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JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple. Fair value range: low $31.8, high $56.4, with mid-point at $44.1.
Stock analysis

JD fair value $32–$56

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$32.38
▲ +11.69 (+36.10%)
公正価値
$44
$32–$56
評価
強い買い
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
+36.1%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$37.46
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$43.7B
P/E fwd 7.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Highly defensible owned-logistics network supports FCF visibility.
  • Price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth.
  • Discounted 12x terminal multiple prices in structural China risks.
  • 36.1% upside to $44.07 base case fair value target.
Fair value
$44
Margin of safety
+26.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$32.38Price
Low $31.76
Mid $44.07
High $56.43

JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.

  • Owned-logistics network
    Owned-logistics network
  • Supply chain scale
    Supply chain scale
  • Bull thesis
    Composite fair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.

§2 ベアケース

Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode margins, causing revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. to stagnate and structural multiple compression.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

PDD price war escalation

· High

Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.

FV impact
Downside to $31.76
Trigger
12-24 months

China macro stagnation

· Medium

Persistent deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer demand prevent top-line recovery.

FV impact
Terminal multiple compression to 10x
Trigger
1-3 years

Regulatory shifts

· Low

Unfavorable regulatory actions affecting ADRs or Chinese internet platforms.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
Unpredictable
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Sequential decline in operating margin below 3.5%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market share loss to PDD in core categoriesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in revenue growth below 3%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in fulfillment costs eroding logistics advantageMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Weakness in consumer discretionary spending metricsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$1,046.24B$1,084.66B$1,158.82B$1,309.09B+7.8%
売上総利益$147.07B$159.70B$183.87B$210.03B+12.6%
営業利益$18.34B$28.91B$39.57B$3.69B-41.4%
純利益$10.38B$24.17B$41.36B$19.63B+23.7%
EPS (希薄化後)$6.42$15.22$26.86$12.90+26.2%
EBITDA$23.21B$42.82B$63.34B$37.87B+17.7%
研究開発$16.89B$16.39B$17.03B$22.23B+9.6%
販管費$48.83B$49.84B$56.84B$95.93B+25.2%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
5 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
2.37
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.52
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
0.97×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
6.7%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

JD reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for JD (JD) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

JD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, JD looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $32.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $44.1 (range $31.8–$56.4), which implies roughly 36.1% upside to the midpoint.

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