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CI trades against a final fair-value range of $382.18-$742.98, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $382, high $743, with mid-point at $561.
Stock analysis

CI CI fair value $382–$743

CI
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-12अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-12Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$289.07
▲ +272.29 (+94.20%)
उचित मूल्य
$561
$382–$743
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 83/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+94.2%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$477.16
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$76.5B
P/E fwd 8.6
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $561 with high case $743.
  • Implied upside of 94.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 83/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$561
Margin of safety
+48.5%
Confidence
83/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$289.07Price
Low $382.18
Mid $561.36
High $742.98

CI trades against a final fair-value range of $382.18-$742.98, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Evernorth scale and specialty pharmacy
    Evernorth scale and specialty pharmacy dominance
  • Vertical integration of PBM and
    Vertical integration of PBM and health benefits
  • Cycle upside
    Consolidation of specialty pharmacy and managed care services driving scale efficiencies.

§2 बेयर केस

Sweeping legislative changes target PBM spread pricing and rebates, crippling Evernorth's profitability. At the same time, sudden medical cost inflation squeezes traditional insurance margins, limiting the cash available to service Cigna's massive debt load.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

PBM Spread Pricing Ban

· High

Federal legislation permanently bans spread pricing and mandates full rebate pass-throughs across all books of business.

FV impact
Moderate to Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

Medical Cost Spike

· Medium

Unanticipated structural increase in utilization rates compresses medical loss ratios beyond historical norms.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
6-12 months

De-leveraging Failure

· Low

Inability to service acquisition-related debt due to sustained margin compression, halting share repurchases.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
24-36 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating margins sustainably compressing toward the 3.0% industry median over 4 consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Total corporate revenue actively dropping into negative YoY growth territory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned suspension of the share repurchase program.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Medical care ratio (MCR) exceeding internal targets for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key enterprise client losses within the Evernorth segment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$174.27B$180.03B$195.19B$244.38B—+8.8%
सकल लाभ——————
परिचालन आय——————
शुद्ध आय$5.37B$6.70B$5.16B$3.43B—-10.6%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)—$21.30$17.39$12.12$22.18+1.0%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$13.01B$13.17B$14.82B$14.84B—+3.3%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
3.02×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
7.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CI looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $289 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $561 (range $382–$743), which implies roughly 94.2% upside to the midpoint.

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