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Bull: RNAi becomes the standard of care for massive prevalent indications like hypertension and obesity.
The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.
Alnylam is the pioneer in RNAi therapeutics, actively inflecting into sustained GAAP profitability. With a $665.75 base case fair value (+128% upside), the risk-reward is heavily skewed positive as the pipeline expands from rare to prevalent indications, validating its hyper-growth compounder archetype.
Alnylam is the pioneer in RNAi therapeutics, actively inflecting into sustained GAAP profitability. With a $665.75 base case fair value (+128% upside), the risk-reward is heavily skewed positive as the pipeline expands from rare to prevalent indications, validating its hyper-growth compounder archetype.
First-mover advantage and foundational IP in RNA interference.
Established commercial infrastructure across global rare disease markets.
The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.
Strong Buy. Alnylam's commercial inflection and validated platform moat easily bridge the gap to a $665 fair value, overriding current SBC drags.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes therapeutics based on ribonucleic acid interference in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers ONPATTRO for hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis; AMVUTTRA for ATTR and hATTR amyloidosis; Leqvio for hypercholesterolemia; Qfitlia for hemophilia A or B; GIVLAARI for acute hepatic porphyria; and OXLUMO for primary hyperoxaluria type 1. It also develops a range of products in Phase 3 trial, such as Nucresiran for ATTR amyloidosis; Zilebesiran for hypertension; Cemdisiran for myasthenia gravis, paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, and geographic atrophy; and Elebsiran for hepatitis D virus infections. In addition, the company is developing various products in Phase 2 trial, including Rapirosiran for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; ALN-ANG3 for diabetic kidney disease; ALN-4324 for type 2 diabetes mellitus; Mivelsiran for cerebral amyloid angiopathy, as well as in Phase 1 trial for Alzheimer's disease; and ALN-6400 for bleeding disorders. Further, it develops a range of products in Phase 1 trial, such as ALN-2232 for obesity and weight management; ALN-PNP for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; ALN-APOC3 for dyslipidemia; ALN-CIDEB for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; ALN-HTT02 for Huntington's disease; ALN-5288 for Alzheimer's disease; ALN-SOD for SOD1 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; ALN-SNCA for Parkinson's disease; AG-236 for polycythemia vera; ALN-CFB for paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria; ALN-BCAT for hepatocellular carcinoma; and ALN-4285, ALN-4915, and ALN-F1202 for healthy volunteers. The company has collaborations with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Roche Holding AG; Sanofi S.A.; Novartis AG; PeptiDream, Inc; Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; and Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Under an extreme stress test where the prevalent disease pipeline yields zero commercial value, ALNY reverts to a mature rare-disease biotech. This drops terminal multiples to 15x and compresses peak margins to 25%, resulting in our $387 bear case floor.
Clinical failures in mass-market indications force ALNY to rely solely on its existing rare disease portfolio, compressing its multiple to match mature, slower-growth biotechs.
Key prevalent indication readouts, such as hypertension or obesity, fail to show superiority, restricting TAM strictly to rare diseases.
IRA and competitive pressure limit peak operating margins below the projected 35%, trapping the firm in a lower-return profile.
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
Failure in late-stage prevalent disease clinical trials restricts commercial expansion strictly to niche rare-disease markets. Eliminating large cardiovascular indications caps long-term total addressable market potential, forcing terminal multiple contraction and lowering peak revenue expectations.
Huidig:Active clinical development pipeline as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Waarschuwing alsFiled clinical trial failure or lack of statistical superiority in Phase 3 Zilebesiran readouts within any 12-month period
First-mover advantage and foundational IP in RNA interference.
Established commercial infrastructure across global rare disease markets.
High switching costs for patients maintained on chronic silencing therapies.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $559.0M after capex $55.7M, with terminal value at 81.0% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
RNAi becomes the standard of care for massive prevalent indications like hypertension and obesity. Operating margins blow past 35% due to hyper-scale manufacturing efficiencies.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Monitor earnings quality, guidance, and valuation-sensitive operating metrics.
Warning level: Filed clinical trial failure or lack of statistical superiority in Phase 3 Zilebesiran readouts within any 12-month period. Failure in late-stage prevalent disease clinical trials restricts commercial expansion strictly to niche rare-disease markets. Eliminating large cardiovascular indications caps long-term total addressable market potential, forcing terminal multiple contraction and lowering peak revenue expectations.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Omzet | 3.713.937.000 |
|---|---|
| Kostprijs van de omzet | 681.871.000 |
| Brutowinst | 3.032.066.000 |
| Bedrijfskosten | 2.530.488.000 |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | 501.578.000 |
| Niet-operationele posten en belastingen | -187.831.000 |
| Nettowinst | 313.747.000 |
| Totale activa | 4.966.331.000 |
|---|---|
| Liquide middelen | 1.657.250.000 |
| Vlottende activa | 4.050.662.000 |
| Totale verplichtingen | 4.177.155.000 |
| Kortlopende verplichtingen | 1.466.349.000 |
| Eigen vermogen | 789.176.000 |
Financiële momentopname gebruikt in de analyse van 2026-05-13.
