Avec votre autorisation, nous utilisons une analyse limitée et respectueuse de la vie privée pour comprendre les parcours de recherche utiles. Nous n’utilisons ni traceurs publicitaires ni enregistrement de session. Vous pouvez modifier ce choix dans les préférences. Consultez la Politique de confidentialité.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FSLR — frequently asked questions
Is First Solar, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-09, FSLR looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 178 USD versus our fair value of 270 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 334 USD. That implies roughly 51.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-09, gives FSLR a fair value of 270 USD and a potential value of 334 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for First Solar, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FSLR now?
Our latest published rating for FSLR, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy. First Solar, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 178 USD versus fair value of 270 USD; potential value is 334 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FSLR?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-09 documents First Solar, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FSLR's rating?
Our latest published rating for FSLR, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 270 USD, the potential value of 334 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (178 USD).
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
Ce rapport n'a pas encore été traduit. Actualisez dans quelques minutes une fois que la file d'attente de traduction aura rattrapé son retard.
§1 RésuméEN
Réponse en 30 secondesStrong Buy
Prix par rapport à la valeur
Cours
$177.82
Juste valeur
$269.84
Valeur potentielle
$333.85
Au
2026-10-09
Pourquoi le scénario peut fonctionner
First Solar's greatest opportunity lies in capturing multi-gigawatt direct procurement contracts from hyperscalers expanding artificial intelligence data center campuses.
Ce qui changerait notre avis
Southeast Asian crystalline module dumping evading trade enforcement combined with persistent domestic freight cost inflation.
First Solar is rated Strong Buy, supported by a contracted 45 GW module backlog, proprietary thin-film cost advantages, and strong domestic manufacturing expansion.
The house rating is Strong Buy. For an ordinary investor, this indicates high-conviction risk-adjusted upside potential supported by substantial cash-flow compounding and contractual revenue visibility.
As of the report date, the shares traded at 177.82. This represents an implied upside of 51.75% to the house Fair value of 269.84, with Potential value reaching 333.85 at the top of the valuation range.3
The primary risk that could impair this thesis is potential legislative or regulatory rollback of Section 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credits, compounded by domestic freight and commodity inflation that would compress toward 25.0%. An investor would observe this risk through compression below 30% and backlog de-commitments.
The main driver supporting intrinsic value growth is First Solar's proprietary CdTe thin-film manufacturing platform, which provides an unmatched conversion cost per watt and qualifies 41 GW of its 45 GW backlog for domestic content bonuses. As new manufacturing facilities ramp up in Alabama and South Carolina, high-margin domestic shipments drive projected consensus EPS to $23.16 by FY2027, compounding shareholder value while preserving over $2.6B in net liquidity.1,2,4,7
cost_advantage
First Solar operates fully integrated continuous-line CdTe thin-film manufacturing facilities that bypass polysilicon and ingot-wafer supply chain bottlenecks, yielding an industry-leading conversion cost per watt.4
intangible_assets
Proprietary CdTe semiconductor intellectual property and CuRe conversion efficiency enhancements prevent direct replication by crystalline silicon peers, while domestic facility certification allows customers to claim IRA Section 45X and domestic content bonus depreciation.4
Cycle upside
The bull cycle is propelled by rising electricity demand from hyperscale artificial intelligence data centers, utility decarbonization mandates, and supportive federal manufacturing policies. Under these conditions, demand for domestic-content eligible modules outpaces supply, allowing Tier-1 domestic producers to command healthy pricing premiums.4
Recommandation maison
Rated Strong Buy due to unmatched domestic backlog visibility, structural CdTe thin-film cost advantages, and an immaculate net cash balance sheet.
Présentation de l’entreprise
First Solar, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells advanced cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film photovoltaic solar modules that convert sunlight into clean electricity. The company operates as a single business segment, providing utility-scale solar technology across global energy markets.
Its primary customers include large-scale solar project developers, independent power producers, regulated utilities, and commercial and industrial corporate power purchasers. The vast majority of operations and revenues are concentrated in the United States, representing $4,994,679,000 of its $5,219,376,000 total revenue in FY2025.
§2 Cas baissierEN
A compounded downside stress scenario models an operating margin drop to 25.0%, a deceleration in multi-year revenue growth below 5.0%, and a terminal multiple contraction to 9.6x P/E. Under this joint pressure, operating cash flows would compress while capital expenditures on active manufacturing facilities in Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina continue. Even under such severe compression, First Solar's $2,803,514,000 in cash and equivalents against total debt of $194,010,000 provides a substantial net cash buffer that prevents liquidity distress or forced equity dilution.
