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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MDT — frequently asked questions
Is Medtronic plc overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-12, MDT looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 76,8 versus our fair value of USD 95,9; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 114. That implies roughly 24.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-12, gives MDT a fair value of USD 95,9 and a potential value of USD 114. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Medtronic plc's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MDT now?
Our latest published rating for MDT, analyzed 2026-05-12, is Buy. Medtronic plc looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of USD 76,8 versus fair value of USD 95,9; potential value is USD 114. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MDT?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-12 documents Medtronic plc's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MDT's rating?
Our latest published rating for MDT, analyzed 2026-05-12, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of USD 95,9, the potential value of USD 114, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 76,8).
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§1 SamenvattingEN
Antwoord in 30 secondenBuy
Koers versus waarde
Koers
$76.82
Reële waarde
$95.89
Potentiële waarde
$113.75
Per
Koersdatum niet vastgelegd
Waarom het kan werken
Bull: Successful launch and rapid adoption of new therapies reignite mid-single-digit top-line growth, driving operating leverage and margin expansion.
Wat onze visie zou veranderen
Pipeline Stagnation: Regulatory and clinical trial setbacks for Cardiovascular and Diabetes pipelines stall product cycles, allowing competitors to permanently seize market share.
Medtronic is a dominant, entrenched player in the global medical devices industry. While near-term growth is sluggish and quarterly earnings are compressed, its immense scale, high switching costs for healthcare providers, and reliable free cash flow easily support a high dividend payout, fitting the classic mature dividend archetype.
Medtronic is a dominant, entrenched player in the global medical devices industry. While near-term growth is sluggish and quarterly earnings are compressed, its immense scale, high switching costs for healthcare providers, and reliable free cash flow easily support a high dividend payout, fitting the classic mature dividend archetype.
Buy. Medtronic's deeply entrenched portfolio and cash generation capabilities are severely undervalued by a market fixated on near-term trailing stagnation.
Bedrijfsoverzicht
Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products. The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems and sensors, and InPen, a smart insulin pen. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.
§2 BerenscenarioEN
A prolonged period of sluggish top-line growth combined with intense pricing pressure and hospital capital constraints severely compresses operating margins below the 19.5% baseline, threatening Medtronic's reliable free cash flow and forcing a cut to its high dividend payout.
Intense competition and pricing pressure erode gross margins, threatening the dividend growth trajectory and resulting in severe multiple compression.
Hoe deze these kan breken
Pipeline Stagnation
Medium
Regulatory and clinical trial setbacks for Cardiovascular and Diabetes pipelines stall product cycles, allowing competitors to permanently seize market share.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months
Hospital Capital Freeze
Low
Macroeconomic pressures force severe hospital capital constraints and widespread deferral of elective procedures, crushing revenue growth to negative territory.
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
De vijf ontwikkelingen die onze beleggingsthese zouden verzwakken.
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Conform
Hold
Trigger: In-line results
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Gemist
Reassess
Trigger: Downside surprise
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Winstkwaliteit
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Meest recente omzet33,5 mld.Omzet-CAGR +1,9%
Operationele marge19,5%4 boekjaarperioden
Meest recente vrije kasstroom5,2 mld.FY2025
Nettoschuld26,3 mld.FY2025
Uitsplitsing van de resultatenrekeningHoe bedrijfsschaal wordt omgezet in gerapporteerde winst.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Omzet33,5 mld.Kostprijs van de omzet−11,6 mld.Brutowinst21,9 mld.Bedrijfskosten−15,4 mld.Bedrijfsresultaat6,5 mld.Niet-operationele posten en belastingen−1,9 mld.Nettowinst4,7 mld.
Financiële historische gegevens
Omzet
33.537.000.000
Kostprijs van de omzet
11.632.000.000
Brutowinst
21.905.000.000
Bedrijfskosten
15.365.000.000
Bedrijfsresultaat
6.540.000.000
Niet-operationele posten en belastingen
-1.878.000.000
Nettowinst
4.662.000.000
Momentopname van de balansHoe de gerapporteerde activa in de geselecteerde periode worden aangehouden en gefinancierd.
