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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TRMB — frequently asked questions
Is Trimble Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, TRMB looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 57,6 USD versus our fair value of 28,3 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 39,1 USD. That implies roughly 50.9% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives TRMB a fair value of 28,3 USD and a potential value of 39,1 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Trimble Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TRMB now?
Our latest published rating for TRMB, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Sell. Trimble Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 57,6 USD versus fair value of 28,3 USD; potential value is 39,1 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TRMB?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Trimble Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TRMB's rating?
Our latest published rating for TRMB, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 28,3 USD, the potential value of 39,1 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (57,6 USD).
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.
§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiSell
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$57.56
Fair value
$28.25
Valore potenziale
$39.08
Al
2026-09-18
Perché può funzionare
Accelerated adoption of cloud-connected workflows in the AECO segment expands subscription annual recurring revenue above 15% annually, lifting consolidated operating margin past 22% and driving fair value toward the Potential value of $39.08.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 13.50% over the next 12 months.
We rate Trimble a Sell based on a fundamental Fair value of $28.25 against the report-date price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026, representing an upside of -50.92%.3
A Sell rating means investors should not commit new capital to Trimble and should liquidate or avoid common share positions. The shares carry an upside of -50.92% to fundamental valuation, indicating substantial capital loss risk at prevailing market levels.3
The report was prepared at a share price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 103.8% above our fundamental Fair value of $28.25 and 47.3% above our Potential value of $39.08. Even under an optimistic operating turnaround, the report-date price exceeds what business fundamentals justify.
The central risk that could further depress operating performance is hardware pricing pressure and civil construction contraction. If specialized instrument competitors force Field Systems ($1,539.5M revenue in FY2025) into discounting or commercial construction stalls, consolidated operating margin would fall below 13.50% against 16.50% reported in FY2025. Investors would observe this through quarterly gross margin contraction and rising inventory across dealer channels.4,5
The primary operational driver that could lift cash generation is accelerated cloud software adoption in the architectural, engineering, construction, and owners segment, which generated $1,498.6M in FY2025. If subscription annual recurring revenue expands above 15% annually, high gross margins of 69.07% would expand consolidated operating margins past 22%, lifting value toward our Potential value of $39.08. However, this potential remains well below the report-date price of $57.56.3,4,5
Proprietary GNSS algorithms and deep field-to-office software connectivity protect surveying and construction workflows against competitors.2,5
Switching Costs
Deep integration of Trimble software platforms, including Tekla, SketchUp, and Viewpoint, directly into architectural, engineering, construction, and owner workflows creates substantial procedural switching barriers for enterprise contractors. In FY2025, the AECO segment generated $1,498.6M in revenue, representing 41.8% of consolidated top-line sales.5
Raccomandazione interna
Trimble is rated Sell because the share price of $57.56 on September 18, 2026, trades at a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value of $28.25, leaving substantial downside risk despite ongoing software transition efforts.3
Panoramica dell’azienda
Today’s work requires solutions for an interconnected world, no matter the industry. This has driven Trimble to move increasingly from point solutions to connected workflows and to industry ecosystems enabled by its industry platforms and access to industry data—all boosted by its AI capabilities. Trimble offers a diverse range of coherent capabilities that connect applications, data, workflows, and mobile technologies to more efficiently orchestrate work, often in mixed stakeholder, mixed user, and mixed fleet environments. The Field Systems segment provides software and hardware products and services to private, commercial, and government customers. The businesses within Field Systems serve surveying and mapping professionals, civil construction, building construction field services, and positioning systems.
TRIMBLE INC. sells and distribute its products in the Field Systems segment through a global network of independent distribution partners, and increasingly through direct and digital channels. •Deliver customer outcomes that can enable productivity, quality, safety, transparency, and environmental sustainability. Across its business segments, its technological solutions deliver customer value through digital transformation, replacing legacy methods to improve productivity, first-time quality, worker safety, operational transparency, and sustainability.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
Under a comprehensive downside stress test, a synchronized contraction in global commercial construction and European infrastructure activity reduces Field Systems and Transportation demand, pushing consolidated revenue growth below -1.84%. In response to aggressive competitor discounting, gross margins contract, driving consolidated operating margin below the danger threshold of 13.50%. Concurrently, higher credit spreads and debt refinancing on Trimble's $1,459.3M total debt obligation elevate WACC above 11.43%. This combination curtails free cash flow generation, dropping the valuation toward the lower band of $23.45.