Operating margin contracts below 25.0% due to freight and glass inflation.4
Comment cette thèse peut échouer
Severe tariff circumvention by Southeast Asian crystalline manufacturers combined with domestic freight inflation collapses operating margins
Severe tariff circumvention by Southeast Asian crystalline manufacturers combined with domestic freight inflation collapses operating margins below 25.0%.4
FV impact
-1.8%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
Les cinq évolutions qui affaibliraient notre thèse d’investissement.
Severe tariff circumvention and freight inflation eroding operating profitability.
Actuel :30.59% in FY2025
Alerte siBelow 25.0%
02
Domestic Content Backlog Share
Developers canceling domestic contracts due to financing constraints or seeking foreign modules.
§3 Avantage concurrentielEN
Narrow
First Solar maintains a Narrow economic moat grounded in proprietary cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film manufacturing technology and structural domestic supply chain positioning. Unlike standard crystalline silicon module producers exposed to Chinese supply chains and volatile polysilicon costs, First Solar transforms raw glass sheets into completed photovoltaic modules on automated continuous production lines in just hours.
The company's commercial insulation is reinforced by the U.S. regulatory architecture. Approximately 41 GW of First Solar's 45 GW contracted backlog explicitly meets domestic content criteria, qualifying project developers for lucrative federal tax credit adders. These contractual commitments provide multi-year revenue visibility and insulate pricing from global module dumping, underpinning an ROIC of 16.58% that exceeds the firm's 10.80% cost of capital.
Profit économique
First Solar generated a latest ROIC of 16.58%, comfortably exceeding its computed WACC of 10.80%. This positive economic spread of 5.78 percentage points confirms sustainable economic profit creation driven by domestic pricing premiums and disciplined asset utilization.2
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01cost_advantage — First Solar operates fully integrated continuous-line CdTe thin-film manufacturing facilities that bypass polysilicon and ingot-wafer supply chain bottlenecks, yielding an industry-leading conversion cost per watt.Wide
02intangible_assets — Proprietary CdTe semiconductor intellectual property and CuRe conversion efficiency enhancements prevent direct replication by crystalline silicon peers, while domestic facility certification allows customers to claim IRA Section 45X and domestic content bonus depreciation.Wide
Menaces connues pour l'avantage
Menace
Gravité
Calendrier
Atténuation
Circumvention of trade tariffs by Southeast Asian crystalline silicon manufacturers leading to domestic price undercut.
high
12-24 months
Accelerating CuRe efficiency upgrades to lower cost per watt and lobbying for rigorous domestic enforcement under Section 232 and Section 301.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($269.84). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $969.0M after modeled reinvestment of $521.8M, with terminal value at 71.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Consensus revenue expands at a 17.3% rate in FY2027 as new domestic facilities ramp.1
Operating margin stabilizes near 31.0%-34.0% supported by Section 45X credits and CuRe conversion efficiency.4
Exit valuation multiple normalizes near historical mid-cycle levels across the cycle.
In the Base scenario, First Solar delivers on its contracted backlog, converting 41 GW of domestic content orders at contracted ASPs. Operating margins remain resilient above 31.0% despite modest freight friction, driving EPS toward $23.16 by FY2027. Under these conditions, the shares compound toward $269.84, delivering an estimated return of 51.7% with a 55.0% probability weighting. Disconfirmation would occur if quarterly shipments fail to meet the 3.9 to 4.5 GW guidance range or if domestic backlog share declines materially from contracted levels.1,4
Maintain Strong Buy; Maintain existing positioning and monitor shipment cadence against the contracted backlog without adding incremental speculative capital.
Déclencheur: Quarterly shipments exceeding the high end of volume guidance alongside operating margin expanding above target baseline levels.
A beat driven by higher domestic module deliveries and gross margin expansion confirms operational execution and verifies that CuRe efficiency gains are offsetting freight headwinds.
Conforme
Maintain Strong Buy; Hold the position steady and track the conversion of backlog contracts into billable deliveries.
Performance in line with guidance confirms stable factory utilization in Alabama and Ohio and reaffirms full-year cash flow projections.
Manqué
Downgrade the rating; Re-examine counterparty credit security, backlog cancellation rates, and reassess position weight toward a lower allocation tier.
Déclencheur: Quarterly operating margin contracting significantly below guided run-rates or net backlog bookings turning negative.
A quarterly shortfall caused by contract de-commitments or gross margin deterioration below key operational thresholds would signal erosion in domestic pricing power.
