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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MOS — frequently asked questions
Is The Mosaic Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-17, MOS trades close to fair value. The price recorded at analysis is 18,8 USD versus our fair value of 19,6 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 27,5 USD. That implies roughly 3.9% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-17, gives MOS a fair value of 19,6 USD and a potential value of 27,5 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Mosaic Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MOS now?
Our latest published rating for MOS, analyzed 2026-10-17, is Hold. The Mosaic Company trades close to fair value at the analysis-date price of 18,8 USD versus fair value of 19,6 USD; potential value is 27,5 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MOS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-17 documents The Mosaic Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MOS's rating?
Our latest published rating for MOS, analyzed 2026-10-17, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 5.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 19,6 USD, the potential value of 27,5 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (18,8 USD).
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§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiHold
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$18.82
Fair value
$19.55
Valore potenziale
$27.54
Al
2026-10-16
Perché può funzionare
Operating leverage and margin expansion in Phosphates as sulfur feedstock costs deflate back toward historical averages, unlocking idled capacity at Faustina and Bartow to capture widening DAP stripping margins alongside steady cash generation from the Esterhazy potash mine.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
Persistent sulfur inflation combined with prolonged contraction in Brazilian nutrient application.
The Mosaic Company is maintained at Hold with Fair value of $19.55 against $18.82, offering 3.9% upside as persistent sulfur raw material inflation and severe Brazilian demand contraction constrain near-term cash generation amidst a cyclical trough.
The Mosaic Company faces severe operational and macro headwinds as it navigates an acute cyclical trough in FY2026. Third-quarter 2026 sulfur contract settlements spiked to $705 per long ton, sharply elevating cash conversion costs in the Phosphate segment to $129 per tonne. In response, management curtailed production by idling 100% of the Faustina chemical plant and operating the Bartow facility at just 40% of target capacity, incurring $60 million of idle and unabsorbed fixed costs in Q2 2026. Concurrently, agricultural weakness across Latin America has led to an estimated 30% contraction in Brazilian crop nutrient application, causing Mosaic Fertilizantes to post an operating loss of -$41 million in Q2 2026.4
These dual pressures have severely compressed generation across the business. Consolidated was negative -$534.6 million in FY2025 and negative -$405.5 million through the first six months of 2026, while total balance sheet debt stood at $5,279.5 million as of December 31, 2025, representing a 50.4% debt weight in Mosaic's capital structure. Management has responded prudently by deferring routine plant turnaround , reducing FY2026 to $1.2 billion, and refinancing short-term paper through a $1.0 billion term loan facility.
Balancing these acute cyclical strains is the structural cash-generating power of Mosaic's Potash franchise. Centered on the low-cost Esterhazy asset base in Saskatchewan, the Potash segment delivered steady operating earnings, supported by competitive cash production costs and a fully subscribed summer fill program. At $18.82, the shares offer 3.9% upside to Fair value of $19.55. While normalized mid-cycle operating margins support eventual valuation recovery, near-term operational curtailments warrant maintaining a Hold rating.4
Premier Low-Cost Potash Mining Scale at Esterhazy
The Esterhazy potash facility represents one of the lowest-cost, most automated mining assets in the world, maintaining MOP cash production costs at $84 per tonne and generating dependable EBITDA ($278M in Q2 2026) across cyclical troughs.4
Substantial Torque Upon Phosphate Conversion Margin Normalization
Global soil nutrient under-application creates agronomic yield risks that inevitably drive catch-up fertilizer buying cycles; once sulfur input costs deflate from $705/long ton, phosphate operating margins possess substantial recovery torque toward mid-cycle 8.5%-10.5% levels.4
Unmatched Fertilizer Distribution Infrastructure in Latin America
Mosaic Fertilizantes holds irreplaceable port, blending, and distribution scale across Brazil ($4,847.3M FY2025 revenue), perfectly positioning the company to capture upside as South American crop acreage expands.7
Raccomandazione interna
Hold: Balanced risk/reward at $18.82 relative to Fair value of $19.55, reflecting near-term operational curtailments and raw material headwinds offset by medium-term mid-cycle recovery potential.