Commercial and infrastructure construction slowdown reduces demand for positioning hardware and delays new software seats.
Competitive pricing pressure compresses gross margins across surveying and civil engineering product lines.
Refinancing existing debt obligations occurs at higher yields, increasing cost of capital and discount rates.
The Bear scenario incorporates prolonged macroeconomic contractions across commercial construction and European infrastructure markets. Hardware discounting against specialized measurement peers compresses gross margins, while civil construction project deferrals suppress equipment demand in Field Systems, stalling margin recovery and lowering cash conversion.
Historical GAAP EBIT margin was 11.81% in FY2023 and 16.50% in FY2025. Peer Fortive maintains an operating margin of 19.14% and Keysight maintains 25.68%. If pricing competition forces Field Systems ($1,539.5M revenue) into discounting, consolidated operating margin drops below 13.5%.4,5
FV impact
-16%
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
01
operating_margin
Operating margin dropping below 13.50% indicates that hardware price discounting in Field Systems or cost absorption friction is overriding software operating leverage.
Trimble's economic moat is rated Narrow, supported by strong customer switching costs in construction and surveying workflows and backed by specialized positioning algorithms and brand equity. In FY2025, the company generated $2,477.9M in gross profit, representing a gross margin of 69.07% on $3,587.3M of consolidated revenue. Customer retention is reinforced by the high procedural cost of replacing connected office-to-field software systems once engineering teams and trade contractors standardize on Trimble's modeling and layout platforms.
The durability of this advantage is challenged by cyclical hardware exposure and peer capabilities. Competitors such as Fortive maintain gross margins of 63.23% and operating margins of 19.14%, while Keysight achieves operating margins of 25.68%. Because Field Systems represents 42.9% of revenue ($1,539.5M) and Transportation represents 15.3% ($549.2M), 58.2% of Trimble's business remains exposed to cyclical equipment investment cycles, bounding the economic moat to a narrow designation rather than a wide one.
Profitto economico
Trimble generates a trailing return on invested capital of 7.08%, which sits below its computed weighted average cost of capital of 9.43%. This negative economic spread of 2.35 percentage points reflects balance-sheet expansion and goodwill of $5,239.7M, though expanding high-margin software subscriptions support an upward return trajectory toward the cost of capital over the explicit projection period.1,4
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Deep integration of Trimble software platforms, including Tekla, SketchUp, and Viewpoint, directly into architectural, engineering, construction, and owner workflows creates substantial procedural switching barriers for enterprise contractors. In FY2025, the AECO segment generated $1,498.6M in revenue, representing 41.8% of consolidated top-line sales.Wide
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary GNSS positioning algorithms, optical measurement intellectual property, and established field hardware brands sustain differentiation against general instrument providers, generating $1,539.5M in Field Systems revenue in FY2025.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.25). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $595.1M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 46.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Cost of capital remains aligned with long-term capital structure and moderate equity risk premiums.
The Base scenario carries 50.0% probability, establishing an intrinsic target of $28.25, which corresponds to -50.9% return from $57.56 (as of 2026-09-18). Under this path, recurring cloud subscriptions in AECO expand at a steady pace, while Field Systems hardware shipments track modest construction growth, allowing consolidated operating margins to normalize toward target levels over the forecast horizon.
Rapid migration of contractors to cloud-based BIM software drives double-digit annual subscription ARR growth.
Consolidated operating margin expands beyond historical highs due to high gross-margin software leverage.
§7 Albero decisionale degli utiliEN
Superato
Upgrade to Reduce; Re-evaluate position size and review AECO annual recurring revenue conversion alongside Field Systems order intake before considering any reallocation.
Trigger: Revenue and diluted earnings per share exceeding consensus expectations alongside accelerated subscription growth in AECO
An operational beat powered by accelerated subscription annual recurring revenue in AECO would improve margin durability and narrow the valuation gap toward $39.08.
In linea
Maintain Sell; Maintain defensive posture with no new capital commitment, monitoring the gap between share price and $28.25.
Execution in line with consensus projections confirms that the modeled turnaround is tracking expectations, leaving shares overvalued relative to $28.25.
