आपकी अनुमति से हम गोपनीयता-सीमित विश्लेषण का उपयोग करके समझते हैं कि कौन-सी शोध यात्राएँ उपयोगी हैं। हम विज्ञापन ट्रैकर या सत्र रिकॉर्डिंग नहीं चलाते। आप यह विकल्प प्राथमिकताओं में बदल सकते हैं। पढ़ें गोपनीयता नीति.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
GNRC — frequently asked questions
Is Generac Holdings Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, GNRC screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 207 versus our fair value of USD 193; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 220. That implies roughly 7.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives GNRC a fair value of USD 193 and a potential value of USD 220. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Generac Holdings Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy GNRC now?
Our latest published rating for GNRC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Hold. Generac Holdings Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 207 versus fair value of USD 193; potential value is USD 220. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for GNRC?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Generac Holdings Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is GNRC's rating?
Our latest published rating for GNRC, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of USD 193, the potential value of USD 220, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 207).
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।
§1 कार्यकारी सारांशEN
30 सेकंड में जवाबHold
कीमत बनाम मूल्य
Price
$207.44
Fair value
$192.98
Potential value
$219.88
As of
2026-09-18
यह क्यों सफल हो सकता है
Accelerating electrical grid unreliability, recurring severe weather outages, and expanding commercial microgrid demand drive residential standby penetration beyond 6% and commercial power product revenue beyond $1,800.00M, generating fixed factory overhead absorption that expands operating margins toward 14.5% and lifts intrinsic value toward our Potential value of $219.88.
क्या हमारा दृष्टिकोण बदलेगा
Prolonged mild weather seasons and high consumer borrowing rates reducing power outage urgency and delaying big-ticket home standby generator installations.
We assign a Hold rating to Generac Holdings Inc., as shares trade at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026, which sits 7.5% above our Fair value estimate of $192.98, balancing post-destocking operating leverage against near-term valuation and cyclical weather exposure.4
Our rating is Hold. For an ordinary investor, this means existing shareholders should maintain their positions rather than committing fresh capital, while prospective buyers should wait for a wider margin of safety or a clearer acceleration in shipment volumes.
The report was prepared at a price of $207.44 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 7.5% above our of $192.98, representing an upside of -7.0% to the central valuation, while offering 6.0% upside to our of $219.88.
The main risk to this outlook is that extended mild weather and elevated consumer borrowing costs suppress home generator awareness and delay big-ticket purchases. In that event, residential equipment shipments would fall, plant capacity would remain underutilized, and operating margins would stay compressed near the trough 6.87% recorded in FY2025. A reader would observe this risk taking hold if residential power product revenue drops below a $2,000.00M annual run-rate or quarterly operating margins fall below 6.00%.6,7
The primary driver that can unlock value is post-destocking volume recovery in residential standby systems combined with double-digit expansion in commercial microgrids and edge backup power. As factory shipments rebound, fixed manufacturing overhead is absorbed across higher sales, driving gross margins toward 40% and lifting operating margins toward 14.5%. This operating leverage would expand cash generation and allow per-share value to approach our Potential value of $219.88, though realizing that outcome remains secondary to our central Fair value.6,7
Category Leadership in Residential Standby Power
Generac commands dominant market share in North American residential home standby generation, supported by high consumer brand awareness and an exclusive network of over 8,500 certified installation dealers.7
Gross margins sustained at 38.29% during the FY2025 inventory destocking trough; volume recovery toward consensus revenue of $6,019.27M in FY2027 creates powerful fixed overhead absorption to lift operating margins toward 14.5%.1,6
Commercial and Industrial Grid Resilience Demand
Grid vulnerability and edge power needs drive demand for commercial generators and decentralized microgrids, where Generac generated $1,457.39M in FY2025, diversifying revenue away from residential storm cycles.7
हाउस सिफ़ारिश
Hold: Generac's market leadership and post-destocking earnings recovery are balanced by valuation, with the stock trading above our Fair value of $192.98 amid cyclical weather exposure.
