Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
NASDAQ: MDLZ · Real-Time Price · USD
$61.5
+0.24 (+0.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MDLZ rated Buy
MDLZ is rated Buy at $61.29 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $70.11, implying +14.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$70.1 / share
$54.6 – $86.0
Upside to FV
+14.4%
from $61.5
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Biggest risk
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion: Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
Recommended action
Buy
MDLZ is rated Buy at $61.29 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $70.11, implying +14.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $78.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 39.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.02 | |
| Shares out | 1.3B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.4x | |
| P/E (forward) | 18.1x | |
| Dividend | $2.00 (3.25%) | |
| Volume | 6,468,104 | |
| Beta | 0.40 | |
| Price target | $67.0 | +8.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 39.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.02
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.1x
- Market cap
- $78.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $31.50B | $36.02B | $36.44B | $38.54B | +5.2% |
| Gross profit | — | $11.31B | $13.76B | $14.26B | $10.94B | -0.8% |
| Operating income | — | $3.80B | $5.61B | $6.67B | $3.62B | -1.2% |
| Net income | — | $2.72B | $4.96B | $4.61B | $2.45B | -2.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.04 | $1.96 | $3.62 | $3.42 | $1.89 | -11.2% |
| EBITDA | — | $4.76B | $7.65B | $8.07B | $4.97B | +1.1% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $7.38B | $8.00B | $7.44B | $7.17B | -0.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $54.6
- Fair value (mid)
- $70.1
- Fair value (high)
- $86.0
- Current price
- $61.5
- Upside to mid
- +14.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $66.58 | 30% |
| FCFF DCF | $67.17 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $58.48 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $64.24 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $120 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $13.32 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $65.65 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$67.0
+8.8%
In the news
Latest news · MDLZ
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $78.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.4x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.1x
- P/S
- 2.0x
- P/B
- 3.1x
- PEG
- 2.66
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.8%
- Operating margin
- 9.8%
- ROE
- 10.2%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- ROIC
- 6.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.84
- Current ratio
- 0.54
- Quick ratio
- 0.29
Trading
- Beta
- 0.40
- Volume
- 6,468,104
- Dividend yield
- 3.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +14.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$86.01
+40.3% from spot
Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
- Pricing power fully offsets commodity inflation.
- Volume accelerates in emerging markets.
- Valuation re-rates to 22x terminal earnings.
Base60%
Price target
$70.11
+14.4% from spot
The enterprise achieves moderate but highly visible growth. A tightly constrained 18x exit multiple accounts for macro headwinds, while exceptional cash flow conversion fully sustains the heavy dividend payout structure.
- 18x terminal P/E multiple.
- Terminal growth stabilizes at 3.0%.
- Operating margins hold at ~9.5%.
Bear20%
Price target
$54.61
-10.9% from spot
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth, dropping the multiple to 15x.
- 15x terminal P/E multiple.
- Severe gross margin compression.
- Negative organic volume growth.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $70.1.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $66.6 | +8.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 25% | $67.2 | +9.1% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $58.5 | -5.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $64.2 | +4.4% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $120 | +95.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $13.3 | -78.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $65.7 | +6.7% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $70.1 | +14.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($67.17). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | $98.3 | $118 | $118 | $118 | $118 |
| 5.2% | $67.2 | $79.8 | $98.3 | $118 | $118 |
| 6.2% | $51.0 | $58.0 | $67.2 | $79.8 | $98.3 |
| 7.2% | $41.1 | $45.5 | $51.0 | $58.0 | $67.2 |
| 8.2% | $36.9 | $37.5 | $41.1 | $45.5 | $51.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.8
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.8 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 3.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Appropriate as a core anchor holding within defensive or dividend-focused equity portfolios.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$61.5
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E18.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE10.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC6.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MDLZ indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
275
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 275 of 275 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MDLZ
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MDLZ report
What is the current MDLZ stock rating?
Mondelez International, Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MDLZ analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MDLZ/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MDLZ?
The latest report frames MDLZ around $55 to $86. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MDLZ page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyMDLZ · Fair value $70.1+14.4% · Confidence 82/100