Analisi facoltativa del prodotto
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Alternative-accommodation supply, better product and large-partner integrations could extend growth while procurement savings fund the required investment.
Consolidated annual revenue growth below 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Strong Buy. The report-date price of $193.29 stands below Fair value of $292.84.3
The shares also stand below Potential value of $368.47, but Fair value remains the main reference.
The main risk is a merchant-led slowdown. If revenue growth stays below 5% for two years, necessary investment could weaken both profit and cash.7
The strongest upside driver is cash-funded platform investment. Better inventory, product and partner distribution can lift sales while procurement savings protect profitability.45
FY2025 operating cash flow was $9.41 billion and free cash flow was $9.09 billion.56
Inventory improvements and large-partner integrations could broaden customer choice and distribution.4
Merchant scale and connected-trip activity can link customer demand with broader inventory, although disclosed conversion and retention measures do not yet prove lasting reinforcement.47
Strong Buy because the valuation gap is supported by cash generation and credible platform investment options.5
Its mission is to make it easier for everyone to experience the world. Booking Holdings Inc. aims to provide consumers with a best-in-class experience with tailored planning, payment, language, and other options seamlessly connecting them with its travel service provider partners.
Booking Holdings Inc. offers these services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable: In the near term, the company is focused on providing consumers the ability to build a complete travel itinerary from AI-powered inspiration and planning to in-trip suggestions for attraction options.
The central stress is a merchant-led slowdown while investment remains necessary. Lower sales growth and weaker spending productivity would pressure profit and cash together.
Merchant concentration amplifies weaker transaction economics, while continued investment reduces profit and cash. Recovery requires renewed growth without further margin erosion.
If EBIT margin stays below 29% for two fiscal years, necessary product and marketing spending would absorb procurement savings and weaken earnings and cash generation.4
Post-FY2027 revenue growth below 6% for two years would show that inventory and partner initiatives did not extend growth, prompting investors to pay less for future earnings.
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
A sustained slowdown would show that merchant scale and new inventory are not overcoming softer demand or competitive pressure, reducing sales growth and operating leverage.
Attuale:Management expected Q3 revenue growth of 4%–6% in 2026.
Avviso seBelow 5% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Booking’s advantage depends on inventory breadth, product integration and partner reach. Better choice can lift conversion, attract more supply and reinforce the merchant business, but U.S. alternative accommodations still need investment.
Strong reported cash generation shows that the advantages currently produce owner value, but cash generation is an outcome rather than a moat source.5
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($292.84). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $7.3B after modeled capex of $322.0M, with terminal value at 68.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Merchant scale and strong cash generation support compounding, but later growth fades because measurable forecast visibility ends after FY2027.15
A broad beat supports merchant-led compounding.
In-line results preserve near-term visibility.
A broad miss links demand and investment pressure.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded profit; continued investment tests persistence.36
Slower growth weakens leverage.
The cash profile supports resilience because reported profit became deployable cash in FY2025. The key test is whether that remains true while product and inventory spending continues.46
Diluted average shares declined from 913.25 million in FY2023 to 815.975 million in FY2025. Future per-share gains require repurchases to remain cash-funded after investment and dividends.
The cited evidence supports strong cash generation, but this section does not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital series.
No quantified spread is presented. The enterprise discount rate was 9.3905% as of 2026-09-08.
The resulting operating margin was 32.79% for FY2025.
Maintaining similar profitability requires procurement gains to offset ongoing product, inventory and marketing spending.
Cash from operations materially exceeded FY2025 net income of $5.40 billion.
| Ricavi | 26.917.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Costo del venduto | 0 USD |
| Utile lordo | 26.917.000.000 USD |
| Costi operativi | 18.092.000.000 USD |
| Reddito operativo | 8.825.000.000 USD |
| Voci non operative e imposte | -3.421.000.000 USD |
| Utile netto | 5.404.000.000 USD |
| Attività totali | 29.264.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Disponibilità liquide | 17.203.000.000 USD |
| Attività correnti | 22.264.000.000 USD |
| Passività totali | 34.842.000.000 USD |
| Passività correnti | 16.698.000.000 USD |
| Deficit patrimoniale | 5.578.000.000 USD |
| Utile netto | 5.404.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Afflusso operativo | 9.409.000.000 USD |
| Ammortamenti e svalutazioni | 623.000.000 USD |
| Compensi basati su azioni | 617.000.000 USD |
| Altre rettifiche operative | 2.765.000.000 USD |
| Flusso di cassa operativo | 9.409.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità disponibile | 26.497.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità iniziale | 16.193.000.000 USD |
| Effetto dei tassi di cambio | 895.000.000 USD |
| Deflusso da investimenti | 313.000.000 USD |
| Deflusso da finanziamenti | 8.915.000.000 USD |
| Riacquisti di azioni | 6.440.000.000 USD |
| Dividendi pagati | 1.248.000.000 USD |
| Rimborso netto del debito | 1.289.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità finale | 17.269.000.000 USD |
| Flusso da investimenti | -313.000.000 USD |
| Flusso da finanziamenti | -8.915.000.000 USD |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Ricavi per categoria di attività | Ricavi | Quota | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Revenue | 17,8 Mld USD | 66% | 25,5% |
| Agency Revenue | 8 Mld USD | 29,6% | -6,5% |
| Advertisingandotherrevenues | 1,2 Mld USD | 4,4% | 11,3% |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
| Ricavi per area geografica | Ricavi | Quota | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non Us | 24,3 Mld USD | 90,4% | 14,5% |
| United States | 2,6 Mld USD | 9,6% | 3,8% |
Dati finanziari puntuali utilizzati nell’analisi del 2026-09-08.