कंपनी का अवलोकन
Founded in 1959, Generac is a leading global designer, manufacturer, and provider of a wide range of energy technology solutions. Generac provides power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices & solutions, and other power products and services serving the residential, commercial, data center, telecom, rental, and industrial markets. The Company’s broad portfolio of energy technology offerings for homes and businesses enables its mission to Power a Smarter World and lead the evolution to more resilient, efficient, and innovative energy solutions. The Company has two reportable segments for financial reporting purposes – domestic and international. The domestic segment includes the legacy Generac business and all historical acquisitions based in the U.S. and Canada, all of which have revenues substantially derived from the U.S. and Canada.
The international segment includes all historical acquisitions not based in the U.S and Canada, all of which have revenues substantially derived from outside the U.S and Canada.
§2 बेयर केसEN
A joint stress scenario combining weak outage activity, higher borrowing costs, and industrial competition tests the company's financial flexibility. In FY2025, operating profit dropped to $289.19M as channel destocking reduced overhead absorption. While annual interest expense of $70.70M remains covered by $437.98M in operating cash flow, persistent revenue growth below 7.35% would prolong margin compression and constrain free cash flow.
High consumer borrowing rates curb big-ticket purchases
Heavy industrial competitors constrain commercial standby pricing
A downside scenario exists where extended mild weather suppresses power outage urgency, high borrowing costs deter home improvement spending, and heavy engine competitors take commercial market share. Under these conditions, shipment growth remains weak and operating margins stay compressed in single digits. This path would be confirmed by residential equipment revenue falling below seasonal thresholds.
Operating margin fell to 6.87% in FY2025 on $289.19M operating income. An operating margin below 6.0% confirms failure of fixed overhead absorption, resulting in an estimated fair-value impact of -1.6%.6
FV impact
-1.6%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
वे पाँच घटनाक्रम जो हमारे निवेश तर्क को कमजोर करेंगे।
01
operating_margin
Operating margin falling below 6.00% confirms failure of fixed factory overhead absorption and persistent channel inventory drag.
Generac's competitive moat is rated Narrow based on its established category leadership in North American residential home standby power. The core advantage stems from its specialized network of over 8,500 certified dealers who provide direct customer acquisition, installation, permitting, and recurring maintenance.
This proprietary distribution channel provides meaningful pricing power, enabling Generac to sustain a 38.29% gross margin in FY2025 during an industry downturn, comfortably exceeding diversified machinery peer Cummins at 25.77%. However, the moat is bounded by exposure to cyclical weather patterns and increasing competition in large commercial standby systems.
आर्थिक लाभ
Reported FY2025 operating income compressed to $289.19M on $4,209.15M of revenue, producing an operating margin of 6.87%. Economic profits are projected to recover as sales rebound toward $6,019.27M in FY2027 and fixed plant overhead is absorbed.1,6
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Direct Dealer Distribution Network — Generac's exclusive network of over 8,500 certified residential dealers drives $2,266.91M in residential power product sales, creating high local barriers to entry.Wide
02Brand Equity and Pricing Power — Generac sustained a 38.29% gross margin in FY2025, substantially above primary engine competitor Cummins at 25.77%.Moderate
मोट को ज्ञात खतरे
ख़तरा
गंभीरता
समयरेखा
शमन
Commercial Standby Encroachment by Heavy Industrial Manufacturers
medium
12-24 months
Targeting decentralized commercial microgrids and telecom backup where customized natural gas gensets have an advantage over large diesel units.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($192.98). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $320.9M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 39.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Commercial and industrial power products sustain double-digit growth
The Base scenario projects steady post-destocking normalization as dealer inventories align with retail demand. Operating margins expand toward historical averages as higher volume absorbs fixed overhead, supporting intrinsic value reaching $192.98 with an estimated probability of 60.0% and an expected return of -7.0% relative to $207.44. This path would be confirmed by quarterly shipments meeting consensus expectations and disconfirmed by renewed dealer order pauses.
