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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
BMY — frequently asked questions
Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-25, BMY looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 61,9 USD versus our fair value of 42,5 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 52,7 USD. That implies roughly 31.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25, gives BMY a fair value of 42,5 USD and a potential value of 52,7 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy BMY now?
Our latest published rating for BMY, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 61,9 USD versus fair value of 42,5 USD; potential value is 52,7 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for BMY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-25 documents Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is BMY's rating?
Our latest published rating for BMY, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 42,5 USD, the potential value of 52,7 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (61,9 USD).
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.
§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiSell
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$61.94
Fair value
$42.47
Valore potenziale
$52.68
Al
2026-09-25
Perché può funzionare
Commercial outperformance of newly launched therapies—with Qvantig achieving its 30% to 40% share target and Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl expanding globally—coupled with positive Phase 3 data for milvexian demonstrating superior safety over Eliquis and more than 10 new medicine launches by 2030, which could stabilize top-line revenue and support our Potential value of USD 52.68.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
European patent expiry on Eliquis in mid-Q4 2026 accelerating generic erosion, driving FY2027 consolidated revenue below USD 46.0 billion.
We rate Bristol-Myers Squibb a Sell with a Fair value of USD 42.47, representing 31.4% downside from the USD 61.94 price on September 25, 2026, as impending patent losses on core blockbusters outweigh commercial growth portfolio contributions.4
The house rating is Sell. For an ordinary investor, this means capital is at elevated risk of erosion, and positions should be sold or avoided because the company's earnings power is poised to contract faster than the market price reflects.4
On September 25, 2026, the shares traded at USD 61.94. This price sits 45.8% above our Fair value of USD 42.47 and 17.6% above our Potential value of USD 52.68. Even under favorable pipeline delivery, the share price on that date exceeded the high end of our valuation range.
The primary risk that reinforces our view is an accelerating revenue cliff as Eliquis faces European patent expiration in mid-Q4 2026, causing a confirmed USD 1.5 billion to USD 2.0 billion top-line step-down in FY2027. If replacement therapies fail to cover this gap and consolidated revenue drops below USD 46.0 billion in FY2027, operating cash flow would fall, leaving the company vulnerable as it services USD 45.05 billion in total debt.1,4,5
The business could outperform if newly commercialized therapies—such as Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl—accelerate adoption while Qvantig expands toward its 30% to 40% market share target. If Phase 3 readouts for milvexian demonstrate superior bleeding safety and more than 10 new medicines launch by 2030, revenue growth would stabilize, potentially lifting value per share toward our Potential value of USD 52.68.5
Expansion of Commercial Growth Portfolio
Accelerating adoption of Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, combined with Qvantig reaching USD 1 billion run-rate and aiming for 30% to 40% market share, could cushion top-line erosion.5
Late-Stage Pipeline Delivery
Successful commercialization of more than 10 new medicines by 2030 and unconstrained launch of milvexian could restore long-term growth and support Potential value of USD 52.68.5
Generating USD 14.16 billion in FY2025 operating cash flow provides near-term liquidity to service upcoming debt maturities while funding clinical research.7
Raccomandazione interna
Sell, because impending patent cliffs on Eliquis and Opdivo will contract earnings and cash flow faster than newly commercialized pipeline assets can replace them.1,5
Panoramica dell’azienda
Such extensions are granted on a country-by-country basis. Level 3 unobservable inputs are used when little or no market data is available.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
Under an acute downside scenario, consolidated revenue declines past the guided $1.5B to $2.0B European Eliquis step down in FY2027 toward consensus low of $45.89B. With $45.05B in total debt, $23.42B in current liabilities, and a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93%, refinancing $8.84B in upcoming five-year debt maturities amidst contracting operating cash flow reduces free cash conversion well below FY2025's $12,845M. In parallel, clinical development delays, such as the slower event recruitment observed in Cobenfy ADEPT-1, prevent new product commercialization from offsetting loss of exclusivity on Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo, driving terminal valuation multiples down to 8.0x and reducing fair value toward the downside anchor of $27.99.