Qualité des résultats
Earnings quality is anchored by strong operating cash generation, with FY2025 operating cash flow of $2,057,105,000 exceeding GAAP net income of $1,528,229,000. Over 95% of revenues are domestically sourced, and contracted bookings require liquid security deposits from counterparties, keeping revenue quality high and bad-debt risk low.4,7,8
Dynamique des estimations
Consensus earnings estimates have remained steady following Q2 2026 earnings, with FY2026 consensus EPS at $17.47 and FY2027 consensus EPS at $23.16. Management reaffirmed full-year operational targets despite incorporating $60M to $80M in net tariff adjustments.1,4
Métriques à surveiller avant publication
01
Métrique:
Domestic Content Backlog Share
ActuelApproximately 41 GW of the 45 GW backlog specifies domestic content criteria.
Pourquoi c'est important
Demonstrates whether customers remain committed to domestic-content qualified modules that preserve pricing power and ensure factory asset utilization.
02
Métrique:
Southeast Asian Facility Drag
Actuel$30M per quarter in factory drag, roughly half non-cash.
Pourquoi c'est important
Reduces overall corporate gross margin and indicates when management will resolve international manufacturing allocation.
Operating cash generation remains robust, producing $2,057,105,000 in FY2025 operating cash flow and $1,187,230,000 in free cash flow after deducting $869,875,000 in expansionary capex. Cash conversion is underpinned by high operating margins of 30.59% and mandatory security deposits posted by project counterparties.4,6,7
Allocation du capital
Capital allocation is centered on organic domestic factory capacity expansion funded entirely through internal cash flows. In FY2025, First Solar allocated $869,875,000 to while maintaining $2,803,514,000 in cash and equivalents and carrying just $194,010,000 in total debt. The company avoids shareholder and common dividends, reinvesting fully to capture multi-year domestic manufacturing demand.
ROIC stands at 16.58%, reflecting high capital productivity across operating manufacturing lines. As new domestic capacity in Alabama and South Carolina reaches full utilization, ROIC is poised to improve further toward 20% before stabilizing in steady state.
ROIC of 16.58% generates a substantial 5.78 percentage point spread over the computed WACC of 10.80%, demonstrating significant economic value creation.
Cash and equivalents totaled $2,803,514,000 at FY2025 year-end against $194,010,000 in debt.
Over $2.6B in net cash liquidity shields the business from capital market volatility and funds domestic facility buildouts without leverage.
Exceptional Operating Profitability Insulated by Domestic Content Eligibility
FY2025 operating income of $1,596,864,000 on of $5,219,376,000 yielded a 30.59% .
Dernier chiffre d’affaires5,2 Md $USTCAC du chiffre d’affaires +6,7 %
Marge opérationnelle30,6 %10 périodes fiscales
Dernier flux de trésorerie disponible1,2 Md $USFY2025
Trésorerie nette2,4 Md $USFY2025
Décomposition du compte de résultatComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.30 juin 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Chiffre d'affaires1,1 Md $USCoût des ventes−451,2 M $USMarge brute605 M $USCharges d’exploitation−154,6 M $USRésultat d'exploitation450,4 M $USÉléments hors exploitation et impôts−27,8 M $USRésultat net422,6 M $US
Données de l’historique financier
Chiffre d'affaires
1 056 193 000 $US
Coût des ventes
451 189 000 $US
Marge brute
605 004 000 $US
Charges d’exploitation
154 618 000 $US
Résultat d'exploitation
450 386 000 $US
Éléments hors exploitation et impôts
-27 817 000 $US
Résultat net
422 569 000 $US
Aperçu du bilanComment les actifs publiés sont détenus et financés pour la période sélectionnée.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composition des actifsFinancé par
Total de l’actif13,3 Md $USTrésorerie2,8 Md $USActifs courants6 Md $USTotal du passif3,8 Md $USPassifs courants2,3 Md $USCapitaux propres9,5 Md $US
Données de ventilation du bilan
Total de l’actif
13 321 310 000 $US
Trésorerie
2 803 514 000 $US
Actifs courants
6 028 832 000 $US
Total du passif
3 783 317 000 $US
Passifs courants
2 254 102 000 $US
Capitaux propres
9 537 993 000 $US
Passerelle des flux de trésorerieComment le flux de trésorerie d’exploitation est devenu du flux de trésorerie disponible en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Rapprochement des flux d’exploitation
Résultat net1,5 Md $USDotations aux amortissements+529,2 M $USRémunération en actions+19,2 M $USAutres ajustements opérationnels−19,6 M $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation2,1 Md $US
Rapprochement de la trésorerie d’ouverture à la clôture
Trésorerie d’ouverture1,6 Md $USFlux de trésorerie d'exploitation+2,1 Md $USFlux d’investissement−765,2 M $USFlux de financement−119,2 M $USEffet de change+3,1 M $USTrésorerie de clôture2,8 Md $US
2,1 Md $US − 869,9 M $USFlux de trésorerie disponible 1,2 Md $US
Données de la passerelle des flux de trésorerie
Résultat net
1 528 229 000 $US
Entrées d’exploitation
2 076 668 000 $US
Dotations aux amortissements
529 216 000 $US
Rémunération en actions
19 223 000 $US
Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation
2 057 105 000 $US
Sorties d’exploitation
19 563 000 $US
Trésorerie disponible
3 698 427 000 $US
Trésorerie d’ouverture
1 638 223 000 $US
Effet de change
3 099 000 $US
Sorties d’investissement
765 168 000 $US
Sorties de financement
119 228 000 $US
Remboursement net de dette
102 893 000 $US
Autres activités de financement
16 335 000 $US
Trésorerie de clôture
2 814 031 000 $US
Flux d’investissement
-765 168 000 $US
Flux de financement
-119 228 000 $US
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart du chiffre d’affaires total pour 2025-12-31.
