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CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $21.3, high $52.5, with mid-point at $34.5.
Stock analysis

CSX fair value $21–$53

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-20अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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मूल्य
$46.08
▼ -11.57 (-25.11%)
उचित मूल्य
$35
$21–$53
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 82/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-25.1%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$29.33
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$85.6B
P/E fwd 21.4
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $35 with high case $53.
  • Implied downside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Turnaround.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$35
Margin of safety
-33.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$46.08Price
Low $21.30
Mid $34.51
High $52.53

CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • 20,000-mile Eastern US rail network
    20,000-mile Eastern US rail network rights-of-way
  • Network effects from 30+ intermodal
    Network effects from 30+ intermodal terminal connections
  • Cycle upside
    Sustained industrial production growth >3% and recovering intermodal demand.

§2 बेयर केस

A combined 10% volume contraction in industrial carloads paired with a 25% surge in diesel fuel prices would expand the operating ratio to ~70%. Under this scenario, mandatory capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). of $2.9B would consume nearly 100% of operating cash flowOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement., threatening capital returns and debt covenants.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Accelerated Coal Decarbonization

30%· Medium

A rapid utility pivot away from coal removes 15%+ of high-margin carload volume, causing structural deleveraging of fixed network costs and permanent margin compression.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
12-36 months

Capex Trap / Normalization Failure

40%· High

Capital intensity remains at ~20% of revenue through FY2027 as turnaround efforts fail to yield operational gains, leaving free cash flow suppressed indefinitely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
18-24 months

Regulatory Pricing Intervention

20%· Medium

The Surface Transportation Board mandates restrictive rate caps for captive shippers to fight industrial inflation, stripping the company of its core pricing power.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
24-48 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating Ratio (OR) exceeding 65% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-Revenue ratio remaining above 18% into FY2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net Debt / EBITDA ratio climbing toward 4.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Intermodal carload growth trailing trucking sector volumes by >300bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio dropping below 0.4x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$14.85B$14.66B$14.54B$14.09B-1.7%
सकल लाभ$5.72B$5.50B$5.35B$4.69B-6.4%
परिचालन आय$5.80B$5.53B$5.40B$4.72B-6.6%
शुद्ध आय$4.11B$3.67B$3.47B$2.89B-11.1%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$1.95$1.85$1.79$1.54-7.6%
EBITDA$7.59B$7.25B$7.05B$6.29B-6.1%
R&D—————
SG&A$-79.0M$-29.0M$-50.0M$-33.0M—

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.6×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
11.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

CSX margins questions

  1. CSX (CSX)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

CSX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CSX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $46.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $34.5 (range $21.3–$52.5), which implies roughly 25.1% downside to the midpoint.

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