Healthcare system capital spending constraints and deferred procedures delay volume recovery.
Positionering
High dividend payout limits aggressive M&A, forcing reliance on internal R&D and pipeline execution.
§11 PositiebeheerEN
Positiegrootte
Core holding given mature dividend archetype and low downside risk.
Risico
Re-evaluate if capex/revenue structurally disconnects or if forward revenue estimates drop below 1.5%.
Entree-tranches
Niveau
Actie
Waarom
Current / pullbacks
Exit-tranches
Niveau
Actie
Thesis break
Re-evaluate if capex/revenue structurally disconnects or if forward revenue estimates drop below 1.5%.
§12 BeleggersperspectievenEN
Bull view
Buy
Buy. The current share price fails to credit the immense durability of Medtronic's free cash flow engine, providing a large margin of safety against sluggish top-line growth.
Base view
Buy
The 1.73% implied growth hurdle from the Reverse DCF confirms extreme market pessimism. Our multi-model synthesis relies heavily on structural cash generation to bypass near-term trailing noise.
§14 EindaanbevelingEN
Actie
Kopen
Buy. The current share price fails to credit the immense durability of Medtronic's free cash flow engine, providing a large margin of safety against sluggish top-line growth.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Sub-par capital efficiency indicates that elevated capital outlays are failing to produce accretive operating profits. Generating returns below the corporate hurdle rate erodes economic value and restricts capital redeployment toward high-growth medtech innovations, weakening long-term competitive differentiation.
Huidig:6.6% as of 2026-05-12
Waarschuwing alsROIC declines below 5.0% over a twelve-month period
Persistent margin degradation reflects an inability to offset customer pricing pressure and medical inflation through cost containment. Compressing operating margins directly reduces free cash flow generation, eliminating bottom-line operating leverage and endangering the company's valuation multiple relative to peers.
Huidig:19.5% for the period ended 2025-04-30
Waarschuwing alsOperating margin falls below 19.5% over two consecutive fiscal quarters
Escalating cash commitment to shareholder payouts leaves little cushion against revenuevolatility or unexpected clinical liabilities. Exceeding sustainable cash boundaries forces either an outright dividend reduction or debt-funded shareholder returns, destroying the core defensive income thesis and triggering severe multiple compression.
Major regulatory or clinical setbacks freeze critical product launch cycles in high-margin growth categories. Failing to refresh innovative offerings allows agile competitors to permanently capture market share, undermining premium pricing power and eliminating key anticipated drivers of mid-single-digit top-line acceleration.
Huidig:Active pipeline development programs as of 2026-05-12
Waarschuwing als1 or more formal FDA rejections or Phase 3 clinical trial terminations in Cardiovascular or Diabetes pipelines within a 12-month period
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Regulatory delays stalling product cycles.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Warning level: ROIC declines below 5.0% over a twelve-month period. Sub-par capital efficiency indicates that elevated capital outlays are failing to produce accretive operating profits. Generating returns below the corporate hurdle rate erodes economic value and restricts capital redeployment toward high-growth medtech innovations, weakening long-term competitive differentiation.
Warning level: Dividend payout ratio exceeds 90% of free cash flow over an annual period. Escalating cash commitment to shareholder payouts leaves little cushion against revenuevolatility or unexpected clinical liabilities. Exceeding sustainable cash boundaries forces either an outright dividend reduction or debt-funded shareholder returns, destroying the core defensive income thesis and triggering severe multiple compression.
05
Metriek:
Cardiovascular and Diabetes Clinical Approvals
HuidigActive pipeline development programs as of 2026-05-12
Waarom het ertoe doet
Warning level: 1 or more formal FDA rejections or Phase 3 clinical trial terminations in Cardiovascular or Diabetes pipelines within a 12-month period. Major regulatory or clinical setbacks freeze critical product launch cycles in high-margin growth categories. Failing to refresh innovative offerings allows agile competitors to permanently capture market share, undermining premium pricing power and eliminating key anticipated drivers of mid-single-digit top-line acceleration.