Panoramica dell’azienda
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a leading global producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and crop nutrients, headquartered in Tampa, Florida. The company operates through three principal business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. Mosaic serves global agricultural markets with essential crop nutrition inputs required for commercial agriculture and crop yield maximization.
The Phosphates segment owns integrated mining operations in Florida and processing facilities in Florida and Louisiana, manufacturing diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and performance nutrition products. The Potash segment operates major low-cost shaft and solution potash mines in Saskatchewan, Canada, anchored by the Esterhazy complex. The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment operates an extensive logistics, production, and distribution network across Brazil, distributing phosphate, potash, and chemical blends to retail and commercial farmers. In addition, the emerging Mosaic Biosciences platform develops biological crop solutions.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
A compound cyclical stress test evaluates the combined impact of sustained raw material price inflation, prolonged Latin American farm distress, and balance sheet leverage. In this scenario, third-quarter sulfur settlement prices of $705/long ton do not normalize in FY2027, maintaining unabsorbed fixed overhead and plant idling across Faustina (100% curtailed) and Bartow (running at 40%). Concurrently, the projected 30% reduction in Brazilian fertilizer nutrient application morphs into a multi-year farm recession, preventing Mosaic Fertilizantes ($4,847.3M FY2025 revenue) from recovering volume throughput. Under these conditions, annual free cash flow remains negative after FY2025's -$534.6M and H1 2026's -$405.5M deficit. This strains Mosaic's debt obligations ($5,279.5M total debt), widening credit spreads and driving WACC from 5.99% toward 7.99%, impairing equity intrinsic value by an estimated 28.5% to 31.5%.
In the Bear scenario, persistent refining disruptions keep global sulfur prices severely elevated, preventing phosphate conversion margins from recovering. Faustina remains fully shut down, and unabsorbed fixed overhead continues to bleed operating earnings. Concurrently, high interest rates and falling agricultural commodities prolong the Brazilian agricultural crisis, suppressing Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes. Persistent negative free cash flow forces Mosaic to refinance maturing debt at elevated interest rates, widening credit spreads, pushing capital costs higher, and delaying any margin recovery beyond FY2028.
Come questa tesi può fallire
Persistent sulfur inflation and extended operational curtailments suppressing operating margins
Sulfur contract prices settled at $705/long ton for Q3 2026, while Faustina is 100% idled and Bartow operates at 40%. If raw material disruption persists into FY2027 and unabsorbed fixed costs remain elevated, operating margin fails to recover toward 8.5%-10.5%.4
FV impact
-8.4%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
Mosaic's narrow economic moat is underpinned by structural cost and scale advantages across its core extraction and distribution footprint. In Potash, the company's Saskatchewan operations, centered on the Esterhazy mine complex, represent one of the lowest-cost potash extraction networks globally. The deployment of automated mining machines and Hydrofloat mineral processing capacity maintains MOP cash production costs at approximately $84 per tonne, allowing the Potash segment to maintain solid profitability ($195M operating earnings in Q2 2026) and complete summer fill commitments even during broader agricultural slumps. This asset position cannot be replicated without multi-billion-dollar greenfield capital expenditure and decadal development timelines.
In Latin America, the Mosaic Fertilizantes distribution infrastructure serves as a critical commercial moat source. With $4,847.3M in FY2025 segment revenue, Mosaic commands deep supply chain integration into Brazilian crop belts through dedicated port terminals, warehousing, and blending assets. This distribution scale allows Mosaic to capture retail margin premiums and channel its own North American phosphate and potash production directly into high-growth agricultural regions, creating significant switching costs for local agronomists and retail dealers relative to unintegrated importers.
However, the durability of Mosaic's competitive advantage is structurally constrained by its exposure to global commodity raw material inputs in its Phosphate business ($3,877.8M FY2025 revenue). While captive Florida phosphate rock deposits provide domestic supply security, the production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) requires merchant sulfur and ammonia. With third-quarter sulfur contract prices spiking to $705/long ton, conversion cash margins have turned negative, forcing substantial operational curtailments at the Faustina and Bartow chemical facilities. This input price vulnerability prevents Mosaic from achieving a wide moat rating.
