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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-10다음 업데이트: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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주가
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
공정 가치
$201
$201–$274
등급
매도
confidence 82/100
상승 여력
-62.0%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$170.60
buy below · 15%
시가총액
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 베어 케이스

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
매출$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
매출총이익$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
영업이익$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M
순이익$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M
EPS (희석)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M
R&D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
판관비$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
4 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
12.78
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.95
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
-9.92
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Fail
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
-0.0%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.
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