Mancato
Maintain Sell; Accelerate reduction of any remaining holdings, re-assessing balance sheet liquidity and Field Systems customer demand.
An operational shortfall driven by hardware margin degradation or civil project deferrals would reinforce bear casekill scenarios and pressure the shares downward.
Qualità degli utili
Cash conversion reflects how effectively operating income translates into real cash flow. When calculating operating cash flow, non-cash stock-based compensation is added back to operating income, which lifts reported cash flow above operating earnings but creates ongoing shareholder dilution. While asset-light operations and modest physical capital expenditures support reported cash generation, true economic cash conversion is tempered by this equity compensation. Nevertheless, cash flow from core operations remains positive, and working capital requirements have remained manageable across recent reporting periods.
Metriche da monitorare prima della pubblicazione
01
Metrica:
AECO Subscription ARR Expansion
AttualeDemonstrating steady expansion as architectural and engineering customers migrate to cloud modeling platforms.
Perché è importante
Continued expansion of recurring software subscriptions demonstrates customer retention and expands consolidated gross margin.
Capital allocation has focused on debt paydown and share repurchases following portfolio divestitures. Management reduced total debt by more than half from its FY2023 peak of $3,188.5M to $1,459.3M. In FY2025, the company deployed $863.4M into share repurchases, reflecting capital return in the absence of a common dividend, while maintaining disciplined ($25.3M).
Return on invested capital currently measures 7.08%, depressed by $5,239.7M of goodwill accumulated during prior acquisitions. As software mix expands in AECO and operational restructuring takes effect, capital efficiency and operating margins are modeled to lift returns toward and eventually above the cost of capital.
Trailing ROIC of 7.08% generates a negative economic spread against the computed WACC of 9.43%, reflecting ongoing turnaround execution requirements before economic profit generation turns positive.
AECO revenue reached $1,498.6M in FY2025 (41.8% of consolidated sales), supporting consolidated of $2,477.9M and a 69.07% .
Ricavi più recenti3,6 Mld USDCAGR dei ricavi +3,9%
Margine operativo16,5%10 periodi fiscali
Flusso di cassa libero più recente360,9 Mln USDFY2026
Debito netto1,1 Mld USDFY2026
Dettaglio del conto economicoCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.30 giu 2026
Ricavi972 Mln USDCosto del venduto−297,1 Mln USDUtile lordo674,9 Mln USDCosti operativi−542,9 Mln USDReddito operativo132 Mln USDVoci non operative e imposte−603,7 Mln USDUtile netto-471,7 Mln USD
Dati della storia finanziaria
Ricavi
972.000.000 USD
Costo del venduto
297.100.000 USD
Utile lordo
674.900.000 USD
Costi operativi
542.900.000 USD
Reddito operativo
132.000.000 USD
Voci non operative e imposte
-603.700.000 USD
Utile netto
-471.700.000 USD
Panoramica dello stato patrimonialeCome sono detenute e finanziate le attività dichiarate nel periodo selezionato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composizione delle attivitàFinanziato da
Attività totali9,3 Mld USDDisponibilità liquide253,4 Mln USDAttività correnti1,6 Mld USDPassività totali3,5 Mld USDPassività correnti1,5 Mld USDPatrimonio netto5,8 Mld USD
Dati di dettaglio dello stato patrimoniale
Attività totali
9.312.000.000 USD
Disponibilità liquide
253.400.000 USD
Attività correnti
1.631.900.000 USD
Passività totali
3.475.800.000 USD
Passività correnti
1.503.400.000 USD
Patrimonio netto
5.836.200.000 USD
Ponte dei flussi di cassaCome il flusso di cassa operativo è diventato flusso di cassa libero nel FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Riconciliazione del flusso operativo
Utile netto424 Mln USDAmmortamenti e svalutazioni+199,9 Mln USDCompensi basati su azioni+146,5 Mln USDAltre rettifiche operative−384,2 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo386,2 Mln USD
Riconciliazione della liquidità iniziale e finale
Liquidità iniziale747,8 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo+386,2 Mln USDFlusso da investimenti−37 Mln USDFlusso da finanziamenti−868,4 Mln USDEffetto dei tassi di cambio+24,8 Mln USDLiquidità finale253,4 Mln USD
386,2 Mln USD − 25,3 Mln USDFlusso di cassa libero 360,9 Mln USD
Dati del ponte dei flussi di cassa
Utile netto
424.000.000 USD
Afflusso operativo
770.400.000 USD
Ammortamenti e svalutazioni
199.900.000 USD
Compensi basati su azioni
146.500.000 USD
Flusso di cassa operativo
386.200.000 USD
Deflusso operativo
384.200.000 USD
Liquidità disponibile
1.158.800.000 USD
Liquidità iniziale
747.800.000 USD
Effetto dei tassi di cambio
24.800.000 USD
Deflusso da investimenti
37.000.000 USD
Capex
25.300.000 USD
Altre attività di investimento
11.700.000 USD
Deflusso da finanziamenti
868.400.000 USD
Riacquisti di azioni
863.400.000 USD
Altre attività di finanziamento
5.000.000 USD
Liquidità finale
253.400.000 USD
Flusso da investimenti
-37.000.000 USD
Flusso da finanziamenti
-868.400.000 USD
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota dei ricavi totali per 2026-01-02.