Profitto economico
At the trough of the agricultural cycle in FY2025-FY2026, Mosaic generates returns on invested capital below its 5.99% weighted average cost of capital and 9.07% cost of equity, as invested capital stood at $17,138.8M at FY2025 while operating income compressed to $821.5M and turned to an operating loss of -$35.5M in Q2 2026. As operating margins normalize toward 10.0%-10.5% in FY2028-FY2030, economic profits turn positive across the cycle.2,5,6
5.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Low-Cost Extraction Scale and Geological Asset Quality — Mosaic's Esterhazy mine in Saskatchewan operates with leading cash production costs ($84/tonne finished MOP in Q2 2026) supported by hydrofloat capacity and fully subscribed summer fill demand, ensuring potash operating profitability ($195M operating earnings in Q2 2026) even when phosphate operations are curtailed.Wide
02Integrated Distribution Logistics Network in Latin America — Mosaic Fertilizantes operates the largest integrated fertilizer distribution network in Brazil, generating $4,847.3M of revenue in FY2025 through proprietary port terminals, blending facilities, and farmer direct access, creating meaningful logistical barriers for global imports.Moderate
Management has curtailed high-cost conversion capacity, idling Faustina and reducing Bartow to 40%, while relying on captive sulfur contract volumes and North American refining relationships.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($19.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $353.3M after modeled reinvestment of $62.3M, with terminal value at 84.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base scenario represents the modal expected path where FY2026 marks the cyclical earnings trough. Management caps FY2026 capital expenditures at $1.2B, while Esterhazy potash operations maintain low-cost production ($84/tonne cash cost). Through FY2027-FY2028, raw material prices gradually normalize from peak levels ($705/long ton Q3 sulfur), allowing Bartow and Faustina to resume higher operating rates. Operating margins recover from 4.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% in FY2027 and 10.0% in FY2028, with EPS recovering to $1.52 in FY2027 and $1.75 in FY2028, supporting our intrinsic fair value of $19.55.1,4
Latin American nutrient demand rebounds strongly post-drought, driving significant Mosaic Fertilizantes volume recovery.
Faustina and Bartow resume full operating rates, eliminating unabsorbed fixed overhead.
§7 Albero decisionale degli utiliEN
Superato
Upgrade the rating; Monitor sulfur contract negotiations, operational restart progress at idled facilities, and working capital cash release in Latin America.
Trigger: Consolidated operating margin expanding meaningfully above trough levels with realized sulfur costs declining substantially and Faustina restart announced
A substantial operating earnings beat driven by rapid sulfur cost deflation and operational restarts would confirm an accelerated return to mid-cycle profitability, warranting an upgrade to Buy.
In linea
Maintain Hold; Hold existing exposure, verify capital expenditure discipline within guided annual ceilings, and track quarterly cash conversion costs.
Trigger: FY2026 operating margin tracking trough expectations, capital expenditures adhering to guided ceilings, and phosphate benchmark prices stabilizing
Results matching trough expectations affirm that cyclical recovery remains on track but provide insufficient margin expansion to justify altering the Hold stance.
Mancato
Downgrade the rating; Scrutinize balance sheet debt headroom, re-evaluate cash break-even levels, and monitor potential for extended plant curtailments.
A severe miss from persistent input cost spikes and deeper demand contraction would prolong negative cash flows and threaten credit metrics, necessitating a downgrade to Reduce.
Qualità degli utili
Mosaic's earnings quality at the cyclical trough is low, characterized by a substantial divergence between reported GAAP results and underlying cash generation. In Q2 2026, Mosaic reported a GAAP net loss of -$272.8M ($0.86 diluted loss per share) compared to net income of $411.0M in Q2 2025, heavily distorted by $351.0M ($0.99 per share) in notable items including a $162.0M mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares, $69.0M in project write-offs, and $49.0M in foreign currency losses. Although management reported adjusted EBITDA of $407.0M and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.13, operating cash flow generated was only $167.4M, which was completely outpaced by $320.3M of capital expenditures, resulting in negative free cash flow of -$152.9M. In FY2025, free cash flow was similarly negative at -$534.6M despite reported GAAP net income of $540.7M. The prevalence of non-operating adjustments and persistent free cash flow deficits reflect stressed operational earnings quality.
