Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $79.8, high $166, with mid-point at $118.
Stock analysis

ESTC ESTC fair value $80–$166

ESTC
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
View archive
मूल्य
$52.25
▲ +65.96 (+126.24%)
उचित मूल्य
$118
$80–$166
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 73/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+126.2%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$100.48
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$5.4B
P/E fwd 18.4
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $118 with high case $166.
  • Implied upside of 126.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$118
Margin of safety
+55.8%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$52.25Price
Low $79.75
Mid $118.21
High $165.72

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core enterprise search and observability.
  • Growing footprint in generative AI
    Growing footprint in generative AI vector search.
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI drives massive vector database adoption. Cloud migration and IT consolidation favor platforms offering unified observability and security.

§2 बेयर केस

A severe IT spending contraction paired with aggressive discounting by native cloud providers tests Elastic's pricing power. If top-line growth decelerates below 10% before operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. kicks in, the current 8x EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple will violently compress.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Cloud Provider Commoditization

· Low

Native cloud providers bundle vector search and observability natively at zero marginal cost, destroying top-line growth.

FV impact
Severe

Datadog Consolidation

· Medium

Enterprise IT consolidates entirely on Datadog or Splunk for observability, crowding out Elastic's premium offerings.

FV impact
Moderate

Perpetual Unprofitability

· High

SBC and R&D spend required to compete remain elevated indefinitely, preventing transition to structural profitability.

FV impact
High
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Revenue growth decelerating below 15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue expanding.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major enterprise logo churn to Datadog or native cloud tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Vector search adoption stalling in favor of standalone DBs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-04-302023-04-302024-04-302025-04-30Trend
राजस्व$862.4M$1.07B$1.27B$1.48B+19.8%
सकल लाभ$630.2M$772.4M$937.2M$1.10B+20.5%
परिचालन आय$-173.7M$-187.9M$-125.0M$-54.7M—
शुद्ध आय$-203.8M$-236.2M$61.7M$-108.1M—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-2.20$-2.47$0.59$-1.04—
EBITDA$-157.3M$-171.5M$-78.6M$6.1M—
R&D$273.8M$313.5M$342.0M$365.8M+10.1%
SG&A$530.1M$646.8M$720.3M$792.4M+14.3%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
6 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
2.35
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-3.02
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
-2.46
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
-0.0%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
किसी भी भाषा में PDF + DOCX निर्यात
मुफ़्त ट्रायल शुरू करें
कभी भी रद्द करें।
FAQ

ESTC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ESTC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $52.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $118 (range $79.8–$166), which implies roughly 126.2% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of ESTC also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit