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The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows. Fair value range: low $77.2, high $122, with mid-point at $99.5.
Stock analysis

KO The Coca-Cola Company fair value $99–$122

KO
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-08次回更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Consumer Staples
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株価
$78.33
▲ +21.13 (+26.98%)
公正価値
$99
$99–$122
評価
強い買い
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
+27.0%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$84.54
buy below · 15%
時価総額
$337.0B
P/E fwd 22.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Unparalleled wide moat supporting consistent ROIC (~18%).
  • Fair value midpoint of $99.46 implies nearly 27% upside.
  • Pricing power neutralizes near-term CSD volume sluggishness.
  • Weak OCF/NI conversion warrants monitoring but terminal stability is intact.
Fair value
$99
Margin of safety
+21.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$78.33Price
FV $99.46
High $121.75

The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows.

  • Cycle upside
    Late-cycle pricing capture masks volume softness.

§2 ベアケース

Secular volume declines accelerate beyond pricing power elasticity, combined with persistent FX headwinds that permanently compress international returns and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate..

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Health Trend Acceleration

20%· Medium

Accelerated secular shifts away from carbonated soft drinks permanently compress volume growth.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Persistent FX Headwinds

30%· Medium

Strong USD and emerging market volatility structurally erode translated earnings and returns.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years

Input Cost Margin Squeeze

15%· Low

Unhedged agricultural and packaging inflation outpaces pricing elasticity, crushing gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Consecutive quarters of declining organic volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 58%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin slipping below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to scale Costa Coffee and RTD alcohol.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Persistent deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$38.66B$43.00B$45.75B$47.06B$47.94B+5.5%
売上総利益$23.30B$25.00B$27.23B$28.74B$29.54B+6.1%
営業利益$11.04B$12.04B$13.10B$14.02B$14.91B+7.8%
純利益$9.77B$9.54B$10.71B$10.63B$13.11B+7.6%
EPS (希薄化後)$2.19$2.47$2.46$3.04+8.5%
EBITDA$15.47B$13.83B$15.61B$15.82B$18.70B+4.9%
研究開発
販管費$12.14B$12.88B$13.97B$14.58B$14.52B+4.6%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
7 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
5.07
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.35
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
0.57×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
18.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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24か月分の評価アーカイブ
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FAQ

KO — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest independent analysis, KO looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $78.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $99.5 (range $77.2–$122), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.
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Same archetype: mature-compounder
Same sector: Consumer Staples