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CMCSA trades against a final fair-value range of $91.52-$153.58, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $91.5, high $154, with mid-point at $121.
Stock analysis

CMCSA fair value $92–$154

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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株価
$24.80
▲ +95.95 (+386.90%)
公正価値
$121
$92–$154
評価
強い買い
confidence 80/100
上昇余地
+386.9%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$102.64
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$88.6B
P/E fwd 6.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $121 with high case $154.
  • Implied upside of 386.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 80/100 · Turnaround.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$121
Margin of safety
+79.5%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$24.80Price
Low $91.52
Mid $120.75
High $153.58

CMCSA trades against a final fair-value range of $91.52-$153.58, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with
    Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement cost
  • Universal Theme Parks physical footprint
    Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integration
  • Bull thesis
    The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.

§2 ベアケース

A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated cord-cutting tests Comcast's highly leveraged balance sheet ($98.9B total debt). At an Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA composite bankruptcy-risk model. Above 3.0 is the safe zone; below 1.8 is the distress zone. Mostly relevant for capital-intensive non-financial firms. of 1.44, distress-adjacent risks materialize if operating cash flows break below maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct. requirements (historically 11.5% of revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.), forcing dividend cuts or distressed asset sales.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

FWA Total Disruption

· Medium

Fixed Wireless Access permanently alters broadband pricing power, causing sustained subscriber losses and collapsing broadband margins.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Debt Maturity Squeeze

· Medium

Higher-for-longer interest rates force refinancing of the $98.9B debt load at punitive yields, overwhelming free cash flow generation.

FV impact
-55%
Trigger
24 to 36 months

Linear Runoff Acceleration

· High

Legacy video and broadcast revenue declines accelerate beyond the modeled 1.6% contraction, dragging consolidated enterprise EBITDA down structurally.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Immediate
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Consolidated FCFF falling materially below the $25B baseline trajectory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex structurally exceeding 11.5% of revenue to defend network.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cost of equity rising above the modeled 7.4% due to balance sheet distress.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF to Net Income ratio contracting below historical 1.68x levels.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Peacock operating losses failing to narrow despite subscriber acquisition.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$121.43B$121.57B$123.73B$123.71B+0.6%
売上総利益$83.21B$84.81B$86.71B$88.76B+2.2%
営業利益$22.62B$23.31B$23.30B$20.67B-3.0%
純利益$5.37B$15.39B$16.19B$20.00B+55.0%
EPS (希薄化後)$1.21$3.71$4.14$5.39+64.5%
EBITDA$27.00B$38.90B$37.61B$46.39B+19.8%
研究開発—————
販管費$8.51B$7.97B$8.07B$8.86B+1.4%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
8 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
1.45
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.71
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
1.68×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
12.2%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

CMCSA reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for CMCSA (CMCSA) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

CMCSA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CMCSA looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $24.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $121 (range $91.5–$154), which implies roughly 386.9% upside to the midpoint.

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