FY2026.
Avoid re-entry if capital spending remains at or above 2.0 times depreciation for two years after FY2026. The investment phase would not have normalized, and no separate sales benefit is assumed.
