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JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple. Fair value range: low $31.8, high $56.4, with mid-point at $44.1.
Stock analysis

JD fair value $32–$56

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$32.38
▲ +11.69 (+36.10%)
公正価値
$44
$32–$56
評価
強い買い
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
+36.1%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$37.46
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$43.7B
P/E fwd 7.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Highly defensible owned-logistics network supports FCF visibility.
  • Price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth.
  • Discounted 12x terminal multiple prices in structural China risks.
  • 36.1% upside to $44.07 base case fair value target.
Fair value
$44
Margin of safety
+26.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$32.38Price
Low $31.76
Mid $44.07
High $56.43

JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.

  • Owned-logistics network
    Owned-logistics network
  • Supply chain scale
    Supply chain scale
  • Bull thesis
    Composite fair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.

§2 ベアケース

Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode margins, causing revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. to stagnate and structural multiple compression.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

PDD price war escalation

· High

Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.

FV impact
Downside to $31.76
Trigger
12-24 months

China macro stagnation

· Medium

Persistent deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer demand prevent top-line recovery.

FV impact
Terminal multiple compression to 10x
Trigger
1-3 years

Regulatory shifts

· Low

Unfavorable regulatory actions affecting ADRs or Chinese internet platforms.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
Unpredictable
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Sequential decline in operating margin below 3.5%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market share loss to PDD in core categoriesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in revenue growth below 3%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in fulfillment costs eroding logistics advantageMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Weakness in consumer discretionary spending metricsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$1,046.24B$1,084.66B$1,158.82B$1,309.09B+7.8%
売上総利益$147.07B$159.70B$183.87B$210.03B+12.6%
営業利益$18.34B$28.91B$39.57B$3.69B-41.4%
純利益$10.38B$24.17B$41.36B$19.63B+23.7%
EPS (希薄化後)$6.42$15.22$26.86$12.90+26.2%
EBITDA$23.21B$42.82B$63.34B$37.87B+17.7%
研究開発$16.89B$16.39B$17.03B$22.23B+9.6%
販管費$48.83B$49.84B$56.84B$95.93B+25.2%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
5 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
2.37
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.52
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
0.97×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
6.7%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVENUE FAQ

JD revenue questions

  1. JD (JD)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

JD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, JD looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $32.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $44.1 (range $31.8–$56.4), which implies roughly 36.1% upside to the midpoint.

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