| Periodo | Ricavi | EBITDA | Utile netto | Flusso di cassa operativo | Flusso di cassa libero | Capex | Ammortamenti e svalutazioni | Compensi basati su azioni | Riacquisti di azioni | Dividendi pagati | Emissione netta di debito | Flusso da investimenti | Flusso da finanziamenti | Liquidità iniziale | Liquidità finale | Liquidità e investimenti | Debito totale | Margine operativo | ROIC | WACC | Differenziale ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 10,7 Mld USD | 3,2 Mld USD | 2,1 Mld USD | 4 Mld USD | 3,8 Mld USD | 220 Mln USD | 309 Mln USD | 249,7 Mln USD | 1 Mld USD | 0 USD | — | -3,3 Mld USD | -1 Mln USD | — | 2,1 Mld USD | 4,3 Mld USD | 6,2 Mld USD | 27,1% | — | 7,5% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 12,7 Mld USD | 5 Mld USD | 2,3 Mld USD | 4,7 Mld USD | 4,4 Mld USD | 288 Mln USD | 363 Mln USD | 261,3 Mln USD | 1,8 Mld USD | 0 USD | — | -4,2 Mld USD | -79 Mln USD | 2,1 Mld USD | 2,6 Mld USD | 7,4 Mld USD | 8,8 Mld USD | 35,8% | — | 7,2% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 14,5 Mld USD | 5,5 Mld USD | 4 Mld USD | 5,3 Mld USD | 4,9 Mld USD | 442 Mln USD | 426 Mln USD | 331 Mln USD | 6 Mld USD | — | — | 2,2 Mld USD | -7,4 Mld USD | 2,6 Mld USD | 2,6 Mld USD | 6,3 Mld USD | 8,6 Mld USD | 36,8% | — | 7,2% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 15,1 Mld USD | 6,9 Mld USD | 4,9 Mld USD | 4,9 Mld USD | 4,5 Mld USD | 368 Mln USD | 469 Mln USD | 325 Mln USD | 8,2 Mld USD | — | — | 7,1 Mld USD | -8,2 Mld USD | 2,6 Mld USD | 6,3 Mld USD | 7,3 Mld USD | 7,6 Mld USD | 35,5% | — | 6,5% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 6,8 Mld USD | 1,6 Mld USD | 59 Mln USD | 85 Mln USD | -201 Mln USD | 286 Mln USD | 458 Mln USD | 255 Mln USD | 1,3 Mld USD | — | — | 2,6 Mld USD | 1,5 Mld USD | 6,3 Mld USD | 10,6 Mld USD | 11,1 Mld USD | 12,4 Mld USD | -9,3% | — | 6,0% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 11 Mld USD | 2,4 Mld USD | 1,2 Mld USD | 2,8 Mld USD | 2,5 Mld USD | 304 Mln USD | 421 Mln USD | 376 Mln USD | 163 Mln USD | — | — | -998 Mln USD | -1,2 Mld USD | 10,6 Mld USD | 11,2 Mld USD | 11,2 Mld USD | 11,3 Mld USD | 22,8% | — | 6,3% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 17,1 Mld USD | 4,9 Mld USD | 3,1 Mld USD | 6,6 Mld USD | 6,2 Mld USD | 368 Mln USD | 451 Mln USD | 404 Mln USD | 6,6 Mld USD | 0 USD | 1,7 Mld USD | -518 Mln USD | -4,9 Mld USD | 11,2 Mld USD | 12,3 Mld USD | 12,4 Mld USD | 12,5 Mld USD | 29,9% | — | 8,8% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 21,4 Mld USD | 7 Mld USD | 4,3 Mld USD | 7,3 Mld USD | 7 Mld USD | 345 Mln USD | 504 Mln USD | 530 Mln USD | 10,4 Mld USD | 0 USD | 1,4 Mld USD | 1,5 Mld USD | -8,9 Mld USD | 12,3 Mld USD | 12,1 Mld USD | 12,7 Mld USD | 14,2 Mld USD | 27,3% | — | 9,0% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 23,7 Mld USD | 9,3 Mld USD | 5,9 Mld USD | 8,3 Mld USD | 7,9 Mld USD | 429 Mln USD | 591 Mln USD | 599 Mln USD | 6,5 Mld USD | 1,2 Mld USD | 3,5 Mld USD | 129 Mln USD | -4,2 Mld USD | 12,1 Mld USD | 16,2 Mld USD | 16,2 Mld USD | 16,6 Mld USD | 31,8% | — | 9,8% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 26,9 Mld USD | 9,2 Mld USD | 5,4 Mld USD | 9,4 Mld USD | 9,1 Mld USD | 322 Mln USD | 623 Mln USD | 617 Mln USD | 6,4 Mld USD | 1,2 Mld USD | -1,3 Mld USD | -313 Mln USD | -8,9 Mld USD | 16,2 Mld USD | 17,3 Mld USD | 17,8 Mld USD | 18,7 Mld USD | 32,8% | — | 9,1% | — |
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at 15.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.3x compares with a peer median of 16.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Airbnb Inc., The TJX Companies Inc., McDonald's Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending was 1.3% of revenue and 1.12 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, suggesting modest asset expansion rather than a large capacity build.
