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ALNY trades against a final fair-value range of $387.78-$974.55, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $388, high $975, with mid-point at $666.
Stock analysis

ALNY ALNY fair value $388–$975

ALNY
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analisado: 2026-05-13Próxima atualização: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Hyper-growth
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Preço
$292.03
▲ +373.72 (+127.97%)
Valor justo
$666
$388–$975
Classificação
Compra forte
confidence 86/100
Potencial de alta
+128.0%
upside to fair value
Margem de segurança
$565.89
MoS level · 15%
Capitalização de mercado
$39.0B
P/E fwd 21.0
Fonte em inglêsPT
Exibindo a fonte em inglês enquanto traduzimos
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§1 Resumo executivo

  • Composite fair value $666 with high case $975.
  • Implied upside of 128.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Hyper-growth.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$666
Margin of safety
+56.1%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$292.03Price
Low $387.78
Mid $665.75
High $974.55

ALNY trades against a final fair-value range of $387.78-$974.55, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • First-mover advantage and foundational IP
    First-mover advantage and foundational IP in RNA interference.
  • Established commercial infrastructure across global
    Established commercial infrastructure across global rare disease markets.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.

§2 Cenário pessimista

Under an extreme stress test where the prevalent disease pipeline yields zero commercial value, ALNY reverts to a mature rare-disease biotech. This drops terminal multiples to 15x and compresses peak margins to 25%, resulting in our $387 bear caseBear caseThe worst-realistic outcome — what happens if our top three risks materialize together. Used to set the floor of our fair-value range and inform position sizing. floor.

Como esta tese pode falhar

Prevalent Disease Pipeline Failure

25%· Medium

Key prevalent indication readouts, such as hypertension or obesity, fail to show superiority, restricting TAM strictly to rare diseases.

FV impact
Compresses valuation to $387 floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Squeeze from Pricing Pressure

· Medium

IRA and competitive pressure limit peak operating margins below the projected 35%, trapping the firm in a lower-return profile.

FV impact
Drops valuation to $480 FCFF DCF baseline.
Trigger
24-36 months

Genetic Medicine Disruption

· Low

CRISPR and base editing therapies permanently cure indications ALNY currently manages chronically, destroying chronic recurring revenue streams.

FV impact
Terminal growth drops to 0%, valuation below $300.
Trigger
5+ years
Sinais de alerta antecipado para monitorar
MétricaAtualLimite de gatilho
Delay or failure in Zilebesiran clinical readouts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins failing to expand toward the 35% target.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
R&D expanding disproportionately to revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased competitive trial data from gene-editing peers.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected regulatory pushback on novel delivery mechanisms.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Histórico financeiro

Demonstração de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ItemT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Receita$1.04B$1.83B$2.25B$3.71B+53.0%
Lucro bruto$868.6M$1.52B$1.92B$3.03B+51.7%
Lucro operacional$-785.1M$-282.2M$-176.9M$501.6M—
Lucro líquido$-1.13B$-440.2M$-278.2M$313.7M—
LPA (diluído)$-9.30$-3.52$-2.18$2.33—
EBITDA$-926.6M$-258.2M$-178.8M$631.4M—
P&D$883.0M$1.00B$1.13B$1.32B+14.3%
SG&A$770.7M$795.6M$975.5M$1.21B+16.3%

Pontuações de qualidade

OCF / Lucro líquido
1.67×
>1 indica alta qualidade dos lucros
Limite de qualidade contábil
Fail
Limite ajustado ao setor
ROIC
22.0%
Retorno sobre o capital investido
Seção 3

Numbers analysis

Fluxo de caixa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Alocação de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Assinantes individuais — a partir do §411 seções a mais

Leia a análise completa — 11 seções a mais.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Relatório completo para cada ticker coberto
24 meses de arquivo de classificações
Briefings da lista de acompanhamento + alertas de mudança de classificação
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FAQ

ALNY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ALNY looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $292 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $666 (range $388–$975), which implies roughly 128.0% upside to the midpoint.

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