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MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $54.6, high $86.0, with mid-point at $70.1.
Stock analysis

MDLZ fair value $55–$86

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-20Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cours
$61.29
▲ +8.82 (+14.39%)
Juste valeur
$70
$55–$86
Notation
Acheter
confidence 82/100
Potentiel de hausse
+14.4%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$59.59
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$78.7B
P/E fwd 18.1
Repli en anglaisFR
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $86.
  • Implied upside of 14.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
+12.6%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$61.29Price
Low $54.61
Mid $70.11
High $86.01

MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
    Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
  • Unmatched global distribution scale
    Unmatched global distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.

§2 Cas baissier

Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable.. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion

· Medium

Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.

FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Private Label Defection

· Medium

Global consumers permanently shift to generic snacking alternatives, causing an unrecoverable impairment to organic volume growth and brand equity.

FV impact
-22% to intrinsic value
Trigger
24 to 36 months

GLP-1 Demand Disruption

· Low

Widespread global adoption of appetite-suppressing pharmaceuticals permanently shrinks the total addressable market for impulse consumer snacking.

FV impact
-30% to intrinsic value
Trigger
3 to 5 years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Operating cash flow to net income conversion drops sustainably below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward 3-year organic volume growth turns strictly negative.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SG&A expenses consistently outpace organic revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio breaches 100% of free cash flow to firm.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires—$31.50B$36.02B$36.44B$38.54B+5.2%
Marge brute—$11.31B$13.76B$14.26B$10.94B-0.8%
Résultat d'exploitation—$3.80B$5.61B$6.67B$3.62B-1.2%
Résultat net—$2.72B$4.96B$4.61B$2.45B-2.5%
BPA (dilué)$3.04$1.96$3.62$3.42$1.89-11.2%
EBITDA—$4.76B$7.65B$8.07B$4.97B+1.1%
R&D——————
SG&A—$7.38B$8.00B$7.44B$7.17B-0.7%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.84×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
6.0%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

MDLZ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $61.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.1 (range $54.6–$86.0), which implies roughly 14.4% upside to the midpoint.

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