| Periode | Omzet | EBITDA | Nettowinst | Operationele kasstroom | Vrije kasstroom | Investeringen | Afschrijvingen en amortisatie | Aandelenbeloning | Aandeleninkoop | Betaalde dividenden | Netto schuldemissie | Investeringskasstroom | Financieringskasstroom | Beginstand liquide middelen | Eindstand liquide middelen | Kas en beleggingen | Totale schuld | Operationele marge | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC-spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | 1 mld. | -926,6 mln. | -1,1 mld. | -541,3 mln. | -613,3 mln. | 72,1 mln. | 44,5 mln. | 230,6 mln. | — | — | 254 mln. | — | — | — | — | 866,4 mln. | 1,3 mld. | -75,7% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 1,8 mld. | -258,2 mln. | -440,2 mln. | 104,2 mln. | 41,9 mln. | 62,2 mln. | 54,1 mln. | 221,7 mln. | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 812,7 mln. | 1,3 mld. | -15,4% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 2,2 mld. | -178,8 mln. | -278,2 mln. | -8,3 mln. | -42,6 mln. | 34,3 mln. | 56,7 mln. | 272,1 mln. | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 966,4 mln. | 1,3 mld. | -7,9% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 3,7 mld. | 631,4 mln. | 313,7 mln. | 524,1 mln. | 465,4 mln. | 58,7 mln. | 55,7 mln. | 348,2 mln. | — | — | -544,5 mln. | — | — | — | — | 1,7 mld. | 1,3 mld. | 13,5% | — | — | — |
ALNY trades at 21.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.4x; EV/EBITDA of 48.3x against a peer median of 15.4x; 6 peers.
Industry cycle positioning is described in the generated report.
Biotech capital markets rewarding commercial execution over pure pipeline promise. Regulatory acceptance of RNAi as a validated, safe modality.
Drug pricing scrutiny under IRA limiting mass-market reimbursement. Capital flight from long-duration biotech assets.
Industry cycle positioning is described in the generated report.
Use normal position sizing discipline for the rating and risk profile.
Reassess or exit if the core thesis breaks.
The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.
internal valuation cross-checks ($449) fail to capture the terminal value of the prevalent disease pipeline.
Strong Buy. Alnylam is crossing the profitability chasm with immense operating leverage. The validated RNAi platform de-risks the pipeline, justifying our $665 fair value based on 35% peak margins and a 25x terminal multiple.
Downside case: The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
CRISPR and base editing therapies permanently cure indications ALNY currently manages chronically, destroying chronic recurring revenue streams.
Inability to achieve projected operating leverage indicates structural cost rigidity or aggressive pricing resistance from payers. Capping operating margin expansion traps the business in a lower return profile, reducing free cash flow conversion and compressing long-term valuation multiples.
Huidig:13.5% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Waarschuwing als< 25.0% over any fiscal year
A sharp deceleration in top-line growth while research spending expands erodes operating margins and depletes reinvestment capital. Growth slowdowns expose high operational overhead, undermining the core narrative that massive sales scaling will continually deliver operating leverage.
Huidig:65.2% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Waarschuwing als< 15.0% year-over-year over any fiscal year
One-time curative genetic medicines could permanently disrupt chronic RNAi treatment models by eliminating lifelong dosing requirements. Loss of addressable patient populations in key indications would permanently impair recurring revenue visibility and collapse long-term terminal franchise value.
Huidig:Leading RNAi chronic administration franchise as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Waarschuwing als>= 1 regulatory approval granted for a one-time curative gene-editing therapy in shared indications over any 12-month period
Regulatory restrictions or safety setbacks on extra-hepatic delivery platforms would derail pipeline expansion into CNS and ocular indications. Impeded clinical execution diminishes capital returns, stalling new revenue drivers and compressing returns across invested research assets.
Huidig:22.0% as of the 2026-05-13 analysis date
Waarschuwing als< 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
Under the moderate discount rate, US$ 110 comes from forecast-period earnings and US$ 303 from the long-term value, totaling US$ 413.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
ALNY successfully bridges its rare disease dominance into prevalent markets, achieving extreme operating leverage and commanding a premium platform multiple.
Warning level: < 25.0% over any fiscal year. Inability to achieve projected operating leverage indicates structural cost rigidity or aggressive pricing resistance from payers. Capping operating margin expansion traps the business in a lower return profile, reducing free cash flow conversion and compressing long-term valuation multiples.
Warning level: < 15.0% year-over-year over any fiscal year. A sharp deceleration in top-line growth while research spending expands erodes operating margins and depletes reinvestment capital. Growth slowdowns expose high operational overhead, undermining the core narrative that massive sales scaling will continually deliver operating leverage.
Warning level: >= 1 regulatory approval granted for a one-time curative gene-editing therapy in shared indications over any 12-month period. One-time curative genetic medicines could permanently disrupt chronic RNAi treatment models by eliminating lifelong dosing requirements. Loss of addressable patient populations in key indications would permanently impair recurring revenue visibility and collapse long-term terminal franchise value.
Warning level: < 10.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Regulatory restrictions or safety setbacks on extra-hepatic delivery platforms would derail pipeline expansion into CNS and ocular indications. Impeded clinical execution diminishes capital returns, stalling new revenue drivers and compressing returns across invested research assets.
| Marge |
|---|
| ALNY | Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $39.0B | 21.0x | 9.1x | 48.3x | — | — |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 20.8x | 9.3x | 21.8x | 24.2% | 38.1% | |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 13.4x | 5.1x | 15.4x | 14.5% | 20.7% | |
| MRNA | Moderna Inc. | -12.8x | 9.5x | -7.5x | -36.6% | -131.1% | |
| INCY | Incyte Corporation | 11.0x | 3.7x | 10.2x | 30.8% | 25.6% | |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 22.9x | 6.1x | 20.5x | 5.3% | 25.2% |