Andamento delle stime
Consensus earnings estimates have demonstrated sharp downward momentum leading into the current analysis date. Over the last 7 to 30 days, sell-side consensus diluted EPS for FY2026 has been revised downward by 11.4% from $0.41 to $0.37. For Q4 2026, consensus EPS estimates fell by 10.3% from $0.20 to $0.18. These downward revisions reflect spreading recognition of sustained sulfur input cost inflation ($705/long ton contract settlement for Q3) and prolonged operational curtailments at the Bartow and Faustina phosphate facilities.1,4
Metriche da monitorare prima della pubblicazione
01
Metrica:
Gulf Coast Sulfur Contract Settlements
AttualeSettled at $705/long ton for Q3 2026
Perché è importante
Sulfur is the key merchant feedstock determining phosphate conversion cash margins; elevated input prices force facility curtailments and depress segment gross margins.
02
Metrica:
Phosphate Plant Operating and Curtailment Rates
AttualeFaustina is 100% idled; Bartow is operating at 40% of target capacity
Perché è importante
Unabsorbed fixed overhead in cost of goods sold directly suppresses consolidated operating earnings until curtailed plants return to full utilization.
Mosaic's cash flow profile reflects severe cyclical pressure. For FY2025, cash from operations reached $824.8M, which fell short of $1,359.4M in capex, yielding -$534.6M in free cash flow. Through the first six months of 2026, operating cash flow totaled $271.6M against capital expenditures of $677.1M, generating a free cash flow deficit of -$405.5M. In Q2 2026, operating cash flow fell to $167.4M from $609.5M in Q2 2025, impacted by lower EBITDA and reduced customer prepayments in Brazil. Management anticipates cash generation to improve in late FY2026 driven by seasonal working capital release in Brazil and the guided step-down in second-half capex toward the $1.2B annual limit. Over the house forecast horizon, FCFF is modeled to recover from $353.3M in FY2026 to $620.0M in FY2027 and $708.0M in FY2028 as reinvestment rates normalize at 25%-30%.
In FY2025, operating income of $821.5M on invested capital of $17,138.8M yielded an after-tax return on capital below the cost of capital. In FY2026, trough operating margins of 4.5% generate NOPAT of $415.6M, continuing the period of economic value compression. However, as operating margins recover toward 8.5% in FY2027 and reach mid-cycle levels of 10.0%-10.5% in FY2028-FY2030, NOPAT is projected to expand from $415.6M in FY2026 to $826.7M in FY2027 and $1,121.2M by FY2030. This expansion drives a steadily improving ROIC trajectory over the five-year forecast horizon.
At the FY2026 cyclical trough, Mosaic's return on capital hovers near or below its weighted average cost of capital of 5.99% and cost of equity of 9.07%. Over the forecast path, as operating margins reach 10.0%-10.5% and NOPAT exceeds $1.0B, ROIC comfortably clears the 5.99% WACC hurdle, generating sustained economic profit.
Ricavi più recenti12,1 Mld USDCAGR dei ricavi +6,0%
Margine operativo6,8%10 periodi fiscali
Flusso di cassa libero più recente-534,6 Mln USDFY2025
Debito netto5 Mld USDFY2025
Dettaglio del conto economicoCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ricavi12,1 Mld USDCosto del venduto−10,2 Mld USDUtile lordo1,9 Mld USDCosti operativi−1,1 Mld USDReddito operativo821,5 Mln USDVoci non operative e imposte−280,8 Mln USDUtile netto540,7 Mln USD
Dati della storia finanziaria
Ricavi
12.052.400.000 USD
Costo del venduto
10.150.500.000 USD
Utile lordo
1.901.900.000 USD
Costi operativi
1.080.400.000 USD
Reddito operativo
821.500.000 USD
Voci non operative e imposte
-280.800.000 USD
Utile netto
540.700.000 USD
Panoramica dello stato patrimonialeCome sono detenute e finanziate le attività dichiarate nel periodo selezionato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composizione delle attivitàFinanziato da
