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CMCSA trades against a final fair-value range of $91.52-$153.58, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $91.5, high $154, with mid-point at $121.
Stock analysis

CMCSA fair value $92–$154

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-20다음 업데이트: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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주가
$24.80
▲ +95.95 (+386.90%)
공정 가치
$121
$92–$154
등급
적극 매수
confidence 80/100
상승 여력
+386.9%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$102.64
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$88.6B
P/E fwd 6.5
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $121 with high case $154.
  • Implied upside of 386.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 80/100 · Turnaround.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$121
Margin of safety
+79.5%
Confidence
80/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$24.80Price
Low $91.52
Mid $120.75
High $153.58

CMCSA trades against a final fair-value range of $91.52-$153.58, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with
    Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement cost
  • Universal Theme Parks physical footprint
    Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integration
  • Bull thesis
    The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.

§2 베어 케이스

A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated cord-cutting tests Comcast's highly leveraged balance sheet ($98.9B total debt). At an Altman Z-ScoreAltman Z-ScoreA composite bankruptcy-risk model. Above 3.0 is the safe zone; below 1.8 is the distress zone. Mostly relevant for capital-intensive non-financial firms. of 1.44, distress-adjacent risks materialize if operating cash flows break below maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct. requirements (historically 11.5% of revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.), forcing dividend cuts or distressed asset sales.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

FWA Total Disruption

· Medium

Fixed Wireless Access permanently alters broadband pricing power, causing sustained subscriber losses and collapsing broadband margins.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Debt Maturity Squeeze

· Medium

Higher-for-longer interest rates force refinancing of the $98.9B debt load at punitive yields, overwhelming free cash flow generation.

FV impact
-55%
Trigger
24 to 36 months

Linear Runoff Acceleration

· High

Legacy video and broadcast revenue declines accelerate beyond the modeled 1.6% contraction, dragging consolidated enterprise EBITDA down structurally.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Immediate
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Consolidated FCFF falling materially below the $25B baseline trajectory.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex structurally exceeding 11.5% of revenue to defend network.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cost of equity rising above the modeled 7.4% due to balance sheet distress.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF to Net Income ratio contracting below historical 1.68x levels.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Peacock operating losses failing to narrow despite subscriber acquisition.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$121.43B$121.57B$123.73B$123.71B+0.6%
매출총이익$83.21B$84.81B$86.71B$88.76B+2.2%
영업이익$22.62B$23.31B$23.30B$20.67B-3.0%
순이익$5.37B$15.39B$16.19B$20.00B+55.0%
EPS (희석)$1.21$3.71$4.14$5.39+64.5%
EBITDA$27.00B$38.90B$37.61B$46.39B+19.8%
R&D—————
판관비$8.51B$7.97B$8.07B$8.86B+1.4%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
8 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
1.45
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.71
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
1.68×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
12.2%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CMCSA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CMCSA looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $24.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $121 (range $91.5–$154), which implies roughly 386.9% upside to the midpoint.

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