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Enterprise artificial intelligence complexity accelerates demand for Gartner's objective vendor rankings, pushing Insights subscription contract value growth above 7%.
Insights subscription revenue growth contracting below negative 2.0% year over year in fiscal 2026.
We issue a Buy rating on Gartner, as its dominant position in syndicated IT research provides durable pricing power and double-digit earnings growth potential.
Our Buy recommendation means Gartner offers attractive return potential for long-term investors. Investors can accumulate shares while they trade below the company's estimated business worth.
As of September 18, 2026, Gartner was priced at $185.78. This price offers 15.04% upside to our Fair value of $213.73. Under favorable business conditions, the shares could reach a Potential value of $255.04.4
The primary risk to our view is an extended freeze in corporate technology budgets. If chief information officers cancel research seats, subscription could drop below negative 2%. Because analyst payroll is largely fixed, lower billings would squeeze and reduce cash generated for share repurchases.
The core engine of value creation is Gartner's subscription Insights segment, which generates 78.1% of revenue. Enterprise leaders rely on proprietary vendor rankings for purchasing decisions, creating high renewal rates and strong cash flow. Rebounding contract growth in 2027 should expand operating profit and lift value per share toward Fair value.157
Gartner's Insights research segment generates 78.1% of company sales through recurring enterprise subscriptions. These sticky contracts produced $1,175.22M of free cash flow in 2025.57
Analyst projections anticipate sales expanding by 4.08% in 2027 with diluted earnings rising to $16.36 per share. Active share repurchases will further enhance earnings growth for equity holders.16
Enterprise decision makers embed Gartner research frameworks into corporate procurement workflows, sustaining high renewal predictability on multi-year contracts.7
We rate Gartner a Buy because mission-critical research subscriptions provide high recurring cash flow that supports double-digit earnings growth as corporate IT spending rebounds.7
Conferences provides executives and teams across an organization the opportunity to learn, share and network. From its Gartner Symposium/Xpo series, to industry-leading conferences focused on specific business roles and topics, to peer-driven sessions, its offerings enable attendees to experience the best of Gartner insights and guidance. The Company records deferred commissions upon the recognition of commission liabilities, which is generally aligned with the obtaining of a customer contract or the commencement of subsequent terms in the case of multi-year contracts.
The deferred amount is amortized over a period that aligns with the transfer to the customer of the services to which the commissions relate. Note 9 — Revenue and Related Matters provides additional information regarding deferred commissions and the amortization of such costs.
Under an operational stress test combining a 2.0% decline in Insights subscription renewals with an elevated cost of capital rising 200 bps to 9.84%, fixed research payroll costs compress operating margins to 14.0%. With total debt of $3,618.15M and current liabilities of $4,072.09M exceeding cash of $1,722.52M, free cash flow conversion slows and share repurchases cease.
In the downside path, prolonged corporate IT budget freezes prompt enterprise CIOs to downsize syndicated research seats. For this path to materialize, subscription renewals must contract and conference attendance must decline across fiscal periods. The path would be disconfirmed if enterprise inquiry volumes re-accelerate within the next twelve months.
A sustained enterprise IT budget freeze forces corporate clients to downsize subscription seats, driving Insights contract growth below -2% year over year within 12 months.
Les cinq évolutions qui affaibliraient notre thèse d’investissement.
Negative contract renewals reveal that corporate clients are canceling research seats under budget pressure. Shrinking subscription volume undermines the fixed-cost research leverage model, compressing operating margins and lowering sustainable free cash flow generation across the business.
Actuel :$5,072.57M in FY2025
Alerte si
Gartner operates a wide-moat research and advisory franchise anchored in its subscription-based Insights segment ($5,072.57M in FY2025). Enterprise leaders embed Gartner research into annual procurement budgets, creating high switching costs and predictable subscription renewals.
Structural insulation is demonstrated by Gartner's 15.79% operating margin and 68.77% gross margin, which substantially outperform commoditized IT distribution peers CDW (7.35% operating margin) and LDOS (11.72% operating margin).
Gartner generates substantial economic profit as return on invested capital of 24.87% exceeds its cost of capital, comprising a moderate cost of equity of 8.8627% and a weighted average cost of capital of 7.8353%.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($213.73). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $874.2M after modeled capex of $115.1M, with terminal value at 63.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal path assumes Gartner navigates near-term budget elongation before returning to steady mid-single-digit revenue growth and per-share compounding, supporting a path toward $213.73. To confirm this case, contract retention must stabilize over the next twelve to eighteen months. The scenario would be disconfirmed if subscription renewals fail to rebound by FY2027.1
Accelerating subscription contract value confirms renewed enterprise demand, expanding operating leverage toward $255.04.
Results tracking the baseline schedule support valuation progress toward $213.73 with 15.0% upside.