Attività totali24,5 Mld USDDisponibilità liquide276,6 Mln USDAttività correnti5,2 Mld USDPassività totali12,2 Mld USDPassività correnti4 Mld USDPatrimonio netto12,2 Mld USD
Dati di dettaglio dello stato patrimoniale
Attività totali
24.480.100.000 USD
Disponibilità liquide
276.600.000 USD
Attività correnti
5.237.500.000 USD
Passività totali
12.245.900.000 USD
Passività correnti
3.982.800.000 USD
Patrimonio netto
12.234.200.000 USD
Ponte dei flussi di cassaCome il flusso di cassa operativo è diventato flusso di cassa libero nel FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Riconciliazione del flusso operativo
Utile netto540,7 Mln USDAmmortamenti e svalutazioni+1 Mld USDCompensi basati su azioni+30,7 Mln USDAltre rettifiche operative−796,5 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo824,8 Mln USD
Riconciliazione della liquidità iniziale e finale
Liquidità iniziale305 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo+824,8 Mln USDFlusso da investimenti−1,3 Mld USDFlusso da finanziamenti+452 Mln USDEffetto dei tassi di cambio+26,3 Mln USDLiquidità finale298,6 Mln USD
824,8 Mln USD − 1,4 Mld USDFlusso di cassa libero -534,6 Mln USD
Dati del ponte dei flussi di cassa
Utile netto
540.700.000 USD
Afflusso operativo
1.621.300.000 USD
Ammortamenti e svalutazioni
1.049.900.000 USD
Compensi basati su azioni
30.700.000 USD
Flusso di cassa operativo
824.800.000 USD
Deflusso operativo
796.500.000 USD
Liquidità disponibile
1.608.100.000 USD
Liquidità iniziale
305.000.000 USD
Afflusso da finanziamenti
452.000.000 USD
Effetto dei tassi di cambio
26.300.000 USD
Deflusso da investimenti
1.309.500.000 USD
Liquidità finale
298.600.000 USD
Flusso da investimenti
-1.309.500.000 USD
Flusso da finanziamenti
452.000.000 USD
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota dei ricavi totali per 2025-12-31.
12,1 Mld USDRicavi totali
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota
Mosaic Fertilizantes4,8 Mld USD40,2%+9,6% a/a
Phosphates3,9 Mld USD32,2%+2,2% a/a
Potash2,7 Mld USD22,1%+12,1% a/a
Corporate Eliminations And Other668,6 Mln USD5,5%+24,7% a/a
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-27 · SEC EDGAR
Dati sulla composizione dei ricavi: Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi
Quota
a/a
Mosaic Fertilizantes
4,8 Mld USD
40,2%
9,6%
Phosphates
3,9 Mld USD
32,2%
2,2%
Potash
2,7 Mld USD
22,1%
12,1%
Corporate Eliminations And Other
668,6 Mln USD
5,5%
24,7%
Ricavi e utiliCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
Liquidità e debitoLiquidità disponibile rispetto all’indebitamento totale.
Generazione di cassaFlusso di cassa operativo rispetto al flusso di cassa libero.
RedditivitàEvoluzione dei margini lordo, operativo e netto.
Dati finanziari puntuali utilizzati nell’analisi del 2026-10-17.
The Mosaic Company (MOS) trades at 9.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 6.9x compares with a peer median of 9.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Corteva Inc., CF Industries Holdings Inc., Celanese Corporation and Eastman Chemical Company, as of 2026-10-17.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Trough
Management lowered FY2026 capital expenditures to $1.2B compared to $1,359.4M in FY2025; routine turnaround schedules and non-critical capital projects are deferred; high-cost conversion capacity has been idled (Faustina 100% idled, Bartow operating at 40%); and non-core assets including the Carlsbad potash mine were sold.4,6
Ciclo rialzista
The cyclical upcycle in crop nutrients is catalyzed by agricultural commodity price rallies (such as corn trading above $5.00/bushel), strong farm economics, tightening global fertilizer inventories, and raw material cost deflation. Under these conditions, phosphate stripping margins expand rapidly as realized DAP prices rise while sulfur and ammonia feedstock costs normalize, allowing producers to operate chemical plants at full capacity and generate substantial free cash flow.