Travel demand can support Booking when capacity normalizes and travelers keep shifting among domestic and regional options. Management reported resilient demand despite route disruption.
Higher travel costs, disrupted transit corridors and macro volatility can slow room nights and bookings before platform investments produce returns.
Booking has broad geographic exposure, but competition can raise acquisition spending and weaken growth. The mixed comparison set is useful only as a boundary because business models and margins differ.
Use a normal core position, not an oversized position based on Potential value. The valuation gap is favorable, but later growth, reinvestment needs and the repurchase path remain less visible than FY2027 estimates.13
Keep sizing tied to delivered FY2026–FY2027 results and a cash-funded investment and repurchase plan, not the highest valuation outcome.
The report-date price offers a favorable gap to Fair value, supported by strong FY2025 cash generation and dated FY2027 forecasts.35
Add in stages while revenue, profitability and cash remain consistent with the base thesis.
Use a smaller staged position because post-FY2027 growth and the long-run repurchase path require further evidence.13
Strong Buy: the $193.29 report-date price is below Fair value of $292.84, while FY2025 cash generation supports the operating case.35
The view depends on merchant-led growth remaining strong enough to fund product, inventory and marketing needs without sustained margin erosion.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A cost of equity above 12.0828% would reduce the present value of long-dated earnings even if operations remained profitable.2
Avviso seBelow 29% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Weak growth after the visible forecast period would suggest that B2B distribution and inventory initiatives are not extending platform demand or partner economics.
Attuale:The FY2027 revenue forecast was $32.01 billion as of 2026-09-08.
Avviso seBelow 6% for two consecutive post-FY2027 fiscal years.
A higher required return would make future earnings worth less today, compressing value even without an operating downturn or liquidity problem.
Attuale:10.0828% as of 2026-09-08.
Avviso seAbove 12.0828% within 12 months.
Persistently weaker cash collection would reduce funds for strategic investment and repurchases, making per-share earnings growth more dependent on financing or lower spending.
Attuale:FY2025 operating cash was $9.41 billion versus $5.40 billion of net income.
Avviso seOperating cash at or below 0.8 times net income for two fiscal years.
Limitation: Terminal value is 61.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 107 USD comes from forecast-period earnings and 182 USD from the long-term value, totaling 289 USD.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Upside persists if procurement savings fund growth work and partner distribution extends demand beyond the visible forecast period.4
Declines show investment absorbing savings.4
Performance drives consolidated results.7
Improvement broadens growth.4
Adoption can broaden distribution.4
| $34.57B |
| $36.99B |
| $39.21B |
| Operating income | $9.36B | $10.24B | $11.06B | $11.84B | $12.55B |
| NOPAT | $7.44B | $8.14B | $8.79B | $9.40B | $9.97B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $7.44B | $8.14B | $8.79B | $9.40B | $9.97B |
| Revenue growth | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Diluted shares | 771.29M | 729.06M | 689.14M | 651.41M | 615.74M |
| EPS | $9.15 | $12.38 | $14.11 | $15.94 | $17.83 |
| Net margin | 24.1% | 28.2% | 28.1% | 28.1% | 28.0% |
| Implied net income | $7.06B | $9.02B | $9.72B | $10.38B | $10.98B |
| Margine |
|---|
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | $145.2B | 15.8x | 5.1x | 14.3x | — | — |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc. | 29.6x | 8.3x | 35.4x | 34.5% | 21.0% | |
| TJX | The TJX Companies Inc. | 22.9x | 2.3x | 17.3x | 62.2% | 10.9% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 18.3x | 6.5x | 15.7x | — | 46.5% | |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 13.1x | 3.8x | 13.5x | 44.7% | 27.1% |
| Cash versus profit | Operating cash at or below 0.8 times profit for two fiscal years. | Reduce exposure until cash generation again supports investment and shareholder distributions.6 |