Terminal valuation multiples de-rate toward the lower band of mature biopharma peers
A downside case exists where accelerated generic substitution across core biopharmaceutical franchises severely outpaces new product commercialization, compounded by clinical trial delays and elevated debt refinancing costs. Under this trajectory, contracting operating cash flow and high debt service reduce free cash conversion, compressing valuation multiples toward the low-growth pharmaceutical peer floor. Early qualitative disconfirmation signals include top-line contraction breaching guided thresholds and clinical recruitment bottlenecks in major late-stage programs.
Come questa tesi può fallire
Accelerated generic erosion and European LOE on Eliquis drives consolidated top-line revenue well below base case expectations
CCO Adam Lenkowsky confirmed an anticipated $1.5B to $2.0B revenue step down in FY2027 following Eliquis patent expiry in Europe in mid-Q4 2026. FY2027 consensus revenue is $48.21B with analyst low at $45.89B. If accelerated generic substitution drives revenue below the trigger threshold of $46.0B within 15 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -15.8%.1,5
FV impact
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
Bristol-Myers Squibb possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in patented drug formulations, regulatory marketing exclusivities, and high switching costs across oncology and specialty biopharmaceutical care. In FY2025, the company delivered $13,724M in operating income on $48,194M of revenue, generating returns on invested capital of 16.02% that exceed its moderate cost of equity of 7.43% and WACC of 6.80%.
However, this moat is inherently time-limited and narrowing due to the finite statutory duration of pharmaceutical patents. Core blockbuster therapies that have anchored the company's financial profile—notably Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo—are entering their loss-of-exclusivity windows. Eliquis faces patent expiry in Europe in mid-Q4 2026 with an anticipated $1.5B to $2.0B revenue step down in FY2027, while Opdivo approaches loss of exclusivity later in the decade. The speed at which generic alternatives erode branded volume once patent protection expires prevents the assignment of a wide economic moat rating.
To defend its competitive position, management is advancing a commercial growth portfolio including Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, while targeting more than 10 new medicine introductions by 2030 and over 30 life cycle opportunities. While early commercial traction is evidenced by Qvantig annualizing over $1B, the multi-year lag between clinical development and commercial scale leaves economic profits exposed to compression over the next five years, justifying a 5-year stage I and 5-year stage II competitive fade structure.
Profitto economico
BMY generates returns on invested capital of 16.02% that exceed its moderate cost of equity of 7.43% and computed WACC of 6.80%. Operating income reached $13,724M on revenue of $48,194M in FY2025, generating $12,845M in free cash flow. However, economic profit spreads will compress as patent expiries reduce operating margins from 28.5% toward 15.0% in the house terminal forecast schedule.2,4,6,7
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Patented Biopharmaceutical Formulations and Regulatory Exclusivity — Patented molecular entities and regulatory exclusivity grant proprietary pricing power and commercial exclusivity across core therapies like Eliquis, Opdivo, Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, supported by over 10 new medicine candidates and over 30 life cycle opportunities.Moderate
02High Physician and Patient Switching Costs in Oncology and Specialty Therapeutics — In oncology and specialized cardiovascular conditions, physicians hesitate to switch stabilized patients off established regimens like Opdivo and Eliquis due to severe clinical risks and unfamiliarity with alternative titration profiles, sustaining therapy adherence.Moderate
Loss of exclusivity and generic substitution on Eliquis
high
Mid-Q4 2026 through FY2027
Scaling new commercial portfolio (Camzyos, Sotyktu, Reblozyl) and advancing next-generation Factor XIa inhibitor milvexian in partnership with Pfizer.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($42.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Operating cash flows cover scheduled debt maturities while limiting discretionary capital return
The Base scenario represents the central projection with an assessed probability of 50.0%, establishing Fair value at $42.47, which represents an expected return of -31.4% relative to the share price of $61.94. This projection reflects steady commercial adoption across the growth portfolio alongside anticipated top-line contraction in FY2027 following European patent expirations on Eliquis. Operating margins compress moderately as loss of exclusivity impacts pricing, while robust operating cash flows continue to cover scheduled debt maturities and the dividend. Disconfirmation would occur if top-line revenue contracts faster than guided step-down levels or if pipeline programs encounter unexpected clinical or regulatory delays.
Accelerated commercial adoption of newly launched specialty biopharmaceuticals
Milestone Phase Three readouts for late-stage pipeline therapies proceed without delay
Operating margins stabilize near historical highs with disciplined operational spending
§7 Albero decisionale degli utiliEN
Superato
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine outer-year revenue contraction assumptions, verify whether new launch volume sustains gross margins, and assess whether balance sheet debt repayment accelerates.