Ciclo ribassista
The cyclical downturn is characterized by agricultural commodity price weakness, high farmer financing costs, elevated raw material input prices (sulfur settling at $705/long ton), and grower demand destruction. In Latin America, farmers faced severe affordability barriers, driving a 30% reduction in nutrient application in Brazil. This demand contraction forces producers to idle domestic conversion capacity, incur unabsorbed fixed costs, and absorb negative cash flow.
Trend secolari
Trend
Impatto
Nota
Global Food Security and Soil Nutrient Depletion
positive
Heavy nutrient removal from continuous global crop cultivation without adequate replenishment threatens long-term agricultural yields, setting the stage for future mandatory soil replenishment cycles.
Feedstock Supply Bottlenecks and Refining Dynamics
negative
Refining disruptions and geopolitical shipping bottlenecks have constrained global sulfur availability, driving raw material costs to $705/long ton and elevating cash conversion costs across the phosphate manufacturing complex.
Posizionamento
Mosaic is positioned as a primary North American and Brazilian nutrient producer navigating the cyclical trough through aggressive cost discipline, capex reduction to $1.2B, and strategic curtailment of unprofitable conversion facilities. Note that because third-party industry-wide capital expenditure benchmarks are unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited regarding broader competitor reinvestment behavior, but Mosaic's internal operational posture reflects classic trough-phase capital preservation.4
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
1.5-2.5%
A moderate conviction Hold is warranted by the deep discount to long-term replacement asset value offset by acute near-term cash burn (-$405.5M H1 2026 FCF), high balance sheet debt ($5,279.5M), and ongoing curtailments at Bartow and Faustina.3,4
Rischio
Position risk is governed by strict capital preservation guidelines given Mosaic's substantial debt load and elevated debt weight. Portfolio exposure should be kept conservative relative to total assets. Incremental capital commitments are prohibited until Faustina is re-commissioned and free cash flow inflects to positive. Credit spreads and short-term debt refinancing covenants must be reviewed quarterly.
From a fundamental perspective, Mosaic is positioned in a cyclical trough with FY2026 operating margins troughing before expanding across FY2027 and FY2028. Fair value of $19.55 captures this mid-cycle recovery, while $18.82 leaves 3.9% upside.
Income and Balance Sheet Perspective
Hold
From a credit and income perspective, negative free cash flow in FY2025 and ongoing total debt obligations demand caution. The dividend provides income support, but capital appreciation remains constrained until debt metrics improve.3,5
Operational Risk Perspective
Hold
From an operational risk perspective, plant curtailments at Bartow and Faustina along with significant contraction in Brazilian nutrient demand create ongoing earnings uncertainty, offsetting the stability of the Potash segment.4
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Mantenere
The Mosaic Company is rated Hold. At $18.82, the shares offer 3.9% upside to Fair value of $19.55. While Mosaic's low-cost potash operations in Saskatchewan provide durable operational ballast, the Phosphate and Fertilizantes segments remain challenged by sulfur raw material price spikes and Brazilian demand weakness.3,4
Management's decisive actions to lower FY2026 capex and curtail unprofitable conversion capacity protect balance sheet liquidity. However, until raw material price pressures abate and free cash flow inflects positively, risk and reward remain balanced, justifying a Hold stance.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-17 · Published 2026-10-17 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 4 figuresCited in Scenari, Albero decisionale degli utili
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Prolonged agricultural downturn and Latin American demand contraction depressing revenue
Brazil nutrient application is projected to decline 30%, driving severe segment volume declines and domestic production idling in Brazil. An extended multi-year farm recession would suppress top-line recovery below baseline expectations.4
FV impact
-8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Balance sheet distress and credit rating downgrade escalating cost of capital
Total debt of $5,279.5M and a 50.4% debt weight create acute balance sheet vulnerability if free cash flow remains negative (-$534.6M in FY2025), driving credit spreads higher and escalating debt refinancing costs.2,3,5
FV impact
-19.9%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Extended agricultural recession across Latin America driving multi-year fertilizer under-application, domestic production idling, and sustained distribution volume compression.
Attuale:-30% projected nutrient application decline in Brazil in 2026
Persistent free cash flow deficits on $5,279.5M total debt with 50.4% debt weight triggering credit downgrades and widening debt refinancing spreads.
