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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CME — frequently asked questions
Is CME Group Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, CME screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 302 USD versus our fair value of 261 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 341 USD. That implies roughly 13.6% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives CME a fair value of 261 USD and a potential value of 341 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for CME Group Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CME now?
Our latest published rating for CME, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce. CME Group Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 302 USD versus fair value of 261 USD; potential value is 341 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CME?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents CME Group Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CME's rating?
Our latest published rating for CME, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 261 USD, the potential value of 341 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (302 USD).
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§1 RésuméEN
Réponse en 30 secondesReduce
Prix par rapport à la valeur
Cours
$302.37
Juste valeur
$261.16
Valeur potentielle
$341.31
Au
Date de cotation non enregistrée
Pourquoi le scénario peut fonctionner
Bull: Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging activity and volume across CME's product suite.
Ce qui changerait notre avis
ZIRP Return: A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
CME Group exhibits a perfect textbook archetype fit as a Mature Compounder with highly predictable margins and monopolistic barriers. However, the stock is priced for perfection, trading at an extreme PEG premium relative to peers and assuming 8.5% structural growth.
CME Group exhibits a perfect textbook archetype fit as a Mature Compounder with highly predictable margins and monopolistic barriers. However, the stock is priced for perfection, trading at an extreme PEG premium relative to peers and assuming 8.5% structural growth.
Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
Cycle upside
High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.
Recommandation maison
Reduce based on an overextended valuation that leaves no margin of safety for a mature exchange operator.
Présentation de l’entreprise
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
§2 Cas baissierEN
A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatility, dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.
A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatility, dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression toward the mid-teens.
Comment cette thèse peut échouer
ZIRP Return
20%· Medium
A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
FV impact
Drives fair value to $181.11, a 40% downside from current prices.
Regulatory Fee Capping
10%· Low
Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin streams.
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
Les cinq évolutions qui affaibliraient notre thèse d’investissement.
Operational expenses outpacing transaction revenues impairs structural profitability, signaling that severe volume compression or cost inflation is eroding high-margin clearing returns.
Actuel :Operating margin was 64.9% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerte siFalls below 60.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
02
§3 Avantage concurrentielEN
Wide
Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
Profit économique
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivat — Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.Wide
02Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barr — Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.Wide
Menaces connues pour l'avantage
Menace
Gravité
Calendrier
Atténuation
Regulatory intervention limiting data fees.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) or blockchain trading alternatives.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($261.16). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging activity and volume across CME's product suite. The company pushes through pricing increases uninhibited, scaling margins further and driving low-double-digit EPS growth.
Actuel :Revenue growth was 6.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerte siSlows to 2.0% or lower over any fiscal year
03
Interest Rate Derivative Trading Volumes
Interest rate products represent the primary earnings engine, meaning sustained activity declines directly compress transactional clearing revenues and diminish market depth.
Actuel :Core derivative trading volumes sensitive to rate volatility as of 2026-05-20
Alerte siContracts by more than 15.0% year-over-year across two consecutive quarters
04
Market Data Fee Regulatory Capping
Statutory limitations on high-margin data services restrict recurring revenue diversification, eliminating predictable non-transactional cash flows that insulate operating income during cyclical volume downturns.
Actuel :Uncapped proprietary market data and clearing fee structure as of 2026-05-20
Alerte siEnactment of federal statutory fee caps or mandatory fee reductions within 24 months
05
Core Commodity Futures Market Share
Liquidity fragmentation to alternative trading venues breaks the self-reinforcing network effects of centralized clearing, forcing defensive fee cuts and permanently impairing pricing power.
Actuel :Dominant clearinghouse position across agricultural and energy commodities as of 2026-05-20
Alerte siLoss of more than 5.0% market share to competing venues within a twelve-month period
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
CME Group benefits from near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives. Its vertically integrated clearinghouse acts as a massive competitive barrier. As a mature compounder, it generates extraordinary margins and massive free cash flow.
ActuelRevenue growth was 6.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Pourquoi c'est important
Warning level: Slows to 2.0% or lower over any fiscal year. Top-line deceleration undermines operating leverage and signals transactional volume fatigue, triggering valuation multiple compression toward historical cyclical trough ranges.
03
Métrique:
Interest Rate Derivative Trading Volumes
ActuelCore derivative trading volumes sensitive to rate volatility as of 2026-05-20
Pourquoi c'est important
Warning level: Contracts by more than 15.0% year-over-year across two consecutive quarters. Interest rate products represent the primary earnings engine, meaning sustained activity declines directly compress transactional clearing revenues and diminish market depth.
04
Métrique:
Market Data Fee Regulatory Capping
ActuelUncapped proprietary market data and clearing fee structure as of 2026-05-20
Pourquoi c'est important
Warning level: Enactment of federal statutory fee caps or mandatory fee reductions within 24 months. Statutory limitations on high-margin data services restrict recurring revenue diversification, eliminating predictable non-transactional cash flows that insulate operating income during cyclical volume downturns.
05
Métrique:
Core Commodity Futures Market Share
ActuelDominant clearinghouse position across agricultural and energy commodities as of 2026-05-20
Pourquoi c'est important
Warning level: Loss of more than 5.0% market share to competing venues within a twelve-month period. Liquidity fragmentation to alternative trading venues breaks the self-reinforcing network effects of centralized clearing, forcing defensive fee cuts and permanently impairing pricing power.
