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§ Growth and forecasting

Revenue growth

Year-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible.

Formula
Revenue growth = (Revenue_t − Revenue_t-1) / Revenue_t-1

Revenue growth is the year-over-year change in top-line revenue, the starting point for any forward-earnings model. The headline number is rarely the most informative part: revenue growth is an aggregate of price, volume, mix, and currency effects, and the same 12% revenue growth can be decomposed into very different stories — price-only growth (high-quality, sustainable), volume-only growth in a saturating market (lower-quality, deceleration ahead), or mix-driven growth (sustainable if the mix shift continues, transient if it normalizes). We decompose growth into organic versus acquired, constant-currency versus reported, and price versus volume wherever disclosure allows. The deceleration profile matters as much as the level: a 30% grower decelerating at five points per year is on a different trajectory than a 30% grower decelerating at fifteen points per year, and the implied terminal multiple differs substantially.

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