Maintain Hold; Maintain existing position sizing and review quarterly progress in commercial power lines.
ट्रिगर: Shipments and operating margins track consensus expectations, confirming steady progress along the post-destocking normalization path.
Results in line with expectations support the projected recovery path toward $192.98, keeping risk and reward balanced relative to $207.44.
मिस
Downgrade to Reduce; Re-examine dealer order backlogs, evaluate consumer financing headwinds, and consider trimming position exposure.
ट्रिगर: Shipments miss consensus targets and operating margins contract due to severe weather lulls or extended dealer ordering pauses.
A material shortfall reveals operating deleverage and softer consumer demand, expanding downside risk relative to $207.44.
आय की गुणवत्ता
Earnings quality is solid, characterized by operating cash flow substantially exceeding reported net income as excess channel inventory was converted into cash. Positive free cash flow generation throughout the downcycle indicates that revenue reflects genuine customer collections rather than extended payment terms or deferred costs.
घोषणा से पहले देखे जाने वाले मेट्रिक्स
01
मेट्रिक:
Residential Standby Generator Shipments
वर्तमानNormalizing after dealer inventory digestion, with second-half shipments tracking seasonal weather activity.
यह क्यों मायने रखता है
Residential units generate the bulk of company sales and profit; expanding shipments verify consumer demand recovery, while slower orders cause factory underutilization.
Generac generated $437.98M in operating cash flow in FY2025, which after $169.85M in capital expenditures yielded $268.13M of free cash flow. Operating cash flow covered net income of $159.55M by 2.75x, demonstrating strong cash generation through channel inventory liquidation.5,6
पूँजी आवंटन
Capital allocation emphasizes share repurchases and debt management. In FY2025, Generac deployed $147.92M toward buybacks, reducing diluted shares from 62.06M in FY2023 to 59.28M in FY2025. Total debt stood at $1,333.07M with cash of $341.41M, keeping debt manageable while supporting steady per-share compounding.
Current ROIC of 6.14% is below WACC of 10.32%, reflecting trough cyclical conditions. Economic value creation will resume as operating margins surpass 10.0%.
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) trades at 17.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 21.0x compares with a peer median of 15.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: GE Vernova Inc., Cummins Inc., Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and Emerson Electric Co., as of 2026-09-20.
§10 उद्योग और चक्रEN
चक्र चरण
Contraction
Machinery industry capex to revenue is 4.10% and capex to depreciation is 0.68, while Generac capex was $169.85M in FY2025 on $4,209.15M revenue.6
बुल चक्र
Accelerating power grid unreliability, recurring major storm outages, and rising edge computing power needs drive residential standby penetration and commercial microgrid adoption.
बेयर चक्र
Multi-year periods of mild weather, high consumer interest rates for home improvement loans, and aggressive commercial bidding by diversified engine manufacturers restrict equipment shipments.
दीर्घकालिक रुझान
रुझान
प्रभाव
टिप्पणी
Grid Vulnerability and Severe Storms
positive
Aging electrical infrastructure and frequent extreme weather events increase household awareness and demand for on-site backup power.
Decentralized Commercial Microgrids
positive
Electrification and edge facility requirements drive commercial adoption of modular backup generation.
High Financing Rates on Big-Ticket Purchases
negative
Elevated consumer interest rates increase financing costs for home standby generator installations.
स्थिति
Generac is the clear leader in residential standby power with over 70% share, while operating as an agile challenger in commercial and industrial standby against Cummins.3
§11 स्थिति प्रबंधनEN
साइज़िंग
2-3%
With the house rating set at Hold and shares trading close to our $192.98 Fair value, we recommend an existing allocation of 2-3% of portfolio equity, avoiding fresh capital additions until a wider margin of safety emerges.
जोखिम
Position risk management emphasizes dealer inventory weeks-on-hand and weather outage patterns. Exposure should remain moderate until quarterly operating margins demonstrate consistent expansion above 10.0%.