3,6 Mld USDRicavi totali
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota
Field Systems1,5 Mld USD42,9%+0,2% a/a
Architects Engineers Construction And Owners1,5 Mld USD41,8%+10,3% a/a
Transportation And Logistics549,2 Mln USD15,3%−30,4% a/a
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dati sulla composizione dei ricavi: Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi
Quota
a/a
Field Systems
1,5 Mld USD
42,9%
0,2%
Architects Engineers Construction And Owners
1,5 Mld USD
41,8%
10,3%
Transportation And Logistics
549,2 Mln USD
15,3%
-30,4%
Ricavi per area geograficaQuota dei ricavi totali per 2026-01-02.
3,6 Mld USDRicavi totali
Ricavi per area geograficaQuota
North America2,1 Mld USD57,9%−0,1% a/a
Europe1 Mld USD28,5%−2,7% a/a
Asia Pacific349,7 Mln USD9,7%−4,2% a/a
Restof World140,1 Mln USD3,9%−25,9% a/a
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dati sulla composizione dei ricavi: Ricavi per area geografica
Ricavi per area geografica
Ricavi
Quota
a/a
North America
2,1 Mld USD
57,9%
-0,1%
Europe
1 Mld USD
28,5%
-2,7%
Asia Pacific
349,7 Mln USD
9,7%
-4,2%
Restof World
140,1 Mln USD
3,9%
-25,9%
Ricavi e utiliCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
Liquidità e debitoLiquidità disponibile rispetto all’indebitamento totale.
Generazione di cassaFlusso di cassa operativo rispetto al flusso di cassa libero.
RedditivitàEvoluzione dei margini lordo, operativo e netto.
Dati finanziari puntuali utilizzati nell’analisi del 2026-09-20.
Trimble Inc. (TRMB) trades at 13.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.7x compares with a peer median of 18.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Fortive Corporation, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Keysight Technologies Inc. and GitLab Inc., as of 2026-09-20.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Contraction
The specialized instrument and measurement industry exhibits an average capital expenditure to revenue ratio of 5.70% and a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.41x. By contrast, Trimble's cash capital expenditures in FY2025 stood at $25.3M against depreciation of $199.9M, representing a capital expenditure to revenue ratio of 0.71% and reflecting restrained capital deployment following multi-year portfolio restructuring.4
Ciclo rialzista
A cyclical expansion in commercial infrastructure, transportation modernization, and building information modeling adoption accelerates demand for surveying robotics, optical systems, and cloud-native project management software. Strong contractor balance sheets encourage capital expenditure upgrades, driving high-margin field instrument deliveries and expanding recurring software seats.
Ciclo ribassista
Elevated interest rates, delayed commercial construction financing, and European manufacturing contraction lead project owners to postpone capital commitments. Contractors curtail discretionary fleet modernization, suppress equipment orders in Field Systems, and defer software seat expansions.
Trend secolari
Trend
Impatto
Nota
Building Information Modeling and Connected Construction
positive
Global architectural and engineering firms are accelerating the transition from legacy 2D drawings to cloud-connected 3D modeling workflows, boosting demand for AECO subscription platforms such as Tekla and SketchUp.
