CSX Corporation (CSX)
NASDAQ: CSX · Real-Time Price · USD
$44.8
+0.37 (+0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CSX rated Sell
CSX is rated Sell at $46.08 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $34.51, implying -25.11% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Fair value (mid)
$34.5 / share
$21.3 – $52.5
Upside to FV
-25.1%
from $44.8
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful efficiency pivot drives FCF back to $3.4B+ levels, justifying the current market premium.
Biggest risk
Accelerated Coal Decarbonization
Accelerated Coal Decarbonization: A rapid utility pivot away from coal removes 15%+ of high-margin carload volume, causing structural deleveraging of fixed network costs and permanent margin compression.
Recommended action
Sell
CSX is rated Sell at $46.08 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $34.51, implying -25.11% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $85.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 14.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 3.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.63 | |
| Shares out | 1.9B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 27.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.4x | |
| Dividend | $0.56 (1.25%) | |
| Volume | 9,501,112 | |
| Beta | 1.24 | |
| Price target | $43.0 | -4.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 14.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 3.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.63
- P/E (trailing)
- 27.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- Market cap
- $85.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $14.85B | $14.66B | $14.54B | $14.09B | -1.7% |
| Gross profit | $5.72B | $5.50B | $5.35B | $4.69B | -6.4% |
| Operating income | $5.80B | $5.53B | $5.40B | $4.72B | -6.6% |
| Net income | $4.11B | $3.67B | $3.47B | $2.89B | -11.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.95 | $1.85 | $1.79 | $1.54 | -7.6% |
| EBITDA | $7.59B | $7.25B | $7.05B | $6.29B | -6.1% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $-79.0M | $-29.0M | $-50.0M | $-33.0M | — |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $21.3
- Fair value (mid)
- $34.5
- Fair value (high)
- $52.5
- Current price
- $44.8
- Upside to mid
- -25.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $24.83 | 40% |
| Owner earnings | $50.34 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $31.59 | 30% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $21.22 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$43.0
-4.0%
In the news
Latest news · CSX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $85.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 27.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- P/S
- 5.9x
- P/B
- 6.1x
- PEG
- 1.55
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 46.8%
- Operating margin
- 35.0%
- ROE
- 23.7%
- ROA
- 7.1%
- ROIC
- 11.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.43
- Current ratio
- 0.97
- Quick ratio
- 0.77
Trading
- Beta
- 1.24
- Volume
- 9,501,112
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -35.5% expected return to fair value
Bull10%
Price target
$52.53
+14.0% from spot
Successful efficiency pivot drives FCF back to $3.4B+ levels, justifying the current market premium.
- Fast capex reduction to 8%
- OR improves below 58%
- Rapid intermodal market share gains
Base40%
Price target
$34.51
-25.1% from spot
The turnaround proceeds slowly; infrastructure moat provides a floor but valuation remains unattractive relative to cash flow.
- Slow capex normalization to 12%
- Revenue growth ~4% in Y1-Y2
- Stable 36% operating margins
Bear50%
Price target
$21.30
-53.8% from spot
Bear case ties to the low end of the final fair-value range and assumes the key risk drivers in the bear-case section persist.
- Permanent 20% capex intensity
- Operating margins below 30%
- Structural coal volume loss
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $34.5.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 40% | $24.8 | -44.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 30% | $50.3 | +12.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $31.6 | -29.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $21.2 | -52.7% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $34.5 | -25.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($34.51). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $41.2 | $45.6 | $51.1 | $58.1 | $60.4 |
| 7.2% | $34.5 | $37.6 | $41.2 | $45.6 | $51.1 |
| 8.2% | $29.7 | $31.9 | $34.5 | $37.6 | $41.2 |
| 9.2% | $26.0 | $27.7 | $29.7 | $31.9 | $34.5 |
| 10.2% | $23.2 | $24.5 | $26.0 | $27.7 | $29.7 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Maximum Underweight / Avoid
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$44.8
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Exit immediate at current $46.08 market price.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE23.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC11.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CSX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
281
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CSX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CSX report
What is the current CSX stock rating?
CSX Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CSX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CSX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CSX?
The latest report frames CSX around $21 to $53. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CSX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellCSX · Fair value $34.5-25.1% · Confidence 82/100