प्रवेश ट्रांच
स्तर
क्रिया
क्यों
Below $170.00
Initial Addition
Offers an entry point at a meaningful discount to our $192.98 Fair value, providing a favorable margin of safety.
Downgrade recommendation to Reduce and lower normalized operating margin assumption below 10.0%.
operating_margin
Below 6.00% in any reported quarter
§12 निवेशक दृष्टिकोणEN
Base Case
Hold
With Generac trading at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026, shares stand 7.5% above our Fair value of $192.98. Post-destocking volume recovery is progressing, but balanced valuation and cyclical storm dependency warrant a Hold.4
Bull Perspective
Buy
Investors anticipating severe storm seasons and accelerated commercial microgrid adoption could see operating margins rebound toward peak levels of 17%+, driving valuation toward our Potential value of $219.88.
Bear Perspective
Avoid
The bear perspective identifies prolonged mild weather and high consumer interest rates as the key trigger, which would prolong channel inventory destocking, suppress factory overhead absorption below 6.00% operating margin, and trigger an estimated 45.7% fair-value reduction.6
§14 अंतिम सिफ़ारिशEN
क्रिया
होल्ड
We recommend holding Generac Holdings Inc. at $207.44 as of September 18, 2026. Shares trade 7.5% above our Fair value estimate of $192.98, balancing multi-year post-destocking volume recovery against cyclical storm vulnerability.4
Investors should maintain current portfolio weightings between 2% and 3% and refrain from adding fresh capital until a wider margin of safety emerges below $170.00, or until quarterly shipments confirm sustained operating margin expansion above 10.0%.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-09-20 · Published 2026-09-20 · cited for 2 figuresCited in बेयर केस, वित्तीय इतिहास
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-09-20 · Published 2026-09-20 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 3 figuresCited in प्रतिस्पर्धी मोट, बेयर केस, उद्योग और चक्र
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Macroeconomic weakness and consumer financing drag cause severe top-line revenue shortfall
House forecast expects 17.35% revenue growth in FY2026 and 21.86% in FY2027 toward $6,019.19M. Missing FY2026 growth by 10 percentage points (falling below 7.35%) results in an estimated fair-value impact of -9.7%.1
FV impact
-9.7%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Multiple derating as market re-evaluates Generac as a cyclical capital goods manufacturer
Forward earnings models assume a 21.16x terminal multiple, whereas peer Cummins trades at 15.43x forward P/E. A 20% multiple derating to 16.93x results in an estimated fair-value impact of -5.0%.3
FV impact
-5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Elevated cost of capital driven by high beta and higher-for-longer refinancing costs
Generac carries a raw beta of 1.8393 and total debt of $1,333.07M. An increase in WACC from 10.32% to 12.32% results in an estimated fair-value impact of -13.5%.2,4
The Bull scenario reflects widespread electrical grid disruptions, severe weather events, and strong demand for edge data center backup that accelerate residential generator penetration. Operating margins approach prior cycle highs, lifting intrinsic value toward $219.88 with an estimated probability of 20.0% and an expected return of 6.0% relative to $207.44. This path would be confirmed by sustained double-digit shipment growth across consecutive quarters.
Factory overhead is mostly fixed; rising shipment volume expands margins, while manufacturing curtailments cause sharp margin compression.
वर्तमानHolding stable at healthy premium levels above broad machinery peers.
यह क्यों मायने रखता है
Maintaining a gross margin premium over industrial equipment peers demonstrates brand equity and dealer loyalty; discounting would indicate moat erosion.
04
मेट्रिक:
Commercial and Industrial Power Sales
वर्तमानAdvancing steadily supported by orders across telecom, edge computing, and decentralized power projects.
यह क्यों मायने रखता है
Growth in telecom backup, commercial facilities, and microgrids diversifies revenue away from volatile residential storm cycles.
05
मेट्रिक:
Share Repurchase Pace
वर्तमानContinuing to decline as free cash flow is deployed into ongoing share buybacks.