5,2 Md $USChiffre d’affaires total
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographiquePart
United States5 Md $US95,7 %+27,9 % sur un an
India195,6 M $US3,7 %−3 % sur un an
Allotherforeigncountries22,8 M $US0,4 %−65,1 % sur un an
France6,3 M $US0,1 %−81,7 % sur un an
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
Données de répartition du chiffre d’affaires: Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique
Chiffre d'affaires
Part
sur un an
United States
5 Md $US
95,7 %
27,9 %
India
195,6 M $US
3,7 %
-3 %
Allotherforeigncountries
22,8 M $US
0,4 %
-65,1 %
France
6,3 M $US
0,1 %
-81,7 %
Chiffre d’affaires et résultatsComment la taille de l’activité se traduit en bénéfice publié.
Trésorerie et detteLiquidités disponibles face à l’endettement total.
Génération de trésorerieFlux de trésorerie d’exploitation comparé au flux de trésorerie disponible.
RentabilitéÉvolution des marges brute, opérationnelle et nette.
Données financières ponctuelles utilisées dans l’analyse du 2026-10-09.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) trades at 8.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.4x compares with a peer median of 19.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Enphase Energy Inc., Monolithic Power Systems Inc., Skyworks Solutions Inc. and PTC Inc., as of 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-09.
§10 Secteur et cycleEN
Phase du cycle
Expansion
The solar and technology hardware benchmark exhibits an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.09 and capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.92. In contrast, First Solar's FY2025 capex of $869,875,000 represented 16.67% of its $5,219,376,000 revenue and 1.64x its $529,216,000 depreciation, highlighting an aggressive domestic factory buildout cycle.7
Cycle haussier
The bull cycle is propelled by rising electricity demand from hyperscale artificial intelligence data centers, utility decarbonization mandates, and supportive federal manufacturing policies. Under these conditions, demand for domestic-content eligible modules outpaces supply, allowing Tier-1 domestic producers to command healthy pricing premiums.
Cycle baissier
A cyclical downturn in utility-scale solar could be triggered by severe crystalline module circumvention via third-party Asian countries, interconnection queue grid bottlenecks, or high interest rates curbing project financing. In such a scenario, developer counterparties delay off-take agreements, causing industry book-to-bill ratios to drop.
Tendances séculaires
Tendance
Impact
Note
AI Data Center Power Demand Acceleration
positive
Hyperscale cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure operators are driving unprecedented long-term power purchase agreements for clean energy.
Reshoring and Clean Energy Industrial Policy
positive
U.S. industrial policy favors localized manufacturing through Section 45X credits and domestic content bonus depreciation.
Global Solar Trade Friction and Tariff Regimes
neutral
Import tariffs under Section 301 and Section 201 aim to protect domestic producers but require ongoing trade scrutiny to curb circumvention.
Positionnement
First Solar is uniquely positioned as the preeminent domestic solar manufacturer in the United States, with over 95% of FY2025 sales generated domestically. Its proprietary CdTe continuous manufacturing bypasses crystalline polysilicon supply disruptions, and its multi-year 45 GW backlog insulates it from spot module price cyclicality.4,8
§11 Gestion de positionEN
Taille de position
5-7%
High conviction is warranted by a 45 GW contracted backlog, pristine net cash balance sheet with over $2.6B in net liquidity, and structural profitability supported by IRA domestic manufacturing incentives.2,4,7
Risque
Position risk is managed through portfolio weighting discipline (capped at 7%), regular monitoring of quarterly trade policy determinations, and tracking liquid security deposits on new module orders to insulate against utility counterparty delays.