Prolonged contract budget pauses weaken research operating leverage and delay fair value realization.
Gartner displays robust earnings quality characterized by operating cash generation exceeding net income and steady margin durability across subscription research. A divergence where reported net profit expands while operating cash collections decelerate would reveal rising uncollected client receivables and signal weakening contract quality.6
In FY2025, Gartner generated $1.77 of operating cash flow for every $1.00 of reported net profit, reflecting $1,290.37M in operating cash flow against $729.23M in net income. Gartner operates an asset-light cash engine, generating $1,175.22M in free cash flow in FY2025. Subscription billings collected in advance support working capital, allowing high conversion of operating profit into distributable cash.56
Management prioritizes share repurchases over dividends, spending $1,991.15M on buybacks in FY2025 to reduce diluted share count from 79.68M in FY2023 to 75.61M in FY2025. Capital spending remains low at $115.14M (1.77% of revenue), but total debt of $3,618.15M and current liabilities of $4,072.09M exceeding cash of $1,722.52M constrain aggressive repurchase acceleration.
The large spread between return on capital and financing costs reflects the structural pricing power of syndicated research subscriptions, ensuring durable economic value creation even during periods of modest top-line deceleration.
Gartner's return on invested capital of 24.87% substantially exceeds its weighted average cost of capital of 7.8353%.
Operating cash flow of $1,290.37M easily funded low capex of $115.14M to deliver $1,175.22M in FCF in FY2025.
Low reinvestment requirements permit significant capital return while sustaining core syndicated research production.
| Chiffre d'affaires | 6 497 226 000 $US |
|---|---|
| Coût des ventes | 2 029 010 000 $US |
| Marge brute | 4 468 216 000 $US |
| Charges d’exploitation | 3 442 505 000 $US |
| Résultat d'exploitation | 1 025 711 000 $US |
| Éléments hors exploitation et impôts | -296 480 000 $US |
| Résultat net | 729 231 000 $US |
| Total de l’actif | 8 085 400 000 $US |
|---|---|
| Trésorerie | 1 722 521 000 $US |
| Actifs courants | 4 066 337 000 $US |
| Total du passif | 7 765 492 000 $US |
| Passifs courants | 4 072 092 000 $US |
| Capitaux propres | 319 908 000 $US |
| Résultat net | 729 231 000 $US |
|---|---|
| Entrées d’exploitation | 1 290 365 000 $US |
| Dotations aux amortissements | 200 309 000 $US |
| Rémunération en actions | 155 877 000 $US |
| Autres ajustements opérationnels | 204 948 000 $US |
| Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation | 1 290 365 000 $US |
| Trésorerie disponible | 3 277 381 000 $US |
| Trésorerie d’ouverture | 1 933 147 000 $US |
| Effet de change | 53 869 000 $US |
| Sorties d’investissement | 115 142 000 $US |
| Capex | 115 142 000 $US |
| Sorties de financement | 1 439 718 000 $US |
| Trésorerie de clôture | 1 722 521 000 $US |
| Flux d’investissement | -115 142 000 $US |
| Flux de financement | -1 439 718 000 $US |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
| Chiffre d’affaires par secteur opérationnel | Chiffre d'affaires | Part | sur un an |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insights | 5,1 Md $US | 78,1 % | 5 % |
| Conferences | 644,7 M $US | 9,9 % | 10,5 % |
| Consulting | 552,5 M $US | 8,5 % | -1,1 % |
| Other Reportable | 227,4 M $US | 3,5 % | -23,3 % |
Source: SEC EDGAR · Déposé le 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
| Chiffre d’affaires par zone géographique | Chiffre d'affaires | Part | sur un an |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States And Canada | 4 Md $US | 62,1 % | 0,4 % |
| Europe Middle East Africa | 1,7 Md $US | 26,1 % | 11,6 % |
| Other International | 770,9 M $US | 11,9 % | 5,3 % |
Données financières ponctuelles utilisées dans l’analyse du 2026-09-20.