Trigger: Consolidated revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share exceed consensus expectations, driven by higher than guided Eliquis demand and accelerating volume uptake across the commercial specialty portfolio.
Material top-line outperformance indicates that the commercial growth portfolio is absorbing generic erosion faster than anticipated, providing intermediate operating cash flow stabilization.
In linea
Maintain Sell; Continue monitoring European patent expiry dynamics, quarterly cash conversion against debt service requirements, and pivotal trial enrollment progress across the late-stage pipeline.
Trigger: Results meet consensus expectations, with Eliquis tracking within management full-year growth guidance and legacy generic erosion continuing at projected rates.
Operating performance in line with consensus confirms the house baseline expectation that multi-blockbuster patent expirations will compress medium-term earnings power while debt service absorbs discretionary cash flow.
Mancato
Maintain Sell; Stress test outer-year margin assumptions, evaluate potential credit rating downgrade risks, and reassess long-term dividend coverage.
Trigger: Consolidated revenue falls short of consensus expectations, driven by sharper than anticipated Eliquis step downs or slowing growth across newly launched specialty medicines.
Top-line underperformance confirms that generic competition is eroding the core franchise faster than replacement assets can scale, threatening operating margins and cash flow conversion.
Qualità degli utili
Earnings quality is supported by operating cash flow that comfortably exceeds reported GAAP net income, driven by steady non-cash depreciation and amortization add-backs and modest manufacturing capital requirements. Working capital dynamics remain tied to large wholesale distributor collection schedules, where inventory adjustments during branded-to-generic product transitions represent the primary cash conversion risk. Gross margin durability reflects patent-protected specialty pricing that remains vulnerable to future patent expirations and mandatory statutory price negotiations.
AttualeTracking within management full-year growth guidance following recent upward revisions, with European patent expiry approaching in mid-fourth quarter.
Perché è importante
Eliquis represents the largest individual revenue contributor; any deceleration in baseline demand or accelerated generic erosion in Europe impairs top-line cash generation and accelerates operating margin contraction.
In FY2025, BMY demonstrated robust cash generation with operating cash flow of $14,156M and free cash flow of $12,845M, reflecting low manufacturing capital intensity with capital expenditures of only $1,311M. This yielded an operating cash flow conversion of 200.7% relative to net income of $7,054M, supported by $4,011M in depreciation and amortization. However, working capital settlement across top distributors McKesson (36%), Cencora (29%), and Cardinal Health (22%) and European patent cliff step-downs of $1.5B to $2.0B starting in late 2026 will tighten free cash flow headroom over the medium term.5,6,7,8
Allocazione del capitale
Capital allocation is constrained by $45,053M in total debt, $23,417M in current liabilities, and $8.84B in scheduled debt maturities over the next 5 years against a pre-tax of 5.93%. Annual dividend commitments of $2.52 per share absorb approximately $5.15B across 2,042,715,000 . Management has confirmed no compulsion to chase large external M&A deals, appropriately prioritizing balance sheet deleveraging, dividend defense, and targeted internal pipeline advancement (>10 new medicines by 2030).
The positive spread between ROIC and cost of capital is driven by legacy blockbuster cash flows, with FY2025 operating income at $13,724M. However, as generic competition erodes Eliquis and Opdivo revenues and consensus projects FY2027 top-line contraction to $48,208M, operating margins are projected to decline, compressing the economic profit spread over the next 3 to 5 years.
BMY's current ROIC of 16.02% comfortably clears its computed WACC of 6.80% and moderate Ke of 7.43%, generating positive economic value spread of approximately 9.22 percentage points.
