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ORLY trades against a final fair-value range of $36.27-$74.49, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $36.3, high $74.5, with mid-point at $53.8.
Stock analysis

ORLY fair value $36–$74

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-20Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Cena
$91.92
▼ -38.09 (-41.44%)
Wartość godziwa
$54
$36–$74
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 82/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-41.4%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$45.76
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$76.2B
P/E fwd 25.4
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $54 with high case $74.
  • Implied downside of 41.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$54
Margin of safety
-70.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.92Price
Low $36.27
Mid $53.83
High $74.49

ORLY trades against a final fair-value range of $36.27-$74.49, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Unmatched professional DIFM supply chain
    Unmatched professional DIFM supply chain network
  • Pricing power through scale and
    Pricing power through scale and availability
  • Bull thesis
    The valuation requires a 14.2% implied growth rate, leaving an 8.6% disconnect against fundamental forecasts.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A prolonged period of wage inflation combined with a faster-than-expected structural shift toward lower-maintenance electric vehicles structurally depresses revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. and compresses operating margins, collapsing the historically elevated multiple.

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Severe Multiple Compression

· High

The market abruptly reprices the equity from its current ~25x forward multiple down to historical sector averages near 15x as growth normalizes.

FV impact
-40% to spot price
Trigger
12-24 months

EV Transition Acceleration

· Medium

EV adoption accelerates beyond base assumptions, structurally reducing the size of the addressable aftermarket parts pool and suppressing long-term terminal growth.

FV impact
Limits terminal growth to <2%
Trigger
5-10 years

Margin Degradation

· Medium

Persistent wage inflation and elevated strategic capital expenditures fail to deliver anticipated commercial share gains, breaking the long-term margin profile.

FV impact
Reduces fair value below $40
Trigger
24-36 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Year-over-year contraction in gross margin beyond 50 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to revenue remains above 5% for 24 consecutive months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in DIFM commercial segment growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Comparable store sales miss internal estimate cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SGA expenses grow structurally faster than gross profit.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów
PozycjaT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Okres2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$13.33B$14.41B$15.81B$16.71B$17.78B+7.5%
Zysk brutto$7.02B$7.38B$8.10B$8.55B$9.17B+6.9%
Zysk operacyjny$2.92B$2.95B$3.19B$3.25B$3.46B+4.4%
Zysk netto$2.16B$2.17B$2.35B$2.39B$2.54B+4.1%
EPS (rozwodniony)$2.07$2.23$2.56$2.71$2.97+9.4%
EBITDA$3.25B$3.31B$3.62B$3.73B$3.99B+5.2%
R&D——————
SG&A$4.10B$4.43B$4.92B$5.30B$5.71B+8.6%

Wyniki jakości

OCF / Zysk netto
1.09×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Fail
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
35.5%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Sekcja 3

Numbers analysis

Przepływy pieniężne

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alokacja kapitału

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

ORLY income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of ORLY (ORLY) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

ORLY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ORLY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $91.9 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $53.8 (range $36.3–$74.5), which implies roughly 41.4% downside to the midpoint.

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