Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)

The Base scenario represents the central projection with an assessed probability of 50.0%, establishing Fair value at $42.47, which represents an expected return of -31.4% relative to the share price of $61.94. This projection reflects steady commercial adoption across the growth portfolio alongside anticipated top-line contraction in FY2027 following European patent expirations on Eliquis. Operating margins compress moderately as loss of exclusivity impacts pricing, while robust operating cash flows continue to cover scheduled debt maturities and the dividend. Disconfirmation would occur if top-line revenue contracts faster than guided step-down levels or if pipeline programs encounter unexpected clinical or regulatory delays.

• Eliquis experiences guided European revenue step down followed by gradual generic erosion
• Commercial growth portfolio expands at steady pace to partially cushion revenue decline
• Operating margins moderate as loss of exclusivity impacts pricing
• Operating cash flows cover scheduled debt maturities while limiting discretionary capital return