Civil Infrastructure Automation and Machine Guidance
positive
Skilled labor shortages and project execution tolerances are driving civil contractors to equip earthmoving equipment with automated GNSS positioning and systems.
Posizionamento
Trimble occupies a dual position as an established market provider of precision positioning hardware and an expanding enterprise software provider. While software annual recurring revenue in AECO provides margin stability, the business remains tethered to cyclical construction spending, with Field Systems ($1,539.5M) and Transportation ($549.2M) accounting for 58.2% of consolidated sales.5
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
0%
Trimble is assigned a Sell rating with 0% recommended position weighting because shares trade at $57.56, representing a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value midpoint of $28.25. Capital preservation principles require complete avoidance or liquidation of long positions until valuation reconciles with fundamental cash flows.3
Rischio
Portfolio risk controls require strict position limits and capital preservation discipline. Given Trimble's debt load of $1,459.3M and exposure to civil construction cycles, investors should monitor quarterly operating margin trends and credit ratios closely.
Tranche di ingresso
Livello
Azione
Perché
Below $28.25
Re-underwrite fundamental valuation before considering new entry
Shares must decline below the house Fair value of $28.25 to provide an adequate margin of safety before capital deployment can be evaluated.
Consider initial accumulation if operational turnaround metrics are verified
Trimble trades at 13.57x forward earnings and a 103.8% premium to fundamental Fair value of $28.25, offering no margin of safety and significant downside risk.3
Growth Investor
Avoid
Although AECO generates recurring software revenue, 5-year consolidated revenue CAGR is -0.81% and cyclical hardware exposure limits overall top-line expansion relative to peer benchmarks.5
Income Investor
Avoid
Trimble pays no regular common dividend and prioritizes share buybacks and debt retirement, providing zero direct income yield.3,4
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Vendere
Liquidate existing equity holdings and avoid new capital allocation to Trimble. At $57.56 on September 18, 2026, shares trade at a 103.8% premium to our fundamental Fair value of $28.25 and 47.3% above our Potential value of $39.08.3
While software expansion in AECO improves business quality, cyclical exposure across Field Systems and Transportation leaves 58.2% of revenue vulnerable to construction downturns, rendering the current valuation unsustainable.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Global Construction Contraction and Field Systems Sales Decline
Trimble's 5-year historical revenue CAGR was -0.81%. Field Systems represents $1,539.5M in revenue and European revenue is $1,021.6M. A cyclical downturn reducing growth by 10 percentage points from the FY2027 base forecast of 8.16% results in negative revenue growth below -1.84%.5
FV impact
-26.4%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Cost of Capital Expansion from Debt Refinancing and Market Volatility
Trimble carries total debt of $1,459.3M, having reached $3,188.5M in FY2023, with cash of $253.4M. Its raw beta is 1.4088. A 200 bps increase in cost of capital from base WACC of 9.43% pushes discount rates above 11.43%.1,3,4
Top-line contraction exceeding -1.84% indicates that civil and infrastructure project deferrals are overwhelming recurring software gains across North America and Europe.
Cyclical downturn in non-residential construction and civil engineering spending across North America and Europe
medium
12-18 months
Leveraging expanding recurring annual contract value and international geographic diversification to cushion periodic declines in physical equipment deliveries.
Field Systems maintains stable pricing and unit volumes without discounting against specialized instrument peers.
The Bull scenario carries 15.0% probability, projecting Potential value of $39.08, which corresponds to -32.1% return from $57.56 (as of 2026-09-18). This path assumes accelerated contractor adoption of connected construction ecosystems, driving subscription ARR expansion across AECO and enabling operating leverage to exceed prior peaks without competitive hardware discounting.
Perché è importante
Hardware pricing stability directly impacts consolidated profitability and supplies operating cash flow for digital transformation.
03
Metrica:
European Regional Top-Line Stability
AttualeReflecting subdued regional industrial activity and cautious capital spending across civil contractors.
Perché è importante
European revenue provides geographic breadth, but regional demand weakness creates top-line headwind and currency drag.
Commercial Real Estate and European Construction Softness
negative
Sluggish non-residential construction activity in Europe and North American commercial real estate headwinds create cyclical friction for hardware instrument replacements.
<-5.0% YoY
Re-underwrite hardware durability and reduce segment valuation multiple to 2.5x.
