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BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-09Volgende update: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
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Koers
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Fair value
$126
$126–$179
Beoordeling
Aanhouden
confidence 78/100
Opwaarts potentieel
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4
Engelse bronNL
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Berenscenario

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Omzet$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Brutowinst
Bedrijfsresultaat
Nettowinst$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
WPA (verwaterd)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA
R&D
VAA$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Kwaliteitsscores

OCF / Nettowinst
1.54×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Fail
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.
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