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Moderna is undergoing a high-risk transition. Following the collapse of its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, it is absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses as it sustains a massive $3.1B R&D engine. The base case assumes its validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters (RSV, CMV, personalized oncology) to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade. Fair value range: low $41.7, high $78.8, with mid-point at $58.3.
Stock analysis

MRNA fair value $42–$79

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-13Volgende update: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Koers
$53.27
▲ +5.03 (+9.44%)
Fair value
$58
$42–$79
Beoordeling
Aanhouden
confidence 54/100
Opwaarts potentieel
+9.4%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$49.55
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$21.1B
P/E fwd 0.0
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Pre-profit growth archetype facing immense revenue cliff transition.
  • Fair value of $58.30 anchored to 8x terminal EV/Rev multiple based on platform potential.
  • Cash burn ($2.07B FCF trailing) presents near-term liquidity and dilution risks.
  • Hold rating maintained due to binary FDA approval risks balancing out pipeline optionality.
Fair value
$58
Margin of safety
+8.6%
Confidence
54/100
Moat
3/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$53.27Price
Low $41.68
Mid $58.30
High $78.75

Moderna is undergoing a high-risk transition. Following the collapse of its COVID-19 vaccine revenues, it is absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses as it sustains a massive $3.1B R&D engine. The base case assumes its validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters (RSV, CMV, personalized oncology) to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade.

  • Validated mRNA platform with rapid
    Validated mRNA platform with rapid development cycle
  • Extensive $3
    Extensive $3.1B R&D engine driving pipeline velocity
  • Cycle upside
    Rapid mRNA adoption across novel therapeutic areas and latent viruses.

§2 Berenscenario

Current operating cash flowOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. is deeply negative (-$2.07B FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. trailing). A liquidity stress test indicates the $2.6B cash buffer provides limited runway against the ongoing $3.1B R&D engine. If pipeline revenues delay by 18 months, significant dilutive capital raises become mandatory, destroying per-share value.

Hoe deze these kan breken

Pipeline Failure

30%· Medium

Late-stage trials for CMV and personalized oncology fail primary endpoints, leaving reliance on a shrinking respiratory market.

FV impact
Target reduced to $41.68 low case
Trigger
Next 12-24 months

Commercial Execution Failure

25%· Medium

RSV vaccine fails to gain meaningful market share against entrenched incumbents due to lower efficacy or pricing.

FV impact
$15-$20 per share downside
Trigger
Next 12 months

Liquidity Crisis

20%· Medium

Sustained $3B+ R&D burn rate rapidly depletes the $2.6B cash buffer, forcing dilutive equity raises at depressed valuations.

FV impact
Downside below $40
Trigger
Next 24-36 months
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Outstanding share count increases by more than 2-3% annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
RSV market share falls below 15% in upcoming respiratory seasons.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
CMV phase 3 trials fail to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
R&D spend remains above $4B while revenues fail to breach $3B.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Trailing net income losses deepen beyond the current -$2.8B level.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Omzet$17.74B$18.88B$6.75B$3.20B$1.92B-42.6%
Brutowinst$15.12B$13.46B$2.06B$1.74B$1.05B-48.6%
Bedrijfsresultaat$13.30B$9.42B$-4.24B$-3.95B$-3.07BNaN%
Nettowinst$12.20B$8.36B$-4.71B$-3.56B$-2.82BNaN%
WPA (verwaterd)$28.29$20.12$-12.33$-9.28—NaN%
EBITDA$13.53B$9.77B$-3.62B$-3.39B$-2.54BNaN%
R&D$1.99B$3.30B$4.85B$4.54B$3.13B+12.0%
VAA$567.0M$1.13B$1.55B$1.17B$1.02B+15.8%

Kwaliteitsscores

OCF / Nettowinst
0.66×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Fail
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
-0.2%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

MRNA scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for MRNA (MRNA) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

MRNA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MRNA looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $53.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $58.3 (range $41.7–$78.8), which implies roughly 9.4% upside to the midpoint.

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