Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

NYSE: VLO · USD

$388

+1.08 (+0.3%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: VLO rated Sell

Valero Energy Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$315 / share

Potential value

$505 / share

Upside to FV

-22.5%

from $388

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$117.0B
Revenue (ttm)	146.6B
Net income (ttm)	12.9B
EPS (ttm)	$43.7
Shares out	287.9M
P/E (trailing)	8.9x
P/E (forward)	10.2x
Dividend	$4.80 (1.24%)
Volume	2,582,381
Beta	0.59

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 146.6B
Net income (ttm): 12.9B
EPS (ttm): $43.7
P/E (trailing): 8.9x
P/E (forward): 10.2x
Market cap: $117.0B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$113.98B	$176.38B	$144.77B	$129.88B	$122.69B	+1.9%
Gross profit	$3.08B	$16.75B	$12.89B	$4.76B	$5.37B	+14.9%
Operating income	$2.13B	$15.69B	$11.86B	$3.76B	$3.18B	+10.5%
Net income	$930.0M	$11.53B	$8.84B	$2.77B	$2.35B	+26.1%
EPS (diluted)	$2.27	$29.04	$24.92	$8.58	$7.57	+35.1%
EBITDA	$4.55B	$18.34B	$14.66B	$7.03B	$6.72B	+10.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$865.0M	$934.0M	$998.0M	$961.0M	$1.04B	+4.8%

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COP	ConocoPhillips	179B	19.8x	2.8x	11.6%	+16.8%	+73.8%	Mantenere
CVX	Chevron Corporation	448.9B	22.0x	2.2x	8.2%	+12.6%	+54.1%	Ridurre

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$314.88

-22.5% from spot

Valero captures peak cyclical refining earnings in FY2026 supported by robust Gulf Coast throughput and low cash operating expenses of $4.75/bbl. Over the subsequent four years, refining crack spreads normalize toward marginal European hydroskimming economics, driving operating margins down to the 4.0% mid-cycle level. Disciplined capital allocation keeps annual reinvestment between 9.1% and 12.5%, generating solid mid-cycle cash conversion.

Consolidated revenue reaches $150.95B in FY2026 before contracting -13.51% to $130.56B in FY2027
Consolidated EBIT margin peaks at 7.5% in FY2026 and normalizes to 4.0% by FY2030
Full-year 2026 capex steps up to $2.0B, with reinvestment rate normalizing between 9.1% and 12.5%
Terminal multiple of 9.5x P/E discounted under Ke of 7.9732% and terminal growth of 2.0%

Bull20%

Price target

$505.32

+24.4% from spot

Atlantic Basin crack spreads remain structurally elevated as persistent global capacity outages between the Middle East and Russia and prohibitive greenfield replacement costs prevent market oversupply. High Nelson complexity allows Valero to maximize discounted heavy crude processing margins, sustaining elevated refining profitability and strong free cash flow generation for share repurchases.

Atlantic Basin refining capacity outages remain near 5.0 million barrels per day across the Middle East and Russia
Prohibitive new refinery construction costs prevent rapid capacity replacement
Valero captures widened heavy sour crude discounts on Venezuelan and Canadian feeds
Operating margins remain above 5.5% into FY2027 and annual capex stays disciplined near $2.0B

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($314.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	1.8%	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%
7.0%	$344	$354	$365	$378	$392
7.5%	$320	$329	$338	$348	$359
8.0%	$300	$307	$315	$323	$333
8.5%	$283	$289	$296	$303	$310
9.0%	$268	$273	$279	$285	$291

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E10.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E16.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE27.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC43.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All VLO indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