Tranches d'entrée
Niveau
Action
Pourquoi
At report-date levels around $175-$180
Initiate 60% of target allocation
The shares trade at an attractive forward P/E multiple of 8.35x offering 51.75% implied upside to Fair value.
On any temporary pullbacks toward the 52-week low ($168.60-$172.00)
Add remaining 40% of target allocation
Provides an exceptional margin of safety anchored by $2.6B in net cash and strong domestic contract protection.
Contracted backlog of 45 GW and projected EPS growth from $14.21 in FY2025 to $23.16 in FY2027 offer powerful secular growth driven by data center power demand.1,4,7
Income / Total Return Investor
Hold
While First Solar does not pay a common dividend, total enterprise value compounding and strong cash flow generation support substantial long-term capital appreciation.
§14 Recommandation finaleEN
Action
Achat fort
First Solar represents a premier growth-infrastructure investment, pairing deep technological insulation in thin-film solar modules with a fully booked 45 GW domestic manufacturing pipeline. The company generates robust operating cash flow and holds over $2.6B in net cash liquidity, shielding investors from capital cycle risks.2,4,7
With shares trading at a modest 8.35x forward P/E multiple against projected consensus EPS growth of $23.16 in FY2027, the risk-reward profile is asymmetric with 51.75% upside to the house Fair value of 269.84.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 char
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the Bear scenario, regulatory circumvention by crystalline silicon peers intensifies competition, forcing First Solar to discount module prices while persistent domestic freight costs from Ohio to the West Coast compress operating margins below guided thresholds. Concurrently, utility grid interconnection bottlenecks delay project execution, causing developer counterparties to pause commitments. Investors would recognize this outcome through contracting gross margins and net bookings stagnating across successive quarters.
Counterparty financing constraints and utility interconnection delays trigger backlog de-commitments and volume cancellations
Strict enforcement of cash or liquid collateral leads developer counterparties to pause bookings, while grid interconnection delays drag 5-year revenue CAGR below 5.0%.4
FV impact
-6.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Post-2030 IRA Section 45X legislative dilution and terminal multiple de-rating across clean tech hardware
Legislative dilution or accelerated phase-down of IRA Section 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credits prompts hardware multiple contraction, de-rating forward valuation below 9.6x P/E.3,4
FV impact
-6.1%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Actuel :
91.1% (41 GW of 45 GW backlog)
Alerte siBelow 75.0%
03
Southeast Asian Facility Underutilization Drag
Persistent trade disputes stranding Southeast Asian module capacity permanently without alternative export avenues.
Actuel :$30M per quarter ($120M annualized)
Alerte siQuarterly drag exceeding $40M or asset impairment over $200M
04
Net Annual Bookings Cadence
Counterparty liquidity constraints causing developers to pause bookings or cancel off-take agreements.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (47,51 $US) plus discounted terminal value (119 $US) minus signed per current share (-21,93 $US) equals the 188 $US lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the Bull scenario, surging artificial intelligence data center electricity demand sparks an aggressive wave of direct utility procurement. Simultaneously, rigorous trade policy enforcement halts Southeast Asian crystalline module dumping, enabling First Solar to capture significant pricing premiums on domestic Series 7 production. Earnings exceed consensus expectations, driving the shares toward $333.85 for an implied return of 87.7% with a 20.0% probability. Disconfirmation would arise if developer bookings stall or if trade exemptions are granted to foreign crystalline manufacturers.4
03
Métrique:
Freight and Logistics Expense
ActuelGuidance reflects $60M to $80M net tariff impact alongside transcontinental delivery friction.
Pourquoi c'est important
Directly increases period cost of goods sold and reveals whether domestic manufacturing geographical placement creates persistent cost friction.
04
Métrique:
CuRe Module Conversion Efficiency
ActuelCuRe efficiency program ramping to reduce conversion cost per watt.
Pourquoi c'est important
Offsets raw material input inflation and widens cost-per-watt advantage over competing silicon technologies.
05
Métrique:
Counterparty Collateral Compliance
ActuelManagement enforcing cash or liquid collateral security against new bookings.
Pourquoi c'est important
Ensures backlog durability and prevents project defaults caused by utility grid delays or high interest rates.