Ponte dei flussi di cassaCome il flusso di cassa operativo è diventato flusso di cassa libero nel FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Riconciliazione del flusso operativo
Utile netto7,1 Mld USDAmmortamenti e svalutazioni+4 Mld USDCompensi basati su azioni+553 Mln USDAltre rettifiche operative+2,5 Mld USDFlusso di cassa operativo14,2 Mld USD
Riconciliazione della liquidità iniziale e finale
Liquidità iniziale10,3 Mld USDFlusso di cassa operativo+14,2 Mld USDFlusso da investimenti−4,1 Mld USDFlusso da finanziamenti−10,3 Mld USDEffetto dei tassi di cambio+195 Mln USDLiquidità finale10,2 Mld USD
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) trades at 9.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.4x compares with a peer median of 13.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., Amgen Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Biogen Inc., as of 2026-09-25.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Contraction
Industry benchmark capex-to-revenue stands at 1.1% and capex-to-depreciation at 0.80x as of 2026-09-21. BMY's FY2025 capex of $1,311M on $48,194M revenue reflects low capital intensity (2.72%), with capex-to-depreciation of 0.33x against depreciation of $4,011M, below the industry benchmark of 0.80x. Because physical capacity utilization and supply lead-time metrics are not reported, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Ciclo rialzista
In an industry upcycle, clinical trial success across Phase 3 pipelines accelerates regulatory approvals, while demand for novel specialty therapeutics expands biopharma operating margins toward peer benchmarks such as AMGN's 35.55%.
Ciclo ribassista
In a pharmaceutical downcycle, simultaneous patent expirations on major blockbusters trigger sharp generic revenue loss, while mandatory price negotiations and clinical trial recruitment delays compress industry operating margins below the sector benchmark of 29.50%.
Trend secolari
Trend
Impatto
Nota
Legislative and Regulatory Drug Price Negotiation
negative
US Medicare drug price negotiation frameworks mandate statutory price discounts on high-expenditure legacy drugs, eroding gross margins across US revenues ($33,279M in FY2025).
Expansion of Next-Generation Cardiovascular and Immunology Therapeutics
positive
Increasing prevalence of chronic cardiovascular disease and expanding addressable markets, such as the guided $8B-$10B IPF/PPF market by the mid-2030s, create multi-billion dollar replacement opportunities for milvexian and pipeline assets.
Posizionamento
BMY occupies a vulnerable cyclical position within large-cap biopharma as it enters the peak of its loss-of-exclusivity transition on Eliquis and Opdivo, lagging high-margin peers like AMGN (35.55% operating margin) and trading at a forward P/E of 9.36x as of 2026-09-25 versus peer AMGN's 16.78x.3,4
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
0%
Investors should eliminate or avoid long equity exposure in BMY until patent cliff erosion is fully discounted and pipeline replacement reaches commercial inflection.4
Rischio
Risk management focuses on capital preservation given the stock's significant overvaluation relative to intrinsic value (share price of $61.94 as of 2026-09-25 versus $42.47 Fair value). Upside risks that could temporarily squeeze short positions include unanticipated Eliquis patent litigation victories, faster-than-expected commercial adoption of Camzyos and Reblozyl, or breakthrough Phase 3 efficacy data for milvexian. Investors should avoid unhedged short positions given the dividend commitment ($2.52 per share) and instead execute capital reallocation away from BMY into biopharma peers with superior growth profiles and unencumbered patent horizons.
Tranche di ingresso
Livello
Azione
Perché
$42.47 (Fair value)
Monitor only / No purchase
Reaching Fair value would eliminate the current 45.8% market premium but does not offer an adequate margin of safety to offset imminent patent expirations on Eliquis and Opdivo.
Downgrade outer-year terminal growth assumptions and lower Fair value to reflect accelerated patent cliff revenue erosion and pipeline commercialization delays.
