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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX Lam Research Corporation fair value $183–$237

LRCX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-08Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Cena
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
Wartość godziwa
$183
$183–$237
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 87/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-37.8%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$155.96
buy below · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$295.16Price
FV $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Consensus target of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year consensus revenue and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Okres2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Przychody$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
Zysk brutto$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
Zysk operacyjny$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
Zysk netto$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
EPS (rozwodniony)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
R&D$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
SG&A$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

Wyniki jakości

Wskaźnik Piotroski F
8 / 9
Złożony wynik jakości 0–9
Wskaźnik Altman Z
23.45
Ryzyko upadłości (>3 bezpieczne)
Wskaźnik Beneish M
-2.36
Ryzyko manipulacji wynikami
OCF / Zysk netto
1.15×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
33.8%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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