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Direct answer
WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis

WDC WDC fair value $143–$297

WDC
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Geanalyseerd: 2026-05-09Volgende update: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Koers
$480.00
▼ -274.13 (-57.11%)
Fair value
$206
$143–$297
Beoordeling
Verkopen
confidence 57/100
Opwaarts potentieel
-57.1%
upside to fair value
Veiligheidsmarge
$174.99
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisatie
$165.4B
P/E fwd 27.6
Engelse bronNL
Engelse bron wordt weergegeven terwijl we vertalen
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§1 Samenvatting

  • Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
  • Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$480.00Price
Low $142.93
Mid $205.87
High $297.11

WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale in HDD and NAND
    Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
  • Extensive intellectual property portfolio
    Extensive intellectual property portfolio
  • Cycle upside
    Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.

§2 Berenscenario

In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. shrinks double-digits, and free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct..

Hoe deze these kan breken

Cyclical Bust and Oversupply

· High

A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.

FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months

Technological Displacement

· Medium

Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.

FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months

Balance Sheet Impairment

· Low

A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.

FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
Vroege waarschuwingssignalen om te volgen
MetriekHuidigTrigger-drempel
Rising days inventory outstandingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling pricesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellationsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-offMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacityMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Financiële historie

Winst-en-verliesrekening — laatste zes perioden
PostT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Omzet$18.79B$6.26B$6.32B$9.52B-20.3%
Brutowinst$5.87B$1.39B$1.77B$3.69B-14.3%
Bedrijfsresultaat$2.43B$-402.0M$97.0M$2.13B-4.3%
Nettowinst$1.55B$-1.68B$-798.0M$1.86B+6.4%
WPA (verwaterd)$4.75$-5.44$-1.72$5.12+2.5%
EBITDA$3.40B$289.0M$243.0M$1.94B-17.1%
R&D$2.32B$986.0M$950.0M$994.0M-24.6%
VAA$1.12B$807.0M$726.0M$568.0M-20.2%

Kwaliteitsscores

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
0–9 kwaliteitscomposiet
Altman Z-score
12.88
Faillissementsrisico (>3 veilig)
Beneish M-score
-2.36
Risico op winstmanipulatie
OCF / Nettowinst
0.91×
>1 wijst op hoge winstkwaliteit
Drempel boekhoudkwaliteit
Pass
Sector-aangepaste drempel
ROIC
11.5%
Rendement op geïnvesteerd kapitaal
Sectie 3

Numbers analysis

Kasstroom

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitaalallocatie

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Individuele abonnees — vanaf §411 extra secties

Lees de volledige analyse — 11 extra secties.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

WDC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.

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