§12 Prospettive degli investitoriEN
Value Investors
Avoid
Trading at USD 61.94 on September 25, 2026, the stock sits 45.8% above our Fair value of USD 42.47. A forward P/E of 9.36x appears optically inexpensive against peer medians but is a value trap given projected post-2026 earnings contraction.4
Growth Investors
Avoid
Consolidated revenue is projected to decline to USD 48.21 billion in FY2027 (-3.28%) due to the guided USD 1.5 billion to USD 2.0 billion European Eliquis step down, with negative EPS growth over the medium term.1,5
Income Investors
Avoid
While BMY pays a dividend of USD 2.52 per share, contracting free cash flow and USD 45.05 billion in total debt will limit dividend growth and create capital depreciation risk that exceeds cash yield.4
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Vendere
We recommend selling or avoiding Bristol-Myers Squibb as the share price of USD 61.94 on September 25, 2026 significantly exceeds our Fair value of USD 42.47. Impending generic erosion on blockbuster therapies Eliquis and Opdivo will drive top-line revenue and net earnings contraction through FY2030.1,4,5
While management is advancing commercial therapies like Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl alongside a late-stage pipeline targeting over 10 new medicine launches by 2030, these assets cannot scale fast enough to bridge the patent cliff, leaving the stock vulnerable to multiple contraction and balance sheet debt refinancing pressures.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 15 months
Pipeline commercialization failures and clinical delays force market multiple de-rating towards low-growth pharma floor
CMO Cristian Massacesi confirmed clinical trial delays in Cobenfy ADEPT-1 due to slower event recruitment. Inability of pipeline assets to offset Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo LOEs prompts a de-rating to the bear terminal multiple of 8.0x from 10.0x terminal P/E and forward P/E of 9.36x as of 2026-09-25. If the multiple de-rates below 8.0x within 24 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -20.0%.4,5
FV impact
-3.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Debt refinancing spike amidst high debt load and contracting cash flow drives up cost of capital
BMY carries $45.05B in total debt, $23.42B in current liabilities, and $8.84B in scheduled debt maturities over 5 years with pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93%. If refinancing drives WACC above the trigger threshold of 8.0% within 36 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -18.3%.2,4,7
European patent expiration on Eliquis in mid-Q4 2026 and statutory single-payer pricing caps accelerate international revenue decline.
Attuale:$13,828M in FY2025 (28.7% of total revenue)
Avviso seNon-US revenue drops below $12.0B in FY2027
Global Specialty Distribution and Logistics Infrastructure
— Entrenched distribution networks with major wholesalers including McKesson (36%), Cencora (29%), and Cardinal Health (22%), alongside $13,828M in non-US revenue infrastructure, ensure nationwide and international commercial reach.
Narrow
Opdivo patent cliff and biosimilar competition
high
24 to 48 months
Formulation innovation including subcutaneous delivery and advancing more than 10 late-stage pipeline therapies.5
Balance sheet deleveraging accelerates as cash flow covers debt maturities
Under the Bull scenario, which carries an assessed probability of 20.0%, intrinsic value reaches Potential value of $52.68, representing an upside return of -14.9% from the share price of $61.94. This path requires rapid commercial scaling across newly commercialized specialty biopharmaceuticals alongside positive pivotal Phase Three trial readouts for late-stage therapies such as milvexian. Full-year revenue performance must show immediate volume expansion that more than offsets generic erosion, while international commercial execution stabilizes realization. Disconfirmation would occur if clinical development schedules experience delays in patient enrollment or if competitive specialty therapies limit commercial penetration.
AttualeAnnualized revenue is expanding with Qvantig securing double-digit market share toward its long-term commercial target.
Perché è importante
Scaling commercial sales of newly launched specialty products including Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl reveals whether new volume can compensate for lost legacy blockbuster revenues.
03
Metrica:
Phase Three Clinical Trial Progression and Execution
AttualeAdvancing more than ten late-stage assets toward pivotal readouts despite observed event recruitment delays in certain neurology trials.
Perché è importante
Pivotal study readouts and event recruitment timeliness dictate whether next-generation medicines like milvexian can secure regulatory approval to drive outer-year revenue recovery.
Current cash flows provide near-term liquidity to service near-term debt, but the European Eliquis step down of $1.5B-$2.0B in FY2027 will narrow discretionary cash.
Debt maturity wall limits financial flexibility under elevated borrowing rates
BMY carries $45,053M in total debt with a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93% and $8.84B maturing over 5 years.
Refinancing debt in a higher-rate environment increases annual interest expense above FY2025's $1,891M, limiting capital return expansion.
Specialty commercial growth portfolio is scaling but cannot yet offset core blockbuster losses
Qvantig is annualizing over $1B with 15% market share toward a 30%-40% target, yet consensus FY2027 revenue contracts to $48,208M.
Turnaround inflection will require multiple years of clinical trial progression and new commercial launches before top-line expansion resumes.
Biopharmaceutical Loss of Exclusivity Acceleration
negative
Rapid generic substitution following European and US patent expirations strips off 80%+ of branded revenues within 24 months of loss of exclusivity, impacting Eliquis from late 2026 onward.
