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PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $8.05, high $14.0, with mid-point at $11.0.
Stock analysis

PATH UiPath Inc. fair value $11–$14

PATH
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Information Technology
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मूल्य
$10.79
▲ +0.19 (+1.76%)
उचित मूल्य
$11
$11–$14
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 84/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+1.8%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$9.33
buy below · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$5.7B
P/E fwd 12.0
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $11 with high case $14.
  • Implied upside of 1.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$11
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$10.79Price
FV $10.98
High $13.97

PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs embedded deep
    High switching costs embedded deep within enterprise legacy workflows.
  • Incumbent scale and broad integrations
    Incumbent scale and broad integrations in traditional RPA markets.
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise AI adoption drives massive structural process orchestration needs across sectors.

§2 बेयर केस

A recessionary enterprise software budget freeze coupled with Microsoft bundling forces drastic pricing cuts. Base case growth of 9% plummets to 0%, while fixed R&D and SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs severely destroy GAAP margins.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

AI Generative Disruption

· Medium

Generative AI agents bypass traditional RPA workflows entirely, collapsing gross margins and pipeline growth.

FV impact
Severe downside toward the FCFF DCF floor of $4.48 per share.
Trigger
12-24 months

Structural Margin Stagnation

· High

Intense competitive pricing pressure from Microsoft prevents operating margins from reaching the 25% terminal assumption.

FV impact
Fair value composite drops aggressively to the $8.05 bear case.
Trigger
24-36 months

Uncontrolled SBC Escalation

· Low

Inability to retain engineering talent forces higher stock-based compensation, permanently impairing free cash flow to equity.

FV impact
Resets terminal valuation multiple structurally below 15x.
Trigger
12-18 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Net revenue retention falling sustainably below the 110% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remaining stubbornly above 18% of revenue without top-line acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degradation below 80% indicating severe pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin trajectory missing the required 25% terminal target path.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Measurable market share loss in the standalone orchestration segment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
राजस्व—$1.06B$1.31B$1.43B$1.61B+11.1%
सकल लाभ—$878.5M$1.11B$1.18B$1.34B+11.1%
परिचालन आय—$-348.3M$-164.7M$-162.6M$56.8M—
शुद्ध आय—$-328.4M$-89.9M$-73.7M$282.3M—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-1.16$-0.60$-0.16$-0.13——
EBITDA—$-329.6M$-142.1M$-145.3M$73.7M—
R&D—$285.8M$332.1M$380.7M$385.2M+7.8%
SG&A—$941.1M$944.8M$964.6M$897.6M-1.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
7 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
3.41
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.32×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
2.1%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

PATH — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PATH trades close to fair value. The current price is $10.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $11.0 (range $8.05–$14.0), which implies roughly 1.8% upside to the midpoint.

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