Attuale:Negative FCF of -$534.6M in FY2025 and -$405.5M in H1 2026; computed WACC 5.99%
Avviso seWACC > 7.99% or persistent negative annual FCF into FY2027
04
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion
Sustained raw material price inflation and low plant operating rates (58% in Q2 2026) driving conversion cash costs above historical norms and destroying stripping margins.
Attuale:$129/tonne cash conversion cost in Phosphates in Q2 2026; realized sulfur at $522/long ton and ammonia at $621/tonne
— Mosaic owns fully integrated phosphate rock mining operations in Florida, producing rock at cash costs of $62/tonne in Q2 2026 and supporting $3,877.8M in FY2025 segment revenue, insulating the company from merchant rock import dependencies despite merchant sulfur exposure.
Latin American farm credit strain and prolonged nutrient under-application reducing distribution volume throughput
high
Next 12-24 months
Preserving animal feed operations at Cajati, idling uncompetitive commodity conversion in Brazil, and targeting high-margin biologicals expansion via Mosaic Biosciences ($30M revenueguidance in Q3 at 40% gross margin).4
High debt burden ($5,279.5M total debt) amid negative FCF leading to credit rating pressure
medium
Next 12 months
Refinancing short-term commercial paper into a $1B term loan and reducing FY2026 capital expenditures to $1.2B, while deferring non-critical turnaround outlays.4
56,3%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (8,37 USD) plus discounted terminal value (46,94 USD) minus signed per current share (15,74 USD) equals the 39,57 USD lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the Bull scenario, global sulfur supply bottlenecks resolve swiftly, driving feedstock prices sharply downward and widening phosphate conversion margins. High crop commodity prices incentivize global farmers to replenish depleted soils, driving strong fertilizer application across Brazil and North America. Faustina and Bartow resume full capacity operations, eliminating idle cost absorption penalties. Consolidated operating margins expand to peak levels, free cash flow generation accelerates significantly, and disciplined debt paydown restores balance sheet strength.4
AttualeNutrient application projected to decline ~30% in Brazil in 2026
Perché è importante
Mosaic Fertilizantes generates over 40% of consolidated revenues ($4,847.3M in FY2025); prolonged farmer under-application undermines volume throughput and blending margins.7
Mosaic's capital allocation has shifted decisively toward capital preservation and balance sheet defense. In FY2025, capital expenditures totaled $1,359.4M, exceeding operating cash flow of $824.8M and driving free cash flow to -$534.6M. In response to ongoing cash burn (-$405.5M FCF in H1 2026), management lowered FY2026 capexguidance to $1.2B, suspended discretionary share repurchases, completed the sale of the Carlsbad potash mine, and established a $1.0B term loan facility to refinance maturing short-term commercial paper. The regular quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share ($0.88 annualized) was maintained, requiring approximately $70M per quarter. With total debt at $5,279.5M (50.4% debt weight), capital allocation must remain tightly restricted to debt containment until phosphate cash conversion margins recover.
Phosphate Cash Conversion Margins Compressed by Sulfur Feedstock Spike
Sulfur contract settlement of $705/long ton for Q3 2026 drove Q2 cash conversion costs to $129/tonne in Phosphates and $141/tonne in Fertilizantes, creating segment operating losses of -$104M and -$41M respectively.
Elevated raw material costs compress consolidated operating margin to a trough of 4.5% in FY2026, delaying margin recovery until sulfur prices normalize.
Potash Segment Acts as Resilient Cash Generation Ballast
Potash delivered $195M in operating earnings and $278M in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, supported by an MOP cash production cost of $84/tonne and stable mine gate pricing of $275/tonne.
Low-cost potash extraction at Esterhazy provides a profitable cash flow anchor that shields Mosaic from corporate insolvency during phosphate downturns.
Adoption of Biological Solutions and Yield Enhancement Technology
positive
Rising demand for biological and nutrient efficiency technologies to enhance crop performance; Mosaic Biosciences reported $25M in Q2 sales, launched 5 products, and targets $30M in Q3 sales at 40% gross margin.
Secondary entry level on a meaningful discount to $19.55
Evaluate disciplined accumulation for long-term cyclical recovery
Provides adequate margin of safety to absorb ongoing cash burn and leverage risk while capturing substantial upside upon mid-cycle margin recovery.