| Période | Chiffre d'affaires | EBITDA | Résultat net | Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Capex | Dotations aux amortissements | Rémunération en actions | Rachats d’actions | Dividendes versés | Émission nette de dette | Flux d’investissement | Flux de financement | Trésorerie d’ouverture | Trésorerie de clôture | Trésorerie et placements | Dette totale | Marge opérationnelle | ROIC | WACC | Écart ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 2,4 Md $US | 378 M $US | 193,6 M $US | 365,6 M $US | 315,8 M $US | 49,9 M $US | 62 M $US | 46,7 M $US | 59 M $US | 0 $US | — | -98,1 M $US | -174,7 M $US | — | 499,4 M $US | 474,2 M $US | 694,4 M $US | 12,5 % | — | 5,4 % | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 3,3 Md $US | 240,3 M $US | 3,3 M $US | 254,5 M $US | 143,8 M $US | 110,8 M $US | 240,2 M $US | 78,9 M $US | 41,3 M $US | 0 $US | — | -2,8 Md $US | 2,5 Md $US | 499,4 M $US | 567,1 M $US | 538,9 M $US | 3,3 Md $US | -0,2 % | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 4 Md $US | 563,5 M $US | 122,5 M $US | 471,2 M $US | 344,3 M $US | 126,9 M $US | 255,6 M $US | 66,2 M $US | 260,8 M $US | — | — | 384,1 M $US | -1,3 Md $US | 567,1 M $US | 158,7 M $US | 156,4 M $US | 2,3 Md $US | 6,5 % | — | 6,2 % | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 4,2 Md $US | 590,3 M $US | 233,3 M $US | 565,4 M $US | 416,4 M $US | 149 M $US | 211,8 M $US | 69 M $US | 199 M $US | 17,6 M $US | — | -160,9 M $US | -286 M $US | 158,7 M $US | 280,8 M $US | 280,8 M $US | 3,1 Md $US | 8,7 % | — | 5,7 % | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 4,1 Md $US | 660,8 M $US | 266,7 M $US | 903,3 M $US | 819,4 M $US | 83,9 M $US | 219 M $US | 62,5 M $US | 176,3 M $US | 18,1 M $US | — | -83,9 M $US | -416,2 M $US | 280,8 M $US | 712,6 M $US | 712,6 M $US | 2,8 Md $US | 12,0 % | — | 5,5 % | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 4,7 Md $US | 1,3 Md $US | 793,6 M $US | 1,3 Md $US | 1,3 Md $US | 59,8 M $US | 212,4 M $US | 98,6 M $US | 1,7 Md $US | 18,2 M $US | — | -80,5 M $US | -1,2 Md $US | 712,6 M $US | 760,6 M $US | 756,5 M $US | 3,3 Md $US | 19,3 % | — | 6,4 % | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 5,5 Md $US | 1,3 Md $US | 807,8 M $US | 1,1 Md $US | 993,4 M $US | 108,1 M $US | 191,9 M $US | 90,6 M $US | 1 Md $US | 22,2 M $US | -5,9 M $US | -117,6 M $US | -1 Md $US | 760,6 M $US | 698,6 M $US | 704,3 M $US | 3,2 Md $US | 20,1 % | — | 8,5 % | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 5,9 Md $US | 1,5 Md $US | 882,5 M $US | 1,2 Md $US | 1,1 Md $US | 103,1 M $US | 191,1 M $US | 129,8 M $US | 606,2 M $US | 588,9 M $US | -7,8 M $US | 54,2 M $US | -588,9 M $US | 698,6 M $US | 1,3 Md $US | 1,3 Md $US | 3,1 Md $US | 20,9 % | — | 8,5 % | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 6,3 Md $US | 1,7 Md $US | 1,3 Md $US | 1,5 Md $US | 1,4 Md $US | 101,7 M $US | 202,3 M $US | 154,8 M $US | 735,4 M $US | — | 0 $US | -103,7 M $US | -710,1 M $US | 1,3 Md $US | 1,9 Md $US | 1,9 Md $US | 2,9 Md $US | 18,4 % | — | 9,1 % | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 6,5 Md $US | 1,2 Md $US | 729,2 M $US | 1,3 Md $US | 1,2 Md $US | 115,1 M $US | 200,3 M $US | 155,9 M $US | 2 Md $US | — | 525,5 M $US | -115,1 M $US | -1,4 Md $US | 1,9 Md $US | 1,7 Md $US | 1,7 Md $US | 3,6 Md $US | 15,8 % | — | 7,7 % | — |
Gartner Inc. (IT) trades at 11.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.8x compares with a peer median of 12.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: GoDaddy Inc., Jack Henry & Associates Inc., Leidos Holdings Inc. and CDW Corporation, as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.9% and capex-to-depreciation is 0.35. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.
Enterprise software spending rebounds as generative artificial intelligence deployments require objective vendor evaluations, lifting Insights subscription growth above 7%.
Prolonged corporate budget scrutiny prompts chief information officers to freeze advisory contracts and reduce vendor evaluation tiers, depressing industry contract value growth.
Gartner maintains dominant industry positioning through its syndicated Magic Quadrant franchise, generating a 15.79% operating margin that exceeds the 12.50% industry operating margin benchmark.6
Allocate a moderate 3-5% target weighting reflecting Gartner's wide-moat subscription research economics balanced against near-term IT budget elongation.7
Maintain strict sizing limits and adhere to quarterly contract value checkpoints to guard against prolonged enterprise IT spending contractions.