273

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 273 of 273 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001035002
Company name	Valero Energy Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	91913Y100
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	9,811
Employees change	-111
Employees growth	-1.12%
Enterprise value	$115.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1980
In index	SP500
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US91913Y1001
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2005-12-16
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$111.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$388.42
Price currency	USD
Sector	Energy
SIC code	2911
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	VLO
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.valero.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	8.73x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	15.84x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	20.13x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	15.92x
Earnings yield	11.26%
EV/Earnings	8.89x
EV/EBIT	6.43x
EV/EBITDA	5.52x
EV/FCF	11.36x
EV/Sales	0.78x
FCF / EV yield	8.8%
FCF yield	9.08%
Forward EV/Sales	0.75x
Forward P/E	6.2x
Forward P/S	0.73x
Graham number	292.29911
Graham upside	-24.52%
Industry forward P/E	6.12x
Industry P/E	12.2x
Lynch fair value	$284.36
Lynch upside	-26.57%
P/B ratio	4.46x
P/E ratio	8.88x
P/FCF ratio	11.02x
P/OCF ratio	10.22x
P/S ratio	0.76x
PEG ratio	0.14x
Price / tangible book value	4.46x
Price/EBITDA ratio	5.36x
Sector forward P/E	10.06x
Sector P/E	15.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	12.2%
EBITDA margin	14.2%
Effective tax rate	22.42%
FCF margin	7.64%
Gross margin	19.51%
Operating margin	12.2%
Pretax margin	11.92%
Profit margin	8.83%
Profit per employee	$1.3M
Profitable quarters	5
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$14.9M
ROA	10.56%
ROA (5Y)	8.02%
ROCE	22.83%
ROE	27.64%
ROE (5Y)	22.38%
ROIC	43.72%
ROIC (5Y)	18.06%
Tax / revenue	2.67%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	819.48%
EPS growth (Q)	576.77%
EPS growth (QoQ)	89.32%
EPS growth 10Y	24.95%
EPS growth 3Y	14.15%
EPS growth quarters	4
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	202.9%
FCF growth 3Y	2.1%
FCF growth 5Y	75.38%
Gross profit growth	76.14%
Gross profit growth (Q)	343.16%
Gross profit growth 3Y	15.98%
Gross profit growth 5Y	53.77%
Net income growth	765.89%
Net income growth (Q)	523.56%
Net income growth (QoQ)	84.04%
Net income growth 3Y	6.5%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	156.48%
OCF growth 10Y	8.54%
OCF growth 3Y	0.26%
OCF growth 5Y	37.53%
Operating income growth	423.93%
Operating income growth (Q)	441.03%
Operating income growth 3Y	6.6%
Operating income growth 5Y	154.97%
Revenue growth	25.76%
Revenue growth (Q)	51.93%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	7.67%
Revenue growth 10Y	7.99%
Revenue growth 3Y	0.26%
Revenue growth 5Y	10.44%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-788M
Depreciation and amortization	$2.9B
EBIT	$17.9B
EBITDA	$20.8B
EPS	$43.73
FCF per share	$35.15
Financing cash flow	$-5.9B
Free cash flow	$10.1B
Gross profit	$28.6B
Income taxes	$3.9B
Investing cash flow	$-1.6B
Net borrowing	$453M
Net cash flow	$3.3B
Net income	$12.9B
Operating income	$17.9B
Revenue	$146.6B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$86.83
Debt / EBITDA	0.52
Debt / equity	0.4
Debt / FCF	1.12
Interest coverage	31.49
Net cash (debt)	$-3.5B
Net cash / market cap	-3.12%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.17
Net debt / equity	0.12
Net debt / FCF	0.34
Piotroski F-Score	6
Shareholders' equity	$28.3B
Tangible book value	$25B
Tangible book value per share	$86.83
Total cash	$7.9B
Total debt	$11.3B
WACC	7.17%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	2.13
Current ratio	1.64
Inventory turnover	14.65
Quick ratio	1.05
Working capital	$11.9B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	5.76%
Dividend growth	6.05%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.48%
Dividend growth (3Y)	5.4%
Dividend growth (5Y)	3.83%
Dividend growth years	3
Dividend payment date	2026-08-31
Dividend payment years	38
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$4.80
Dividend yield	1.24%
Ex-dividend date	2026-07-31
FCF payout ratio	13.66%
Last dividend	$1.20
Payout ratio	10.98%
Shareholder yield	7%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	564.09%
10Y return CAGR	25.57%
10Y total return	874.15%
150-day SMA	$309.45
15Y price change	1,388.38%
15Y return CAGR	24.65%
15Y total return	2,625.12%
1D price change	0.28%
1M price change	0.87%
1M total return	0.87%
1W price change	-9.89%
1W total return	-9.89%
1Y price change	124%
1Y return CAGR	128.88%
1Y total return	128.75%
20-day SMA	$427.48
200-day SMA	$283.64
20Y price change	635.78%
20Y return CAGR	14.31%
20Y total return	1,350.21%
3M price change	28.08%
3M total return	28.57%
3Y price change	216.08%
3Y return CAGR	50.83%
3Y total return	243.25%
50-day SMA	$395.72
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$461.52
52-week high date	2026-10-14
52-week low	$159.90
52-week low date	2025-12-17
5Y price change	396.44%
5Y return CAGR	42.11%
5Y total return	479.54%
6M price change	63.92%
6M total return	65.34%
After-hours change	-0.05%
After-hours close	$388.42
After-hours price	$388.21
All-time high	$461.52
All-time high date	2026-10-14
All-time low	$1.13
All-time low date	1987-10-27
Average true range (ATR)	$18.35
Average volume	2.5M
Beta (1Y)	-1.06
Beta (2Y)	0.57
Beta (5Y)	0.59
Change from 52-week high	-15.84%
Change from 52-week low	142.91%
Change from all-time high	-15.38%
Change from all-time low	34,615.56%
Change from open	-0.93%
Day's gap	1.22%
Dollar volume	$1B
High price	$394.00
Low price	$380.81
Monthly RSI	87.06
Open price	$392.05
Position in 52-week range	57.7%
Premarket change	1.14%
Premarket close	$387.34
Premarket price	$391.77
Premarket volume	7.3K
Previous close	$387.34
Price vs 150-day SMA	26.21%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-8.64%
Price vs 200-day SMA	37.69%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-1.31%
Relative volume	1.04
RSI	40.31
Sharpe ratio	2.26
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.19
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	1.01
Sortino ratio	3.75
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.92
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.64
Volume	2.6M
Weekly RSI	62.54
YTD price change	139.91%
YTD total return	143.46%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	286.4M
Float percentage	99.47%
Shares change (QoQ)	-3.06%
Shares change (YoY)	-5.76%
Shares held by insiders	0.43%
Shares held by institutions	86.49%
Shares outstanding	287.9M
Short % of float	3.14%
Short % of shares	3.13%
Short ratio	2.3 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	337

Deeper analysis on VLO

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this VLO report

What is the latest published VLO stock rating?

Valero Energy Corporation is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full VLO analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/VLO/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for VLO?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives VLO a fair value of USD 315 and a potential value of USD 505. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the VLO page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellVLO · Fair value $315-22.5%

Read full analysis →

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Our latest published analysis: VLO rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · VLO

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All VLO indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on VLO

Frequently asked questions

Storico dei rating

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5