The Cigna Group (CI)
NYSE: CI · Real-Time Price · USD
$288
+4.03 (+1.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CI rated Strong Buy
CI is rated Strong Buy at $289.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $561.36, implying +94.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 83/100.
Fair value (mid)
$561 / share
$382 – $743
Upside to FV
+94.2%
from $288
Confidence
83/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Evernorth takes specialty pharmacy market share, PBM regulatory fears ease, and the multiple re-rates toward the 13x peer median.
Biggest risk
PBM Spread Pricing Ban
PBM Spread Pricing Ban: Federal legislation permanently bans spread pricing and mandates full rebate pass-throughs across all books of business.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
CI is rated Strong Buy at $289.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $561.36, implying +94.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 83/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $76.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 277.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 6.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $23.6 | |
| Shares out | 264.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 12.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 8.6x | |
| Dividend | $6.24 (2.17%) | |
| Volume | 1,659,359 | |
| Beta | 0.31 | |
| Price target | $344 | +19.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
The Cigna GroupCI
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 277.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 6.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $23.6
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 8.6x
- Market cap
- $76.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $174.27B | $180.03B | $195.19B | $244.38B | — | +8.8% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $5.37B | $6.70B | $5.16B | $3.43B | — | -10.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $21.30 | $17.39 | $12.12 | $22.18 | +1.0% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $13.01B | $13.17B | $14.82B | $14.84B | — | +3.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $382
- Fair value (mid)
- $561
- Fair value (high)
- $743
- Current price
- $288
- Upside to mid
- +94.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $382 | 50% |
| Owner earnings | $580 | 25% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $310 | 5% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $927 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $1414 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$344
+19.3%
In the news
Latest news · CI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $76.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 8.6x
- P/S
- 0.3x
- P/B
- 1.8x
- PEG
- 0.82
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 9.1%
- Operating margin
- 4.2%
- ROE
- 16.3%
- ROA
- 4.8%
- ROIC
- 14.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.73
- Current ratio
- 0.82
- Quick ratio
- 0.66
Trading
- Beta
- 0.31
- Volume
- 1,659,359
- Dividend yield
- 2.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +94.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$742.98
+157.0% from spot
Evernorth takes specialty pharmacy market share, PBM regulatory fears ease, and the multiple re-rates toward the 13x peer median.
- Terminal multiple expands to peer median
- Revenue growth sustains mid-single digits
Base60%
Price target
$561.36
+94.2% from spot
Robust $7B-$10B free cash flow generation persists. Forward EPS anchors valuation as the business navigates moderate regulatory changes without structural impairment.
- Forward earnings and owner earnings drive valuation
- Ke anomaly bypassed via model weight shifts
Bear20%
Price target
$382.18
+32.2% from spot
Sweeping legislative changes target PBM spread pricing, crippling Evernorth's profitability and severely limiting cash for debt service.
- PBM margins compress toward industry medians
- Multiple remains permanently depressed
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $561.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 50% | $382 | +32.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $580 | +101.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $310 | +7.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $927 | +221.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $1414 | +391.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $561 | +94.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $538 | $669 | $669 | $669 | $669 |
| 5.0% | $382 | $447 | $538 | $669 | $669 |
| 6.0% | $296 | $334 | $382 | $447 | $538 |
| 7.0% | $242 | $266 | $296 | $334 | $382 |
| 8.0% | $210 | $222 | $242 | $266 | $296 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.1
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 83/100
Target weight
Core holding suitable for mature compounder allocation.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$288
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if operating margins compress toward 3.0% for 4 consecutive quarters or if total revenue turns negative.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E8.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC14.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CI indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CI report
What is the current CI stock rating?
The Cigna Group is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CI?
The latest report frames CI around $382 to $743. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyCI · Fair value $561+94.2% · Confidence 83/100