Gartner trades at a 15.04% discount to Fair value, offering a favorable margin of safety for a wide-moat compounder generating $1,175.22M in free cash flow.5
Enterprise software and AI evaluation complexity provide secular tailwinds that will re-accelerate Insights subscription growth toward 4.08% in 2027 and support double-digit earnings compounding.1
Management directs cash flow entirely toward share repurchases ($1,991.15M in 2025) rather than paying cash dividends, making the stock unsuitable for investors seeking current income.6
We recommend purchasing shares of Gartner, which traded at $185.78 on the report date, representing 15.04% upside to our Fair value of $213.73.4
The company's wide economic moat in syndicated IT research provides robust pricing power, protecting operating cash flow even during temporary periods of enterprise budget elongation.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Persistently elevated interest rates or credit spread widening elevate the cost of capital above 9.84% over an 18-month horizon, increasing borrowing costs on $3,618.15M of total debt.4
Valuation multiples de-rate toward IT service peer levels if revenue growth stagnates, pushing the terminal multiple below 17.2x within 24 months.
Margin contraction beyond fixed cost baselines demonstrates an inability to flex analyst compensation against softening enterprise demand. Decreased operating profitability erodes cash flow returns on invested capital and removes structural margin insulation relative to broader IT services peers.
Actuel :15.79% in FY2025
Alerte siDecline below 12.0% for any trailing twelve months
Losing international revenue share indicates that foreign enterprise expansion is failing to diversify the client base outside North America. Heightened domestic concentration leaves top-line growth vulnerable to regional corporate spending cutbacks and currency headwinds.
Actuel :37.93% in FY2025
Alerte siDrop below 32.0% of total revenue in FY2027
A widening liquidity deficit constrains capital allocation flexibility when operating cash flow slows. Higher debt service demands force management to curtail discretionary share repurchases, diluting per-share earnings compounding and increasing vulnerability to refinancing rate spikes.
Actuel :Current liabilities of $4,072.09M versus cash of $1,722.52M at year-end FY2025
Alerte siCash balance falling below $1,000.0M while total debt exceeds $3,500.0M
Deteriorating gross profitability indicates enterprise customers are migrating toward lower-cost automated research alternatives or demanding price concessions. Loss of pricing power breaks syndicated research production scalability and drives valuations toward commoditized IT services peers.
Actuel :68.77% in FY2025
Alerte siFalling below 64.0% in any reported fiscal year
| medium |
| 12-18 months |
| Multi-year subscription agreements and mission-critical vendor procurement guidance protect core account retention during corporate budget reviews.7 |
Under the moderate discount rate, 95,84 $US comes from forecast-period earnings and 131 $US from the long-term value, totaling 227 $US.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 63.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The upside path toward $255.04 requires enterprise software procurement complexity to accelerate corporate inquiry volume, driving subscription revenue growth above historical rates. This trajectory would be confirmed by expanding contract value and operating margin expansion over the next eighteen months, while being disconfirmed if enterprise software budgets remain flat.1
Maintaining sufficient liquidity relative to upcoming debt commitments prevents borrowing costs from rising and preserves capital for share repurchases.4
| $6.88B |
| $7.09B |
| $7.30B |
| Operating income | $1.06B | $1.10B | $1.14B | $1.17B | $1.20B |
| NOPAT | $814.74M | $847.98M | $873.42M | $899.63M | $926.62M |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $814.74M | $847.98M | $873.42M | $899.63M | $926.62M |
| Revenue growth | -1.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Tax rate | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Current liabilities of $4,072.09M and total debt of $3,618.15M compare to cash of $1,722.52M at year-end FY2025.
While deferred subscription revenue drives current liabilities, refinancing elevated debt balances in a higher interest rate environment limits discretionary buyback pacing.
| Marge |
|---|
| IT | Gartner Inc. | $11.7B | 11.8x | 1.8x | 9.8x | 113.6% | — |
| GDDY | GoDaddy Inc. | $12.3B | 8.8x | 2.4x | 12.0x | 398.2% | 24.7% |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates Inc. | $10.9B | 19.7x | 4.3x | 15.6x | 24.0% | 22.5% |
| LDOS | Leidos Holdings Inc. | $16.1B | 10.0x | 0.9x | 9.2x | 27.8% | 11.7% |
| CDW | CDW Corporation | $18.3B | 12.1x | 0.8x | 12.1x | 44.0% | 7.3% |
| Decline below 12.0% in any reported fiscal quarter |
| Review cost structure flexibility and trim position by 30% if operating margin breaches 12.0%.6 |
| International revenue contribution | Falling below 32.0% of consolidated revenues | Re-evaluate geographic growth runway and restrict target sizing to 3% if international share drops below 32.0%.7 |
